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I spend a lot of time replying to emails from readers, even more time than I spend blogging. So, I treat these conversations as blog posts and share what I feel is worth sharing in my blog. In doing so, I am always careful not to reveal names or email addresses, for examples, so that privacy is not compromised. I believe that such sharing will benefit many and hurt no one. I hope readers who choose to write to me agree. :)

Charts in brief: 9 Jul 10.

Friday, July 9, 2010

NOL: This counter touched a high of $2.07 which is the initial resistance identified earlier. Volume is much lower today as it closed at $2.06, 5c higher than the previous session. The MACD has crossed the signal line and returned to positive territory at the same time. OBV continues to climb, suggesting further accumulation is taking place.

What has formed could be a symmetrical triangle. With the negative divergence between price and volume largely corrected, we could see a breakout in the next session which could eventually see price testing the high of $2.35 touched on 15 April.  Before that happens, expect multiple resistance along the way.  In case price fails to move higher, immediate support is at $2.00.

Genting SP: Continues to be resisted at $1.20. Volume is declining. MFI which accounts for price and volume is declining and forming lower highs.  Demand is falling.  OBV is tired looking. The Bollinger bands seem to be in the early stage of narrowing.  Could the price move higher? With the 20dMA still rising, the shorter term uptrend is intact. It remains to be seen if the 20dMA could push the price higher. This is not for the faint hearted.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 8 Jul 10.

Raffles Education: A spectacular white candle.

Volume expanded nicely as a wickless white candle was formed. Price broke resistance at 29c as provided by the 20dMA and closed at 32c resistance, provided by the 50dMA. Is this the extent of the upmove or would the price move higher? The RSI has been forming higher lows of late.  The MFI too.  Momentum and demand are positive in the short term but it could be a reaction to the oversold situation.  

If this is just a rebound, we could see the downtrend resistance at 33.5c capping further gains.  The MACD is rising but still in negative territory.  So, the possibility that this could be a short lived rebound cannot be discounted.

This counter has been in a downtrend since it peaked in Jun 09. Every single rally attempt was capped by downtrend resistance. Looking at the MFI over a longer period, we would realise that it has been forming lower highs since early this year. This affirms a longer term weakness in demand.  So, for people considering a punt, be careful.

We want to see volume expand more significantly, taking out 33.5c resistance, if a reversal should take place.  This would break out of the shorter term downtrend resistance.  Next resistance level would be at 35c then.

Tea with AK71: Hope.

I coined a phrase "Hope Analysis" aka "HA" a few years ago amongst my investor friends. This is a word play on FA and TA. In those days, I was a FA guy and not a very good one too. Did not know anything about TA yet.  Then, there were people who would buy stocks based on gut feel and hope for the best.  These were the people whom I called HA practitioners. Cheeky of me, I know.

Actually, there is nothing seriously wrong with HA.  We are human beings after all and there must always be hope or else life would be bleak indeed.  I remember receiving pamphlets in my letterbox when I was much younger with words in big bold letters: "There is Hope!".  Ok, ok, I am being cheeky again.

When we use FA, we can only hope that we have done a good, thorough job of it. We can only hope that things would turn out the way we think they should.  When we use TA, we might also hope that things would go the way we think they should.  Of course, some hard core FA or TA practitioners would say that hope should not be in the picture.  Some would say that FA is about skills and foresight and TA is emotionless and we should just let the charts talk.

More enlightened practitioners would realise that, whether FA or TA, there are no absolutes.  Everything is about probabilities.  The closest we can get to being absolute is therefore 99.9999%.  Ok, you might want to add more 9s if you like to infinity but you get the point.  99.9999% is as fine a gold bullion as we can get as well.  I doubt we can find 100% pure gold in this world.  Impurities? You bet. They are part and parcel of life.  We can reduce impurities but it is near impossible to eliminate them.

What about FA plus TA? Well, it is just another approach.  I dare say that HA has a place too. Good luck.

A movie: "The Sorcerer's Apprentice"

Cool! I must try to catch this one:

Charts in brief: 8 Jul 10.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia:  Is this counter just rebounding from oversold levels or is this the beginning of an uptrend? The recent low of 6 Jul at $2.02 helped to establish the third fan line.  This is a gentler uptrend compared to the earlier two fan lines.  All three fan lines originate from the same low of $1.91 achieved on 7 May. Distribution reached a peak on 2 Jul as volume expanded on two consecutive black candle days. The lower volume on the two black candle days compared to higher volume on up days after that suggests that we have reached a floor and price is turning up. Volume expanded today as price moved higher to close at $2.07.  Forming a doji, however, suggests that the buying lacks conviction. Immediate resistance at $2.10 and if momentum stays positive, we might see $2.13 tested too.

Golden Agriculture: Negative divergence between price and volume is quite obvious to me. Today's white candle has closed above the downtrend resistance. However, this was achieved on much lower volume. Is this sustainable? Theoretically, no. Next resistance at 55c. CPO continues its downtrend and is at RM2,290 today. The double top achieved earlier this year at about RM2,700 could see price of CPO correcting to about RM2,100 in time.  This is not good for Golden Agriculture's bottom line.

