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CapitaMalls Asia closed at $1.90 support today on reduced volume. My overnight BUY queue at $1.90 was filled. Lowering volume as share price consolidates at support. Nice.
MFI formed a higher low suggesting firm demand. Higher lows on the RSI suggest positive buying momentum. It is not clear yet if share price would break out of resistance next. Immediate resistance is now provided by the declining 50dMA at $1.95 while immediate support is at $1.90.
If price should weaken and close below $1.90, I would turn cautious and stop accumulating. If the low at $1.83 were not compromised in such an instance, I would buy more as another uptrend forms. If the low at $1.83 were taken out, we would want to wait for selling pressure to peter out before venturing back in. What would be the new low then?
If price moved higher and took out resistance at $1.95 convincingly, expect resistance at $2.00, $2.04 and $2.09. As we can see, CapitaMalls Asia is not just a long term buy based on FA but one that is based on TA too. The wall of worries is a tall one indeed.
I will be going on a working trip from tomorrow and would be kept busy. I might not be able to access the internet conveniently. Although I will try to log in and update my blog, I cannot guarantee that I would be able to do it. I will be back in Singapore this Saturday. Good luck to everyone in the meantime.
CapitaMalls Asia: Borrowing on the cheap.
It has been some time since Saizen REIT sold any building from its YK Shintoku portfolio. It divested K1 Mansion Morioka to an independent private investor for a cash consideration of JPY 55,631,452 (S$0.9 million). This building, located in Morioka, was built in August 1995 and comprises 6 residential units and 6 parking lots. The sale is at a discount of approximately 6.7% to valuation.
Referring to the annual report, as of 30 June 2010, K1 Mansion Morioka was 100% occupied and brought in a total annual rental income of JPY6,900,000. This means a gross yield of 12.4%. A good deal for the buyer.
A topic on interest rates seems serious enough. Why have I put it under "Tea with AK71"? Well, it is because I want to talk about it in a more informal tone. It gives me an excuse to ramble and not be too careful in the way I write.
In the last one year, many have been talking about interest rates and how the low interest rates won't last and would go up in time. It seems to be a relatively safe prediction and, in general, I agree but when would it go up and by how much? That's the difficult question.
What goes up must come down one day and what is down would go up too. It is how things in the world achieve equilibrium. There could be exceptions but let's ignore these to keep this chat going.
I might have mentioned this in my blog before. I cannot remember. Think of China and what they are doing. They have increased interest rate more than once in the last few months due to inflationary pressures. Is increasing interest rates the only way to fight inflation? Well, there are many tools available and interest rate is just one tool. Like all tools, it has its limitations.
China has also increased bank reserves requirement in an attempt to reduce money supply. Interest rate and money supply are useful to a point in controlling inflation which are domestically created. They have little impact on exogenous factors.
The Chinese have a huge problem with inflation and much of that is imported. Remember that only a third of the Chinese economy is driven by domestic consumption. This is very different from Indonesia's 60%. How much of the inflationary pressure in China is due to rampant domestic over-consumption, therefore?
Raising interest rates won't help much and could make things worse. The more effective way to reign in inflation is what the Singapore government did: allow its currency to appreciate. Singapore too has a small domestic economy. The Chinese know that they have to let the RMB appreciate and they are just delaying the move.
The RMB is way undervalued and it is the main culprit in causing rampart inflation in China as the booming Chinese economy is heavily reliant on many imports just to keep its industries humming along. Its energy needs is just one such example.
The Singapore government does not use interest rate to control inflation. It uses the Singapore Dollar which floats against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners. If the MAS should hike interest rates (which it can't) to combat inflation, it could have a bigger problem on hand. Why?
Many Asian countries already have a problem of hot money flowing in, money looking for better returns. This money is usually from developed countries which are doing quantitative easing in the hope of jump starting or keeping their economy above water. In these countries, interest rates are more likely than not close to zero.
Money will go to where it is treated best and so, although the interest rates are pretty low in Singapore, a lot of money still find its way to our small island. For example, a 0.8% interest rate plus the prospect of a 5% appreciation against its country of origin is very attractive for such funds.
