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Golden Agriculture: An inverted cross.

Friday, May 14, 2010

A doji that looks like an inverted cross. Not good.  Well, it's not because it invites the devil in but it suggests that price tried to push higher but ended up in failure at the end of the day.



Fundamentally, CPO price declined again today and, thus, continues the downtrend. This is probably one reason why Golden Agriculture's share price is lacklustre.

MFI has formed a slightly higher high. It remains to be seen if it would form a higher low. MACD and OBV are both flat. Volume is much lower.  All these suggest a lack of interest from market participants.  If this continues, chances are greater that the price would drift slowly lower.

55.5c remains the resistance level to watch for now. This was the price at which I divested some of my remaining investment in the company recently on 10 May, observing that the uptrend has been compromised.

SPH: Another black candle day.

After doing a partial divestment of my investment in this company at $3.95 on 10 May, the price has been closing lower. This is the 4th black candle day in a row. I was hoping that price would move higher to test the next higher resistance so that I could divest more of my investment. No such luck.



MACD is moving deeper into negative territory. MFI formed a lower high on 10 May and has continued declining since, suggesting declining positive buying momentum. OBV is more or less flat.

On a positive note, the volume has been rather low in the last four sessions which means an absence of heavy selling.  If price does move higher towards the declining 20dMA at $4.00, I would very likely sell more.  If it moves to retest the recent low, I would wait to see if a higher or lower low is formed before deciding on a course of action.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another up day.

CapitaMalls Asia staged another up day on similar volume as the prior session.  I queued overnight to reduce exposure further at $2.12, not confident that this level would be taken out.  I also queued to sell at $2.17, two bids below the next resistance which was identified at $2.19, if $2.12 should be taken out.  Of course, both sell orders were done. I have a small position left. 



What will I do next? If the price moves higher to test the higher resistance level at $2.23, I would exit totally. If it does not and shows signs of a slide back downwards, I would also exit totally as it might go on to retest the recent low. The recent increase in price on rather low volumes lacks conviction and does not bode well for long only investors. I would watch out for the counter to form a base, lacking which, it should form a higher low, before I consider going long again.

This is the second counter I have cut loss on this year after China Hongxing.  In a way, it is good to lose some money after a long winning streak as it reminds me that I am human and that I make mistakes too.  Must not become overly confident which might really sink me one day.

I read somewhere that it is normal to give back some of our gains to the market when the trend turns.  The person being interviewed said to give back 25% of our gains is acceptable. Personally, I think that is too much. ;-p


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