AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stronger numbers.

The REIT's properties have been revalued higher year on year by 4% as at 31 March 2010. This means NAV per unit improves by 1c. See announcement here.

The REIT's unaudited financial results for the financial year ended 31 March 2011 will be released on 19 April 2011. See announcement here.

I am expecting the following:
DPU: 0.215c
NAV per unit: 27c.
Gearing: 32%.

DPU of 0.215c is, of course, due to the advance distribution of 0.285c earlier last month to exclude placement shares from income distribution for the period prior to the placement exercise.

NAV per unit, I have left unchanged despite the 4% higher property valuation because the REIT did dispose of Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse in Tokyo last month.

Gearing level is lower at 32% because funds from the same said divestment will be used to repay debt.

If my estimates are accurate enough, the REIT is currently trading at a 24% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of 9.76% (annualised DPU of 2c). A 32% gearing level is pretty safe considering the fact that property prices seem to be rising. There is also the fact that debts were refinanced last year at a much lower interest rate of 2.16% and the loans are not due for another two years at least.

I continue to like this REIT's fundamentals and would accumulate on any weakness.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Insights.
AIMS AMP Capital Indsutrial REIT: Lower gearing.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia tested support turned resistance at $1.83 for the first time today. The fact that its share price pulled back and closed at $1.81 shows the existence of strong selling pressure closer to and at $1.83. The fact that this happened on much higher volume shows some weakness in the upward movement today. My sell order at $1.83 was not done.

The MFI, a measure of demand, has flattened despite the higher price and volume while the RSI has flattened in overbought territory. OBV, however, is rising which suggests ongoing accumulation. What are the possible scenarios now?

Given the fact that the MFI and RSI are near overbought and overbought, respectively, upside could be limited from here. $1.83 remains the immediate resistance while further upside could be capped at $1.88 (78.6% Fibo fan line and 100dMA) in the event that $1.83 is overcome.

Downside? Immediate support is at $1.80 although this could be a weak support. Stronger support could be found at $1.78, a many times tested resistance which coincides with trendline support as well. If this were to go, the uptrend would have been compromised and the next support would be at $1.72.

I have divested some at $1.78 and have put in a sell order at $1.83 for tomorrow. If price were to weaken to $1.72, I could buy in again. TA is never about certainty. It is about probability and we should plan accordingly. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Partial divestment at $1.78.