Online shopping is gaining strength rapidly and even an IT dinosaur like AK buys stuff online. From my own experience, I would say that online shopping is attractive because of two factors:
1. Convenience. Delivered to my home with either very competitively priced delivery fee or free delivery.
2. Cheaper. For the same item, I have saved as much as 30% buying online than buying in a brick and mortar shop.
So, if a shop in a mall is selling stuff that could be found online, unless the mall is conveniently located and unless they are priced competitively, that shop is going the way of the Dodo.
It is just a matter of time.
Shopping malls must fill themselves more with shops that offer goods and services which cannot be found online for one reason or another.
After all, there are things which online shops cannot do or cannot do well.
Therefore, despite the growing reach of online vendors, I believe that some shopping malls will continue to do reasonably well and some readers might remember that I have been waiting to invest in CapitaMall Trust (CMT).
However, I have not been able to get in at a price which I am comfortable with because Mr. Market likes pedigree and, just like Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), even now, CMT is trading at around its Net Asset Value (NAV) and both are offering very similar distribution yields in the mid 5%.
REITs, unlike companies, pay out most of their cash flow from operations to their investors.
They do not pay dividends from their earnings.
They distribute income.
They do not have retained earnings.
One way REITs grow, without placing too much demand on shareholders (think rights issue) or diluting minority shareholders (think private placements) is to ensure that there is genuine growth in the value of their assets which would in turn give them more leeway to fund more growth through using debt.
It is a virtuous cycle, one that hinges on the growing value of assets. I think we can agree that CMT and FCT have done rather well in this area.
However, given the uncertain retail environment for some time now, although well run, I would like to invest in CMT and FCT at a meaningful discount to NAV and if they offered higher distribution yields.
Asset values in good times would appreciate but in bad times they could come under pressure.
So, buying at a discount to NAV makes sense to me unless we feel that asset values can only go up and never go down.
Although I have been mostly looking at CMT, I have also looked at FCT and Starhill Global REIT (SGR).
I like CMT and FCT. I am more familiar with their malls. However, I am not comfortable with getting in at current prices.
I am not as familiar with SGR's malls (i.e. Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City) and not all their malls are in Singapore which, by the way, is a good thing.
However, trading at a meaningful discount to NAV and offering a distribution yield closer to 7%, to me, SGR is priced more attractively.
There are a few more factors which pushed me towards investing in SGR:
1. More than a third of SGR is owned by the sponsor, YTL Group.
This helps to ensure a greater degree of alignment of interest with minority unit holders.
2. The management is looking to sell the REIT's Chinese and Japanese assets to concentrate on what they consider the REIT's core markets of Singapore, Australia and Malaysia.
Now, reducing concentration risk is good but having a handful of assets in China and Japan probably isn't beneficial and would, in fact, add disproportionately to operating costs.
3. The relative weakness in SGR's performance is probably going to be temporary because of redevelopment works in an asset in Australia and a delay in a new tenant moving into its asset in China.
Looking at SGR's DPU for the last quarter, annual DPU, all else remaining equal is about 5c which gives us a 6.85% distribution yield based on 73c per unit.
However, if there were to be more hiccups, income could be affected negatively and I am knocking off 5% from DPU to 4.75c to take this into consideration. 6.5% distribution yield is good enough for me while I wait for an improvement in performance.
I am not buying into SGR because I think its outlook is fantastic. For sure, they will face challenges.
I am buying into SGR because, taking advantage of its recent price weakness, I feel that there is some margin of safety.
SGR is an investment that is likely to generate a fairly good yield for the price that I paid.
Related posts:
1. CRCT added to my portfolio.
2. CMT and when am I nibbing?
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Online shopping, retail S-REITs and Starhill Global REIT.
Monday, March 20, 2017Frasers L&I Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust added in January 2017.
Thursday, February 2, 2017
As REITs will always be relevant to the income investor, I have been thinking of how best to increase my investment in REITs again in an environment of increasing interest rates and I decided I should choose REITs which have a better plan or chance to improve their income.
