Beware of Chinese New Year goodies!

OMG!



A timely reminder for some, perhaps.

Confession: I have been eating bak kwa and pineapple tarts liberally the entire week! No wonder my pants feel somewhat tighter. Oh dear.

CapitaMalls Asia: Reduced exposure.

Although analysts from Citibank, OCBC and more have given CapitaMalls Asia glowing reports, the long black candle which was formed yesterday on the back of very high volume was ominous.

Breaking immediate support provided by the 20d MA earlier in the week, the bearishness was confirmed as trading started under the 20d MA. It then went on to hit the 50d MA at $2.06 before recovering a bit to close at $2.08.

The question to ask now is whether the 50d MA, the new immediate support, would hold. The MFI has formed a lower high. The MACD has formed a lower high. Negative divergences aplenty and bearing in mind that prices go down a river of hope, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.12 to reduce exposure.

If we look at the weekly chart which provides a longer term picture, the 20w MA is still under $2.00. Currently, it is at $1.93. So, in the event of further high volume selling, we could well see the share price going lower to this longer term support.

The longer term uptrend is still intact but we cannot discount the possibility of a stronger correction in the shorter term. So, as I try to be pragmatic instead of being overly bullish or bearish, I have reduced exposure at what I think is the support turned resistance at $2.12.

LMIR: An unimpressive 4Q 2012.

I don't have much to say other than how unimpressed I am with the results.

DPU: 0.74c (payable on 5 March)

Gearing: 24.5%

NAV/unit: 56c

Occupancy: 93.5%

The management could possibly work on positive rental reversions for leases expiring this year. They could also try to push occupancy closer to 100%. All these would contribute to a higher DPU.

Please, no more acquisitions at least in 2013. For now, efforts should be on improving the performance of the recently acquired malls.

If there should be any acquisitions and it could happen since gearing is at only 24.5%, I hope that the management will be more careful in their efforts.

Careful? Yes, to ensure that DPU does not get watered down again. This was something I talked about in past blog posts.

LMIR really tests one's patience and the management's record leaves much to be desired.

Related post:
LMIR: 3Q 2012.

See slides: here.

Saizen REIT: DPU 0.66c.

With the JPY having declined almost 20% against the S$, I was expecting a reduction in DPU, everything else remaining equal.

However, all else did not remain equal and instead of a reduction in DPU, an increase to 0.66c is what we have.

What did the management do to improve the DPU?

1. Aggressive buying back of units from the open market.

2. Continual buying of new properties in Japan.

3. Lowering finance cost through loan principal repayments.

4. Improved occupancy from 91.0% to 91.7%.

To be fair, the REIT actually deployed its cash reserves with regards to point 3. Whether it is able to continue doing this depends on their level of cash reserves in future.

So, there is still a possibility that we could see future DPU reducing not just because of a weaker JPY but also because future loan principal repayments could be made from the REIT's income.

However, if it should happen, I believe it to be just short term pain as future DPU could be then enhanced when finance cost becomes reduced further, everything else remaining constant.

I am happy with the numbers reported and will be even happier when income distribution takes place on 22 March 2013.

See announcement: here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Still a buy?

Lucky 4D for Chinese New Year 2013.

I always say that luck is an important part of anything we do in life. We might do everything right but if luck is not with us, it is just too bad, isn't it?

Well, with the Year of the Snake just round the corner, let us look forward and embrace all the good fortune that will come our way!

ASSI has churned out 4 numbers: 8709

What to do with these 4 numbers? I don't know. What do you think?

Here is wishing all Chinese readers

a very happy and prosperous Chinese New Year!

Sell when it is HOT!

I was on the phone with a friend whom I have not seen in many years. He was wondering if he could visit me during the Chinese New Year holidays, remembering belatedly that I moved out to stay on my own a few years ago.

When I told him that I sold my place more than a year ago and moved back to stay with my parents, he was incredulous.

"Why did you sell? Real estate in that area is really HOT now!"

His statement reminded me of what a bank officer asked me many years ago when I was at the bank to sell my unit trusts which went up 40% in value. Lucky me.

"Why are you selling now? The Chinese stock market is doing so well now and you are making money!"

