STI: Falling through the 200dMA.

My last post on the STI scared quite a few people, I imagine. Well, the STI has closed below the 200dMA on relatively high volume.  Failing to recapture the 200dMA support is bearish, of course.

STI decreases 0.8% to 2,753.51 at closing
Thursday, 20 May 2010

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The MACD continues to pull away downwards from the signal line, increasing the distance with the signal line when it looked as if it was just closing the distance in the last few sessions. The sell signal in the last session was confirmed.

The MFI continues forming lower highs and being some distance from oversold, it could continue moving downwards with little trouble.  The OBV is steadily declining. The 20dMA seems set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA in due course.

The low achieved today at 2,735 just touched the uptrend line before bouncing to close somewhat higher at 2,753.  Will the trendline support hold up tomorrow?

Looking at the weekly chart, we find the next support provided by the 50wMA at 2,720 points. The previous low was at 2,660 points. To keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points. Well, there is one day left to the week.  How the STI behaves tomorrow could very well determine the tone of the market next week.

Incidentally, the declining 100wMA is no longer at 2,425 points.  It is now at 2,400 points. A declining MA is not a very strong support.  That's for sure.

Related post:
STI at 2425 points?

Golden Agriculture: Testing 200dMA support.

I sold half of my remaining position at 55.5c resistance on 10 May and hoped that the upward momentum could be sustained to hit 58c where I would sell my remaining shares but that did not happen.

Today, its price broke the 200dMA briefly to touch a low of 50.5c but closed at 52c.  This might be due to a little bounce in CPO's price today to close at RM2,470, up RM35 or 1.44%.  Clearly, the downtrends for both Golden Agriculture and CPO are intact.

If the price closes below the 200dMA, the near term supports are at 48c and 46c as suggested by the candlesticks.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: An inverted cross.

FSL Trust: That sinking feeling.

FSL Trust's price is being battered for losing a big part of a 15% income from a long term charter.  If we think about it, proportionally, its unit price should not lose more than 15% as well. However, from a price of about 60c just before the news was made known, it has plunged to close at 44.5c today. At one point, it reached a low of 42.5c today.

MFI is in oversold territory.  OBV is still declining. However, the price decline in the last 13 sessions show clearly a pattern of low volume pullback.  The fundamentals notwithstanding, I sense an opportunity.  I would be very tempted to buy some at the 138.2% Fibo line which approximates 41.5c.  If the price should go as low as the 150% Fibo line which approximates 39c, I would probably get some.

Related post:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?