Hedging interest rate risk is very well and good but this only kicks the can down the road because sooner or later, higher interest rates will hit home.
So, having the ability to increase income is still key as to whether a REIT will do well with interest rates increasing over time.
Very importantly, I also decided that it is probably a good idea to diversify more geographically and to reduce my portfolio's reliance on Singapore.
Remember I said this in a recent blog post on Sabana REIT?
However, things will get even more challenging for REITs from here on with interest rates expected to rise further. Industrial REITs here are facing an oversupply of space and a malaise in demand. (Source: History with Sabana REIT and current thoughts.)
So, although I like AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT), for example, last month, I decided to initiate a position at 92.5c a unit in Frasers L&I Trust (FLT) which owns logistics and industrial properties in Australia.
The IPO price was 89c a unit and, to be honest, I was waiting for the price to come down from there before buying some.
This was because although there are many things to like about FLT, the distribution yield was on the low side for an industrial REIT.
Unfortunately, the decline I had hoped for did not happen.
So, although FLT's distribution yield of 7+% doesn't seem very attractive when compared to AA REIT's 8+%, I decided that there are enough positive factors such as relatively low gearing and a portfolio of mostly freehold properties in Australia for me to invest in the REIT.
(30 November 2016) |
Other than FLT, I have another new investment in my portfolio.
Again, this has a portfolio of real estate outside of Singapore.
Some readers might remember that I have been waiting for a chance to get into CapitaMall Trust (CMT).
I remember I spent quite a bit of time blogging about it once upon a time: here.
However, from then till now, CMT's unit price did not decline enough to be persuasive, I feel.
Translation: AK is "giam siap" and wants to buy at a much lower price.
What?
You need a translation for "giam siap"?
I blur.
After much consideration, I accepted the offer from Mr. Market to invest in Capita Retail China Trust (CRCT) instead, paying $1.40 a unit.
Just a few months ago in September 2016, CRCT hit a high of $1.66 a unit.
Why the big decline in unit price?
It was probably due to a 10.6% drop in DPU, year on year.
A new tax in Beijing and a weaker RMB were the reasons. NAV also declined by almost 12% to $1.56 per unit.
Offering a higher yield than CMT even now and having ownership of a portfolio of shopping malls in a market with arguably more room for growth (in terms of organised retail activity) than Singapore's, I decided CRCT is probably worth investing in.
After all, a 10.6% decline in DPU doesn't warrant an almost 15.6% decline in unit price unless we are expecting a more severe decline in DPU.
In fact, I think that DPU should recover somewhat as CRCT's non-Beijing malls could pick up the slack over the course of the year.
Having said this, I am reminded of a longer term risk, that land lease in China is typically 50 years and that could explain why Mr. Market demands a higher distribution yield for a retail REIT in China compared to one in Singapore.
I do not know if, like in Hong Kong, land lease could be renewed easily. This is one risk to bear in mind if we choose to invest in CRCT.
(September 2016.) |
This arrangement is similar to Lippo Malls' and I blogged about it before (See blog: here).
A decline in RMB against the S$ could see both gearing and interest expense affected in a bad way.
Although I have said that CRCT would likely see income increasing over time, this is going to be a gradual process.
So, to be prudent, I am keeping my investment in CRCT relatively small.
CRCT's 4Q2016 results. |
Annualising the DPU gives me a distribution yield of 6.75%.
Again, why did I choose to invest in FLT and CRCT in an environment of rising interest rate which would impact their cost of doing business eventually?
You blur?
I also blur.
Xizhimen Beijing. Just next to the train station.
Posted by AK71 at 3:54 PM 44 comments
Labels:
CMT,
CRCT,
Frasers L&I,
investment,
REITs
CapitaMall Trust: When is AK nibbling?
