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Soilbuild REIT: A nibble.

I blogged about Soilbuild REIT slightly more than a year ago. It did badly during its IPO and I said that, already having a huge exposure to industrial properties S-REITs then, I was not interested even as its unit price declined to 70c.

At the time, I also told a reader that if the REIT's unit price should decline so much as to offer a 10% distribution yield, I would initiate a long position even with my already large exposure to industrial properties S-REITs. That didn't happen.

Since then, the REIT's unit price has recovered thanks, to a large degree, to Chinese billionaire Tong Jin Quan who bought into the REIT. The more sanguine attitude Mr. Market has towards REITs in recent months probably has a large part to play in the price recovery too.

Of course, since then, my exposure to industrial properties S-REITs has also reduced by quite a bit, largely from the reduction of exposure to Sabana REIT. With my portfolio's much lighter weighting in industrial properties, I revisited Soilbuild REIT.

At almost 80c a unit, the estimated distribution yield is 7.5%, annualising a quarterly DPU of 1.5c. Although this is not enough for me to unlock my war chest, I decided to initiate a smallish long position which gives me an incentive to continue monitoring this REIT and to possibly make a bigger investment in future.

The following is taken from the REIT's presentation slides dated 29 July 2014:

Gearing: 30.3% (Will increase to 32% after acquiring 20 Kian Teck Lane.).

Average all in interest cost: 3.08% (95% hedged).

Interest cover ratio: 5.4x.

NAV/unit: 80c.

Portfolio remaining land lease: 49 years.

Occupancy: 98.5%

Two things that investors in Soilbuild REIT should keep an eye on are:

1. 32% ($95m) of debt is maturing in 2015.

2. 29.2% (accounting for 22.4% of rental income) of leases are expiring in 2015.

I do not think that the REIT will have trouble refinancing its debt. However, the concern would be the cost of debt. It is unlikely that the cost of debt would be lower. If cost of debt were to increase by just 1% for debt maturing in 2015, distributable income would see a reduction of some 4%, everything else remaining equal.

For leases expiring in 2015, it would be realistic to expect that not all would be renewed. Not all the expiring leases in 2014 were renewed. If the REIT should be unable to find new tenants, expect occupancy to decline. The supply of industrial spaces in Singapore is not as tight as it once was.

Going back to the concern of a possibly higher cost of debt, if risk free rates were to increase by 1%, Mr. Market could demand a yield of 8.5% (from the current 7.5%) from Soilbuild REIT. In such an instance, unit price would have to fall to 70.5c to meet such an expectation, all else remaining equal. We have to be aware that this is a possible downside and a very real possibility too.

Like with any other investment, if Mr. Market should offer much lower prices like when he threw a big tantrum in the middle of last year, what some called the "Taper Tantrum", we could buy more with bigger margins of safety. I could develop a bigger appetite quite suddenly then. For now, it is just a nibble.

See presentation slides: here.
See announcement: here.

Related posts:
1. Soilbuild Business Space REIT (Soilbuild REIT).
2. Bonds, REITs and the instant gratification of yield.

They invested in multiple properties and are now retrenched. (Two questions we should ask when buying investment properties.)

UPDATED (DEC 2016):

People do lose their jobs and for those who are financially leveraged to the max, it could be hell.

A reader's comment:

"...recently I attended a workshop at LLI. I spoke to an uncle in his 50s who is unemployed after he was retrenched... He has friends in the same industry who bought multiple properties and are currently retrenched as well... Other friends working in a prominent engineering company received letters asking them to opt for voluntary retirement after 59..." 





Full comment: here.

If those multiple properties are rented out and if the rentals are able to cover the mortgages, good. 

With the rental market being what it is (i.e. high vacancy rate and declining rents) or if the properties were purchased in the last 3 or 4 years (i.e. relatively high purchase prices and low rental yield), his friends (without an adequate emergency fund) could be in trouble.





Don't let greed get to us. 

Always stay grounded. 

Over leveraging (explained at the end of this blog post) could lead to trouble.

Financial prudence will not make us rich overnight but it will ensure we avoid painful falls some of which we might not recover from.





(Up to November this year, more than 800 transactions involving non-landed private properties were loss-making, double the figure in 2015. Analysts told The New Paper that "unprofitable" deals are common in a cyclical downturn where market sentiment and employment prospects are poor. Expectations of a US Fed rate hike by the end of the year, which would increase interest rates here, are also driving these loss-making sales. Source: The New Paper, 13 Dec 16)




------------------------
We always hope to make money from our investments and this could happen through capital gains, regular income or both. 

Knowing our motivations for being invested will go a long way in determining what are suitable investments for us.

It is well known that the luxury segment of the residential property market in Singapore has never been very good for income investors. 

In recent times, it has become worse. 

A gross rental yield of 2% is considered to be quite good for some properties in this segment, it seems, if tenants could be found at all as vacancy rate has been climbing.

Well, investors who bought into luxury residential properties in Singapore were probably going for potential capital gains and not rental income, anyway. 

This means that they hope to sell their properties at a higher price to another buyer later on.

The early birds did quite well but, increasingly, more buyers are resorting to leasing out their properties due to a lack of buying interest. 

This has depressed rentals further in this segment.

When monthly rental income declines to a point where it is unable to cover the mortgage payments, we could see fire sales and there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that this is already happening.





"According to Colliers International’s research, the average monthly gross rents of luxury/super-luxury apartments slid by yet another 1.4% QoQ to $5.20 per sq ft per month as of 2Q 2014, following the 1.9% QoQ fall in 1Q 2014." Source: Colliers International

I have been receiving emails offering discounts on properties in Singapore and some of them are of the high end kind. 

