FSL Trust: A new low.

On 7 Jun 10, I mentioned that FSL Trust "closing at 45c is below the trendline support in the short term. Could we be seeing the start of a bottoming process with 42.5c as the base and 46c as the neckline? Could we be seeing the start of a trading range with support at 42.5c and resistance at 46c? Although the MACD is above the signal line, it remains in negative territory. The MFI has peeked above 50% and the OBV is flattish. Selling pressure has abated. That much is obvious."

Then, news that Verona I, seized in Japan by Singapore-based Daxin Petroleum for not paying for bunker supplied by Daxin had muted response from market participants. Today, news that the other vessel, Nika I, also returned by Groda Shipping is arrested in Qingdao, China, by Daxin over the same reason sent FSL Trust's unit price plunging.

Fundamentally, I priced in a worst case scenario of a loss of 15% income as well as a 33% reduction in dpu from 1.5 USc per quarter to 1.0 USc per quarter.  Technically, it looked as if FSL Trust was bottoming and I bought some units as a hedge.  My recent purchases here demonstrate the danger of anticipation using TA rather than wait for firmer signs of bottoming or a trend reversal.

Now, the question is what would I do from here? Buy more? No, technicals are very bearish. Could it go lower? It might.  Sell and cut losses? No, not now when its price is forming a new low.

FSL Trust's unit price hit a historic low of 32c in March 2009 and at today's low of 39c, the price is only 7c away from testing that low. It seems to me that a test of 32c as support would be overly pessimistic and if it should come to that, I would probably buy in again.

FSL Trust down 6.8%; another vessel seized
Wednesday, 09 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
FSL Trust: Time to buy?

Charts in brief: 8 Jun 10.

Golden Agriculture: Price tried to move higher today, only to close unchanged, forming a gravestone doji in the process. MFI has formed a higher low.  OBV is flat.  The MACD has risen above the signal line in negative territory.  Selling pressure has abated but it is obvious that the counter has broken its longer term uptrend as it has been trading below the 200dMA for many sessions now, unable to recapture support. The 20dMA is also poised to form a dead cross with the 200dMA. Further downside should find support at 44.5c as shown by Fibo lines.  This happens to be a gap support formed on 9 Nov 09 as well.  Immediate resistance is provided by the 200dMA at 51c and this coincides with the 78.6% Fibo line.

Golden Agri’s price target cut to $0.62 by CIMB
Tuesday, 08 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Healthway Medical:  News that Peter Lim became a substantial shareholder of Healthway Medical has given the share price a lift. Volume expanded today as price touched a high of 17.5c before closing at 17c. MFI is now testing 50% while OBV has risen. MACD continues to rise above the signal line in positive territory. There is no doubt that this counter is seeing a trend reversal. Continuing rise in price would find resistance at 18.5c.  Breaking 18.5c would suggest that we have seen a double bottom formation and would establish 13.5c as a very important support in future.  If 18.5c fails to be taken out, we might see a triple top formation.  In the meantime, congratulations to all who are still vested and do keep an eye out for any negative divergences.

STI slips 0.2% to 2,746.61 at closing
Tuesday, 08 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 21.5c. MACD has completed its turn downwards towards zero. OBV continues to decline suggesting distribution is taking place although a rising MFI suggests that positive buying momentum is still present.  I would accumulate on weakness.

STI may fall; markets to remain stifled, says DMG
Tuesday, 08 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Sell signal on the MACD histogram was confirmed today. MFI has been forming lower highs as volume shrank. The rebound in price has weakening technicals. I am inclined to believe that the symmetrical triangle would resolve itself on the downside.

NOL: Declining 20dMA is set to form a dead cross with the flat 100dMA.  Price has not been able to overcome resistance provided by the 100dMA on three recent occasions with the latest attempt three sessions ago looking tired. MFI formed a lower high after testing 50% as resistance a few sessions ago.  Since touching a low together with a low in price on 25 May, the OBV has been rising which suggests accumulation activity. This may well limit the downside for this counter.