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First REIT: Excess rights allotment.

Friday, December 31, 2010

On 29 Dec, I blogged about how First REIT's rights issue was a resounding success.  From the comments and emails so far, it seems that First REIT favours smaller investors for this rights issue.

See comments in the blog post here.

I have arrived at the following hypothesis based on the data collected so far:

1.  Entitled rights: 5,000 to 8,750,
excess rights allotted: 1,000.

2.  Entitled rights: 10,000 to 38,750,
excess rights allotted: 2,000.

3.  Entitled rights: 40,000 to 98,750,
excess rights allotted: 3,000.

4.  Entitled rights: 100,000 to ???,???,
excess rights allotted: 4,000.

I don't have data for entitled rights below 5,000 and beyond 100,000.

Of course, holders of odd lots would have the advantage of rounding up odd lots, be it 250, 500 or 750 units. These would add to the excess rights allotted.

I welcome more comments and feedback on whether my hypothesis is correct. Congratulations to fellow First REIT unitholders successful in getting excess rights.

SINGAPORE : Singapore's healthcare real estate investment trust First REIT on Friday said it has completed the acquisition of two Jakarta hospitals.

The two new Indonesian healthcare properties include the Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre as well as Siloam Hospitals Lippo Cikarang, a six-storey hospital that began operations in 2002.

With these acquisitions, First REIT said it has crossed a significant milestone as its assets under management have almost doubled to S$612.8 million as at December 31.

The trust's manager revealed that it aims to achieve a portfolio size of S$1 billion in two to three years...

...Meanwhile, the manager of First REIT revealed that based on projection year 2011, the trust's gearing level will stand at about 17 per cent, which is significantly lower than the regulatory limit of 35 per cent.

The manager of the trust added that this will provide it with sufficient headroom for future accretive acquisitions, and it will continue to look out for other healthcare-related assets in Asia to further raise its asset base. 

Complete article here.

FSL Trust: Sold some at 47c.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

I shared on 21 Dec that I had an eventual target of 47c for FSL Trust, saying that it would close the gap at 46c which it did on 23 Dec. Gap resistance was later taken out on 29 Dec. As price opened at 47c today, my overnight sell queue was partially filled. Could we see the 21 Oct high of 48.5c tested next?

With the MFI and RSI both in overbought regions, further upside from the current level could prove difficult. Although momentum is clearly positive as suggested by the rising MACD in positive territory, the light trading volumes as price rose suggest a lack of sellers and not an abundance of buyers. Sustainability is in question.

In a benign situation, I expect gap resistance at 46c to become support in the near term. This is further strengthened by the uptrend support line. Technically, the worst seems to be over for FSL Trust and a retest of resistance at 48.5c looks likely in time.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Closing the gap soon?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rising MACD.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The MACD on this chart has stopped declining.  In fact, it seems to be rising gently, forming higher lows. Higher lows were spotted earlier on in the MFI which suggests firm underlying demand.

The rising 200dMA is at 21c and this, in my opinion, would provide very strong support. Immediate support is at 21.5c while immediate resistance is at 22c.  The downtrend line connecting the highs of 17 Sep and 19 Nov suggests that strong resistance is to be found at 22.5c in the current timeframe.

A quick check on the weekly chart confirms strong support to be at 21c and that the longer term trend is up. I bought more today at 22c and would continue to accummulate on weakness.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: High yield with limited downside.

First REIT: Excess rights not enough.

First REIT's rights issue is a resounding success. Valid acceptances at 97.7% which means there are not many excess rights to go around. Of the 7,790,838 rights which were not validly accepted, rounding up of odd lots would have priority. Seeing how there are 88,002,026 excess rights applied for, chances are most of the funds would be refunded to those who applied for excess rights. This includes me.

Rights units would be issued on 30 Dec and will start trading on SGX Main Board on 31 Dec.

Read announcement here.

I believe that there is some fear that First REIT could see a fall in price when the rights units start trading as people cash in their excess rights for a 40% capital gain. Personally, I do not think that very probable. If priority is given to people who need to round up odd lots, how much excess rights would they be able to sell to realise this gain? With such an overwhelming number of excess rights applied for, each unit holder who did apply for excess rights could end up with one or just a few lots of excess rights.

Personally, if I were successful in getting any excess rights at all, I would hold on to them for an estimated yield of 12.8% (6.4c/50c). I would also hold on because I believe the fair value to be closer to 80c (for an 8% yield). I won't be in a hurry to sell.

Having said this, Mr. Market is unpredictable mostly. Price is currently at support provided by the 20d and 50d MAs at 70.5c. In case of a pull back, expect support at 69c, as provided by the rising 100dMA.

First REIT's management also announced that its existing portfolio has been revalued at $355.5 million, an increase of $14.6 million from the end of 2009. This means that NAV for the REIT is now higher by some 4.3% and this would also lower its gearing level a bit. Good news.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Golden Agriculture: Testing resistance at 80c.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

The negative divergences on the charts have been there for some time now. However, price continues its levitation act as it retested resistance at 80c today.

In the shorter term, it would make sense to wait for price to pull back to the 20dMA at 77c before loading. Personally, I would wait for a retest of the 50dMA before loading up. Would there be a catalyst for a stronger pull back? If I miss out on this one, then, too bad for me.

Indonesia will raise a tax on crude palm oil exports to 20% for January from 15% this month, an official said late Monday (27 Dec). Trade Ministry Director General of International Trade Deddy Saleh told reporters that the reference price for CPO will be US$1,118.37 a metric ton. (CPO closed at US$1,221 on 28 Dec.)  -By Joko Hariyanto; contributing to Dow Jones Newswires

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Pulling back.

CapitaMalls Asia: Rising on low volume.

CapitaMalls Asia closed closed at $1.91 today, up 2c. The MACD's bullish crossover is following through as it continues rising above the signal line. Being still in negative territory, this could just be a rebound. However, the higher lows on the MFI and RSI suggest firm underlying demand and buying momentum.

Immediate resistance is at $1.92 which is where the declining 20dMA is approximating.  If this is taken out convincingly, next resistance level is at $1.95 followed by the downtrend resistance at $1.97. Closing above $1.97 would break the current downtrend. Support at $1.83 has been established.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal?

Market malaise and First REIT.

Monday, December 27, 2010

I guess it is safe to say we can take the whole week off and we would not be missing anything. The STI rose 15.56 points on thin volume (total value of S$559.8m) to close at 3,159.36. Thankfully, I was rather busy at work today. Otherwise, I might have been quite bored.

So, what am I looking at in the stock market now? Apart from thinking of what would I be doing in 2011, nothing much. Actually, I have started writing but I am still adding some finishing touches to the blog post. I would definitely put it up before the end of the week. Look out for it.

However, there is one counter that is on my mind: First REIT. It would complete issuance of the rights units (including excess rights) on 30 Dec (Thursday) and the rights units would start trading on 31 Dec (Friday). At an exercise price of only 50c, successful applicants of excess rights would make approximately 40% capital gain immediately!

Related post:
First REIT: Dragonfly doji at 71c.


Saturday, December 25, 2010

A photo of the Helix Bridge I took a few evenings ago as I took a walk from MBLM to Millenia Walk. Yes, it was a long walk but it was a cool evening. I rather enjoyed the walk. :-)

See the Singapore Flyer in the background on the right?  I am quite proud of this photo taken with my free Samsung mobile phone's built in 5 megapixel camera. ;-p

Merry Christmas to one and all!

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