First REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

On 21 March, I mentioned that "Technically, the REIT is still in a downtrend which started on 20 Jan 2011. The trend resistance is at 74c. If price is able to break 74c convincingly, by this I mean with higher volume, we could see old highs tested as the downtrend breaks." In the last session, the REIT touched 74c although it closed at 73.5c which is still within the downtrend. Volume was relatively thin.

Checking the ADX, we see the -DI declining while the +DI has turned up. In fact, the +DI is close to crossing the -DI on the upside. The ADX keeps declining which suggests that the downtrend, although intact, is weakening. So, waiting to accumulate at the 200dMA could be wishful thinking in the near future.

In a change of plan, I would increase exposure to this REIT on any weakness and this would be at 73c (100dMA), 72c (lower Bollinger) and 71.5c (the recent low of 17 Mar).

Related post:
First REIT: Rising on low volume.

CapitaMalls Asia: Moving higher.

CapitaMalls Asia's price action is most pleasing today. Momentum oscillators are all rising strongly, suggesting strong demand and accumulation. Volume has been rising for 3 days in a row as price moved higher.

I have said earlier that the former support at $1.83 would become the resistance to watch if price were to move higher. This is still valid. In fact, the declining 50dMA is approximating $1.83 as well. However, I decided to draw some Fibo retracement lines as well as to use Fibo fan lines to see if they agree on this. I hardly use fan lines although I had experimented with them many moons ago.

It is interesting that the Fibo fan lines suggest $1.80 (61.8%) as a strong resistance while the Fibo retracement lines suggest that $1.81 (50%) is a strong resistance. So, in the event of a continuation of upward movement in price, if these resistance levels are strong enough, we might not even see $1.83.

So, what would I do? I would queue to divest partially at $1.80 as a hedge. If $1.83 were to be tested, I would divest again. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Downtrend broken.

Cache Logistics Trust: Downtrend intact.

After a brief two sessions of trading above the downtrend which started on 28 Jan, its unit price is once again within the downtrend. Fundamentally strong, this REIT's technicals are somewhat weak. The OBV suggests that distribution is ongoing.  

Could the divestment on 21 March by substantial shareholder, Morgan Stanley, have spooked investors? Morgan Stanley's stake in the REIT reduced from 7.1860 % to 6.9790 %.

With the chart spotting positive divergences and with the MFI suggesting some underlying demand, I expect the supports to hold up if retested. Unless distribution activities cease, it would be hard for price to move higher, however. So? This REIT could be bottoming too and, based on its strong fundamentals, I would accumulate on weakness, if any.


Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Mixed signals.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Still bottoming?

It is quite clear that this counter was in a downtrend until two sessions ago when price broke out of a steeper downtrend which started on 17 Feb 2011. Breaking out of the downtrend on very low volume could mean that the counter is starting a period of rangebound trading as it finds a bottom.  If this were true, we could see price trapped between 20c and 21c for a period of time.

Although the MACD histograms formed a higher low, the MACD itself did not although we could see it forming a higher high if the bouyant price action should continue. The higher lows on the MFI are quite obvious and the OBV has flattened in recent sessions. The mad selling down has ceased and the REIT has found support for now.

Fundamentally, it is a value proposition at 20c/unit as it would mean a distribution yield of 10%. With its loans not maturing until almost 3 years later and at a very low interest rate of 2.16%, there is very little risk in parking our funds here if we are looking for high yield investments. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that its yield should lend support to its current unit price.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Positive divergence.