Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.

It has been some time since I wrote about Courage Marine. With the BDI in a downtrend, there was no reason to go long on this counter. The last time I did something pertaining to this counter was a divestment when news of a dual listing in Hong Kong was made known.

However, as I like the company, I have been tracking its performance which is of course closely tied to the BDI as most of its revenue is derived from spot rates.

The BDI was consolidating for many months. Since hitting a low in early 2011, 1,250 has been established as a support, four times tested no less. 1,500 was breached recently and retested successfully as support. The BDI has broken out of its consolidation phase and we could be seeing a trend reversal starting in earnest.

Courage Marine's share price went lower than its low of end 2008 recently. This means that the market expects the company to do worse than it did in the last recession but with the BDI breaking out of its consolidation phase to the upside, the fundamentals seem to suggest something else.

So, I have tip-toed back into Courage Marine, re-initiating a long position in the company. Technically, I am wary of initiating too big a long position because the declining 20dMA could push price lower again. If price were to overcome the 20dMA convincingly, we could see 12.5c and 13.5c tested next.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Profit warning.

Bullish on Noble, IndoAgri, Genting and DBS?

I was reading The Straits Times online edition. Yup! AK71 is catching up with the Times! I love this pun!

There is an interesting article by Andy Mukherjee titled "Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings" and he selected four stocks as examples.

Andy is of the opinion that "analysts are overly bullish. They are beginning to turn nervous, but are far from throwing in the towel."

He also said that "for choppy markets to get better, sentiment must first hit rock bottom. Like it did in the first quarter of 2009."

Stock #1: Noble Group

"Analysts are still wildly bullish about Noble... (with) consensus estimate for the stock (suggesting) a 35 per cent upside.

"Noble shares fell more than 80 per cent between June and October 2008."

Stock #2: Indofood Agri Resources

"With the hiving off of Salim Ivomas Pratama, .. the company is sitting S$860 million in cash, with little clarity from management on future expansion. Meanwhile, the profit accruing to Indofood shareholders grew less than expected in the June quarter... The consensus estimate for the stock's target price is about 33 per cent higher than the current price."

Stock #3: Genting Singapore

"Chip volumes declined 13 per cent from the previous three months... Overall, though, the analyst community is still gung-ho on Genting... (and) the consensus target price is still 28 per cent higher than the market price."

Stock # 4: DBS

".. local currency interbank rates in Singapore... have collapsed. One key rate - the swap offer rate - has even turned negative.... The consensus in the analyst community, however, is that DBS Group's fair value is 28 per cent higher than what the stock currently sells for.

"If the Singapore economy slips into a technical recession this quarter and loan growth slows markedly, then the lingering optimism on DBS could dissipate. That could be risky for investors.

"For now, the cash in your mattress is quite safe where it is. If you really want to do something with your money, consider stocks with high dividend yields."

I do not think staying in cash 100% is a good idea since Mr. Market has a way of surprising us sometimes. Will we have a recession for sure? What if markets simply continue to trade sideways while inflation rages on?

Even famed New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, a perpetual bear, puts the risk of a double dip recession at 60 per cent probability and not anything closer to 100 per cent certainty.

The more we expect something to happen, the more it might not happen. So, without perfect knowledge, the best strategy, in my opinion, is to have a warchest ready even as we stay invested.

Oh, I am not vested in any of the above stocks.

Related posts:
1. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
2. Sleep well at night with a plan.
3. Stock market analysts.
4. A capital question: How much to have or how much to use?
5. Investing in REITs: A flawed strategy?
6. Dr Marc Faber: How not to lose money?

Wage slaves should be fearful.

I had a conversation with someone who said he is living hand to mouth and that he is somewhat worried with how things are developing in the world now.

Although Asia is where we find economic growth these days and it explains why people are flocking here as they look for better opportunities, if a global recession should transpire, Singapore is unlikely to be spared. 

In fact, we are likely to suffer more than others due to our very open economy which is highly dependent on external demand. Many are likely to lose their jobs in such a situation.






So, my friend is right to be fearful if he was indeed living hand to mouth. If he should become unemployed, he would be in deep trouble. For people like him, we cannot even start talking about investing in the stock market.

Using some common sense, what would I do if I were him? He must first get his finances in order:

1.  Look at his expenses. See what are necessities and what are not. Remove the latter, mercilessly.

For example, I know someone who sold his 5 year old car recently because the very bouyant COE prices now means that he could sell his car at a higher price than two years ago, minimising losses, losing $6K instead of >$10K. He now saves $800 a month in monthly repayment and is taking public transport for now. The car was not a necessity.

2.  Save money! Make sure he saves enough money to cover at least a year's worth of expenses. This will be his emergency funds. In case he should be retrenched in the next recession, he would have ample time to look for a job.

Some financial advisors say putting aside 6 months salary is the rule of thumb. For me, I would say measuring how much we should put aside in terms of expenses is more meaningful. If we should have enough money put aside to cover expenses for 10 years, not considering inflationary pressures, are we recession proof?






3.  Any money in excess of the emergency funds, he should put to work, investing for greater returns. Having excessive savings is silly given the paltry interest payment on savings.

Having said this, with the stock market weakening continually now, we should be prudent and not throw everything including the kitchen sink into stocks.

4.  I would also suggest that he looks into ways of increasing his income in his current job or a new job. He might also want to look for supplementary income. Be more productive.

No one owes us a living. Unless we can show that we can make valuable contributions, no one will think we are valuable enough to pay us!

Living hand to mouth is being a wage slave. Wage slaves are pitiful but someone who is living like a wage slave when he does not have to is NOT pitiful.

Note:
Wage slavery refers to a situation where a person's livelihood depends on wages, especially when the dependence is total and immediate. (Source: Wikipedia.)

Related posts:
1. Needs and wants.
2. Do you want to be richer?