The US consumers are back!

There is a saying: "old habits die hard". This is why I always say what we see happening in the global economy is not just a function of economics and politics, it is also a function of culture. For any culture to change their practices, it would usually take an entire generation and the will to change has to be forceful.  Usually, this means that reality must have shifted so much as to burn an indelible mark in the psyche of its people.

Thus, we saw the Americans saving more when it looked as if their country was plunging into a bottomless pit in the midst of the global financial crisis (which, by the way, originated in the USA).  A worsening of the crisis was averted by the decisive actions of the US government.  With the spectre of prolonged hardship receding, it seems that the American consumers are back at what they do best.  This is a double edged sword, I do not doubt.  However, it is good news for the economy while it lasts.

Visa 2Q profit jumps as consumer spending rebounds

Visa posts 33 percent jump in 2nd-quarter profit as consumer spending gains strength
Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday April 28, 2010, 6:49 pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Revived consumer spending drove Visa Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter profit up 33 percent and the credit and debit card processor forecast strong revenue growth for the full year.

Visa's growth continued to lean heavily on surging debit card usage as customers still prefer paying with checking account funds rather than with credit cards. The increased fees that Visa is collecting from merchants for processing customers' payments echoes the improved sales results many companies have reported in recent weeks as consumers appear to be more confident about spending.

In the U.S., Visa said 19 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the size of those purchases in dollars rose 18 percent. In foreign markets, 20 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the value of those transactions in dollars surged 33 percent.

Chairman and CEO Joseph Saunders noted that volume growth fueled the earnings gains, but said the company is "increasingly optimistic that economic growth will gradually improve."

Read full article here.
 
The Bears are Wrong: "The Consumer Is RE-leveraging," Jon Markman Says
Posted Apr 26, 2010 09:34am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
 
The recent data is convincing; The U.S. consumer is making a comeback. New home sales jumped 27% percent in March, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 411,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. Meanwhile, durable goods orders (large manufactured products) rose the most since the 'great recession' began.

As sure as buying low and selling high is a winning formula, an American with money will purchase goods, says Marketwatch columnist and author Jon Markman. "Anybody who's bet against the American consumer over the long term has gone broke," he tells Aaron in this clip.



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New global economic leadership.
Real estate as a hedge against inflation.

Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

Straits Asia Resources posts 68% fall in Q1 net profit to $15.4m
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI drops 2% to 2,932.04 at closing
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top formed today on lower volume.  This is a reversal signal, again. The MACD has stopped increasing its distance from the signal line.  This suggests that the downward movement in price has slowed down somewhat in intensity. Stochastics and MFI are going deeper into oversold territory and the OBV turned down slightly.  All in, the technicals are still bearish. If the reversal signal delivers, immediate resistance are at $2.24 and $2.27, provided by the declining 20dMA and 50dMA respectively.

Golden Agriculture: Despite gapping down initially, a white candle was formed today as the counter closed at 59.5c.  However, unable to close higher than the closing price of the previous session is still rather bearish.  OBV is down. MFI is flat which suggests a lack of positive buying momentum. Initial support is still at 57.5c.

Healthway Medical: A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 15.5c. A dead cross formed as the descending 20dMA cuts the 50dMA from the top. Technically, things look grave, pardon the pun.  However, the more or less flat OBV plus the fact that the Stochastics is in the oversold region suggest that any downward movement is likely to be a slow drift rather than a crash.

Courage Marine: The MFI continues to move lower away from the overbought region.  OBV dips down slightly as the price action formed a doji today. Price touched a low of 22c for the second day in a row, supported by the rising 20dMA.  Perhaps, this counter needs to see the longer term MAs catch up with the 20dMA before its price could move higher. A correction using time, perhaps?

Saizen REIT: It is worth reminding ourselves that the longer term uptrend is intact as the descending 100wMA plays havoc with sentiments. Look at the daily chart and we see the MFI has formed a higher high and a higher low.  Buying momentum has been positive.  In fact, the MACD has turned up slightly today towards the signal line while still above zero.

16.5c is still the support to watch. 17.5c is still the resistance provided by the descending 100wMA.

 
In the weekly chart, it is quite clear that the OBV has been trending up which suggests that steady accumulation is happening over time. Any further weakness in price is likely to bring out more buyers, as such.
 

Singapore’s central bank says inflation could hit 4% in Q4
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Even the 4% being earned in our CPF Special Accounts is just keeping pace with inflation by Q4 this year.  A scary thought. Bungee jumping, anyone?

Be Patient ... Big Jobs Gains Are Coming,
Chris Rupkey Says
Posted Apr 28, 2010 09:00am EDT by Heesun Wee



Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sheldon G. Adelson tells Yahoo! SEA's Ion Danker what he thinks of Resorts World Sentosa, 28 April 2010.

What do you think of the competition from Resorts World Sentosa? @ Yahoo! Video

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Charts in brief: 27 April 10.