To me, it is quite simple. Shouldn't I sell when it is hot and when I am making money? Is it better to sell when it turns cold and when I cannot make any money?

Related post:
More cooling measures on the way?

New retail and F&B experience!

Wondering where to go with your family and friends during this Chinese New Year long weekend?

There is a new retail and F&B experience in Singapore!

It is the perfect magical setting for lovers to romance, families to celebrate, and special occasions to be remembered!

From 1 – 28 February 2013, spend a minimum of $50.00 in a single receipt and be one of 3 lucky winners to be pampered with a 3D2N stay at W Singapore – Sentosa Cove hotel!

So, where is this place? Find out more: here.

Consumers in Singapore to spend less in 2013.

I keep hearing how most businesses found 2012 more difficult compared to 2011. I am in agreement. Now, to dampen spirits further, if a report by Nielsen's is correct, 2013 could be even tougher.

In a survey carried out, it seems that consumers in Singapore are cutting back on discretionary spending in 2013. The top 3 areas of cut backs:

1. New clothes (55%)
2. More expensive grocery (47%)
3. Utilities (47%)

If we think that it is probably due to a lack of job security or the rising cost of living in Singapore that is causing consumers here to cut back, we are not wrong.

However, it was also found that consumers will remain cautious in their household expenses even if there should be an improvement in the economy. I believe that this hints at a general feeling of pessimism and a distrust of the economy that runs deeper than what we might believe to be the case.

To cut back on consumption is an important step in individual wealth building efforts for ordinary people but I do not think that wealth building was on the minds of most of the respondents in the survey. Why? In the same survey, the respondents also revealed that they would be cutting back on investments too.

The business of naming.

From time to time, I see very unfortunate choices in names whether for people or things.

"Hi Fish, I'm Noodle. Would you like to go out on a date. I know this place that sells very good Yu Pian Mi Fen (Sliced fish noodle)."

The Yu Pian Mi Fen did its magic. Fish and Noodle got married and had four children too (much to the government's delight).

"These are our handsome boys, Barracuda and Sturgeon. These are our beautiful girls, Fettucini and Ravioli..."

Choice of brand names, especially, could make or break a business.

"Cremate? Aiyoh! Choy!!!! So inauspicious!"

"Oh, it's Caremate...."

Folding Smart Cover for iPad mini - Look at the price!

If you have an iPad mini, check this out:

The price is unbelievable: US$ 13.27 each. Free shipping!

Shop online at:

 and search under New Arrivals.

You can't miss it!

Related post:
Save money with low prices and free shipping globally.

Marco Polo Marine: Taking reference from trendlines.

I read somewhere before that a trader in the USA made a lot of money over the years using only trendlines in his technical analysis. Yes, only trendlines. Nothing else.

This hints at the importance of trendlines and how they have an indispensable role in anyone's charting efforts. After all, don't we hear people saying stuff like "the trend is our friend" and "don't go against the trend"? The word "trend" keeps popping up in technical analysis.

So, we must know how to recognise trends if we want to improve our chances of success trading in the stock market.

If we look at Marco Polo Marine, it is obvious that the downtrend was broken towards the end of 2012  and it is now on an uptrend.

Drawing trendlines, we would see that its current uptrend is in two parts: an earlier trendline with a gentler gradient which I have labelled "T2" and a later trendline with a steeper gradient which I have labelled "T1".

Drawing these trendlines, we know where are the price supports which must hold for the uptrend to remain intact. Breaking these supports would possibly be a sell signal for some. Short sellers could also come in to push the share price down further.

For others, it would represent opportunities to load up at cheaper valuations but we want to load up closer to supports. Well, at least for me, I think that buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go.

Today, my overnight buy order at 41c was filled.

Related posts:
1. Marco Polo Marine: Negative divergences.
2. Recommended books for TA.

Win a free trip to the Philippines!

Want to win free flights, hotel stays and US$ 2,000 travel allowance to the Philippines?

If you do, find out how you could at: Cebu Pacific!

Enhanced Incomeshield (H&S) for my mom.

When I signed up for Incomeshield in 1999, my mom signed up for it too, convinced of the benefits. I tried to get my dad to sign up for it too but he didn't and now it is too late because of his many ailments. He only has basic Medishield.

