Yongnam: Substantial shareholder increased stake.

Delta Lloyd Asset Management on 31 October 2013 bought 1,231,000 shares.

Price? 24.08c a piece.

They now have a total of 115,089,000 shares or a 9.08% interest.

I first made mention of Delta Lloyd Asset Management in the comments section of my blog in January this year and it seems that they have been a persistent buyer. I have probably missed quite a few instances of buying by them since then.

See my comments on their buying activities as well as their rationale for investing in Yongnam (translated from Dutch to English): here.

Related post:
Yongnam: Profit guidance.

Be rewarded for opening an SRS account!

I have blogged about the benefits of having an SRS account many times before and if you do not yet have an SRS account, you might want to think of starting one.

Click to enlarge.

If you are thinking of starting one before the end of the year to save on income tax payable next year, you might want to consider OCBC's offer.

First 2,000 customers to open a new OCBC SRS account with at least $8,000 will get a $30 Robinsons shopping voucher!

I love a good deal and I love sharing the news too.

Related posts:
1. SRS: A brief analysis.
2. Ways to reduce income tax.
3. Don't see money, won't spend money.

Not an advertorial.

Croesus Retail Trust: Initiated long position at 87c.

I love Japan and with the Japanese Yen so low now, I am planning a trip to the Land of the Rising Sun in December. 

This might have something to do with why I initiated a long position in Croesus Retail Trust. You think so? Nah.

Croesus Retail Trust is a business trust which owns 4 shopping malls in Japan. Its IPO in May priced its units at 93c a piece which meant a slight premium of 3.3% over its NAV of 90c a unit.


Luz Shinsaibashi is a new retail building in Osaka.

The Trust dangled a distribution yield of 8% and investors lapped it up, pushing the unit price to a high of $1.18 on the first day of trading. 

An auspicious number for the Cantonese people perhaps as it sounds like "prosper everyday" but not for those who bought some then. 

Unit price declined over the next 4 months to touch a low of 84.5c on 17 Sep for an almost 29% drop.

Buying at a discount to NAV and getting a relatively high yield is an attractive combination for me. The bug bear is the relatively high gearing level of about 44%. 

Any yield accretive acquisition will probably be funded through a blend of debt and equity. So, for someone who might not have the resources to participate in a rights issue, this is something to bear in mind.

Although trading at a discount to NAV and offering a relatively high distribution yield, there was nothing to prevent unit price from declining further after touching 84.5c on 17 Sep. The good news for unit holders is that it did not.

Indeed, unit price seems to have found a floor with many times tested support at 85.5c. The confluence of the 50d and 20d MAs form the immediate support at 87c. 

With the downtrend broken and unit price moving sideways now, I decided that downside risk has reduced from a technical perspective.

The 180 days lock-up for the sponsor and their strategic partners in the Trust will end sometime this month. Will they sell 50% of their stakes? 

With trading volume so low, it could drive unit price down by quite a few notches if they should do so. Well, I simply don't know.

What I do know is that at 87c per unit, I am buying at a 3.33% discount to NAV and I will receive an estimated 8.5% distribution yield. 

If price action should test the support at 85.5c, I might buy more because there would be a bigger margin of safety then.

Now, I look forward to the Trust's first income distribution which is expected to be paid in March 2014.

Related post:
Invest in Japanese real estate: Croesus Retail Trust.

Have a break!

This is something I have pretty often for my afternoon tea breaks:

Wholemeal bread. So healthy!


So, what's inside? Er... ahem...

So yummy!

To let go or to hold on to a position?

We can either make statements of fact or opinions. They are quite different from one another although sometimes people mix them up. This is just something that happens naturally in daily life.

"Today's temperature is 30 degrees Celcius." This is a statement of fact. It could be either right or wrong.

"This is a nice day." This is an opinion. There is no right or wrong.

How could these be mixed up?

