Japan's recovery accelerating, central bank says.

Exports driving Japan's economic recovery into higher gear, central bank says.

Tomoko A. Hosaka, Associated Press Writer, On Friday April 30, 2010, 5:07 am EDT

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan received a brighter assessment of its economic future Friday, with a key central bank report highlighting an accelerating recovery and easing price declines.

In its semiannual outlook, the Bank of Japan predicted that the world's second biggest economy would see faster growth this fiscal year, which began April 1, and a possible end to deflation within two years. Gross domestic product will probably expand 1.8 percent this year, the central bank said, better than its previous forecast of 1.3 percent.

The report credited robust growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, for fueling Japanese exports and production. Stock prices and corporate profits are up. That should boost capital expenditures and eventually lead to more jobs, higher wages and stronger domestic demand.

Read full article here.

Charts in brief: 30 April 10.

STI rises 0.5% to 2,974.61 at closing
Friday, 30 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Closing at $2.19 on high volume on a white candle day confirmed a reversal.  The MACD continues moving upwards towards the signal line and could form a bullish crossover if the momentum continues.  MFI has turned up sharply but is still in the oversold region.  OBV has turned up sharply indicating increased accumulation.  Immediate resistance is at $2.23 and $2.27.

AIMS AMP Capital Ind REIT: This is the second session in a row where price closed at 23c.  The 50dMA is crossing 100dMA to form a golden cross. MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  MFI continues to rise but is not overbought.  OBV continues to climb upwards in a steplike fashion. This counter is unlikely to rocket upwards in price but it is a steady performer with limited downside.

Golden Agriculture: Another black candle day on heavier volume, with price closing unchanged. MACD is still in decline while the MFI and OBV are flattish. This counter seems to be stuck in a slow drift downwards and it has been forming lower lows.

Courage Marine: Buying momentum is still on the retreat as the MACD continues to pull away from the signal line on the downside. MFI continues its decline. However, OBV has turned up which probably resulted in today's white candle. Volatility has reduced somewhat and the Bollinger bands are beginning to narrow.  22c has been established as the immediate support.

Saizen REIT: Very high volume sell down today as units traded at only one price, 16.5c. Technically, things look bearish.  The MACD continues to decline towards zero.  MFI has entered the oversold region.  OBV has gone below what I identified as a critical support. Momentum oscillators have not been so bearish in a while.

Although the uptrend is intact, continuing sell down might see the price pushed to as low as 15.5c, a support provided by the rising 200dMA. It seems that the declining 100wMA is creating a tempest.

Of course, Saizen REIT is announcing its results on 12 May. Would that provide a positive catalyst for price to leapfrog the 100wMA? We will just have to wait and see.


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Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

Tea with AK71: A piece of cake?

A couple of weeks ago, someone told me that he was thinking of putting some of his savings in the stock market.  He asked me how much should he put in. I asked him how much was he willing to lose. That stumped him and he looked puzzled. He went quiet and then, with that same puzzled look, asked me if I was not going to help him make money. Woah! Stop right there.  I decided to give him a history lesson there and then.  Question: Excuse me, are you an investor?

No one should ever enter the stock market thinking that he would only make money.  That must be the grandest delusion ever.  Don't ever get into the stock market if one thinks of only making a lot of money and not losing some (or a lot, for that matter). 

Entering the stock market is just like entering a relationship.  Don't ever get into one if one thinks that every relationship will have a nice "happily ever after" fairy tale ending.  There will be rough patches.  There will be sleepless nights.  There will be headaches.  However, they are part and parcel of the learning process and they, believe it or not, enrich our life experience, well, in a perverse way, whether or not the relationship works out in the end.

We can't have our cake and eat it and well should we know this. Right, a spot of tea and, perhaps, some cake, anyone?

Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

STI climbs 0.9% to 2,959.01 at closing
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: On 26 April, I said that "when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal".  The MACD has flattened today while the signal line continues to fall.  A white hammer is formed today.  This is the third reversal signal in a row. It is also the first day that price action has detached from the lower Bollinger band. Even if a reversal does not happen, this suggests that the downward momentum is weakening.  The stochastics continues to rise within the oversold region while the MFI pushes deeper into the oversold region. Mixed signals are more positive than negative in a downtrend. Immediate resistance are at $2.23 and $2.27.

Golden Agriculture: A bearish candlestick setup today as the black candle travelled half the distance down the previous day's white candle. All momentum oscillators are down.  OBV is also down. Saving grace? Reduced volume. Immediate resistance is now provided by the 20dMA at 60.5c while immediate support is still at 57.5c. Weakness is very much obvious and the counter might move to test supports before moving higher.

Global Palm Resources off 6.5% on SGX debut
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: A strong Baltic Dry Index (BDI) might be the reason for a levitation act here plus the fact that the counter is trading CD. The BDI is up almost 4% today at 3,329.  This is a boon to Courage Marine, for sure. Counter closed at 22c today, the support provided by the 20dMA.

Even though I really like the fundamentals and I like this company, the technicals are a tad weak and I would not chase it. Momentum oscillators are down.  The MACD continues to pull downwards away from the signal line. The OBV has turned down for two sessions in a row.

However, for someone who is looking for exposure to the counter, the current price should have limited downside with a cluster of supports at 20.5c to 21.5c. Any entry at this level should be considered a hedge. I won't break the piggy bank.

Mercator Lines charters out 2 vessels
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: A dramatic reversal today after spotting five reversal signals in a row: black hammer, black spinning top, doji, white hammer, white hammer.  This is a good example of how a counter might have multiple reversal signals before the reversal is confirmed in the usual way.

Extremely high volume up day as two resistance levels were blown away. Next resistance levels are at 97c and $1.02. Momentum oscillators have all turned up strongly. Chances of a follow through are good. Not vested.

Marina Bay Sands resort had 36,000 visitors in first 24 hours
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

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Charts in brief: 28 April 10.