First REIT: Dragonfly doji at 71c.

The bulllish harami identified on 14 Dec delivered most sportingly as I said then, "It is my personal belief that the 200dMA support at 67c has been recaptured.  Further upward movement in price would find immediate resistance at 68.5c.  This will be followed by 70c and 71c. In due course, if these resistance levels were cleared, the counter could cover the gap at 73.5c. There are some who are still waiting to see how low the price could fall before buying in. Their hands could be forced in the next two days if price continues to be resilient and this would contribute to a further strengthening in price."

First REIT's trading volume has reduced markedly as price rose higher in recent sessions. Today, price closed at 71c, forming a dragonfly doji, suggesting a lack of selling pressure as price rose on relatively low volume.

The OBV formed a sharp V since the formation of the bullish harami candlestick pattern. It has continued rising but more gently so. Accumulation continues. The MACD is poised to form a bullish crossover with the signal line, although in negative territory. Could this upmove in price be just a rebound?

I am of the opinion that it is more a recovery from a deeply oversold condition. Valuation is now moving towards fairer levels. In the days ahead, we could see a gradual rise in price and it could cover the gap at 73.5c. A retest of 75c, the adjusted historical high would be next in line.

Not so long ago, during the days of mad selling down which saw the rights touched a low of 16c and the mother shares touching a low of 66c, what was presented to us was a window period of a few days to load up on the cheap.

Only with strong confidence that comes from knowing the sound fundamentals of the REIT would we dare to buy more and I said as much when asked what would I do then. Friends sent SMS, readers left comments and sent emails. To all, I said we should recognise the window of opportunity, ignore the noise and buy more which I did.

"Am I not worried whether the price would decline further? No. Why should I worry? I cannot do anything to influence the price movement of the REIT. If the market is willing to sell a good thing to me at a lower price, I would buy. It's simple. So, would I buy again if the price declines further. Yes, I would." 13 Dec 10.

I could be sticking my neck out by saying this but congratulations to all who conquered their fears and held their positions. In my opinion, the fair value for First REIT remains at 80c /unit.

Related posts:
First REIT: Quiet confidence.
First REIT: XR and fair value.

FSL Trust: Closing the gap soon?

On 17 Dec, I mentioned that "The MACD is about to cross into positive territory. OBV suggests continuing accumulation. MFI and RSI are both rising, suggesting strengthening demand and buying momentum."

The resistance provided by the 50dMA at 45c was taken out today as price closed at 45.5c. With the MACD rising into positive territory, we could indeed see the gap closed at 46c next. Eventual target remains at 47c.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Testing 45c resistance.

Healthway Medical: Closed the gap at 15.5c.

On 13 Dec, I divested my trading position in Healthway Medical at 17c, saying that "I expected 17c to be a strong resistance as it is where we find the merged 100d and 200d MAs as well as the downtrend resistance line.  So, a trading position entered on 22 Nov last month at 15.5c was divested at 17c today." and on 14 Dec, I mentioned that "Price could first retreat to 16c, a many times tested resistance and now possible support, before closing the gap at 15.5c."

Healthway Medical closed the gap today at 15.5c. Am I expecting more downside? Share price is pulling back from almost overbought conditions and I do not expect any huge downward movement. Notice that the decline in share price has been on the back of reducing volume. This is good news for the bulls. Also notice that the uptrend in the MFI and RSI are still intact. However, the charts suggest the possibility of both indices to retest their supports. This could mean a reduction in price or volume or both in the near future. A successful retest of supports could lead to another upward movement in price.

Immediate support at 15.5c.  This is followed by 15c and 14.5c.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Still at resistance.

SPH: Breaking the 100dMA.

A reader recently asked me at what price should he buy more shares of SPH? Well, I always like to buy on weakness. Today, SPH closed at $3.90.  This was after breaking the support provided by the 100dMA at $3.95 last Friday.

Although the MACD is in decline, the MFI suggests that there is some support as the counter gets sold down. Of course, this could change quickly.  In such an instance, using Fibo lines, we see the next support at $3.86. However, the 138.2% Fibo line at $3.83 should be a stronger support being one of the three golden ratios. This is followed by $3.81 and $3.79.  I could add to my position then.