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Following a recent blog post in which my admiration for CapitaMall Trust's (CMT) management was once again mentioned, with the REIT's unit price having retreated from a recent high of $2.09 a unit, I decided to examine whether it makes sense for me to have some exposure to the REIT soon.
Well, these concerns could be addressed effectively as long as REITs are able to increase their rental income meaningfully. It would largely be through positive rental reversions and this would hinge upon whether tenants are willing to pay higher rents. I expect that some REITs would be able to do this better than others.
However, for Retail REITs like CMT, if they are able to add value by encouraging shoppers to choose their malls over the competition's, they will create a win-win situation for themselves and their tenants. I believe that CMT is doing a good job of this and the REIT's tenants would appreciate this.
Not much of a shopper myself, it is really after becoming a CapitaStar member and getting the CapitaMalls credit card that I appreciate this as I looked at the REIT through the lens of a business development manager which is the fun part for me.
Correct as of June 2014, here are some numbers:
Gearing: 34.3%
Also, 98.7% are fixed rate borrowings.
It is hard to imagine CMT being caught in any situation where they might have trouble refinancing their debt. Now, this is not saying that it cannot happen, of course, which is why, expecting interest rates to rise from middle of 2015, I think that having a larger exposure to companies which pay stable and meaningful dividends out of their earnings with little or no debt is safer than increasing exposure to leveraged income instruments like REITs.
Next, as REIT investors, we would be familiar with the argument why Industrial REITs must offer a higher yield because their land leases are much shorter (although some could hold some freehold properties which throws a spanner into the wheels of this train of thought). Anyway, I feel that what is more important is a REIT's ability to actually add value even if their land leases are getting shorter over time.
If we look at the AEIs that CMT did and are doing now, it is easy to see that they have added value and are going to add more value to the REIT again.
I hope to buy at a discount to NAV but with a strong track record and pedigree, under normal circumstances, it would be difficult for my wish to come true. Then, perhaps, I might be persuaded to take a nibble if I could pay only a smallish premium to NAV.
Click to enlarge. |
1. SPH or SPH REIT?
Posted by AK71 at 9:30 AM 19 comments
Labels:
AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT,
CMT
OCBC and CapitaMalls: Providing value for money deals.
Monday, October 6, 2014
At the sharing session with Sean Seah and friends, there was plenty of food. It was like a pot luck session and I saw a few boxes from Polar. They are famous for their puff pastries and Swiss rolls, I believe. Their curry puffs cost $1.80 each and I always thought they were quite expensive. So, until quite recently, I never did buy Polar curry puffs.
Wah! AK recently bought atas curry puffs?
Well, I got them for $1.00 each and that was the first thing I said yesterday to the group. Yes, terrible. I totally forgot that initial impression is very important and they probably thought, "What a cheapskate..." Of course, I went on to say how they could also get $1.00 curry puffs from Polar, oblivious to what they might be thinking.
Actually, it is all thanks to the OCBC Frank VISA card that I have now. To get the special deal, I use the NETS Flashpay function. We will also need the NETS Flashpay Savers app which is free to download. The app lists many special deals and one of them is from Polar.
Each time, we are allowed to buy up to a maximum of 4 curry puffs at $1.00 each and pay with NETS Flashpay. A discount of almost 45%! That is a pretty good deal!
So, ever a sucker for great deals, I tried their curry puffs. Not bad but, honestly, I still prefer Old Chang Kee's curry puffs which are cheaper, heartier and tastier.
What? You think I am saying this just because I am an Old Chang Kee shareholder?
Aiyoh, terrible. How could you think like that?
Anyway, I am very sure there will be comments after this to suggest curry puffs which are better than Old Chang Kee's and I promise not to delete them as long as they are not advertisements. Nice AK.
Then, to augment the impression participants might have that AK is a cheapskate, I told them about how I admire CapitaMall Trust's management very much and how I think they are doing a good job of driving shoppers to their malls. How does this show I am a cheapskate?