Genting SP: Continuing its levitation act despite an obvious negative divergence between price and volume. MFI, which accounts for price and volume, is in a downtrend.  Demand has fallen but price remains quite bouyant. Unless volume expands significantly and the resistance at $1.20 is taken out convincingly soon, this is a sign of churning and perilous for anyone who chooses to go long now. A retracement would find initial support at $1.12.

NOL: Volume expanded tremendously as price gapped up and formed an impressive white candle. Breaking resistance formed by a confluence of MAs is likely to see price moving higher.  I see initial resistance provided by the downtrend resistance at $2.07 in the next session.

LMIR: Technically, I still see a negative divergence between price and the MFI. The doji formed today could even be the set up of an evening star pattern. Having said this, if the uptrend support holds up if next tested, it could be a sign of firm underlying support and the rising OBV since price touched a low of 42c on 25 May does suggest that there is more accumulation than distribution going on.

LMIR: Gravestone doji.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

After a valiant attempt to break out of resistance in late June as price hit a high of 48.5c, LMIR has retreated to close at 46.5c today, forming a gravestone doji in the process.  This took place after a session of high volume buy ups yesterday when a white candle was formed but ultimately, the price was resisted by a combination of the 20d and 50d MAs at 47c.

It is clear from the OBV that since hitting a high of 48.5c on 22 Jun, there has been greater distribution than accumulation of units of LMIR.  The RSI has been forming lower highs which suggests a sustained momentum in the price decline. The MFI enjoyed a brief bump upwards yesterday as volume rose on a white candle day. It has, however, turned down again today. The MACD is below the signal line and looks set to cross into negative territory. The technicals are, undoubtedly, bearish.

FSL Trust: Above the 20dMA.

FSL Trust, for the first time since 23 April, closed above the 20dMA which is currently at 38.5c. Bollinger bands are squeezing which indicates the possibility of a big move in either direction.  In this case, chances are the move would be positive.

Momentum oscillators continue to rise.  The MFI has formed another higher low as it rises above 50%.  Demand is back. RSI too formed a higher low which suggests that price is rising at a good pace. OBV is flattish which suggests a lack of heavy distribution.  Perhaps, the sellers are done selling.  MACD continues to rise above the signal line but is still in negative territory.  This could just be a rebound.  Although volume increased today, it is rather modest compared to the volumes on the black candle days which sent the price down to where it is today. Volume will have to expand more meaningfully in future sessions to try and push the price higher.

The low of 11 Jun at 36c could indeed have been the bottom.  However, we need confirmation in the next session that the 20dMA at 38.5c is indeed resistance turned support. Once confirmed, price could possibly rise to close the gap at 43.5c which approximates the declining 50dMA if momentum remains positive.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Land ahoy?

Golden Agriculture: Rebounding.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Golden Agriculture dipped briefly below the 200dMA before moving higher to close at resistance provided by the 50dMA at 53.5c.  This coincides with the trendline resistance which connects the high of 26 April at 62c and the lower high of 21 Jun at 55.5c.  This is the second downtrend. The first one connects the high of 26 April and the lower high of 13 May at 56.5c.  The second downtrend is gentler than the first and less dramatic.

Although trading volume increased today, it is not very heavy.  This might just be a rebound but if we believe in fan lines, price could move higher to break the trendline resistance to retest 55c as resistance.  This resistance level is quite obvious from past candlesticks and it is also where we find the flattish 100dMA. If the rebound is strong, price could even go up to 56c to retest resistance established earlier in May when the lower high of 56.5c was formed.  That, I believe, might be the extent of the current upmove.

MFI, a momentum oscillator which accounts for both price and volume has been in decline and this suggests a weakening demand. Price is probably moving up due to a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers. OBV is up which suggests that some accumulation is happening and there is some support. Downside could thus be limited.

Price of CPO is still entrenched in a downtrend and it does not look like the situation would be improving anytime soon.  The fundamentals are not strong but the share price is enjoying a bounce.  Immediate support at 52c and immediate resistance is at 53.5c.  If resistance is taken out, next resistance is a band from 55c to 56c.

Charts in brief: 5 Jul 10.

Monday, July 5, 2010

NOL: MFI did not manage to recapture 50% as support and its continuing decline suggests a lack of demand.  RSI similarly did not manage to recapture 50% as support and this suggests the speed of decline in price is relentless. Downtrend in price is intact. Since forming an inverted hammer on 21 Jun, volume has increased as price declined.  In the last two sessions, trading volume has fallen somewhat. This might or might not be a temporary respite.  I see support at the flat 200dMA, $1.83, and resistance at a confluence of MAs, $1.98.

SPH: Price touched a high of $3.88 again. MFI is rising sharply.  Demand is strong.  OBV is rising.  Accumulation is ongoing. Volume is, however, a tad lower today.  Breaking $3.88 could possibly see a target at $4.08 reached. Resistance at $3.95, the lower high formed on 10 May, would have to be taken out first, in such a case.