The inflows have to be put to productive use and lenders (banks) will mostly offer relatively low interest rates to entice borrowers. More cheap debt and inflation continues. So, combating inflation is not a simple matter of increasing interest rates. If only it was that simple.
Another point, since the Singapore government does not use interest rate to control inflation and if an increase in interest rate could be a bad thing instead as it encourages more hot money inflow, what would be the interest rates be like in Singapore for the next 12 months?
To both sets of questions, I have answers. However, seeing that my formal education in Economics ceased at "A" Levels, I shall not reveal what I think. I could be wrong, of course.
I think I need something bracing after this heavy blogging. Tieh Kuan Yin, anybody?
"...CMA will issue $200 million worth of retail bonds.
It aims to raise $100 million by selling one-year bonds, which will pay 1 per cent interest.
The remainder will be raised by issuing 3-year bonds, which carry an annual interest rate of 2.15 percent.
The minimum sum that a retail investor needs to invest is $2,000.
...... Experts say bonds of highly rated corporates are an attractive investment, compared with government bonds.
One-year Singapore government bonds currently yield 0.4 percent annually.
Wilson Liew, an investment analyst, said the bond issuance should have little influence on CMA's performance.
"If you look at the quantum of the bonds, it is not large compared to the total size of the business," said Mr Liew.
CMA has retail properties worth $21.6 billion in its portfolio.
"They are making use of low interest rate environment to raise some money but they are lowly geared anyway so raising money isn't so difficult," added Mr Liew."
On 21 Jan, it was reported that the offer was approximately 1.82 times subscribed. Read report here.
Cheap debt is a good thing for a growing business. I am sure the management of CapitaMalls Asia will put the money to good use. Fundamentally, this company is in a net cash position and has predictable cash flow from its management business while divesting mature shopping malls to the REITs it manages could result in attractive gains periodically. I am looking forward to stronger numbers in the future.
Technically, I have not looked at the weekly chart for this counter before. Let's take a look:
The candlesticks are detaching from the lower Bollinger and we could see price moving towards the 20wMA which is currently at $2.06. There is still a downward bias but I like the higher lows on the MFI and RSI. Both momentum oscillators are still in oversold territories and this situation could be corrected sooner than later.
We cannot say that we are surely seeing a reversal at this stage but a rebound to the 20wMA is not unattainable and could result in some decent gains for anyone buying at the trendline support which approximates $1.90 currently. I am, of course, vested.
A Chinese government think tank has forecast the nation's economy will grow around 9.8 per cent this year, with inflation likely to come in at 3.7 per cent, state media reported Sunday. Experts at the Chinese Academy of Sciences also predicted that gross domestic product would rev up in the latter part of the year, and would be driven largely by domestic consumption, the official China News Service said. Read article here.
CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back on low volume.
I told my friend I was happy that there was a sell down yesterday because my overnight BUY queue at 21.5c was filled. Well, his friend's overnight BUY queue was filled too at 21.5c but she's worried now. I find that mind boggling. We put in an overnight BUY queue in the hope that it would be filled and when it was filled, we worry? Something is wrong here. I think popping the champagne could be overdoing it but some happiness is more appropriate, don't you think?
A quick look at the daily chart shows immediate support at 21.5c. The MFI is still uptrending and is now testing resistance at 50%. The confluence of 20d, 50d and 100d MAs at 22c makes this price level a strong resistance. What is the chance of this resistance being taken out?
Let us take a look at the weekly chart for clues on the longer term trend. The trend is obviously still up. If we think of the white candle formed in the week of 13 Sep, could we be seeing the formation of a flag? Is price consolidating before moving up further?
Now, look at the Bollinger Bands and they are definitely narrowing. So? Volatility is reducing which supports the idea that price is consolidating. Will price go up or down? An educated guess is that it is more likely to go up than to go down because the upcoming DPU is likely to increase over the last one by a large margin. Numbers are likely to improve and we will know for sure next week when the results are announced on the 25th (Tuesday).
Does this mean that price would not weaken at all in the meantime? Who can say for sure? However, in view of the fact that the REIT is on a longer term uptrend and that the rising 50wMA is at 21c, I have already put in a BUY order at 21c and if this price level was ever tested, I hope my BUY order could be filled. At 21c and an estimated DPU of 2c per year, that is a distribution yield of 9.52%.