I revealed how I am a CapitaMalls credit card holder and also a CapitaStar member. For a whole month, I get free parking in all their malls any day of the week for 3 hours per visit per mall when I have $1,200 worth of spending using the credit card. The spending doesn't have to be money spent in their malls too. It could be payment of bills at the AXS machines etc.
Assuming that we visit their malls 10 times a month, we could easily save $30 in parking fees. That is 2.5% of $1,200. My sister shares my car and I also go out with my mom once every few days just to spend quality time together and do a bit of grocery shopping. We make sure we visit a CapitaMall when we go out and not a competitor's mall. When I meet up with friends on weekends, I always suggest meeting in a CapitaMall. Sneaky!
Anyway, there is another reason why I like CapitaMalls. Getting discounted shopping vouchers!
Once a year, they will have this special deal for members to buy $300 worth of vouchers and get another $30 for free! I bought plenty last year and I am buying again this year. Everyday, for a limited time, each member is allowed one purchase per mall. The purchase of vouchers will count towards that $1,200 spending to get free parking too. Nice.
We use the vouchers mostly when we shop in NTUC Fairprice supermarkets in CapitaMalls but they are accepted in most of the shops, really. So, it is like getting a 9.1% discount on our groceries, on top of getting Link Points (about 1.3% rebate) and NTUC shareholder rebate of 4%. When I go shopping with my mom on Tuesdays, we get additional 2% discount for senior citizens too.
Some money, we have to spend. If we can save some money in the process, why not?
Related post:
1. CapitaMall Trust: Buy the retail bond or the REIT?
2. Save $: Frank Card, Signature Card & Dividend Card.
3. Supporting my businesses and getting paid in the process.
Posted by AK71 at 9:20 AM 6 comments
Labels:
CMT,
Old Chang Kee,
savings
Invest X Congress: Q&A.
Monday, June 16, 2014
A feedback which I received from readers is that they wished I had given them some Q&A time after my presentation. I ran out of time and I think I took some of Rusmin's time too. My bad.
Courtesy of Audrey S. who had one of the front row seats. |
Well, good thing I have a blog, right? I received quite a few emails, comments and PMs from old and new readers (mostly old as I think the new ones are still too shy) after the event and you might want to think of this blog post as the Q&A session that we didn't have time for at the event:
Q1. On the importance of an emergency fund.
A1. I said that it is important to have an emergency fund that will cover at least a year or two of living expenses and that if people who were at the event didn't have an emergency fund, they should go home and build an emergency fund first and not be investing now. If the economy should go into a recession, chances are the stock market would see prices tumbling too.
Now, imagine if we should be jobless but did not have an emergency fund. We might be forced to liquidate our investments at low prices. Not a pretty picture, is it? This is especially so when that should be the time to pick up good bargains offered by Mr. Market. It would be quite depressing.
Have an emergency fund and also a war chest. Two different funds. Not to be confused with each other.
Q2. On tipping AK.
A2. In the early days, I used to have a tip button in my blog. I installed it after seeing some bloggers having one in their blogs. I removed it after receiving that $100 tip I spoke about at the event. I don't want to feel obligated to anyone to provide advice because I receive tips from them.
I am not allowed to give advice, anyway. So, that was when I started saying I am only talking to myself in my blog. People who eavesdrop do so at their own risk. ;p
Q3. On income producing assets.
A3. Stocks, bonds and real estate. Actually, there are some very interesting assets which people invest in for income. I read that people actually invest in parking lots as well as taxis in Hong Kong to generate passive income, for examples. We can also find business trusts in Singapore which invest in assets such as infrastructure, ships, ports and cable television network.
No matter what assets we decide to invest in, if it should be for income, we want to be clear that the income is generated by the assets and we want to be sure that income distributions are sustainable. The time period could vary. The reason why I sold my investment in PCRT was because I decided that the income distributions were unsustainable.
Q4. On pyramids and percentages.
