OUE C-REIT will see DPU declining.

Back in 2014, when OUE C-REIT had its IPO, I warned that its gearing was too high and its distribution yield (which was financially engineered to be higher through income support given by the sponsor) was too low given its IPO price of 80c a unit. 

The IPO was a good deal for OUE Limited.

Cheers!

Investing in REITs, we should be prepared for fund raising because they distribute most of their income to their investors. 

When a REIT raises funds, we have to question their reason for doing so. 

If it is to invest in yield accretive assets, it is a good thing. 

Regular readers of my blog would be familiar with the argument that not all rights issues are bad.

See: 
REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?

In this instance, OUE C-REIT is placing out new shares at 64.3c a unit (which is some 20% lower than its IPO price) in order to strengthen its balance sheet. 

So, there will be no additional income from this exercise. 

In fact, DPU will most certainly decline since there will be more units in issue while income stays the same.

The REIT's 4Q 2016 DPU was 1.18c. 

This is a 9.36% reduction from a DPU of 1.26c in 4Q 2015 and this is after contribution from One Raffles Place which was acquired in late 2015 too.

OUE C-REIT has about 1,300,000,000 units in issue. 

Placing out around 233,000,000 units to strengthen its balance sheet will see some savings in interest expense but the REIT's DPU is likely to decline further.

Roughly, we could see interest expense reducing some $5 million per year or $1.25 million per quarter. 

While distributable income will increase by a similar quantum, in percentage terms, we will see about an 8% increase. 

Now, put this against an 18% increase in units in issue and do the math.

Math is not my strongest subject but I think we will see quarterly DPU declining to less than 1.1c which means less than 4.4c for a whole year. 

Just to put this in perspective, at the REIT's IPO, DPU was 5.44c.

Therefore, to get the same distribution yield as what was offered during its IPO, OUE C-REIT's units should trade at a much lower price compared to its IPO price. 

How much lower? 

About 20% lower which means a unit price of 64c.

Of course, we want to remember that without income support for OUE Bayfront, the REIT's DPU would be even lower. 

This income support will expire end of 2018. Coupled with new supply of office space which will worsen the excess supply situation in the CBD, OUE C-REIT is on a slippery slope.

So, demanding an even lower price than 64c a unit before investing in OUE C-REIT is not unreasonable but whether Mr. Market is willing to sell at a lower price is anyone's guess.

For anyone who is interested in reading more of my thoughts on OUE C-REIT and, specifically, why I avoided it, please see the related post below and its comments section.

Related post:
OUE C-REIT (12 Jan 14).

See OUE C-REIT presentation (26 January 2017): HERE.

Every 25bps increase in floating interest rates is expected to reduce distribution by S$0.7 million per annum, or 0.05 cents in DPU

OUE Limited: An asset play that could be cheaper?

I have been eyeing OUE Limited since May this year but I haven't bought its stock. What attracted me is the big discount to NAV (NAV/share is $4.04) although its earnings per share is nothing to shout about. In fact, I estimated the PE ratio to be about 30x when I was crunching some numbers.

So, if the NAV is realistic, to me, OUE Limited is an asset play and with asset plays, the question is really whether the value will be unlocked at some point in the future. There is a likelihood that this would happen as OUE Limited hold stakes in OUE H-Trust (43%) and OUE C-REIT (42.5%).



Regular readers know I scribble my research on scrap paper.

A bug bear for OUE Limited now is Twin Peaks. This 99 year leasehold project (from 2010) is a luxury condominium they are developing near Orchard Boulevard in Singapore. They are having a hard time moving unsold units and of the 462 units available, only 20% or so have managed to find buyers.

The condominium is near completion and I think OUE Limited will then have 2 more years to sell all units or face yearly penalties. Already, they have written down the value of Twin Peaks by $105 million in the face of a challenging environment this year.

At an average selling price of about $3,000 psf and a GFA of about 436,000 sq ft (including balconies), I estimate the value of Twin Peaks to be about $1.3 billion, if fully sold. However, I doubt that it is going to happen without a deep price cut if the big discount given by Bukit Sembawang to sell its completed condominium in Cairnhill recently was anything to go by.

To be fair, however, Twin Peaks is just one part of OUE Limited's portfolio. The company owns many commercial properties and if their values are realistic, OUE Limited could turn out to be a very rewarding asset play for investors in time to come when their values are unlocked. When will it happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Click to enlarge.

Technically, OUE Limited's share price is in a downtrend and it is one that shows no sign of weakening. So, although already trading at a big discount to NAV, I wonder if its share price could sink lower for me to get a dollar for fifty cents.

I wasn't going to blog about OUE Limited until I have initiated a long position, if I do at all. However, reading a blog by Brian Halim gave me a little push to share my thoughts.

Read Brian's blog on OUE Limited: here.

Related posts:
1. OUE H-Trust.
2. OUE C-REIT.

OUE C-REIT.

OUE Limited is spinning off OUE Bayfront in Singapore and Lippo Plaza in Shanghai into a REIT. Seems like OUE Limited is actively recycling capital and trying to catch whatever remaining interest investors might have in a REIT IPO. Just barely half a year ago, they listed OUE Hospitality Trust and I blogged about that here.

OUE C-REIT is the name of the latest offer. It will be priced at 80c a unit and will offer a distribution yield of 6.8% or a DPU of about 5.44c.

I believe that this IPO is a plus for OUE Limited shareholders just like the listing of SPH REIT was good for SPH shareholders. However, I don't think OUE C-REIT is attractive as an investment for the same reason that I thought SPH REIT was not attractive compared to SPH as an investment. You might be interested in that blog post. Read it: here.

I like the fact that OUE Limited has given a commitment to support the REIT by offering assets at a discount to valuation in future. This is something that the Lippo Group has done for LMIR and First REIT as well. After all, it is the same family that is in control of OUE Limited. Yes, OUE Limited is a 55% owned subsidiary of the Lippo Group.

I also like the fact that OUE Limited will retain a 45 to 50% stake in OUE C-REIT which will see their interests more aligned with those of minority unit holders in the REIT since any action taken which might hurt minority unit holders will hurt the sponsor, OUE Limited, most.

Having said this, we have to remember that the sponsor would have reaped most of the benefits from the IPO and the higher distribution yield is a result of income support given by the sponsor. If there were no such support, the distribution yield is actually 5.56%, almost 20% lower.

Over the next couple of years, if the REIT manager is able to fill up all the vacant space in the two initial properties and achieve positive rental reversions in re-leasing, the REIT could deliver a yield of 6.8% without any support.

However, with interest rates set to increase, we could see a heavier debt burden come 2017 when most of the REIT's debt mature. This could wipe out any hope of maintaining the relatively attractive distribution yield now unless unit price of the REIT declined.

The REIT could grow DPU through accretive purchases from its sponsor, of course, but with gearing ratio relatively high at 41% or so now, it would probably have to resort to equity fund raising either in the form of a rights issue or private placements. Unit holders should be prepared for this.

All investments are good at the right price and to invest in OUE C-REIT for income, I would only be interested if it should offer a much higher distribution yield, given the considerations above.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. 2013 full year income from S-REITs.