Finally, someone told me that his broker advised him against investing in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT because it has been losing money for years. I find this baffling as the REIT is only slightly more than a year old since the old MI-REIT was recapitalised.
Looking at the last quarterly report, we see positive net income and positive cash flow. MI-REIT is a thing of the past, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is a much stronger outfit and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
See 2Q FY2011 Unaudited Financial Results here.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Sell down at 21.5c.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Revised DPU and fair value.
1. Projected DPU for FY2011 remains at 6.4c.
2. NAV/unit as at 31 Dec 2010 is 77c.
3. Gearing in 2011 at 17.25%.
DPU is lower for 4Q FY2010 at 0.87c "due to the issuance of 345,664,382 Rights Units on 31 December2010 in relation to the acquisition of Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre and Siloam Hospitals LippoCikarang. These new rights units are entitled to participate in the 4Q 2010 distribution. If the new rights units issued on 31 December 2010 are excluded in the computation, the adjusted distribution per unit would have been 1.96 cents."
New properties will start contributing to earnings and distributions in 2011. Expecting the DPU for 1Q FY2011 to be 1.6c, therefore.
4Q FY2010 DPU of 0.87c will be payable on 28 Feb 2011.
See presentation slides here.
See report by OCBC Investment Research here.
First REIT: Simply amazing.
Golden Agriculture is closing in on the 100dMA as it ended the day at 71c today on high volume. We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon. The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price.
The MACD is falling in negative territory. Both MFI and RSI are also declining in overbought territories. The OBV shows clear distribution ongoing. The time to buy some shares in Golden Agriculture could be near.
First Resources declined with a vengeance yesterday on extremely high volume but volume dried up today as price declined another 4c. Could price decline further next week? It certainly could but with volume drying up, drastic price decline similar to what was witnessed yesterday is less likely to happen again.
For anyone thinking of initiating a long position in the counter, the 100dEMA at $1.38 and the 100dMA at $1.35, if tested, could be nice entry prices.
See analysis by DBS Group Research here.
Thursday, 20 January 2011
Golden Agriculture: Looking to the 100dMA.
Raffles Education's recent stellar performance in the stock market is now explained. It "has identified a property developer in Singapore to co-develop the Oriental University City (OUC) land to monetise its SGD394m investment in the university city." Read article in Next Insight here. This development is unexpected and could also explain the constant insider buying of the company's shares in the last few months.
Technically,the OBV indicates that accumulation is ongoing while the MFI and RSI are in overbought territories. Although in extremely bullish situations, they could remain overbought for a long while, it is wise to stay cautious and not chase the price higher.
The 200dMA has flattened at 30.5c and it could be resistance turned support. Of course, it would be nice if this could be confirmed if a correction in price happens.
I have fully divested my smallish investment in Raffles Education and extend my best wishes to all who are still vested.
Friday, 21 January 2011
Raffles Education: Broke resistance.
I bought more shares of CapitaMalls Asia today at $1.91 as its share price retreated to test its support at $1.90. I like the picture which is forming which suggests a low volume pull back taking place.
Whether the uptrend support at $1.90 holds up is important for the counter in the near future. If it breaks, the nascent uptrend is in jeopardy and I would turn cautious If it holds up, price could bounce off and move higher. With the rising 20dMA on course to meet the falling 50dMA, expect some volatility but the technicals do have an upward bias for now and a golden cross is in the works.
CapitaMalls Asia: A sustainable reversal?
Golden Agriculture's share price continues to weaken with a gap down today forming a wickless black candle on heavy volume. Price closed at 74c which seems to be a relatively strong support in the immediate future. Some asked if I would consider buying in at 74c. I don't think so.
Of course, price could rebound after a hard sell down. The RSI has entered the oversold region with the MFI just bordering on oversold. However, look at the OBV which shows sharp distribution and this could continue as the MACD dipped into negative territory. If a rebound happens, it would probably do a gap cover to 76c where it would meet with resistance.