A4. I spent quite a bit of time talking about the graphic that looked like a pyramid because I felt that it is something important that income investors like myself should have in mind. Being able to compartmentalise investments is helpful in guiding our behaviour towards each investment, actual or potential. The question which I have been asked has to do with percentages since I mentioned that I would not have more than 2 or 3% of my money at the top of the pyramid which represents "aggressive" or "speculative" positions. So, what about the other layers in the pyramid? What are the percentages? I would say that it depends on the individual and his motivations.
Like I said during my presentation, if he is more of a speculator, then, the graphic for him could be an inverted pyramid. For someone who is more into growth stocks but who still believe in having plenty of cash to take advantage of opportunities, then, his graphic could look like an hourglass. Remember the population pyramids we learned in Geography classes in secondary school? You get the idea.
Q5. On Marco Polo Marine.
A5. I had an investment thesis. A sound one too, I believe. If all things had remained the same, the thesis would still be valid today. Of course, things changed over time and with only a schizophrenic bowling ball, I was not able to see the changes before they happened.
For anything positive that has a greater degree of predictability or certainty, I would allow a greater exposure to it in my portfolio. If there is a stronger element of uncertainty, then, I would trim my exposure. It is one way I manage risk. So, this was why I moved my investment in Marco Polo Marine from the "growth and income" section of my pyramid upwards to the narrower "growth" section. We could even suggest that it has a speculative element with its purchase of a jack up rig scheduled for delivery in December 2015. So, logically, it had to become a smaller investment for me.
Q6. On Starbucks, Bangkok and bras.
A6. I was told by a female reader who flashed the "V" sign at me that she was not flashing a victory sign at all. I misunderstood her. She was trying to tell me that I made an inappropriate comment about saving money. Which comment was that?
I made a joke about using money saved from not buying Starbucks coffee to fly to Bangkok to buy cheap and good bras. To all the ladies who were wounded by this joke which was apparently in very bad taste, my most sincere apology.
You can tell that I am truly remorseful because I have not sent out an email to the media stating that I had sacrificed myself to raise awareness of how we could save money and how ladies could use the money saved to buy cheap bras in Bangkok to save more money. Sounds Royt? ;p
Q7. On CMT.
A7. CMT is very well run. There is no question about it. At $1.97 per unit, we are looking at an annualised yield of 5.2%. It is also trading at a premium of 15% to its NAV of $1.71. "I would sooner buy a great business at a fair price than a fair business at a great price." Warren Buffett. To me, buying REITs is almost like buying real estate. I won't want to pay more than the NAV. At NAV, perhaps, it would be good to get some, everything else remaining the same.
Finally, if you went for the event and if you want to find out about the stuff that I could have shared if I had more time, contact me to ask for my presentation slides. I will tell you how to get the slides. Then, use the slides as a guide and search for the relevant blog posts in my blog. It will probably be similar to reading an e-book but with a bit more work required on your part. ;p
More Q&A found in the comments section of this related post: Invest X Congress: Closing thoughts.
Posted by AK71 at 8:30 PM 14 comments
Labels:
advertorial,
ASSI,
CMT,
Marco Polo,
money management,
PCRT
CapitaMall Trust: Buy the retail bond or the REIT?
Monday, February 10, 2014
CapitaMall Trust is offering $200 million worth of bonds. They will mature 7 years later in 2021 and will have a coupon of 3.08%. Is this a good thing?
Well, as the REIT has quite a bit of debt due for repayment this year, this fund raising effort is necessary and timely. The coupon of 3.08% is also lower than their average cost of debt of 3.4% as at 31 Dec 2013. So, this is a good thing for unit holders of the REIT. DPU won't be negatively affected.
As S$150 million of the retail bonds will be offered to the public with the minimum investment sum set at only $2,000, it is within reach of regular retail investors like you and me. If we look at this as a kind of forced savings, a pseudo-CPF if you will, and hold it for the full 7 years period, I think it is not that bad a proposition. Why?