Well, to me, it might be a fact that the weather is nice but to someone else it might not be. We could have a debate until the cows come home on who is right but it would be an exercise in futility because there is simply no right or wrong to this.

Of course, we can make statements of fact or opinions about anything under the Sun, including people.

"This person is 1.7m in height." This is a statement of fact.

"This person is short." This is an opinion.

In the land of the Vikings, 1.7m might be short for a guy but in PNG, 1.7m might be considered tall.

Now, when we start saying things about people, we have to be a bit more careful because it could get sensitive. I know people who are vertically challenged who are very sensitive to being called "short".

So, I try to be careful about what I say about people. I don't want to be hurtful. The best is not to say anything at all. If I have to say something, I try to make sure it is positive. If it is not, I try to be diplomatic.

Sometimes, I might slip up. If the other party should be diplomatic enough to let it go, then, I should be grateful and let it slide. I might even think of how to make it up to the other party in future.

Why force anyone into a corner? When any regular guy with an iota of pride is forced into a corner, what is going to be his natural reaction? Should we be surprised by the answer?

We will very likely save ourselves and others a lot of angst if we are more careful with what we say in the first instance.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Progress in Q3.

In my blog post of 10 August, I mentioned that current DPU is being sustained by earned out deeds which will be exhausted by end 2014. So, we really need to see stronger occupancy and evidence of improved cash flow from operations in the coming quarters.

The latest report shows that the Trust's operations have improved with occupancy in Shengyang Longemont Shopping Mall increasing to 85% and with occupancy in Shenyang Red Star Macalline Furniture Mall at 93%. Shenyang Longemont offices saw occupancy improving from 33% to 41%, quarter on quarter.

Perennial Jihua Mall which opened in August has hit an occupancy of 95% while Perennial Qingyang Mall which is slated for opening in 1Q 2014 saw leasing commitment improving from 67% to 75%.

All in all, it seems that the management have been working hard to secure tenants. However, there is still much to be done. So, I believe that it is still relatively risky investing in PCRT compared to a plain vanilla retail or commercial S-REIT.

Therefore, I would ask to be adequately compensated for the risk that I would be taking on if I were to invest in the Trust.

For now and the next few quarters, the Trust would probably continue to draw on those earned out deeds in order to sustain the income distributions at current level to unit holders.

Will the Trust be able to maintain its current DPU without the earned out deeds from 1Q 2015? It would depend on the progress that they make in the next 15 months. If the Trust keeps up the momentum we see in Q3 and with the opening of a new mall with a relatively high level of leasing commitment in early 2014, it could happen.

Bearing in mind that another mall, Perennial Dongzhan Mall, could open its doors in 1Q 2015, things could further improve if there is, again, a relatively high level of leasing commitment. However, we do not want to count our chicks before they are hatched as the management have just started to market this new mall to prospective tenants.

Assuming that no further improvements are forthcoming which, I believe, is rather unlikely, then, I have estimated in an earlier blog post that DPU could reduce by at least 50% from 1Q 2015.

With an entry price that gives me approximately an 8% yield, a 50% reduction would bring the yield down to 4%. Although this is unlikely to be the case, if it should happen, it is still acceptable to me.

What about anyone who is thinking of buying in at 54c a unit today? Well, that would mean a yield of 7% and a worst case scenario yield, by my reckoning, of 3.5% in 2015.

If distribution yield should decline by 50%, however, it would be optimistic to think that the unit price of the Trust would not decline. This is especially true in an environment of rising risk free rate.

So, before we invest in the Trust, should we not ask ourselves if we are able to stomach what could be the worst case scenario?

Related post:
Perennial China Retail Trust: 1H 2013.

My iPad has died.

Last night, when I tried to switch on my iPad, all I got was a black screen with a faint light glowing from the sides. Reset it and it still didn't work. Charged it overnight and tried it again this morning and it is still dead.

The only thing I have yet to try is to slap it. Maybe, I should slap it (a few times) this evening when I get home. It might be in a deep slumber and hard slaps could be the remedy. You don't think so?

While driving to work, I was thinking of buying a replacement iPad. I am rather partial to the iPad Mini after seeing the one a friend has. The iPad Mini weighs a paltry 308gm. I find that attractive.

Since Apple dropped the price to $408.00 for the old iPad Mini with the new version launched, it is even more attractive to get the old version now. Of course, since I am not in a hurry, I could wait to get a refurbished iPad Mini for only $348.00 direct from Apple Store (and with warranty too)!

My iPad was pre-owned. A friend who was upgrading to the iPad 2 back then gave this to me more than 2 years ago. After using it for a bit, I was so wowed by it that I bought two iPad 2s, one for my mom and one for my niece. Now, we cannot imagine not having an iPad at home.

Rationally, however, I don't think I need an iPad. A friend told me I was under-utilising mine as I use it mostly for games and movies.

An iPad is definitely nice to have but, for me, it is probably not a necessity. Having said this, I suspect that it will still be hard not to have one around because I am so used to watching movies in bed (which is not a good habit, I know). The portability is very attractive.

I was doing quite well with just my PC and notebook before the iPad came into my life more than 2 years ago. Will I suffer withdrawal symptoms from being iPad-less? I guess there is only one way to find out. Wish me luck!

Related posts:
1. Have an iPad?
2. Protect your iPad.
3. I grew up without an iPad.

That's IT with AK71.

OK, amusing blog title? Go ahead, please laugh.


Muahahahaha!


LOL!


ROFL!


Fell off your chair? I hope you were not sitting on a high chair.


After all, AK71 and IT don't mix well. ;p

So, what is this blog post about? It is just to record some observations as to which OS and web browser are number 1 now amongst the readers of ASSI. Statistics are for the last one month:

Number 1 OS is still Windows although at 49%, it is probably not as dominant as before.

Android has a very small lead over iPhone. Actually, reading blogs on a phone must be quite demanding. I don't know why people do it. Of course, with bigger screens available from Samsung and HTC, for examples, perhaps, that is why Android has a slight lead.

Nonetheless, Apple is one against so many. If we add iPad and iPod, then, Android is beaten. Apple is just an amazing company.

What about browsers? It has always been Internet Explorer for me. Only when I started blogging a few years ago did I learn about other browsers. So, being the dinosaur that I am, I am a bit surprised to find that Internet Explorer is number 3 in my blog stats.

Number 1 browser is Safari with a 27% share and number 2 browser is Chrome with a 25% share. My good old trusty Internet Explorer has a 20% share.

Even though I am a "know almost nothing" guy when it comes to IT, these numbers are still interesting to me and tell me how things are changing rapidly (and that I am probably being left behind).

Related post:
ASSI: 10 quarterly reports in 1 blog post.

Yongnam: Profit guidance 3Q 2013.

Yongnam's share price declined more than 10% early this morning. Reason? The management issued a profit guidance. It is more like a fair warning that the latest quarter's results will be negative and that investors should not be too optimistic. This is due to:

1. Cost overruns from 3 on-going projects, paring operating margin to new lows

and

2. A significant one-off loss on disposal of some fixed assets.

So, what did I do? Thanks to an SMS alert from a friend, I did a quick read of the announcement before buying more at 24c a share.



I believe that Yongnam's position in the construction industry is not shaken. It owns a large inventory of reusable steel struts which are valuable assets as they also present a high barrier to entry in Yongnam's niche in the industry.

The decline in share price has presented a good opportunity for me to buy into the business at a discount to NTA. I cannot see how it is a bad idea to own what Yongnam has at a discount.

Of course, cost overruns and suffering losses are unpleasant but we are buying a business with an eye on its future. So, it is important to question if such instances will become the norm? Will they happen again and again in the future? Will they be persistent?

I am of the belief that these are one-off events and that Yongnam's balance sheet will not be negatively impacted in any big way. Overall, Yongnam will still remain profitable for the year although it will pale in comparison to the year before.

Yongnam's future is bright as they will be a beneficiary of the government's drive to double the MRT network in Singapore and there will be work aplenty until 2030. Even if there should not be any iconic projects (which is unlikely), Yongnam will probably have quite a bit of work to keep them busy in the years ahead.

When one-off events like this send Mr. Market into a manic depression, they present a chance for me to buy a business with a proven track record and a bright future at a discount.

Some of us might remember there were times when Mr. Market was very optimistic about Yongnam (for example, on the Myanmar airport projects). Its share price rose to be much higher then. That was probably a bad time to buy.

Please note that I am not glossing over the challenges that Yongnam is facing. Like other construction companies, Yongnam is having a hard time with cost pressures.

With a 3Q loss, they might or might not pay a dividend for the year although a lower DPS should not be demanding. Without major CAPEX in the year, this is a possibility.

See:
Profit guidance: 3Q 2013

Related post:
Yongnam: A chance to accumulate cheaper.

Photos of AK's home.

In my last blog post, some readers thought that the photos were of my home.

Nope. Too luxurious. 

Anyway, curiosity is only natural and since I took some photos of my place a couple of years ago, here they are:

Main entrance to my home on the right.

I gave away the TV console and LCD TV to my sister.

Kitchen with inexpensive washing machine and fridge.

The rather small guest room which was rented out to a friend.

Washroom.

My bedroom.

This is SPARTA!

Related post:
Moved in after 2 weeks and an $8,000 renovation.

Moved in after 2 weeks and an $8,000 renovation.

I shared in Facebook how I spent $8,000 doing up my apartment 6 or 7 years ago and moved in 2 weeks after I got my keys.

Someone asked me how did I do it and whether I could blog about it.

I did a quick summary in Facebook in the wee hours of this morning and I am doing a cut and paste here since the majority of you guys (and gals) don't follow me on Facebook.

"Terrence, it was so many years ago. There isn't much to write really... Lights >$1K... Curtains/Blinds >$1K ... 26" LCD TV, Medium size 2 door fridge, top loading fuzzy logic washing machine >$1K... Furniture from IKEA (Queen Size Bed/Single Bed/Mattresses, 2 Seater Sofa, Dining Table + 4 chairs, TV Console, Shelves, Side Tables) >$2K... Painted the place myself in one weekend... :) 

"It really depends on what we can accept. Many people told me IKEA furniture CMI but mine lasted >4 years and when I sold my place, the buyer asked to have all the furniture. Still good. Just imagine that the money I spent on all my furniture cannot even pay for a bed or a sofa for some people. -.-"







"I am not saying that I am right and they are wrong but there are choices. The same goes for electrical appliances. I spent less than 2K on washing machine ($299), fridge ($499) and LCD TV ($699). For some people, their TV already costs $2K (or more)!

"Very often, I see people trying to keep up with their friends and relatives. "They have, I must also have! If I don't have, I will lose face!" Big problem if they think like this especially if they cannot afford it. Even if they can afford it, should they spend that money?






"To me, it wasn't about affordability although I could afford better. I could put the money to better use. People laughed at my TV back then. It was CHIMEI brand. My Taiwanese friend told me it was Taiwan's 2nd biggest brand. Good enough for me. 26" LCD TV at $699 7 years ago was a very good price. I think SHARP would have cost 50% more.

"I don't think I was extreme in delaying gratification but I did delay within reason. Why use our hard earned money to buy a super high tech TV when we could get one "free" later on with passive income generated by our investments?"

We have choices in life.





We can choose to be 
"Under-accumulators of wealth (UAWs)"
or 
"Prodigious accumulators of wealth (PAWs)".
Source: The Millionaire Next Door.

"I have been labelled a person with a peasant mentality when it comes to wealth building... Unfortunately, I was not born with a silver spoon in my mouth... I can only do what I can with my limited resources to move upwards."
Source: To be a happy peasant.







As long as we are not severely disadvantaged in life, this is definitely something which all of us can do. 

If AK can do it, so can you!

Related posts:
1. A reader in his early 20s.
2. The secret to avoiding financial ruin.
3. From rich to broke.
4. If we are not rich, don't act rich.
5. Not enough money to be married.

How much more will AVIVA be paying AK?

I have blogged about how I buy single premium endowment policies with my SRS money before.

The best product ever was the Guaranteed Rewards plan from UOB Life which unfortunately is no longer available.

That guaranteed 3% to 4% returns per annum over an 8 to 10 year period. Of course, there was a life insurance component as well.

A Guaranteed Rewards $20,000 endowment policy that matured 2 years ago became more than $30,000 after the 10 year period was up.

That was 4% compounded yearly over a 10 year period. Some might not agree with me but I feel that for a relatively stress free option, it was not too bad.

I have another Guaranteed Rewards policy that is going to mature soon. I think it is probably going to be next year.

In the meantime, I have a single premium endowment policy from AVIVA called Guaranteed XO which is maturing on 21 November 2013 after 8 years. This one has a guaranteed portion and a non-guaranteed portion which pays every 2 years.

I cannot remember exactly but the last three payouts were unimpressive. I was probably paid less than $800 in total.

In their latest advice to me, they did not say how much more I would be paid on top of the single premium of S$10,000 all of which would be returned to my SRS account.

Will I get a pleasant surprise in November?

Pleasant surprise or not, this is going to beef up my SRS account which is one of my 4 war chests.

Related posts:
1. Great Eastern Life paid me $4,000.
2. Customer service in insurance companies.
3. A war chest called "SRS".

First REIT: DPU increased 16.7% to 1.96c.

On 26 July, I blogged about a 16.4% increase in First REIT's DPU. That was due primarily to contributions from 4 newly acquired properties. So, a continuation of the higher DPU through the quarter that ended 30 September should not come as a surprise.

Sometimes, in REITs, we see increases in net property income and distributable income but a lower or stagnant DPU. Of course, if the gearing level should be significantly reduced, it could be acceptable. Otherwise, all else being equal, it just means that we had an incompetent management.

When I initially invested in First REIT years ago, it had a relatively low gearing ratio. It was a bit more than 10%. Now, it is above 30%. So, the higher DPU has been achieved by leveraging up. Now, I am not saying that this is a bad thing.

However, to continue growing through acquisitions is going to be more difficult especially because the management wants to keep gearing at around 30%. This was also why I cautioned in an earlier blog post that we could expect a private placement if there should be another acquisition in the pipeline.

With the management saying that they are exploring AEIs to enhance income stream and to maximise returns to unitholders instead, the prospect of having a private placement is much weaker now. I view this as a good thing.

To have a private placement in order to strengthen the balance sheet making an acquisition or development less onerous might or might not result in a higher DPU. In the case of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, DPU improved while in the case of Cache Logistics Trust, DPU declined although marginally. So, in the case of First REIT, since we have a good thing in hand, why change it? The status quo is fine by me.

The CEO of First REIT's manager, Dr. Ronnie Tan, has a reputation for accumulating the REIT's units at all price levels. His interests are more aligned with unitholders', therefore. So, this is, perhaps, a reason why First REIT has been such a good investment for retail investors.

Related posts:
1. First REIT: DPU increased 16.4% (Part 1).
2. First REIT: DPU increased 16.4% (Part 2).

Don't waste the last bit of jam, again.

It was pineapple and mango the last time. So, what is it this time?

Guess?



One.



Two.



Three.



Times' up!

Did you guess correctly?

Slurp!

For people who don't know what I am talking about, please read related post below. ;)

Related post:
Don't waste the last bit of jam.

3 Trusts in AK71's portfolio and their income distributions.

I am expected to be quite bogged down by work in the near term and it will probably be a good idea to get more sleep in the meantime. However, reading pages 6 and 7 of The Business Times just now perked me up and I just got to blog about it.

