A new year and a new decade. Strategy for 2010.

Firstly, Happy New Year! It's the beginning of a new year and a new decade. Many countries in the world still have huge debts to deal with but let's hope things will be better the next 10 years.

This is extracted from the latest issue of NEWSWEEK magazine:

The American goverment may owe China US$799 billion but when it comes to foreign debt per capita, the US is relatively prudent. Which nationality has the highest foreign debt per capita?

Greeks US$ 27,746
Belgians US$ 27,023
Austrians US$ 26,502
Irish US$ 24,247
Norwegians US$ 21,402
Italians US$ 21,089
Dutch US$ 20,412
French US$ 18,946
Germans US$ 15,574
Finns US$ 13,617
Americans US$ 11,094
Danes US$ 9,410
Spaniards US$ 8,715
Swedes US$ 7,058
Brits US$ 6,526

Now, this puts things in perspective. Many countries are still not out of the woods. This gives the idea that we will see the global economy going into a tailspin again in the next 2 or 3 years greater credence. We are experiencing a cyclical bull in a secular bear market and not the beginnings of a secular bull market.

My strategy for 2010?

1. Gold
I am keeping an eye on the price of gold. If it goes closer to the psychologically important support level of US$1,000 an ounce, I will buy more physical gold as a long term hedge against inflation. Gold also acts as an insurance for my other investments. I buy physical gold from UOB.

2. Crude oil
I believe that demand for crude oil will continue to strengthen through 2010. However, it will not go up in a straight line. It will climb a wall of worries and we will have plenty of worries in 2010, no doubt. I would trade counters which are leveraged to the price of crude palm oil (CPO) as a proxy to the price movement of crude oil. I like Golden Agriculture.

3. Japan
As a contrarian play, Japan might outperform after almost two decades being in the doldrums. I like the Japanese Yen. I like Japanese real estate. I like Saizen REIT.

4. Indonesia
A strong emerging market, Indonesia did not suffer negative growth in 2009. I like LMIR and First REIT for the low gearings and the high yields.

5. Healthcare
There is greater demand for quality healthcare with increasing affluence and an ageing population in Singapore. I choose Healthway Medical.

6. Tourism
2010 will be a year where tourist arrivals balloon in Singapore with the completion of the two integrated resorts (IRs). Looking for value and high yield, I like Suntec REIT and SPH.

There are many other counters which will do well in 2010 but I will concentrate on these I've highlighted. The choices here are based on FA. Remember to use TA to identify entry and exit prices. Good luck in 2010.

31 Dec 09: Healthway Medical

At half day, Healthway Medical's trade volume exceeded yesterday's full day volume! We have a breakout on high volume! The resistance level at 13c has been taken out with a vengeance. Price touched a high of 14c before closing at 13.5c. If we have confirmation in the next session, a retest of 14.5c, the top of the earlier cup pattern is at hand.

MACD has risen strongly above zero. MFI did a sharp about-turn, forming a higher low in the process. OBV continues to rise, indicating continuing accumulation. A retest of 14.5c seems very likely. If 14.5c is taken out, I see an intermediate target of 17c, followed by an eventual price target of 19.5c!
30 Dec 09: Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture