FSL Trust: That sinking feeling.

FSL Trust's price is being battered for losing a big part of a 15% income from a long term charter.  If we think about it, proportionally, its unit price should not lose more than 15% as well. However, from a price of about 60c just before the news was made known, it has plunged to close at 44.5c today. At one point, it reached a low of 42.5c today.

MFI is in oversold territory.  OBV is still declining. However, the price decline in the last 13 sessions show clearly a pattern of low volume pullback.  The fundamentals notwithstanding, I sense an opportunity.  I would be very tempted to buy some at the 138.2% Fibo line which approximates 41.5c.  If the price should go as low as the 150% Fibo line which approximates 39c, I would probably get some.

Related post:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?

Healthway Medical: Price levels to consider.

Selling most of my remaining shares in Healthway Medical at 15.5c resistance on 11 May instead of waiting to collect the 0.12c dividend turned out very well. Heatlhway Medical closed lower at 14c today. This is the support provided by the rising 200dMA which seems in danger of breaking as more than 20m shares were sold down at 14c today.

The MACD is still falling in negative territory.  MFI has been forming lower highs and OBV has been declining.  The technicals suggest continuing weakness. 

If the 200dMA is compromised, the longer term uptrend is in danger.  The previous bottom was at 13.5c.  This should provide some support.  If that gives, the candlestick resistance at 12.5c should become support.  12.5c was the resistance in a trading range which lasted for months and frustrated many. Price finally broke out of that trading range in the new year.  So, to me, 12.5c should be a strong support.  However, if price should fall back into that range, the support in the trading range is at 11c.

Many people remember the round number 10 and it was at 10c that I first started buying shares of Healthway Medical in mid 2009.  Will the price of Healthway Medical reach 10c again sometime this year? Personally, I rather doubt it but one never knows.  We can only wait and see.

Good luck to all who are still vested and good luck to those who would like to accumulate at lower prices.  Obviously, I am sitting on the fence.

Related posts:
Healthway Medical: A weak first quarter.
Charts in brief: 11 May 10.
Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

Charts in brief: 19 May 10.

The STI declined to test and break 2,780 today. We will have to see if it bounces back to close above 2,780 tomorrow or if it would continue its downward path.  If it continues to decline, there is potentially much room to fall.  I am still staying cautious and waiting to see some signs of a stronger support holding before adding to my positions.

STI declines 2.5% to 2,774.54 at closing
Wednesday, 19 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Closing at $2.10 after gapping down today confirmed a lower high for this counter.  The downtrend is intact.  I am 100% divested. See how the volume expanded on a down day? Sell signal seen on the MACD. MFI and OBV have both turned down. More likely than not, this counter is continuing its downtrend.

SPH: Price continues moving downwards towards the 200dMA at $3.70.  If tested, will it hold? We can only wait and see.

Given the current bearish atmosphere in the global stock markets, it pays to take a longer term view in our investments.  To this end, take a look at the weekly charts.  A stronger support for SPH is actually at $3.60, where we find the rising 50wMA.

LMIR: 47c support has been taken out.  With price closing at 45c today, I drew Fibo lines to find the next supports.  It appears that 44c is only a minor support as suggested by candlesticks.  If the decline continues, next major support is at 42c. As seen in the weekly chart drawn yesterday, 41c is support provided by the 100wMA but as this MA is still declining, if conditions are bearish enough, we might see 40c tested.

I am staying sidelined and will wait for the dust to settle.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 18 May 10.

Charts in brief: 18 May 10.

Nice little up day for the STI. I am staying defensive and waiting to see if the support at 2,780 holds. Global stock markets' almost relentless climb upwards is experiencing a few much overdue stumbles and falls. Before the markets go higher, they could go lower.

Earnings upcycle not enough to lift STI, says CIMB
Tuesday, 18 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Another up day as price closed at $2.16.  MACD continues rising in negative territory.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  OBV is rising.  However, the negative divergence between volume and price movement is glaring.  As price rises, volume decreases.  The volume should ideally increase in order to have a sustainable move up in price.

$2.19, the bottom of the base formation in February is likely to be a strong resistance. If we use the exponential 50dMA, we see something very interesting. It is at $2.19.

The Exponential MA, or EMA for short, has more weight given to more recent data. This is useful when we want to gain some insight into shorter term psyche of market participants as more recent price movements are fresher in their collective memories. Will CapitaMalls Asia test $2.19? That, I do not know but I know I would be 100% divested if it does as the technicals favour further weakness.  I believe that short sellers would find $2.19 almost irresistable.

SPH: On Monday, it closed for first time in a long time below the 100dMA. Today, the attempt to recapture the 100dMA support failed. I would wait to see if the 200dMA is tested and if it holds in such an instance. The 200dMA is currently at $3.70.  If the 200dMA holds, I might buy some.

LMIR: I am taking a longer term view with this counter. I continue to like its high yield and low gearing. In the shorter term, there is no question that it is bearish even though the weakness is on relatively low volume. I am looking at its weekly chart to gain insights into its longer term technicals.

It would seem that 47c is an important support provided by candlesticks and the rising 50wMA. OBV is more or less static which, to me, suggests that most unit holders are long term investors. The MFI has been forming lower highs and is currently at 50% which could act as support. Would I buy at 47c? As a hedge, perhaps.  I won't throw in the kitchen sink because the lower highs in price since 11 January this year give me a feeling of unease. 44c, anyone?

Saizen REIT: The recent report by Saizen REIT's manager seems to have reassured investors and although we are not seeing any enthusiastic buying up, we are not seeing any desperate selling either. Fundamentally, there is increasing recognition that this REIT is heavily undervalued.

I mentioned before that the descending 100wMA is exerting some downward force on the price of this REIT and it was at 17c last week.  This week, it is lower and approaching 16.5c.  If we look at the weekly chart, we see that the resistance provided by the100wMA has been challenged.  This happened yesterday. 

The rising 20dMA and 50dMA should inevitably form golden crosses with the descending 100wMA. Fibo line projections show 150% at 20.5c and 161.8% at 21c.  These would be my immediate targets in a breakout scenario.

Related posts:
SPH: Another black candle day.
LMIR: 1Q 2010 results.
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.