3 Trusts I am invested in have announced their DPU for the last quarter:

The star is AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which, regular readers would know, is one of my two biggest investments in S-REITs, the other one being Sabana REIT. As per my expectations, the annualised DPU of the REIT is now 11c as it declared a DPU of 2.75c for the quarter ended 30 Sep 13.

There are plans to bump up DPU in the next 2 years through AEIs, acquisitions and by maximising plot ratios. I will temper my optimism because if the REIT should try to lower its gearing, it could do another private placement and this would water down any potential increase in DPU.

Cache Logistics Trust which most analysts seem to favour announced a lower DPU of 2.126c, down 0.8%, year on year. Not a big deal although a bit of growth would have been nice. This is especially when distributable income actually rose 9.6% to $16.5million.

DPU came in lower due to 70 million private placement units in March this year. Regular readers know that I much prefer rights issues to private placements since retail investors like me never get to buy discounted units at private placements.

The third Trust is Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT). It announced a DPU of 2.08c which is some 18.9% higher, year on year. Lower finance costs and lesser payment to holders of its Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs) are what helped to boost DPU.

A rough back of the envelope calculation tells me that the income distributions for the quarter ended 30 Sep 13 from these 3 Trusts will form approximately 7% of my total passive income from S-REITs this year. This will be very useful for my first year end holiday with my family in 5 years. I am looking forward to spending some quality time with my family and taking a longish break from work.

Always good to have positive news to perk us up in life.

Related posts:
1. Cache Logistics Trust: Initiated long position.
2. FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in 18 months.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

Buffett's secrets from Baltimore County Public Library.

I just received a parcel. It contains a hard cover copy of "Buffettology" from Baltimore County Public Library!

The library received the book in November 1997. Wow! Imagine that. I was only 26 years old in 1997.

This book is 16 years old! It was sitting in a public library in the USA and now it is mine. I get a strange, fuzzy feeling thinking about it.

It also gives me satisfaction to know that this purchase from BetterWorldBooks helped to fund literacy for the less privileged.

Some stuff in the book.

New material for bedtime reading.

Related post:
Good deal on Buffettology.

Emergency Fund: How much is enough?

I want to thank a former guest blogger, Winston Koh, for showing me a video clip by the famous Suze Orman on the topic of "Emergency Fund".



In case we lose our jobs, it could take us a much longer time to get a new job if Singapore goes into a severe recession. Think GFC. Think AFC.

We would need an emergency fund to tide us over and we do not want to be in a situation where we might have to liquidate our investments at depressed prices. The cost of holding an emergency fund is well worth it. There is no question about this.

Related posts:
1. Why a meaningful emergency fund is important?
2. Nobody cares more about our money than we do.
3. Don't see money, won't spend money.

Fukushima and investing in Japanese real estate.

I have real estate investments in Japan through Saizen REIT. So, naturally, I am concerned about whether there is any progress made at the Fukushima nuclear power facility.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems to be doing all the right things to kick start an economy that has been in deflation for 20 years. He has also openly asked for help from the international community to help manage the problematic Fukushima power plant. Is a solution close at hand?


Radioactivity levels at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant on Thursday were 6,500 times higher than the previous day's readings. 19 October 2013.

The situation does not seem to have improved.

Although Saizen REIT does not have buildings within a 20km radius of the power plant, the nearest being 60km away in Koriyama and 100km away in Sendai, the inability of Japan to handle the problem in an effective manner raises pertinent questions since earthquakes are likely to occur again. If nuclear plants in other parts of Japan should face the same problem in future, what then?

Having said this, if we believe that the Japanese economy is turning around and if we want to invest in Japanese residential real estate, it would make more sense to invest in a REIT than to invest in specific properties in Japan. This will lower the risk of a total loss due to natural calamities.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Sendai, Koriyama and Morioka.
2. Invest in Japanese real estate.
3. December 2011 in Japan: Hakone.