AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 22c support.

Unlike China Hongxing I blogged about just now, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is something I am heavily vested in. The investment decision was made based on the REIT's sound fundamentals and relatively high yield. I also like what the technicals are telling me now.

Today, I received an email from a reader asking if the high volume is a sign of some big boys slugging it out. I don't know, of course. However, if we check the trade summary, there are about 4.1m units bought up and 4.1m units sold down throughout the day. Of course, almost 5m units changed hands before the market opened at 8.35am. Price? All at 22c. I shan't bother trying to guess what is happening behind the scenes as that would probably just give me a headache and more white hair. Totally unproductive.

However, technically, the charts show that the trendline resistance, which is at 22.5c, remains unbroken. Support remains at 22c. That the support is still holding up despite a much higher volume on a black candle day, with obvious ongoing distribution which is easily seen in a plunging OBV, is very encouraging. Support is strong.

The MFI plunged but is still above its trendline support. The MACD, which broke out of its downtrend some sessions back, is still in positive territory and above the signal line. We want to see the MFI bouncing off its support and the MACD turning up once more. If these happen, resistance at 22.5c would, more likely than not, break in time and we could see the high of 23.5c tested eventually.

Notice:
The unaudited financial results for third quarter ended 31 December 2010 will be released on 25 January 2011, after market close.
Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Firm support.

Back in Singapore and China Hongxing.

I am back from a short holiday. Feeling somewhat exhausted. Probably got much more sun and walking than I am used to in Singapore but I guess it is not a bad thing. If you are wondering where did I go, I went on a cruise with my parents on the Star Virgo. Very enjoyable, as usual, but the internet connection sucks.

The internet connection on the ship is via satellite and it took 5 minutes to load a page! The service was charged at 23c per minute. So, imagine how costly it would be if I were to log on for an hour and, of course, would get to see about 12 pages only! Anyway, I am back at home now and thankful for my ADSL modem.

I am blogging about China Hongxing simply because I received two comments on this counter while I was away. I am not vested.

The wickless white candle formed on 7 Jan was very bullish but there was no follow through and on 10 Jan (Monday), a doji was formed on the back of high volume, signalling indecision. However, the fact that price did not fall below the immediate support provided by the 100dMA at 17.5c  was encouraging. The bears did not win the battle.

In the following two sessions, dragonfly dojis were formed on low volume. Both bulls and bears are being cautious. So, good time to go long? Well, the higher lows on the MACD, MFI and RSI are obvious. There is positive momentum. RSI is overbought but that could stay overbought for a while more especially as we do not see the MFI in overbought territory. Look at the OBV and we do not see any distribution.

In case price breaks immediate support at 17.5c, a longer term and stronger support is at 15.5c. This is where the rising 200dMA is approximating and it is also where the trendline support is found. 15.5c could provide a much nicer entry level for long only traders. Of course, a further strengthening in price could still see 20c tested.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Eyeing 20c.

China Hongxing: Eyeing 20c.

One blog post for the road. :)

I have not had much luck with China Hongxing, having lost some money trading this counter twice in the last few months. I am no longer vested and it seems that things are looking up for this counter. In the last session, China Hongxing broke resistance at 17.5c. This was after closing above the 17c neckline of what is now clearly a double bottom formation on 4 January.

The OBV shows gradual accumulation while the momentum oscillators are all rising. The MACD is rising in positive territory, indicating the return of positive momentum. A higher low on the MFI as it continues to rise suggests firm demand although the RSI has risen into overbought territory. Continuing upmove in price with higher volume could see it test resistance at 20c eventually while 17.5 is immediate support in case of a pull back. Good luck to all who are vested.

First REIT: Retesting high at 75c.

Today, First REIT hit a high of 75.5c before retreating to 75c, the high achieved on 2 and 3 Dec 10, adjusted for the recent rights issue. OBV shows ongoing accumulation while the MFI shows firm demand. The RSI has entered overbought territory but in very sanguine circumstances, it could stay overbought for a while more.

71c was a many times tested resistance which should turn strong support. It is also where we find the 50d and 20d MAs approximating. The 20dMA is also poised to form a golden cross with the 50dMA at this price level. Anyone who bought more units of First REIT, confident of its sound fundamentals during its recent troubled rights issue is now amply rewarded.

Could this REIT's unit price go higher? Your guess is as good as mine but you might remember that I have a fair value estimate of 80c per unit for this REIT. Apparently, OCBC Research thinks it is worth much more with a fair value of 84c per unit. The listed positives are:

1. Good quality assets.

2. Strong and committed sponsor.

3. Steady and sustainable income.

4. Potential upside.

Read the report at http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/First_REIT-110107-OIR.pdf

Related post:
First REIT: Excess rights not enough.