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Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

Friday, April 23, 2010




CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.



The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.




Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.



China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.


Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.



Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.


The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.





Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi AK71,
Won't you consider China Hongxin for longer term? as many people were expecting Hongxin to benefit in mid-term due to yuan appreciation

AK71 said...

Hi Anonymous,

I know very little about China Hongxing's business. I won't usually invest in a business for the longer term unless I have done a reasonably good FA on it that gave me a green light.

For China Hongxing, it was really a trading position based on just TA on my part.

There are many other companies with strong fundamentals which will benefit from a stronger RMB in time. From this angle, it is not good enough a reason to be vested in China Hongxing for the longer term.

Anonymous said...

I added your posts to my RSS on my iphone :)

--charlesming

AK71 said...

Wah, iPhone? You too? You have joined the ranks of the iPhone junkies, brudder! ;)

Anonymous said...

I was looking at a report by phillip securities, and wonder why is the valuation of Golden Agri so low (in terms of P/B and P/E) as compared to other crude palm oil stocks like wilmar and indo agri? Is it because of it's huge market cap?

-Kelvin

AK71 said...

Hi Kelvin,

Yes, it is very obvious when we look at the numbers that Golden Agriculture is the most undervalued CPO play listed in Singapore. There are many reasons given for this ranging from how they do not have enough exposure to China to how they are too dependent on CPO production. So, it is viewed as a more extreme play.

Well, if you believe like I do that CPO price is going to be higher in time, Golden Agriculture is the company to be vested in as it will be the biggest beneficiary of such a development since it has most of its earnings leveraged to the price of CPO. :)

Anonymous said...

Hi AK71
Are you saying that it is good to accumulate Golden Agriculture at 60c now for a longer term profit?

AK71 said...

Hi Anonymous,

Fundamentally, Golden Agriculture is undervalued. Technically, the longer term uptrend is intact. So, at this point in time, FA and TA both agree that this counter will go higher. However, there might be a better entry point in the near future. I always like buying on pullbacks.

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