Metro: This counter has been in a downtrend since it peaked on 7 Jan, touching a high of 90.5c. Since May, indicators are showing some strength returning.  MFI has been climbing since late May.  OBV has been rising since late May.  RSI has been rising since early May.  The peak in distribution happened on 25 May as an ugly black candle was accompanied by a huge spike in trading volume.  A low of 73.5c was touched in two separate sessions on 21 May and 7 Jun.  That likely is the immediate support for now.  With momentum oscillators bouyant, it is unlikely that 73.5c would be taken out anytime soon.  In fact, the 20dMA has been rising gently since middle of June. The trend is still down but the worst might just be over, for now.

Related posts:
NOL: Downtrend.
Charts in brief: 2 Jul 10.

K-Green Trust: A stable source of passive income.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

I spent some time recently looking into the latest trust to list in the stock market here: K-Green Trust (KGT). This is an infrastructure business trust listed by Keppel Corporation recently. Initially, it only has three assets:

1. Senoko Waste-to-Energy Plant
(Concession period: 15 years from 1 Sep 09)

2. Keppel Seghers Tuas Waste-to-Energy Plant
(Concession period: 25 years from 30 Oct 09)

3. Keppel Seghers Ulu Pandan NEWater Plant
(Concession period: 20 years from 28 March 07)

The Waste-to-Energy plants treat close to half of Singapore's incinerable waste while the NEWater plant is one of Singapore's largest.

The main attraction of this trust is the stability of its non-cyclical cash flows and a lack of counter-party risks as its customers are NEA and PUB.

Using the usual metrics for analysing trusts, we find that KGT has zero gearing, has an estimated dpu of 7.82c (which translates into a yield of 7.38% based on the last traded price of $1.06) and is currently trading at a 5.5% discount to its NAV of $1.12. Although the small discount to NAV is unattractive, the zero gearing is.  There is room for KGT to gear up to, say, 40% and improve its dpu in time.

Stable cash flow, low risk and room to grow.  This sounds like a good addition to my passive income portfolio. It diversifies my income stream and injects a higher level of stability at the same time. The lower yield is acceptable because of its debt free balance sheet.  When a balance sheet is heavy in debt, the risk is higher and, consequently, I would demand a higher yield.

I would like to buy some units of KGT but how much would I pay? On its first day of trading, KGT started off at $1.17 and hit a high of $1.33 and closed at $1.11. Usually, I would depend on TA here but being so new in its listing, four days old, to be exact, TA is impossible. However, we can see that it reached a low of $1.00 on 1 Jul and formed a white candle with a long upper wick on 2 Jul as it closed at $1.06.  This suggests some selling pressure.

Why the selling pressure? If we remember that KGT units were actually given to existing shareholders of Keppel Corporation as a special dividend, the reason becomes apparent. Some shareholders are monetising their "dividends".  If this continues to play out and if the buying interest does not strengthen to counter balance the selling pressure, KGT unit price could go lower.

I would be quite happy to collect some units at $1.00 which would give a yield of 7.82% to begin with.

K-Green Trust rated hold
Monday, 28 June 2010

China Hongxing: Bottoming?

In an earlier analysis on 14 March, I mentioned that "A broader head and shoulders pattern which stretched over a duration of about nine months is now quite obvious.  This, coupled with the obvious downtrend of all the moving averages suggest that more downside is on the cards.  Accumulating at supports in an uptrend is a good idea.  Accumulating at supports in a downtrend is a different story as supports could quickly become resistance.

"Using Fibo lines, we see that 14.5c is a 123.6% support.  Unless there is an upmove with meaningful volume in the near future, a test of the 138.2% Fibo support is most likely and that is at 13c.  Thereafter, the 150% Fibo support is at 12c. Further downside cannot be discounted as a valid head and shoulders pattern would see the ultimate downside target somewhere at 10c

Although 11.5c is now a many times tested support since 24 May, is it the bottom or just a floor?  On 15 Jun, volume expanded as the 20dMA resistance at 12c was taken out. The following session saw a follow through that tested the resistance provided by the 50dMA at 13.5c. The euphoria was short lived as the 50dMA proved too strong to be taken out and price has been pushed down since.  The 20dMA is once again resistance at 12c and, in the last session, a gravestone doji was formed as price closed once more at 11.5c.

A very interesting fact is found in the OBV.  Although the price is clearly in a downtrend, OBV is flattish. This suggests a lack of heavy distribution. Also, as price fell, volume has generally declined with the exception of one or two sessions. These observations suggest that most of the sellers are probably done selling by now.

The 20dMA has flattened which suggests that the short term downtrend has halted. However the longer term MAs are still declining. So, the trend is still down. However, if we look at the MACD, it has formed a higher low and has recently flattened.  Despite being in negative territory, this positive divergence between price and MACD is an indicator that the downtrend is losing strength.

Should we jump back in and go long here?  Looking at the momentum oscillators, we see that the MFI is down both over the shorter term as well as the longer term. This suggests a lack of demand.  The RSI shows the same picture which suggests a sustained momentum in the decline in price. These indicators are not spotting any positive divergence with price.

So, the conclusion is that although the speed of decline has slowed and the counter seems to have found a stronger support at 11.5c, the trend is still down and the momentum is negative. The price action of this counter has proven treacherous before and unless there is a clear sign of bottoming, I would avoid going long.  Any long position taken here should be a smallish hedge and nothing more.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Downside target?

Charts in brief: 2 Jul 10.

Friday, July 2, 2010

AIMS AMP Cap Ind REIT: Volume rose today as more shares changed hands at the 21.5c support.  MFI declined sharply as short term demand seems to have disappeared. In spite of this, there is no sharp decline in the OBV.  Instead, it is flattish which suggests a lack of heavy distribution activity. From the high achieved on 3 Jun, price seems to be doing a low volume pullback to support.  If 21.5c support should break, I would be happy to buy more at the long term support of 20.5c.  Based on FA, I think that is a very attractive price. TA is more mutable and needs to be looked at again at that point in time.

According to DTZ Research, the improving Singapore economy has caused industrial rents in Singapore to rise for the first time after quarters of decline since Q3 2008.
DTZ’s latest report on industrial property stated, “Average monthly gross rents of first-storey private industrial space edged up 2.6% quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) to $2.00 per sq ft and 3.2% QOQ to $1.60 per sq ft for upper-storey space per month. Since the height in Q3 2008, average monthly gross rents of first-storey and upper-storey private industrial space have fallen 14.9% and 22.0% respectively.”
However, the research consultancy reported that “rents for hi-tech industrial properties, which include business park and science park space, were unchanged at $3.15 per sq per month in Q2 2010.”Article here.

Healthway Medical: Clinging on to support at 19c while forming a gravestone doji is ominous. The rising 20dMA is exactly at 19c now.  Will it push the price higher in the next session or will it fail as support? The MFI, which accounts for price and volume and is a measure of demand is clearly in decline.  The OBV shows the sharpest drop in three weeks, suggesting that distribution is heightening. MACD continues to decline below the signal line. It is obvious that upward momentum and demand have both weakened. If 19c breaks as support, next support is not far away at 18.5c which was a resistance formed in March as price tried to advance higher then.

SPH: A friend asked me if he should sell his SPH shares today. Let's look at the chart.  With today's expansion in volume on a white candle day as price hit a high of $3.88 before closing at $3.85, SPH looks like it might be able to go higher. MFI has been forming higher lows, suggesting rising demand. RSI has been rising as well.  The MACD is still in positive territory.  In short, SPH is seeing some underlying strength. $3.88 is the resistance to watch.  If it breaks convincingly, I see an eventual target price of $4.08. I would be happy to sell more of my remaining shares in SPH then.

Related post:

CapitaMalls Asia: Downtrend continues.

CapitaMalls Asia: I warned that the retest of trendline support on 25 Jun could turn treacherous. On 27 Jun, we looked "at the MFI which accounts for both price and volume. Here, we have a less optimistic picture as the MFI has clearly broken its uptrend. This suggests that demand has dropped and that more selling is underway.  This is a major difference from when the trendline support in question was tested twice before. In those earlier tests, the MFI was still uptrending strongly. Technically, the picture is weaker now."

Anyone who heeded the warning delivered by the MFI would have been spared some losses. Has the picture changed? Well, if anything, it has deteriorated. As price declined from the high of 23 Jun, volume has expanded. MACD has dipped into negative territory while all the momentum oscillators continue to decline. Momentum has turned negative. MFI suggests that demand is much reduced.  RSI suggests that the speed of decline has accelerated. OBV suggests ongoing distribution. Immediate resistance at $2.07 and the next support is at $2.00.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Weakening technicals.

STI: 2400 is still a real possibility.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

It has been a while since I looked at the STI. Looking at it again today did not reveal anything alarming. Well, not alarming as in I did not see anything I did not expect to see.  The picture is still more negative than positive.

The MACD has been closing in on the signal line and is now set to do a bearish crossover. MFI, a measure of demand, has been in decline. RSI has also been in decline which suggests that the attempt to continue the longer term uptrend is sputtering.

Using the high of 15 April and the low of 25 May, if we draw some Fibo lines, it is interesting to see that the move up in the STI in recent sessions has met with resistance at the 38.2% line which is at 2,890.  This same resistance capped gains earlier in May.

If the STI is unable to break resistance at 2,890 this week, we would probably see the formation of a lower high on the weekly chart.  Two more sessions to go.  This has implications where chart patterns are concerned.  We might see the formation of a head and shoulders pattern which would be very bearish.

The rising 200dMA at 2,800 approximates the 61.8% Fibo line. This might give the STI some bounce but the bias is for a move downwards if resistance at 2,890 is not taken out convincingly. 

Breaking the previous low at 2,648 would probably see the STI sinking to the eventual target of 2,400 which, incidentally, is not a number plucked from the air but is provided by the 161.8% Fibo line.

Related post:
STI: Falling through the 200dMA.

NOL: Downtrend.

After hitting a high of $2.35 on 15 April, NOL was in a downtrend which was broken on 16 Jun on relatively high volume. Price hit a high of $2.13 on 21 Jun while forming an inverted white hammer, a reversal signal. This reversal signal was promptly confirmed in the next session. Forming a high of $2.13 on 21 Jun created a bearish picture because it was a lower high compared to the high of 13 May at $2.18.  This was a warning sign.

The MACD histogram turned red on 22 Jun while the RSI and OBV turned down the same day. Price has broken through various supports since then.  Price is currently resisted by the merged 20d and 100d MAs at $1.97.  With the 50dMA declining just above these merged MAs, it would be a difficult resistance to overcome without a buy up on massive volume.  Any upside could be resisted by the 50dMA just a few cents higher at $2.00. It seems that there are more sellers too if we notice how volume has increased as price declined since 21 Jun.  This is confirmed by the lower highs on the OBV which suggests that distribution activity has increased.

The MACD has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line and a retest of the flattening 200dMA which is currently at $1.83 seems likely.  As a support, the 200dMA was breached on three consecutive days in late May. So, this makes it somewhat unreliable and it is, therefore, a very important support to watch now.  If it manages to hold up, we would have a higher low formed.  A symmetrical triangle could then be in the works.  If the 200dMA support breaks, we could see the previous low of $1.75 tested.

Given the bearish technicals, I would sell at resistance at $1.97 if I have the chance to do so. If luck is on my side, I might even be able to sell at $2.00 on a possible whipsaw. Prices do not go down in a straight line and there could be little bumps up along the way.  So, a retest of the 100dMA as resistance again is possible. Of course, it might not be at $1.97 then. We want to sell at resistance and buy at supports.  Use the prevailing trend as a guide. Good luck.

Tea with AK71: iPhone with private videos.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

I was surprised to see a Nuffnang ad in my blog just now offering a $10,000 reward for the return of a lost iPhone with private videos. Owner: Mr. Eddy Sun.  This guy must be in his early 30s going by his email address: eddysun77@gmail.com.  He lost his phone at Borders last night.

He has put up a blog just for the purpose of recovering his iPhone and it comes with a video clip of him making a personal appeal:

His blog: http://helpfindmyphone.blogspot.com/

I am posting this to help the poor guy spread the word since his Nuffnang ad comes and goes. I don't make any money this way but what the heck. Just trying to help.

If this is real, I wish him luck.  If this is a prank, it is in very bad taste and it's not even Earl Grey!

Charts in brief: 29 Jun 10.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: $2.14 looks like it is support turned resistance. We will need confirmation tomorrow. Price touched a low of $2.07 (the 138.2% Fibo line) before closing at $2.11, just 1c shy of the 50dMA at $2.12. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line while the MFI continues to decline. There is a lack of demand at the moment and OBV suggests that distribution is ongoing.  It is also clear that as price fell from $2.22 five sessions ago, volume has expanded.  Immediate resistance is at $2.14 and immediate support is at $2.07.

Golden Agriculture: Formed an ugly black candle that is almost engulfing. Closing exactly on the 52c support after touching a low of 51.5c suggests that we might see continuing weakness, especially with momentum oscillators downtrending.  The MACD is about to form a bearish crossover. Next support remains at 50c.

Genting SP: It has been a while since I did a TA for this counter but Citibank says that this is one of their biggest SELL recommendations right now. That got me curious enough to look at the charts. For more than a week, this counter has been generating reversal signals: dojis and spinning tops. Today, volume expanded tremendously as price touched a high of $1.20 before closing at $1.15, forming a black candle.  MACD is about to form a bearish crossover. The RSI is at 87% and suggests that the rate of increase in its price has been too rapid.  MFI, on the other hand, is not in overbought territory yet and is still uptrending. OBV is flat which suggests that any selling is well absorbed. At the moment, the uptrend is still intact and immediate support is at $1.12 as suggested by candlesticks and the uptrend support line.

LMIR: Another lower high on the RSI as price formed a wickless black candle today, breaking the support at 47c to close at 46.5c. The lower Bollinger band is at 45.5c while I see a natural support at 45c. For anyone who wants to own some units of LMIR, buying smallish numbers at these prices could be good hedges.  I see 44.5c as a stronger support.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 28 Jun 10.

Charts in brief: 28 Jun 10.

Monday, June 28, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: This is hanging on to support at $2.14 but barely so as price touched a low of $2.11 today.  The 20dMA which is providing support at $2.14 seems to be flattening. More significantly, I would like to draw attention to the fact that closing at $2.14 today is different from closing at $2.14 last Friday because the uptrend is now broken.  MFI continues its decline and the MACD looks set for a bearish crossover with the signal line.  I would not go long at $2.14 now.  The downside risk is too high.

Golden Agriculture: An inverted white hammer on lower volume. Momentum oscillators are flattish.  There is just no oomph in the upward movement in price today as it touched a high of  54c before closing at 53c.  Immediate support at 52c as provided by the 20dMA.

Healthway Medical: Its price is showing resilience as trading volume declined. 19c has been established as the immediate support. OBV is flattish and there is no sign of distribution. However, MFI and RSI are both hugging the borders of their respective overbought zones.  Might this exert some downward pressure on price or is this counter just doing a correction using time and would resume its uptrend once the 20dMA catches up?

SPH: This counter has been delivering pleasant surprises lately. Today, it closed at $3.88.  This effectively overcame the declining 50dMA as resistance. $3.88 was the eventual target of a mini double bottom I identified some time back.  I also divested some shares at this price not too long ago. The move up today was not accompanied by an expansion in volume.  So, I am doubtful about its strength.  However, the MFI and RSI are both rising and their uptrends are intact.  Momentum is good and if the price continues rising to hit certain Fibo lines, I might sell more of my remaining shares.

Related posts:

CapitaMalls Asia: Weakening technicals.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia broke out of its symmetrical triangle on 16 Jun on higher volume. It then went on to break resistance provided by the declining 100dMA which coincided with the trendline resistrance on 21 Jun. It was not able to advance much further and I suggested looking at the 100dEMA which made it clear why it was so.

In the last session, support was provided by the rising 20dMA and a short white candle was formed. The 20dMA in recent sessions has merged with the trendline support and, theoretically, should be a strong support.  This is the third time this trendline support has been tested.  If a trader had bought some shares of CapitaMalls Asia each time its price tested this trendline support, he would have made some nice gains.  So, is it time to buy again?

If we look at the RSI, the uptrend is intact, which suggests that price is rising at a sustainable pace. However, a lower high was formed recently. So, a loss of momentum is being registered.

In recent sessions, volume rose as price retreated. So, let us look at the MFI which accounts for both price and volume. Here, we have a less optimistic picture as the MFI has clearly broken its uptrend. This suggests that demand has dropped and that more selling is underway.  This is a major difference from when the trendline support in question was tested twice before. In those earlier tests, the MFI was still uptrending strongly. Technically, the picture is weaker now.

Resistance has been established at $2.22 and immediate support is at $2.14.

Golden Agriculture: Inverted black hammer.

CPO price has been in a downtrend since forming a double top in March this year. Following this, Golden Agriculture's downtrend started in early April. We have to remember that this company remains most dependent on CPO's price as it derives most of its profits from upstream activities. So, weakening CPO price is a big negative for it.

Resistance provided by the 100dMA proved too strong to be taken out and price formed a lower high at 55.5c on 21 Jun. In the last session, volume expanded as an inverted black hammer was formed, closing at the 52c support provided by the 20dMA.

MFI has formed a lower low, suggesting a lack of demand for the stock in the immediate term.  OBV has turned down. Clearly, distribution is taking place.

If the 20dMA support fails, using Fibo lines and drawing a trendline support from the low of 25 May, we derive an immediate downside target of 50c which happens to be a round number too.

The fundamentals are not supportive and the technicals are not strong. Cautious market participants who have resisted the temptation to buy in recently on a possible breakout at 55c should be breathing a sigh of relieve.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Resistance remains at 55c.

FSL Trust: Land ahoy?

On 18 June, news of the release of Verona I was greeted with some relieve.  However, price has closed unchanged at 38c since. I expect Nika I to be eventually released as well but would this be enough to reverse the fortunes of FSL Trust's unit price?

Obviously, FSL Trust is still in a downtrend.  Is the current phase forming a floor or a base? Would the declining 20dMA push the price down further? These questions are hard to answer definitely.  However, TA can provide some clues as to the psychology of market participants.  Let's see.

The MFI has been rising since 7 May.  This happened as the price continued its decline. MFI is derived from the combination of price and volume. A rising MFI is a sign of demand as money flows into a stock. Looking back, the MFI was declining from March to April this year while the unit price of FSL Trust was rising.  That negative divergence was a warning sign as smart money was flowing out of the stock. Another reason why I was warning people to stay away from FSL Trust back then. The opposite is happening now with MFI rising, money is flowing back into the stock as price declined.

OBV has been rising since 11 June and this suggests that accumulation is back. All this while, the RSI has been more or less flat and hugging 30%, no longer oversold.  This suggests that the speed at which the stock is being sold down is very much slower or, indeed, has stalled.

Immediate support is a band between 37.5c to 38c.  Immediate resistance is at 40.5c.  If price retests the recent low of 36c, I would pay attention to the volume.  If it is much lower than what was achieved on 11 Jun (5.64m units), we could have the first hint of a bottom.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Verona I.

SPH: Reading the lines.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

It is quite obvious that the Bollinger bands started expanding on 17 Jun and price rose above the upper band for the next two sessions. However, resisted by the 50dMA, price has declined and went on to test the 20dMA as support in the last session. So, for next week, the important MAs to pay attention to would be the 50dMA as resistance and the 20dMA as support.  These would be at $3.86 and $3.77 respectively.  So, I would not renew my buy queue at $3.74.  I would instead wait to see how things turn out.

MFI and RSI are both rising and this tells us that momentum is positive. However, price itself has been choppy with interchanging black and white candlesticks in recent sessions. The MACD, although above zero, looks somewhat tired and we have had three red histograms in the last five sessions.  OBV is flattish. Technically, we could also make a case that price rose on rather low volume in the last session.

If the 20dMA fails as support, the next supports are at $3.72 and $3.68.  I expect $3.68 to be a stronger support as it was a many times tested support in the recent basing process.

Now, many have been talking about the possibility of the STI going down to 2,400 points.  Personally, I blogged about it as well earlier on in mid May.  You might want to read it here: STI at 2425 points?  If this happens, what would happen to the price of SPH's shares? Would it be spared? I think not.  Then, how low would it sink to? For a clue, let's look at the weekly chart.