A small one bedroom (shoebox) apartment near Orchard Road for $1.1 million, down from $1.3 million, anyone?

I think that it is a sign of the times and we won't be wrong to expect more discounting both by developers and more marginal buyers of luxury residential properties here.

Buying a residential property in the hope that we could find buyers who would pay a much higher price for it in a short time is no longer a game we can play in Singapore unless the entry price were to be so attractive that even after accounting for the seller stamp duty (payable if the property is sold within 4 years of purchase), we could still make a decent gain.

However, if a developer had to resort to a 20% discount in order to move unsold stock, what makes us think that we would be able to sell at the pre-discounted price to anyone else? What? Not now? Maybe, 4 years later?

Well, with many more projects to be completed in the next few years, if anything, the secondary market will become even more challenging for sellers. 

Indeed, prices are more likely to trend downwards in the next few years than not.





When we take a speculative position, it is important that we understand that it is a speculative position. 

It means that we should be able to exit rapidly, cutting our losses, if required.

With conditions the way they are in Singapore now for the residential property market, this would be extremely difficult and also costly to do. 

For people without deep pockets, it could even be disastrous.

What do I mean by deep pockets?

Sometimes, we look at some companies' numbers and we might wonder why they have debts although they have more than enough cash to repay their debts.

It is because we should always have ample liquidity close at hand to take advantage of opportunities.

Having ample liquidity also means that if things go wrong like they sometimes do, these companies could pay down their debts rapidly.





Take a look at this company's numbers, for example,

So, for the more adventurous ones in our midst, please think again and again before handing over that cheque when temptations find their way into our mailbox.





"Is it a good deal?" is only the first question we must ask.

"Do we have deep pockets?" is an important second question.

"...overleveraging is a situation when people are borrowing money, hoping to make money but do not have enough capital assets to cover any likely future losses." (See related post #5)




Related posts:
1. CCR, RCR or OCR for rental income?
2. How to be rich when the world collapses?
3. Smaller apartments' prices more resilient.
4. Don't think and grow rich!
5. Leverage up and buy investment properties now?

Bonds, REITs and the instant gratification of yield.

The message that inflation is eroding our wealth because the banks here offer such measly interest rates for our savings has become quite pervasive. 

I am sure that the message has been good for sales in some industries too as many more people are worried now. 

I know my parents talk about it a lot more these days.




So, what do people do? They go hunting for higher yields. One of the easier things to do is to go to the banks and invest in products which promise yields which are much higher than the said interest rates. 

Many also go to the stock market to look for stocks, bonds or preference shares which offer yields that beat inflation.

In the hunt for higher yields, we might want to keep this in mind:

"Always remind yourself that investing is a long term activity. So, avoid the instant gratification of yield... think carefully about how you are getting that yield... But there is a tendency in this environment for everybody to feel like 'I've got too much cash rotting in the bank, earning nothing, and I have to do something with it.' ... Don't just buy the highest yielding investment out there. Historically, that's how people get themselves into trouble."  - Tad Rivelle, CIO, fixed income, TCW.

Is the low interest rate environment we see the new normal? Won't interest rates go up again? Pause and ruminate on this for a bit.

When we are offered a high yielding investment, we should ask how the investment is delivering the promised yield and if it is sustainable. If sustainable, for how long is it sustainable? What is the likelihood of a capital loss at various entry prices?

I like how Tad said we should avoid "the instant gratification of yield". 

It sounds similar to how we should try delaying gratification in consumption as we try to build wealth.

By saying that we should avoid "the instant gratification of yield", Tad is probably suggesting that we could possibly get in at a lower price in future and get a higher yield then, everything else remaining equal. 

The suggestion that people who get in now could lose money as prices fall in future is there as well.

I don't know if Tad had a working crystal ball when he said what he said but I know I don't. Could the low interest rate environment persist? 

It could but with experts saying that interest rates could rise sometime next year, shouldn't people in long term and perpetual bonds be worried? 

What about people in interest rate sensitive investments like REITs?

If interest rates should rise, yes, these investors should be worried. However, the bond holders should have more to worry. Why? 

Well, if interest rates rise, it is probably because higher inflation demands it. 

Bonds are not businesses. They are IOUs issued by businesses. They only have to pay the agreed coupon and nothing more. 

Bonds tend to do badly in an inflationary environment as interest rates rise.

For REITs, we can reasonably expect their asking rents to increase in an inflationary environment. There will be constant adjustments made as cost of new debt becomes higher but as long as rents are lifted higher in tandem, there is really no issue, everything else remaining equal. 




So, when investing in a REIT, one of the things to look at is the possibility of higher asking rents in future which involves a whole gamut of considerations which mostly can be neatly sorted under two headings, "supply" and "demand".

When the Fed finally decides to raise interest rates, I am sure that market prices of yield instruments will take a hit just like they did middle of last year. 

How big a hit? 

I have no way of telling but I have an inkling that prices would in all likelihood overcompensate to the downside.

Depending on what our existing investments are, some will suffer more than others but chances of any investor escaping unscathed would be slim. 

So, now, do we liquidate all our investments and do a Chicken Little which is what some people have done?

Well, we could but knowing that I don't really know, my preferred method has always been to stay invested while maintaining a high level of liquidity. 

So, doing what I do means being able to continue receiving income from my investments which increases the level of liquidity that I have.

After all, what is the best way to ride out volatility? Having plenty of cash.




So, bonds or REITs, before we plonk in any money now, we might want to temper our expectations by reminding ourselves of the risk that comes with the instant gratification of yield.

Related posts:
1. Get paid more waiting for opportunities.
2. How to earn 6.3% interest after 4 years?
3. Nobody cares more about our money.
4. Never lose money in REITs or real estate?
5. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?