On 15 January, I asked "How low could the price fall to? No one can say for sure but drawing a trendline support linking the lows of 30 Sep and 8 Oct coincides with the rising 100dMA and, to me, this suggests a much stronger support at this level and would be a more ideal entry point. The 100dMA is currently at 68.5c." The 100dMA is closing in on 70c and that is when I might consider adding to my long position if there are clearer signs to do so, not sooner.
Golden Agriculture: Short term uptrend broken.
The RSI has declined but remains in overbought region. The MFI has broken its uptrend and falls towards 50% which could act as a support. No sign of distribution on the OBV. Overall, the situation is rather benign and there is support. 18c remains the resistance to watch. It remains the ideal price at which to reduce exposure, being the high of 2010 and likely to remain strong in the memories of market participants.
Saizen REIT: Attracting some big money?
Despite what the management says, the Trust's numbers are really weak as it reported its results today and the following should cause some concern:
1. Reduction in net cash from operations which reduced year on year by 19.6% and quarter on quarter by 7.8%.
2. A full year net loss of US$5.67million whereas it registered a profit of US$8.42million the year before.
3. A loan tranche maturing in April 2012.
See Press Release here.
Technically, volume has been rising as price stayed in a tight trading range between 47c and 47.5c mostly. 48c was only tested in three sessions. Today, volume was very thin as a BUY signal appeared on the MACD histogram. The 20dMA has been rising and is now at 47c while the 50d and 100d MAs are rising to meet the declining 200dMA. Golden crosses in the making? Perhaps. The MFI, however, has turned down after hitting 50% which acted as resistance. The overall picture is one which suggests further upside in the current time frame could be limited.
FSL Trust released its results after 8pm tonight. So, it remains to be seen how the market would react tomorrow. If the support provided by the 20dMA at 47c should break, stronger support could be found at 45c which is where the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs are approximating. I would sell into strength and 48c is the resistance to watch.
FSL Trust: Sold some at 48c.
A spectacular breakout today with a 3c or 10% gain for Raffles Education! A wickless white candle was formed on this up day although it was preceded in the previous two sessions by a spinning top and a doji, both potential reversal signals. So, the resistance at 30c so decisively taken out today was as surprising as it was spectacular.
Buy signal is spotted on the MACD histogram while the MFI and RSI remain in overbought territories. OBV shows a spike in accumulation. Question: Could the price go much higher? I see the next resistance at 34c which was the high of 12 July 2010. The current price of 33c is also a strong resistance as provided by the 150% Fibo line and if 33c were taken out, 34c is most likely attainable.
Raffles Education: 200dMA resistance again.
Yesterday, I mentioned that "Looking at the chart, immediate support is currently at 21c although it seems precarious as MFI and RSI spiked into overbought regions. Any weakness could see the counter pulling back to 20c which offers a stronger support and would correct the overbought condition."
The excitement that came with the prospect of dual listing by the counter petered out quickly as price formed a wickless black candle and closed at 20.5c today, just 1 bid shy of the 20c support I mentioned. Looking at the buy queue which formed at 20c, it does look like it would be a strong support.
With both the MFI and RSI exiting their overbought regions, we could see the overbought condition corrected very soon. We could see the MFI retest its uptrend support which means that volume and price could fall further in the meantime.
20c support could indeed be tested sooner than later while 19c is where we find a clustering of the MAs and that is where we would find the strongest support in case of severe weakness.
CIMB downgrades bulk shipping to "underweight". Read article here.
Bloomberg, CIMB Research.
Courage Marine: Dual listing.
I have some friends and readers who asked me if it is too late to go long on this REIT. Well, I might not be the best person to ask because I have been vested in this REIT for more than a year and at unit prices 16.5c and lower that I do not feel inclined to add to my long position at the current prices. However, I will try to be objective here.
The 100dMA continues to rise towards the 200dMA and seems on track to forming a true golden cross in time. The MACD continues to rise above the signal line in positive territory. OBV shows continual accumulation. The RSI is overbought but the MFI is not. This suggests that price has moved up too quickly but overall demand is still moderate. The upmove in price has not been accompanied by any crazy expansion in volume which suggests that a sharp pullback is unlikely.