Well, if we hold it for the full 7 years, we won't suffer any capital loss which could happen if we decide to sell before maturity.
You mean we might lose money if we cannot hold for the full 7 years? Yes, possibly, especially with expectations that interest rates will continue rising.
So, if the risk free rate should rise by 1%, investors might expect a 4.08% return from this instead of the 3.08% being offered now, for example. The bond price would have to fall in order to offer this higher return. How much must the bond price fall to give this return? Approximately 25%.
Pause.
Pause.
Pause.
Yes, 25%. The good news is that if we were to hold to maturity, then, we are safe. So, what to do? We buy the bond with money we don't need for the next 7 years. We will get back our principal when the 7 years is up, well, if CMT doesn't go belly up. (See comments by Charlie and AK71 in the comments section below.)
So, this retail bond offering could benefit anyone investing for income in two ways. Invest in the REIT for a distribution yield of 5.64% (unit price of $1.815 at closing) or to buy the bond for a coupon of 3.08% over the next 7 years.
Wah! AK71 so silly. Of course, invest in the REIT. The yield is so much higher! Well, remember that REITs are leveraged investments. Without the gearing of about 35%, the distribution yield wouldn't be so much higher and would be closer to 3.75%. Gearing is a fantastic thing, isn't it?
Wait a minute, 3.75% is still higher than 3.08%. So, investing in the REIT is still a better choice. Indeed, it seems to be the case and that would be my preference too.
Remember that this analysis has taken place in a vacuum, totally ignoring other factors which could have a bearing on the performance of the REIT or the retail bond. However, comparing the two options thus gives us a clearer picture of which option an investor for income might want to lean towards.
Read: CapitaMall Trust launches retail bond offering.
Related post:
Saizen REIT: Risk free rate and unit price.
Posted by AK71 at 11:59 PM 20 comments
Labels:
CMT
Suntec REIT: Broke resistance.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
I was just having a chat with Nick in LP's cbox not so long ago regarding REITs and their fair values. Nick mentioned that REITs with high gearing have little growth prospects and therefore will not see their unit price go up (i.e. yield will not compress). I think he mentioned that the stock market is rather efficient when it comes to REITs.
In theory, I agree with Nick. However, I mentioned that it is hard to be sure since how much a REIT should trade at is very often a matter of sentiments, this is the same with stocks. Certain REITs are small and are not covered by analysts. They could also be too small to interest institutional investors. Their unit prices could continue to languish even if they provide decent yields with relatively safe gearing. Certain REITs are obviously overvalued and give very low yields with relatively high gearing but they continue to enjoy much attention. For example, I would not bother buying into CMT. The yield is so unattractive.
Nick used Suntec REIT as an example of a REIT with high gearing and therefore it did not see its yield compress much. However, the last session saw Suntec REIT's unit price close at a high of $1.61, forming a wickless white candle, on the back of heavy volume. Yield is compressing and quite significantly too. The last time this REIT was at $1.61 was in Jun 2008!
Could we see this REIT's unit price move higher? A wickless white candle coupled with heavy volume is bullish. So, expectation is for price to move higher. However, the MFI is nearing overbought territory. In case of a pull back, it would be interesting to see if $1.58 could be resistance turned support.
Mr. Market is always right and he enjoys his hat tricks.
Posted by AK71 at 1:44 AM 0 comments
Labels:
CMT,
FA,
Suntec REIT,
TA
S-REIT sector not attractive?
Thursday, January 13, 2011I read that JPMorgan says "valuations are no longer compelling as S-REITs are trading at a forward dividend yield of 6.0%, P/B of 1.1X and 7.5% premium to house NPV estimates."
JPMorgan singled out 2 REITs for comment:
Cuts CapitaCommercial Trust to Underweight vs Neutral on lack of growth, deteriorating portfolio quality and rich valuation.
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Posted by AK71 at 9:35 PM 0 comments
Labels:
capitamalls asia,
CCT,
CMT,
REITs
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