Capitaland, CapitaMalls Asia and NOL.

This is going to be a quick blog post as I am feeling somewhat enervated this evening.

Capitaland is causing some people some concern. Is the price going to retreat further after touching a new low of $3.07? I believe questions like this are futile. Nobody knows the answer. TA is about probability after all.

However, we can say that chances of a rebound, if not a reversal, are higher now. With a lower low in price, the MACD spots a higher low. Yes, we have a positive divergence. However, it does not mean that price could not go lower, mind you.

In the event that the positive divergence delivers the goods, look to the declining 50d and 100d MAs for resistance, currently at $3.28 and $3.37 respectively.

CapitaMalls Asia saw volume increasing significantly today with its previous low at $1.57 tested, forming a  black candle in the process. It remains to be seen if $1.57 could hold up as support or, if a lower low were to form, whether the MACD could spot a higher low. Yes, looking out for a positive divergence.

Things look pretty dicey right now.

NOL is yet another counter which is spotting a positive divergence. Lower low in the share price but a higher low in the MACD. However, with such a persistent downtrend and with a narrow trading range, it could take a mammoth effort for share price to break resistance provided by the declining 50dMA in case of a reversal effort.

Let's see if the share price could open and close higher than $1.81 (today's high) in the next session. If successful, we could have a morning star setup, a three stick reversal pattern. That would be promising.

NOL completes US$1.1b loan agreements
Thursday, 02 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI, Golden Agriculture, Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia.

The STI closed 58.06 points lower at 3,110.48. There is probably some pain and some panic in the air and we have the usual doomsayers out in force today. So, going by what I have said, am I a bull more than a bear? I am neither a bull nor a bear. I like to think that I am a pragmatist.

Most of my portfolio is made up of REITs. Today, we see AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT, LMIR, Suntec REIT and even Saizen REIT holding up rather nicely. So, I am not really affected by the sell off.

So, what did I do today?

1. Bought some Golden Agriculture shares at 68.5c a piece. You might remember that I said I sold all my shares in this company by mistake. I really want to keep some of its shares, believing in the longer term future of crude palm oil. The share price closed at 69c today.

I am not firing all my guns yet because we have to be wary of a potential head and shoulders formation. The neckline of this formation approximates 65c. If 65c were to be tested successfully on lower volume, we could add more aggressively to our long positions believing that, probably, the longer term uptrend is still intact. Of course, there is no way of knowing. So, I hedge by buying at supports. 66.5c support, if tested, would see me buying more. After all, buying at supports in an uptrend is conventional wisdom.

2. Although the trading volume of Capitaland increased today compared to the session before, it is still quite low if we compare it to 11 and 12 May which were black candle days too. Today, a black spinning top was formed and this is a reversal signal.  It needs confirmation, of course. Well, will price move lower? It could, of course. Keep an eye on $3.08, the previous low. It has to hold up in order for price to have a better chance of a near term rebound.

I bought more shares at $3.10 a piece today. This is a hedge as a retest of the previous low is a relatively safe entry as I am, after all, buying at supports. However, bearing in mind that supports can easily become resistance in a downtrend, the additional investment is a smallish one.

3. There is some similarity between CapitaMalls Asia's chart and Capitaland's. The volume is relatively lower compared to the volume back when the previous low was formed. I am also on the lookout for a possible positive divergence between the MACD and price.

I bought more shares at $1.60 a piece today as there seems to be a lot of fear in the air.

Capitaland: More downside?

A low volume pullback would suggest that weak holders were selling. A high volume sell down is something else and investors should turn cautious. The volume which accompanied the formation of a long black candle today is the highest since 11 Feb 2011. The bearish tide is very strong.

My purchases made on 12 April at the prices of $3.38 and $3.36, above the 50dMA, are now in the red.  Will I buy more to average down my price? Capitaland's NAV/share is about $3.30. At today's closing price of $3.17, it is trading at a discount to NAV. Fundamentally, Capitaland is a strong company. However, it does not mean that its share price cannot go lower from here.

I have said this before and I will say it again as a reminder to myself: FA is about value and TA is about price.

The reverse head and shoulders did not give rise to a powerful upward surge in share price. The rising price was stopped by the declining 100dMA, trapped for many sessions before finally breaking the support provided by the 50dMA. Any trader worth his salt would have cut loss then. However, I am a bad trader and held on. As price declined, volume seemed to reduce which was heartening. Of course, today's explosive volume as price plunged destroyed that illusion.

All the MAs are declining and the 20dMA seems ready to form a dead cross with the 50dMA. -DI has been rising and, with it, the ADX. The downward movement in price seems to be gathering momentum. Further downside cannot be discounted and if price were to decline further, supports are at $3.11 and $3.08. I will wait for the dust to settle before deciding on my next move.

CapitaLand down on policy tightening worries
Wednesday, 11 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Capitaland: Testing support at $3.36.

I initiated a long position in Capitaland today at $3.38 and $3.36. This was after what I said in the last blog post on this counter: "The Fibo Fan connects the low of 17 March and the high of today. Now, what I am interested in are the positions of the golden ratios in the next few sessions. 38.2% would be at $3.38 and 50% would be at $3.32 in the next session. Notice how the 20dMA seems to coincide with the 50% line? This is likely to be a strong support, if tested. In between these two golden ratios, we find the 50dMA, still declining but gently so, at $3.36. This could provide some support as well."