For anyone who is thinking of selling into strength, the high of 14 Jan 2010 should be the resistance to watch. Selling at resistance is conventional wisdom. Of course, if resistance should break, more upside is likely and resistance could become support. When in doubt, hedge. Sell a portion, big or small is up to you and keep the rest, just in case.
Fundamentally, I believe the fair value of this REIT is closer to 19c and, if YK Shintoku's CMBS were to be successfully refinanced, the fair value would be closer to 20c. These values assume that the warrants are fully exercised and they are what I think the REIT is worth. What Mr. Market thinks could be quite different.
Saizen REIT: Golden crosses.
Saizen REIT: Steady.
Email exchange with a reader on some REITs.
Here are the highlights:
2. Earnings per unit (EPU) for the period from date of listing to 31 December 2010 were 1.39 cents.
3. Net asset value per unit as at 31 December 2010 was $1.16.
Full report here.
Some readers might remember an earlier blog post in which I questioned if K-Green Trust was a bad investment. In that post, I said "If it could land lucrative acquisitions with cheap debt, we could also see it reducing its payout ratio and keeping cash for asset renewal purposes. To think of KGT as a static business trust with no growth opportunities could be rather short sighted. Why? Because it has zero gearing unlike CitySpring Infrastructure Trust." This is still a valid assumption but the Trust has yet to announce any such plans.
DPU of 4.31c will be paid out on 10 March 2011. This probably explains the bump up in the Trust's unit price to $1.10 today, forming a wickless white candle in the process. The buy signal on the MACD histogram yesterday has been confirmed. Drawing some Fibo lines suggests that further upside could meet with stronger resistance at $1.13. Is this attainable? The MFI has formed a higher low and further upside from $1.10 is probable.
K-Green Trust: A bad investment?
Based on the Company’s initial assessment, three of CIT’s 43 properties will be affected to varying degrees by this land acquisition:
1) 30 Tuas Road (Lot No 1289X pt Mukim 7)
2) 120 Pioneer Road (Lot No 3237M pt Mukim 7); and
3) 1 Tuas Avenue 3 (Lot 1422X Mukim 7)
All or part of the land where these properties are situated will be possessed by the Government by January 2013.
Read announcement here.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Equity fund raising again.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Fails to deliver.
Although the BDI has been declining and "even if 4Q 2010 does not turn in any profit which I believe is unlikely, net profit this year is already 120x higher than the whole of 2009!" So, I firmly held on, believing that the management would declare a generous dividend when the time comes.
Courage Marine gapped up today as it opened at 22c. My overnight sell queue was filled as I reduced my exposure to the counter by half. For me, locking in a gain now is like getting the dividend in advance. After all, the declining BDI is likely to have a negative impact on Courage Marine's earnings, going forward. The BDI has already broken the previous low and it is yet unclear where the next low would be but with greater increase in bulk shipping capacity in the near future, upside could be limited as supply outstrips demand.
What would I do with my remaining position in Courage Marine? I would hold on to see if price could go higher either through further developments in its plan to dual list in Hong Kong or through a possibly generous dividend payout.
Looking at the chart, immediate support is currently at 21c although it seems precarious as MFI and RSI spiked into overbought regions. Any weakness could see the counter pulling back to 20c which offers a stronger support and would correct the overbought condition. Further upside could see Courage Marine retest a many times tested resistance level at 23c. I would be tempted to sell more then.
Courage Marine: 3Q 2010 results.
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Monday, 17 January 2011
A white spinning top formed today as volume expanded. Price closed at 30c, resisted by the declining 200dMA, after touching a high of 30.5c. 200dMA is still a formidable resistance.
The MFI and RSI are still in overbought territory while the OBV rose further. Momentum is still positive as suggested by the rising MACD in positive territory. With the MFI and RSI overbought, a pull back could take place soon. In such an instance, expect immediate support at 28.5c followed by 27.5c.
However, if volume should expand as the bulls try to push price higher, resistance provided by the 200dMA could be overcome and, in time, we could see price retest the high of 34c achieved in July last year.
Raffles Education: Resistance at 200dMA.
Monday, 17 January 2011
This counter formed a white spinning top today as it broke resistance at $1.95 to touch a high of $1.97, which is where the declining 50dMA is approximating. Of course, a spinning top is a sign of indecision and it was on the back of increased volume. It is not a strong bullish sign. The tug of war between bulls and bears is still significant here.