I would draw your attention to the declining MACD.  This has been the case since late October 09. In the same period, price has risen somewhat.  This is theoretically unsustainable. In recent weeks, as price recovered somewhat, there is no corresponding rise in the OBV which suggests that price has risen due to a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers. Volume has been similarly lacklustre.

If we believe in fan lines where traders who missed the first uptrend gets a second and a third opportunity to buy in, it is quite easy to see that the stock is now on the third line.  The initial steeper trend has been flattening into one that is more sustainable.  However, if this third line, which happens to coincide with the rising 50wMA, should break, we could see price correct to the flattening 100wMA at $3.35. Yes, why not?

I have divested quite a fair bit of my shares in SPH. Let's see if I get to buy some again at much lower prices.

Related post:
SPH: Another pleasant surprise.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stable.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Although the momentum oscillators have been forming lower highs and lower lows of late which is similar to LMIR's case, the OBV here shows a clear trend of accumulation. This has been the case since early March this year.  This is probably the reason for this REIT's relative price stability.  Everytime its price falls close to the long term support of its range, smart money would move in to accumulate.

I mentioned before that if the MFI continues to decline while the price remains at or above the 21.5c resistance turned support, it would be good news for the bulls.  Why? In the absence of positive buying momentum, if the price is able to stay up, it shows a lack of sellers as well.  When positive buying momentum returns once more, chances are higher, therefore, that price would be pushed up in such an instance.

Both the MACD and the signal line are rising above zero.  However, as price is technically still rangebound, this does not say anything more than the fact that momentum has returned to positive territory.

The 20dMA has completed a golden cross with the 50dMA today while the Bollinger bands continue to tighten. I liken this to the coiling up of a spring as price gets ready to move in either one direction. It might or might not be positive. We will have to wait and see.

LMIR: Distribution.

LMIR's volume expanded today as price fell to close at 47c.  Momentum oscillators, MFI and RSI, have formed lower highs and lower lows as the price continued to be resisted by the merged 100d and 200d MAs. I have mentioned a few times before that, of late, LMIR has been rising on weak technicals and, therefore, I would not add to my long position yet.

47c is a many times tested support level, a support level that gave way on 19 May.  At the moment, this support level is underpinned by the rising 20dMA and might be a tad stronger than it was back in May. If 47c gives, the next major support is at 45c.

The MACD has completed its turn down and seems set to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  If it does this and goes below zero once more, the recent upmove in LMIR's price would be nothing more than a rebound in a downtrend which started in January this year.

I would keep an eye on the momentum oscillators at the same time as they could be predictive if we spot divergences. I still like this REIT's fundamentals and will wait for a more opportune time to load up.

Tea with AK71: Water, water everywhere.

The Cantonese saying goes "yao shui, yao choi" which literally translated would say "have water, have money". However, we know that we cannot have too much of a good thing.  Back in school, biology class taught us that if we drink too much water, we might get drunk but I am sure the effects are different from being drunk on alcohol!  Really bizarre.

Well, we are having too much water lately from the heavens.  On that faithful day when Orchard Road became a river last week, I was so drenched walking from the carpark to my office (yes, I don't have a sheltered carpark at work) even with a super large umbrella that I had to exchange my socks and shoes for a pair of slippers at work.  I was feeling quite miserable. 

Today, a bit wiser, I stayed home as the rain came pouring and left for work an hour later when conditions became slightly better.  Guess what.  The roads were still jammed.  Traffic on Jalan Bukit Merah was paralysed.  That was at 10.30AM.  Imagine that.  The last time it happened was when a huge tree fell across six lanes in both directions and till today, the authorities have yet to replace the fence which was destroyed on the center divider at the T junction with Jalan Membina. Residents there are not complaining and I have seen quite a few happily jay walking now that the barrier is gone to get to the bus stop on the other side of Jalan Bukit Merah. That tree fell on a day with strong winds and torrential rainfall just weeks ago.

Thankfully, by the time I arrived at work today, the rain became a light drizzle.  I half jokingly told a customer just now that the world is coming to an end.  Half jokingly because I know that extreme weather conditions are here to stay.  My major in the university was Geography and climate change was something I studied.  Half jokingly also because I have faith in the Singapore government to pre-empt and do the right things.  Building the Marina Barrage is one such example of a right thing.

By many estimates, the Earth would be a very different place by end of this century.  The sea level could have risen 70cm by then.  Imagine that. The polar ice caps would be almost totally gone and that goes for the glaciers in the mountains too. We have made such a mess of this world.

This is something I memorised for my "A" Level Literature class two decades ago:

"To her fair works does nature link the human soul that through me ran and much it grieves my heart to think what man has made of man" - William Wordsworth.

My memory has become a bit patchy over the years and I hope I have not mangled Wordsworth's words.  Still poignant, don't you think?

Flash floods come to the neighbourhood!

Saizen REIT: CEO bought more warrants.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Saizen REIT's CEO, Chang Sean Pey, bought 197,000 warrants today from 7c to 7.5c a piece. Persistent insider buying remains a characteristic of Saizen REIT.  This REIT is probably one of the most undervalued ones currently available in the Singapore stock exchange.

