Raffles Education: Testing support at 30c.

On 31 January, I mentioned "For anyone who wants to go long on this counter, being patient and waiting to buy some at supports in an uptrend is a good idea. I never like chasing. I rather like waiting for things to come to me."

On 7 Feb, Kim Eng upgraded Raffles Education to a BUY with a target price of 40c as the management affirms its plan to venture into property development in China. Raffles Education is leveraging on its low land cost when it acquired OUC back in October 2007. Raffles Education has obtained approval from relevant authorities to convert about 280,000 sqm of land area in OUC for residential development. It is currently in talks with different interested parties to form a joint venture to co‐develop the site. Based on current achievable selling price, management is confident of generating substantial returns.

Read article here.

The upgrade by Kim Eng might have given the share price of the counter a shot in the arm as a white candle was formed that very day. However, price action has turned bearish since, especially with China's move to up interest rates which could lead to a lower investment demand for real estate in the country.
Read blog post on China's interest rate hike here.

Technically, the massive black candlesticks in the last two sessions were on the back of heavier volumes. The MACD has formed a lower high and is declining under the signal line. A correction is clearly underway. OBV shows that distribution is ongoing while the MFI shows a decline in demand with a lower high.

Looking at the weekly chart, it becomes clearer why Raffles Education's share price is having a hard time clearing 32c. That is where we find the 50wEMA. If we connect the lows from the week of 20 Dec, we get a trendline support which intersects the 20wMA at 28c. This is where strong support could be found if support at 30c should break.

The OBV shows that distribution has been going on since the week of 17 Jan while the MFI continues rising, indicating positive momentum in demand. While there is distribution, longer term demand is still positive.  Buying at supports instead of chasing a rising share price is sound advice.

Related post:
Raffles Education: Correction?

Tea with AK71: Naked chef to encourage men to cook.

Personally, I do not think this would work. I think guys would more likely watch the program to ogle the lady in the transparent apron! Who are they kidding? Guys would go to adult channels because they are looking for a specific something and not learn how to cook! Anyway, have a read:

Host Flora Cheung will start each 30-minute show shopping for fresh ingredients in the city's famous wet markets, undressing once she is back in the privacy of her studio kitchen, the South China Morning Post reported.

Cheung, who admits she has never worked in a restaurant kitchen, said she hopes the risque show will draw more men into the kitchen. The first episode is set to air later this month.

Oh, in case you guys are wondering, this is happening in Hong Kong. No such luck in Singapore. ;)

Read full article here.

CapitaMalls Asia: Partial divestment at resistance.

Just last evening, I said "Connecting the highs of 3 and 17 January gives us a trendline resistance. We could see $2.00 tested next if the bouyant price action follows through. It also remains to be seen if $1.93 is resistance turned support. I am monitoring this counter as I get ready to divest some." My sell queue for CMA was filled today at $2.00 as price went on to touch a high of $2.02 before closing at $2.00, right smack on resistance. Volume also expanded nicely.

The fact that price closed at $2.00 after touching a high of $2.02 hints at some selling pressure above $2.00. Next resistance levels are at $2.04, as provided by the 100dMA, and $2.08, as provided by the 200dMA. Could we see these levels tested in the next couple of sessions?

The 20dMA continues to rise and seems on track to forming a golden cross with the 50dMA. The MACD has risen into positive territory, heralding the return of positive momentum in the meantime. OBV keeps rising, suggesting more accumulation. RSI is rising after testing 50% as support several times, suggesting that there is support for the positive price action.

However, look at the MFI and this hints of something slightly ominous. It has been forming lower highs and even broke the trendline support. It is telling us to be cautious. This forms a negative divergence with the recent rising price. So, it is likely that this current strength we are seeing could peter out.

Let's zoom out and look at a longer term daily chart. If we connect the highs of 11 Dec 09 and 6 Oct 10, it is easy to see that the longer term downtrend is still intact. Where is this trendline resistance now? $2.14. This does not mean that price would hit $2.14 anytime soon, does it? As price would climb a wall of worries usually, $2.04 and $2.08 could be rather strong resistance levels. Over time, the longer term trendline resistance would not be at $2.14 anymore and would be lower. So, what would I do? Selling at resistance in a downtrend is what I would do.

I was asked why I am not holding for the long term if I think the fundamentals are strong. Well, fundamentals are different from sentiments. Let us look at the weekly chart which is sufficiently long term for me. It becomes clear why price hit $2.02 and retreated today. $2.02 is where we find the declining 20wMA. If this resistance were cleared, we could see price touching a high of $2.10 which is where we find the declining 50wMA. We have 3 more sessions in the week to see if this would happen.

In the longer term, the MFI and RSI have both risen out of their oversold regions and are forming higher highs. The MACD is making a bullish crossover with the signal line although in negative territory which suggests that given a longer time frame, this could just be another rebound in a downtrend. Watch those resistance levels identified.

What about buying? Would I buy more? $1.83 is a twice tested support and should be strong if retested. This counter might see some volatility yet but it could have possibly found a floor, if not the bottom.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Improving technicals.

Tea with AK71: A simple meal.

Friends are constantly amazed by how little money I could spend on food. Well, if we cook our own meals, we could save quite a bit of money and we could have a healthy meal for even less money. I think the idea that many people in affluent countries like Singapore eating too much rich food is quite true.

Let me share with you one of my favourite low cost and healthy meals: barley and winter melon. This is really a meal that kills two birds with one stone. Very rare.

You know how much money those packet drinks cost? Lemon Barley drink from Yeo's cost $2.40 for six 250ml packets, if I remember correctly. I feel that the drink is not even nice. Tastes like syrup.

Here is what I do. I buy a small packet of barley for 90c and a packet of sugared winter melon strips for only $4.50 (1kg pack). I get these from a Chinese medicine hall near my home. The barley and winter melon strips are enough for making at least 24 litres (usually more) of barley winter melon drink and eight meals! Really? Really!

Put about a tea cup worth of barley in a pot and wash clean. Fill the pot with water and set on a gas stove to boil. Once it has come to a boil, switch off the gas and add sugared winter melon strips for sweetness. Leave it for an hour to cool and pour the barley water into a 1.5 litre container meant for hot water. Then, fill up the pot with water and set to boil again. So, we would have another 1.5 litre of barley water.

Now, we have our drink which I usually take two days to consume. What about the meal I was talking about? After pouring out the second pot of barley water, let the barley and winter melon in the pot cool further. Then, transfer into a bowl for a nutritious meal which is rich in Germanium! Barley is a healthier choice compared to white rice too.

No prizes for guessing what did I have for lunch today. ;)