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Capitaland: Pushing higher on lower volume.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Capitaland's share price touched a high of $2.66 and closed at $2.65. Remember that I mentioned that in very bullish circumstances we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested? This is still valid.

I did a partial divestment at $2.65 today. If the following week should see price pushing higher, I would be happy to divest once more. $2.75? It could happen although I see the declining 200dMA now at $2.73. This could limit further appreciation in price. Although bulls could push past this resistance, it would surprise me (pleasantly) if price could close above the 200dMA. Why do I say this?




Look at the trading volume. It has been reducing. Indeed, volume is also lower this week as compared to last week. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and reducing volume could be an early signal of coming weakness in price. Volume precedes price.

Momentum oscillators also signal that greater caution should be exercised. On the daily charts, the MFI has entered overbought territory while the Stochastics has been overbought for some time. It is riskier to go long at present despite the return of positive momentum as shown by a rising MACD in positive territory.

Long holders could consider selling while anyone thinking of buying could consider waiting for a pull back to supports.

Related post:
Capitaland: Partial divestment at $2.48.

First REIT: FY2011 results.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.93c which is another bumper distribution! The REIT will go XD on 1 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February.


This includes distribution coming out of a portion of the total gains on divestment of the Adam Road property of about S$8.7 million.

Without such a return of capital, the DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.61c. Annualised DPU is, therefore, estimated to be 6.44c. To calculate a more realistic distribution yield, we have to use this number. At the unit price of 77c, we get a distribution yield of 8.36%.

NAV/unit: 80.5c
Gearing: 16%
Interest cover ratio: 12.3x

Technically, volume has been rising but price has plateaued at 77c which seems like a difficult resistance to overcome.



How would Mr. Market react to the REIT's results? Could we see price action breaking resistance at 77c and going higher? If resistance should be overcome, there is a chance of a retest of 80c which I see as the upper end of a trading range.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
First REIT: Bumper distribution 3Q 2011.

LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012



Anyone who made use of LMIR's rights issue to accumulate more units would be in the money now.

I see immediate resistance for LMIR's unit price at 38c and put in an overnight sell order for a partial divestment. It was filled today as unit price closed at 38.5c.



Fibo lines seem to suggest that in case of a retracement, we could see strong support at 34.5c. That is quite a bit to fall from here if it should be tested.

The strategy I have for LMIR is the same as the one for Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Hold a larger portion for regular income while trading a smaller portion for potential capital gains.

The decision to partially divest is fully based on technicals as, fundamentally, I think LMIR is still too cheap to sell.

Related post:
LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.



In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that immediate resistance for Sabana REIT is to be found at 91c. If this were to be taken out, we could see gap filling at 91.5c.

My sell order at 91c was filled today. Technically, if unit price should weaken when the REIT goes XD, we could see a decline to retest support which seems to be on a rising trendline. This would be in the region of 87c. That is a 4c difference if it should materialise.



As I have a large investment in the REIT and not forgetting that my primary aim of being vested is for income, I decided on divesting only a small portion (approximately 10% of total investment in the REIT) at resistance for a trade.

If the unit price should retest support, I would buy again. If unit price should go higher, I would also benefit from my remaining investment. This way, I could benefit both from units vested and units divested.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

Towards a modern day good life.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

We have our own circumstances which make demands on our finances, time and energy. Often, we hear people saying that they do not have enough money, time or energy to do all the things they have to do or want to do. How do we work towards having the money, time and energy to have a modern day good life?



Finances:

How much something costs is quantifiable, of course. Although people might find themselves cash strapped at times or, for some, most of the time, I believe that any problem that can be solved with money is not insurmountable, within reason.

We can always think of ways in which to make more money. Get extra income from a second job, for example. We could also seek help in the form of a short term loan if it should be warranted. Of course, to ensure that the situation is rectified permanently, if at all possible, find the root of the problem and resolve it sensibly.

Working towards a secure financial future as early as practicable in life would definitely help. Anyone who does this stands a good chance of having financial woes being a relatively infrequent occurence over time.



Time:

Unlike money, we cannot make more time. Time is therefore more precious than money. So, since we cannot make more time, what do we do if we want more time? Buy time. Huh? Buy time?

Do I mean buying some life extending elixir? I might like to entertain myself with Chinese mythology from time to time but I am not delusional. Well, I hope not anyway.

When we say "buy" in our modern day context, it would involve money, would it not? "Buying" time is possible if we have enough passive income to free up time.  It would free us from our reliance on earned income. Then, theoretically, we could quit our jobs and we could have more free time if that is what we desire.

When we have more free time, we would be able to meet head on any situation which demands more time from us. Time becomes less of an issue.



Energy (emotional):

When problems hit, it would be rare not to be emotionally affected. This is probably the most demanding factor and would drain even the strongest of people. This is something not many talk about in financial planning.

Financial planning is not just about dollar and cents or freeing up time. As problems are usually emotionally stressful, financial planning helps to make stress arising from such problems more manageable.

How can we reduce the emotional stress in such instances? If we have our finances well in place and if we have freed up more time, we would probably be able to deal with the emotional upheavals more easily and such situations might then feel less stressful.

I know that some people including our government say that family support is important to deal with stressful situations. This is true but not everyone has supportive families. Even though I feel that I am relatively lucky in this context, I would like to be self-reliant and not be a burden to my family, if possible.



Energy (physical):

We would also need to be physically healthy as a weak body could succumb to illnesses more easily. Regular exercise, taking in the required nutrition and having sufficient sleep are all part and parcel of having a healthy body.

As long as we have control over our lives, we should make sure we live it well. In our modern day context, it is possible only if we are financially prepared, have time for things that matter and are emotionally and physically healthy.

For the majority of us, we probably have to work towards having a good life. Depending on each person's circumstances and decisions in life, it could be harder for some and easier for others. However, it is definitely not an impossibility. A good life waits for anyone who is willing to work towards it. Believe it.

Related posts:
1. A common piece of advice on saving.
2. At what age to start investing in the stock market?
3. A letter from a reader in his early 20s.
4. Tea with AK71: How rich is rich?
5. Passive income: A higher purpose.


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