STI shows relative strength

The STI exhibited relative strength today, declining 0.44%, even as the HSE crashed 2.59%.  Closing at 2,757.14 keeps the STI within its uptrend channel.

Genting SP held its ground amid a high volume sell off which pushed its price to touch an intra day low of 90c.  Closing at 94c, it's only 1c lower than yesterday's close.  The decline's rapid pace has been thwarted for now.  Almost a black hammer, there is a chance of a rebound next week for this counter.  Resistance is at $1.01, provided by the 38.2% Fibo line.  I see a stronger resistance at $1.04, a candlestick support turned resistance.  It is also the 50% Fibo line.  Any such rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure.

AusGroup has a black candle day.  The good news is that it happened with much reduced volume.  MACD has formed a bullish crossover but being still below zero, positive momentum has not returned.  MFI has turned down which shows a slowing of buying momentum.

On the weekly chart, we have an inverted white hammer which suggests a probability of price closing higher next week.  The bugbear?  Volume is very low and this does not make any upmove in price sustainable.  A continuing rebound would allow stale bulls to reduce exposure and is likely to meet with resistance for this reason.  The weekly chart confirms that the target of 64c I have identified for AusGroup in the event of a continuing rebound is plausible.  Any long position in AusGroup taken this week is a punt at best.

With the continuing decline today, Golden Agriculture's price action has formed a lower high at 57c.  However, the pullback is on relatively lower volume which leads to a reasonable suggestion that any decline will not be severe.  Having said this, the lack of buying momentum could see the counter drifting lower.  Critical support remains at 50c thereabouts.  It will most likely hold as the rising 100dMA reaches 49c today.  I continue to like the company's fundamentals and will accumulate at supports.

Genting SP: How low could it go?

I was going through my blog's statistics and found a jump in readership for a post on Genting SP I did in early January.  Of course, that post is outdated by now since it was a TA on the counter.  I looked at Genting SP and discovered the reason for the renewed interest.  The counter is crashing through all supports, including the longer term 200dMA at 97.5c! Intrigued, I decided to take a look at how low this counter might go.

From the plunging OBV, it is quite obvious that distribution is taking place big time.  The counter closed at 95c today, down 7c, on much higher volume.  The MACD showed a sell signal yesterday and this signal was confirmed today.  The MFI is still hovering at the 40% level and is far from being oversold.  All these suggest that there is more downside for this counter and shortists are having a field day here.

38.2% Fibo line at 91c might provide some near term support.  If this breaks, the 23.6% Fibo line is at 81c and the rising 100wMA is at 73.5c.  I rather doubt that price action would descend to the 100wMA in a hurry but one never knows.

I have mentioned before that I do not like the fundamentals of Genting SP and consequently, I was never vested.  However, technically, it is now looking interesting.  I would keep an eye on the MFI and if it enters the oversold territory, it might provide an opportunity to go long.

Genting SP

This is another counter which I found visitors searching for in my blog. Personally, I'm not vested. Here is a TA for those who are interested.

On 31 Dec 09, price action formed a wickless white candle, closing at $1.30 for 2009, a record high at the time. On the first trading day of 2010, price action formed a long legged doji with price closing 1c lower. MACD had a sell signal that day and the price has been declining since then.

Today, the price closed unchanged but the relieve this grants to shareholders might be just an illusion as the candlestick formed today is what is commonly called a gravestone doji. With the MACD about to form a bearish crossover, the MFI declining after forming a lower high which spells reduced buying momentum and a declining OBV which tells the chart reader that distribution has been ongoing, more downside cannot be ruled out.

The 61.8% Fibo line is where the rising 20dMA will be next week at $1.21. That provides initial support followed by support found at the 50% Fibo line which is also a many times tested candlestick resistance at $1.18. Rising 50dMA and 100dMA at close proximity to each other should limit further downside by providing a cluster of supports between $1.10 to $1.15.



Taking a quick peek at the weekly chart reveals a bearish candlestick pattern, a smaller black candle within a larger white candle. The black candle week also happened on the back of higher trading volume. The probability of a decline in price is definitely higher next week. Having said this, even if the price should decline to $1.15 next week, the longer term uptrend remains unbroken for now.

Thoughts on methodology

1. Buying when a stock has broken out of its base formation or long term downtrend in the early stage might be good. This is what pure TA guys would do: wait for confirmation before buying in. I don't do this because I look at FA first and, then, TA. If FA is good, I look for a nice price to enter using TA.

2. Buying a stock when it has broken out of its base formation or long term downtrend and has gone way up is a bad idea as that carries greater risk.

3. Personally, I like to be where the action will be rather than where the action is. I'm not very good with the latter and usually end up losing money. So, looking for early signs of a possible breakout scenario is what I've been doing for months now. I continue to do this and I like stocks of fundamentally good companies which are still in their base formations, either primary or secondary.

4. The stocks which are testing the top of base formations and long term resistance trendlines should ideally have limited downside: TA should show rising MAs closely supporting the prices even as the formation or resistance trendline is being tested. FA should show a robust set of numbers which tells the investor to stay vested with confidence. This is why I'm vested in counters like Saizen REIT, for example. This is why I am not vested in Genting, for example.

Everyone should develop a method that works for him and one that he is comfortable with.