Genting SP: A strong rebound.

STI increases 1.1% to 3,130.90 at closing. The measure advanced 1.2% this week, its sixth weekly gain. Three stocks rose for each that fell on the 30-member gauge.
Friday, 01 October 2010

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Together with the STI's stellar performance, Genting SP staged a strong rebound.  The MACD histogram turned green, a buy signal but the rise in price was not accompanied by heavy volume.  This suggests that price rebounded on short covering and that it rose because of a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.

This rebound was probably a good chance for bulls to reduce exposure. Personally, I feel that a resumption of a downward movement towards the 50dMA is likely and that further upside could be capped by the 38.2% Fibo line at $2.05. However, with an upgrade by OCBC, I wonder which way it would go.  It is a grand tug of war between research houses.

Genting up on short-covering, OCBC upgrade
Friday, 01 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: 56c support.

Golden Agriculture seems to have found support at 56c. As the falling MACD made contact with zero, the histogram turned green: a buy signal.  Today's white candle is on the back of relatively low volume and that to me is not convincing of a recovery. However, this does not mean that price could not enjoy a respite and rebound.  If a rebound takes place, it would confirm the buy signal on the MACD histogram but could meet with immediate resistance at 57.5c.

Well, 56c is only one bid shy of 55.5c which is where we find the rising 200dMA which coincides with the uptrend support line.  This is, therefore, likely to be a rather strong support.  So, buying at 56c for anyone who would like to have a stake in Golden Agriculture seems fairly safe.  Personally, I am waiting for the dust to settle.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Breaking support.

Courage Marine: Lengthy consolidation.

A friend asked me what I think of Courage Marine and I told him I like its numbers and I like how the BDI seems to have stabilised at $2,500 thereabouts.  I feel that Courage Marine shouldn't have bad news with regards to earnings. The main reason why I have not really talked about Courage Marine very much recently is the lack of anything newsworthy.

Courage Marine's share price seems to be going through a lengthy consolidation period.  Nothing exciting either way. OBV is flat which indicates a lack of any distribution or accumulation activities. Seems like status quo to me. The MFI still suggests the presence of demand while the RSI has bounced off the 50% mark which suggests some buying momentum is present.

The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs have all merged at 19c.  19c could either become a strong support or a strong resistance in such a case. Which way would it go? Well, we have a buy signal on the MACD histogram and with the MFI and OBV more positive than negative, I would hazard a guess: up. In such an instance, I see resistance at 20c, 21c and 23c.  Good luck to my friend and fellow shareholders.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Awakening.

Genting SP: An orderly retreat.

No one likes to see his investment plunging in value but anyone who bought some Genting SP's shares towards the end of its run up to $2.18 could be nursing a huge paper loss now, if he did not cut his losses.

On 28 Sep, I mentioned that "we could see more selling pressure in the near term.  If $1.93 gives way, I see the next support level at $1.84, give or take a cent. Strong support should be provided by the rising 50dMA which is currently at $1.60." Today, price action formed a low at $1.85, just a cent shy of $1.84, before closing at $1.86.  That >5m shares were sold down at $1.86 post closing at 5.05pm suggests more downside to come.

The momentum oscillators are firmly downward moving and the OBV shows clear distribution underway.  It would seem that the 50dMA would be called upon as support in due course. What price would that be at?  If I were to hazard a guess, it could be close to $1.70 next week.  That is where we find the lower Bollinger band and it also seems like a natural candlestick support.  Of course, a nice round number is mostly psychologically important.

Do I expect any panic selling? That's a tough one to answer but looking at the volume of trade as the stock was sold down this week, it looks like an orderly retreat to me.  No spike in trade volume.  So, this is perhaps a consolation for shareholders.

Related post:
Genting SP: CEO pares stake.

Genting Singapore off 1.1%; Down 12.8% since peak.
Besides current broad market pullback, shares also bogged down by Macquarie's downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with lower target of $1.75 vs $2.10, citing market's "overly optimistic growth assumptions".

Thursday, 30 September 2010

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