Cache Logistics Trust: Still on my watchlist.

I hardly talk about Cache Logistics Trust but regular readers would know that this is on my watchlist. With an annualised DPU of 7.76c, at today's closing price of 94c, the distribution yield would be 8.26%. Still not attractive enough for me but I recognise its strong numbers which would convince me to start a small long position if price would decline to test its historical low of 91.5c for a yield of 8.48%.

Here are the numbers as at 30 Sep 10:
Gearing: 23.4%.
NAV/unit: 88c.
Interest cover: 9.2x.
Portfolio 100% leased.
WALE: 5.8 years.

Substantial institutional shareholders:
JPMorgan Chase   9%
Morgan Stanley     7%
The Capital Group 6%
Amundi                 7%

How likely is it for the Trust to retest 91.5c? Since 22 Sep, the OBV has been in decline, though bumpy. This suggests that there is gradual distribution going on. The MACD has also been on a decline. Volume is, however, very thin. Price could be quite volatile.

Anyway, if I get some units here, it is a move to diversify my portfolio but it is not absolutely necessary. If the price does not decline to the level I feel comfortable with, I would give it a miss.

See 3Q 2010 slides here.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Low gearing.

First REIT: Quiet confidence.

First REIT experienced much lower trading volume today. The frantic selling of nil-paid rights was noticeably absent today.

Well, today is the last day of trading for the nil-paid rights. Without the option of an arbitrage, investors interested in First REIT would only have the option of buying the mother units from now on. I expect this to return greater stability to First REIT's unit price which could turn buoyant in the near future.

Immediate support at 68.5c, as provided by the 100dMA.  Immediate resistance at 70c, as provided by the 50dMA.

Related post:
First REIT: A bullish harami.

Golden Agriculture: Waiting for a pullback.

I have been saying to stay cautious on Golden Agriculture for quite some time now. Am I going to change my tune? Unfortunately, it is more of the same. Waiting for a pullback before loading up would be the prudent thing to do.

The negative divergences are too glaring for comfort. The MACD and MFI are both forming lower highs as the price formed higher highs. Trading volume has also been declining as price rose.

I will bide my time.

CapitaMalls Asia: Bought some at $1.85.

Just last night, I said "With all the momentum oscillators forming lower highs and the OBV showing obvious distribution, going long on this counter now would be most risky. Any upmove could simply be a rebound from oversold conditions and would find immediate resistance at $2, a recently many times tested resistance level and it is also where we find the declining 20dMA. I have my eyes on $1.88 and $1.85 as possible fair entry prices."

Well, my overnight BUY queue at $1.85 was filled. What is my plan now? Well, prices don't go down in a straight line. If there is a rebound, I expect resistance at $2.00 and that is where I would divest for a trade. The likelihood of this happening in the next few weeks is not at all remote.  Look at the MFI, it seems to be forming higher lows. There is still some underlying demand for this counter's stocks, it would seem.

However, looking at how the volume expanded dramatically today, almost tripling compared to yesterday, we cannot help but wonder if price could weaken further. Using two sets of Fibo lines, the first using $1.91 as the extreme low and the second using $1.84 as the extreme low, we see $1.65 showing up as 161.8% Fibo line in the former and 138.2% Fibo line in the latter.  That is the ultimate strong support in case of a continuing sell down with heavy volume. That's a fair bit to fall from $1.85 and I will have my warchest ready.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing historical low.