I upgraded to Enhanced Incomeshield with an Assist Rider when it became available a few years ago. So, it means that I only have to pay 10% of my total medical bills if I were to be hospitalised and this 10% has an annual cap of $3,000 in my case. So, if my hospitalisation and related bills were to total more than $30,000 in any year, I would still pay a maximum of only $3,000.







Recently, I convinced my mom to upgrade her basic Incomeshield to the same as what I have. It took me a while to convince her because of the cost involved.

As we grow older, the premium increases and she was concerned that she would end up having to pay more than $2,000 a year for the upgrade. I told her that I was not worried about the cost. I was more worried that NTUC Income might not approve the upgrade.

As my paternal grandmother is now undergoing long term treatment, I used her as an example. She only had basic Medishield and it expired when she turned 80. Her medical bills run easily into the tens of thousands of dollars a year. Even with basic Medishield, she depleted my father's Medisave account and more.

I told my mom that the annual premium is money well spent and that I would pay on her behalf if need be. After all, without a good hospitalisation and surgery plan, I could possibly be paying for her future hospitalisation bills.







My mom was not happy with what I said. Oh, yes, she is quite "pantang" (which means "superstitious" in local lingo for those who don't know).

Well, when I am convinced about something, I am relentless in pursuing the course. My mom actually complained that I was nagging! Finally, she gave in and I brought her to NTUC Income Centre to do the necessary.

I am pleased to say that her upgrade has recently been approved with coverage excluding a pre-existing condition. Now, at least, I only have to worry about paying for my dad's future medical bills because basic Medishield is not as good when it comes to cost sharing.

I would urge everyone to consider not only getting a good lifetime hospitalisation and surgery (H&S) plan for ourselves but also for our parents, if they do not have one already. The peace of mind that comes with this is priceless.







I am not doing this to advertise for NTUC Income. It just so happens that I have been with them for a long time and I know this product. You should definitely shop around and compare the different products available. If you have not done this, do it soon. Do it today, if you can.

Just make sure it is a lifetime plan and make sure to buy a rider to cover the deductibles which leaves only the co-insurance payable by us in the event of a claim. We can use the money in our Medisave account to help pay the premium for the plan but not the cost of the rider.

I hope no one is "pantang" about me talking about something like this a few days before the Chinese New Year.

Related posts:
1. Millionaire or not, plan for retirement.
2. Eldershield.
3. What should a Singaporean have by age 35?

ASSI is too slow or so they say.

Someone told me that my blog takes forever to load. So, being somewhat concerned that this could be the case for more than just one person, I decided to read up on the topic.

I am not a savvy person when it comes to IT but Google makes it easy for people like me. So, why is a fast loading speed important?

Why do people want to go everywhere in a hurry?
Take it slow. Take in the sights.

Google says "The speed at which your blog loads is critical to attracting more readers to your blog. If your blog takes a long time to load, many readers may leave your blog before they have the chance to read it." This makes sense. We humans are an impatient lot. We want instant gratification!

Next, I used PageSpeed to do a health check for ASSI. Here is the link: PageSpeed.

Click on "Analyse your site online" and enter the blog's URL. Easy.

The analysis will give the blog a score. A higher score indicates little room for improvement. ASSI scored 93 out of 100. Yeah!

However, the PageSpeed Score does not measure the time it takes for a page to load. Oh...

OK, you will love this website I found that will tell you exactly how long it takes for a webpage to load. Here is the link: Stopwatch!

ASSI today took 6.8 seconds to load. That is not too bad, I feel, especially when we take into consideration that I embedded two videos today. Without the videos, the loading speed should be faster.

I think I shall suggest to the complainant to get a faster internet connection. (wink)

Related post:
Bloggy Award
(I dug out this really old blog post dated 9 January 2010. I was so fresh to blogosphere then.)

Volkswagen New Golf 7 2013.

A friend told me about this one. Really amusing:



Already a very successful auto company, I believe Volkswagen is set to make even more money this year. Having cute ads like this one doesn't hurt.

Volkswagen is likely to overtake GM and Toyota in 2014 with sales exceeding 9.4 million vehicles to become the world’s No. 1 automaker!
Source: Bloomberg, 28 December 2012.

Related post:
A new car for S$75,000?