Successfully refinancing YK Shintoku's CMBS in future remains the strongest possible catalyst that would give Saizen REIT's units a lift up in price. Refinancing to bring down the current punitive interest rate of 7.07% to a more reasonable level would greatly improve the EPS of the REIT and, therefore, the DPU.

If the recent successful refinancing of the loan provided by Societe Generale for GK Choan, which attracts an interest rate of 3.8275% throughout its three-year term, is anything to go by, we could see the interest rate for YK Shintoku's loan in the region of 4% once it is successfully refinanced.  This would save 3.07% on interest payment for Saizen REIT's largest loan in its portfolio.  That would represent savings of about JPY200m a year!

The skies are clearing up for Saizen REIT and, at the moment, I do not see any storm cloud for the REIT apart from YK Shintoku's CMBS which I feel confident would dissipate in the coming months.

Other than the JPY 7.1 billion (S$108.6 million) loan of YK Shintoku (which is currently in maturity default) and the JPY 0.45 billion (S$6.9 million) loan of GK Chosei, Saizen REIT has no further loans that are due to mature in the next two financial years. This will allow the Management Team to focus on the refinancing of the loan of YK Shintoku.

Related posts:
Saizen REIT: Refinancing of loan from Soc. Gen.
Replies from AK71: All things Saizen REIT.

Charts in brief: 24 Jun 10.

LONDON (AP) -- World stock markets mostly fell Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a note of caution in its latest assessment of the world's biggest economy, indicating Europe's debt crisis poses a risk to the recovery. Read full article here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Bollinger bands continue to narrow. Flat 100dMA is providing support at 21.5c. Rising 20dMA seems set to form a golden cross with the 50dMA. OBV is steady and MFI's decline halted just below 50%. Keeping an eye on this counter for a possible impending upmove.

SPH: Since selling away some shares at $3.82 and $3.88 on 18 June, I have been watching this counter, looking for signs of a reversal. Today, it closed at $3.79 on lower volume. The uptrending MFI suggests that the sell down lacks conviction, perhaps. OBV is flattish.  So, I have put in a buy order at $3.74 where we find the rising 200dMA.  This is a hedge.  Remember, the 200dMA support was compromised for a few sessions a few weeks back and this could happen again.

LMIR: A gravestone doji. MFI formed a lower high and dipped under 50%. OBV is flat. Negative divergence between price and volume still very obvious. 48c is reasserting itself as the immediate resistance. Bollinger bands are narrowing. Will the price go up or down? Hard to say but the negative divergence is worrisome and I am not adding to my long position here.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 23 Jun 10.

British Petroleum: Time to buy?

Someone asked me if it is time to buy shares of British Petroleum (BP) since it has declined so much and looks cheap.  I said honestly that I don't know as I only buy Singapore stocks.  I saw this on TechTicker and would like to share with anyone who is thinking of buying BP shares:

"There's still a ton of risk," says Chris Edmonds, managing principal with FIG Partners' Energy Research & Capital Group. Edmonds believes it's very possible BP can survive the economic damage caused by the oil leak, but can the company survive the political fallout?

Charts in brief: 23 Jun 10.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: It is hugging the support at 21.5c. MFI continues to descend and has gone below 50%.  I said earlier that if the price stays at or above 21.5c while MFI descends, it is good news for the bulls. This analysis is still valid.  The Bollinger bands look like they are in the early stages of tightening.  A narrowing of the bands signify reduced volatility before a possible sharp movement either way.  With the increased accumulation activity as suggested by the rising OBV, it is likely that this eventual movement is going to be up.

CapitaMalls Asia: I would be very cautious and not go long here. If we look at the daily chart, the price action has closed above the 100dMA. Even though it has done so on lower volume, bulls may cheer. However, if we look at the 100dEMA instead which gives greater weightage to recent price activity, we see a different picture and realise that resistance really has not been taken out yet and that is at $2.22.

Golden Agriculture: MFI seems to be in the early stages of forming lower highs and lower lows. Positive buying momentum is failing. The declining 50dMA is providing resistance at 54.5c now which is where the price closed today. Immediate support at 53.5c but a stronger support is at 51.5c where the 20dMA has just made a golden cross with the 200dMA.

Healthway Medical: Price has very clearly detached from the upper Bollinger band. Forming another doji at this stage suggests that it is most likely that a reversal is on the cards.  MFI is falling from overbought territory and the MACD is turning down towards the signal line. All signs of technical weakness. Initial support is at 18.5c, a resistance level which failed to be taken out earlier this year in March.

Problems in over-leveraged developed economies will eventually reach Asia, including Singapore, either via reduced Asian exports or shock to global financial system, says CIMB, according to Dow Jones....Against this backdrop, house advocates overweight strategy on defensive plays like REITs, as well as proxies to Asia consumption theme, such as Genting Singapore (G13.SG), Raffles Medical Group (R01.SG).

CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT SP), the hotel operator partly-owned by City Developments (CIT SP), tumbled 6.4% to $1.77, its biggest decline since March 30. The company said it raised net proceeds of $196.4 million, selling shares at $1.71 each, the lower-end of the price range for the share placement.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 22 Jun 10.

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