The uptrend which started on 20 Dec is still valid and the trendline support is at $1.89. With the 20dMA at $1.90, this is where we would find initial support in case of a pull back in price. This support should hold and if it does, we could be looking at an ascending triangle pattern. This would give me a target close to where the 100d and 200d MAs are at, approximating $2.08 and $2.10 currently.
OBV continues to climb, suggesting continuing accumulation. MACD has risen once more above the signal line and could be ready to cross into positive territory. The MFI and RSI are both rising after successfully testing 50% as support. Things are looking good here and I would accumulate on weakness.
CapitaMalls Asia: $1.90 resistance turned support.
Price falling below the 20dMA suggests that the shorter term uptrend could be over. Drawing a trendline support linking the lows of 8 Oct and 24 Nov verifies this as price closed below this support for the first time in months.
How low could the price fall to? No one can say for sure but drawing a trendline support linking the lows of 30 Sep and 8 Oct coincides with the rising 100dMA and, to me, this suggests a much stronger support at this level and would be a more ideal entry point. The 100dMA is currently at 68.5c.
Fundamentally, I believe that demand for Crude Palm Oil would remain strong with higher consumption in Asia. I would look out for a chance to accumulate on any sharp pullbacks.
Golden Agriculture (3 Jan 11)
Usually, once support is confirmed, we would see more people buying in as they feel more confident. However, buying at support might not be available by then and any buying would be done at higher prices. With price closing once again at $1.92 after touching a high of $1.93, let us see how things turn out next week. Expect initial resistance at $1.95.
CapitaMalls Asia: Plague, no more?
The MACD is approaching zero. Would it recover or would it cross into negative territory? The MFI has emerged from oversold territory and is rising gently, suggesting a return of demand, although weak. Volume has been relatively low.
The RSI has been forming higher lows which suggest a strengthening in terms of buying momentum based purely on price. The OBV is flat which suggests a lack of distribution and accumulation. Verdict? This counter seems to be consolidating and, at this point, it could go either way. I am not doing anything here.
Healthway Medical: Closed the gap at 15.5c.
22c is, once again, resistance and immediate support is at 21.5c.
I will continue to accumulate at 21.5c and, perhaps, even 21c if the 200dMA should be tested as support. Fundamentally, buying more at 21.5c and 21c would give a handsome yield of 9.3 to 9.5%.
Friday, 14 January 2011
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 22c support.
We do not have to be housewives shopping for the family to know that prices of foodstuff are going up. I like buying the occasional curry puff from Old Chang Kee and today I found out that the curry puff is S$1.30 each! I thought it was still S$1.20 each. Anyway, I had a craving. What to do?
Back in the office, I happily took a bite and I bit into a cavity! Looking into the curry puff, I found it half empty! Really, I am not kidding. I took photos of the errant curry puff:
I was somewhat unhappy and amused as well. The price went up and the amount of filling reduced at the same time! What a combination! Maybe, I should buy Old Chang Kee's shares? Perhaps, this experience is an important part of FA. ;-p
CapitaMalls Asia has broken out of its downtrend, closing at $1.92, two bids above resistance at $1.90. Volume increased as price strengthened.
We see a buy signal on the MACD histogram as both the MFI and RSI bounced off 50% support. OBV has turned higher, suggesting increased accumulation. More upside is likely.
The next resistance is a band between $1.95 and $1.98, as defined by the upper Bollinger, the candlestick resistance of end December 2010 and the descending 50dMA. Successfully overcoming this resistance band could see price going higher to where we find the 100d and 200d MAs. These are now at $2.08 and $2.10 respectively.
CapitaMalls Asia: Plagued by downtrend.
For Saizen REIT, the 100dMA seems on track to forming a golden cross with the 200dMA although it could be another couple of weeks before it is clearer. That there has been gradual accumulation since mid November 2010 is quite clear from the OBV. The MFI and RSI are above 50% but not overbought. Price could move higher in a nascent uptrend but it could be quite gradual as well.
Saizen REIT (3 Jan 11)