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Charts in brief: 7 Jun 10.

Monday, June 7, 2010

FSL Trust: Formed a white hammer, closing at 45c after gapping down to start the day at 44.5c.  Closing at 45c is below the trendline support in the short term. Could we be seeing the start of a bottoming process with 42.5c as the base and 46c as the neckline? Could we be seeing the start of a trading range with support at 42.5c and resistance at 46c?  Although the MACD is above the signal line, it remains in negative territory. The MFI has peeked above 50% and the OBV is flattish.  Selling pressure has abated.  That much is obvious.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: We have a sell signal on the MACD histogram. The MACD seems to be flattening as the signal line continues rising to catch up.  OBV is rounding from a peak although MFI is above 50% and rising gently.  Still, I would like to sell some at 23c, the top of the trading range but I might not get my wish.  Immediate support is at 21.5c.

SPH: The white spinning top formed last Friday was confirmed today as a reversal signal.  Price gapped down from the opening bell and did not once trade above the 200dMA at $3.72. All the technicals suggest that SPH is going to see more weakness in time. Volume expanded today as we have a sell signal on the MACD.  I was waiting to sell more at S$3.83 last week but that price did not happen.

CapitaMalls Asia: Although we have a white candle today, it was on reduced volume. The negative divergence between price and volume is obvious.  Sell signal seen on the MACD.  MFI has been forming lower highs in the short term.  OBV is lacklustre.  I still see a symmetrical triangle and this needs to be resolved.  Otherwise, the situation remains dicey although I believe there is a downward bias.


jason said...

Hi AK71, just in case you missed this:

FSL's Verona I arrested
An MR tanker at the centre of a chartering dispute has been arrested in Japan for allegedly not paying its bunker bill.

Singapore-based Daxin Petroleum Pte has had the 47,496-dwt Verona I (built 2006) arrested in Shimotsu on 4 June.

“The amount claimed is unknown at the time of this announcement,” said the trustee managers of First Ship Lease Trust (FSL Trust), the ship’s owners.

“We intend to defend its position vigorously and is currently exploring all available legal options,” the trustee managers said.

It added that the immediate focus will be on securing the release of the product tanker.

The Verona I is one of two ships FSL Trust has on long term charter to Russian company Groda Shipping & Transport.

Last month Groda said it was handing back the two ships and would cease to make the monthly charter payments.

The Verona I and the 47,470-dwt Nika I (built 2005) are on seven year bareboat charters at $20,700 per day until November 2014.

The two ships were acquired in November 2007 for $113m in a sale-and-lease-back deal. The two ships contribute 15% of FSL Trust’s revenue.

By Dale Wainwright in Singapore
Published: 01:27 GMT, 07 Jun 10 | updated: 01:55 GMT, 07 Jun 10

AK71 said...

Hi Jason,

Yes, I know this. That is what the link to the article in The EDGE is about. Thanks for keeping an eye on this for me though. ;)

Remember how the stock market continued to power upwards last year in spite of all the bad news? That was a bull in full charge. The opposite is true when a bear is in full charge: the market will continue to sink in spite of good news!

With FSL Trust, in spite of this bit of bad news, there was no massive sell off. This further suggests to me that this counter is starting a basing process. Of course, this is really my own deduction and has not been confirmed by TA although, technically, there are signs that this might be the case.

Based on FA, a reduction in dpu to only 1 USc per quarter is probable. Given this worst case scenario, the yield based on the current price of 45c is 11.6% which is decent. FSL would also be trading at almost a 30% discount to NAV at the current price. However, the gearing of >100% is still a bugbear. My recent purchases of units in FSL Trust are therefore more for trading.

Anonymous said...

might form a double bottom? just like genting?

AK71 said...

Hi ezinvest,

You are referring to FSL Trust? A mini double bottom is possible. It would be 42.5c bottom, 46c neckline, 49.5c immediate target. Good enough for a trade. Of course, this is just us guessing. ;-p

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