So, am I going to put in another buy queue for tomorrow at $3.32? Nope, looking at the charts at the end of every day is what I do and the 50% Fibo Fan line is at $3.33 tomorrow. Before that, however, we could see price supported as it closes the gap at $3.34 (1 April). So, buy queues for tomorrow would be at $3.34 and $3.33 for me.

If I were to choose between Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia, it would seem that the latter has stronger technicals. However, it would be wise not to put all the eggs in one basket, I guess.

Coincidentally, OCBC Investment Research just did a piece on Capitaland and I would like to share what they said here. Remember to take everything with a pinch of salt:
Chinese worries overwrought - BUY. With the Chinese government’s plan to build 36m low-income homes by 2015 and its increasing determination to curb property prices, we recognize the down-side risks from Chinese property prices. However, given CAPL’s current share price, we believe Chinese residential worries on CAPL are likely overwrought due to two reasons. First, Chinese residential exposure only takes up around 12% of CAPL’s total book assets (FY10, ex. cash). In addition, we believe major projects, such as the Paragon, are well thought-out and likely resilient in a weak market. We update our assumptions and maintain a BUY rating with a revised fair value of $4.10 (at parity to RNAV) versus $4.05 previously. Read complete report here.

Capitaland: Insights with Fibo Fan.

In my last blog post on Capitaland, I said that "With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter." Read it here.

Today, Capitaland's share price pulled back and closed at $3.44, the low of the day, after touching a high of $3.53, just approximating the 100dMA. A test of support at $3.41 is very likely. The original plan was to initiate a long position at $3.41, if tested. Seeing, however, that the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought despite the pull back in share price, I decided to get some insights with a Fibo Fan.

The Fibo Fan connects the low of 17 March and the high of today. Now, what I am interested in are the positions of the golden ratios in the next few sessions. 38.2% would be at $3.38 and 50% would be at $3.32 in the next session. Notice how the 20dMA seems to coincide with the 50% line? This is likely to be a strong support, if tested. In between these two golden ratios, we find the 50dMA, still declining but gently so, at $3.36. This could provide some support as well.

So? Much safer entry point is at $3.32 while entry at $3.38 could be considered as a hedge. What about $3.41? Yes, that too could be considered a hedge although I am inclined not to put in a buy queue at $3.41 anymore because the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought.

Capitaland: Going even higher?

Capitaland's share price formed a long white candle as price closed at $3.50 in the last session. Guess what. The technicals look similar to those of CapitaMalls Asia. Since I suspect that CapitaMalls Asia's share price could go higher, the same suspicion would apply to Capitaland's share price.

+DI is rising and ADX has flattened. MACD is rising strongly in positive territory. OBV suggests strong accumulation is going on. MFI is bordering overbought. RSI is high in overbought territory. Volume has lowered since 29 March when price tested the trendline support but it is higher than the low of 17 March. Uptrend support is intact but a pull back in the near term is possible.

With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter.

Capitaland: Testing supports.

Just after reading in The EDGE this past weekend that JP Morgan "upgraded the Singapore property sector from underweight to overweight largely because it believes the market is discounting physical market price declines of 12-40% which are too bearish", today, The EDGE reported that "Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector to cautious from in-line"!

JP Morgan's top picks were Capitaland and CDL. Today, these companies' share prices declined and underperformed the STI. Anyone who bought shares in these companies after JP Morgan's call would have lost money today.

This is why it is important that we do not rely solely on analysts and take their words as the Gospel truth. Listen to JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley? Your guess is as good as mine. Having said this, don't take my words as the Gospel truth either. Please read the disclaimer at the end of my blog. Oh dear, am I getting confused?

On 27 March, I said that if price should weaken, "I see immediate support at $3.27, followed by $3.24" and a low of $3.23 was touched today before closing at $3.26. Downside momentum is strong and trading volume is more than double that of the session before. It would be interesting to see if the share price would form a higher low or a lower low. With the last low at $3.08 (17 March), it would be very bearish indeed if a lower low should be formed.

Keep an eye on the volume if price should decline. A low volume pullback could suggest a buying opportunity. Wait, didn't Morgan Stanley just downgrade the sector? Why should we think of buying? Tough question. Decide for yourself.

Property firms down after broker downgrade!

Morgan Stanley said it is cautious on property developers, as pressure on their revalued net asset values (RNAV) is rising due to stagnating residential prices and growing costs. The brokerage also expects Singapore resident projects to see margin pressures on the back of increasing land and construction costs, and declining selling prices.

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

City Developments cut to ‘Underweight’ at Morgan Stanley
Tuesday, 29 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Capitaland: To sell or to buy?

Capitaland: To sell or to buy?

I read an article in The EDGE with interest as JP Morgan "upgraded the Singapore property sector from underweight to overweight largely because it believes the market is discounting physical market price declines of 12-40% which are too bearish." At the top of its buy list are Capitaland and CDL.

When I first commented on Capitaland on 10 Feb this year, I said that "A reader asked me if it was time for her to buy more Capitaland shares last evening. I told her I expect more downside today. In confirmation, the low of May 10 at $3.46 was taken out today without any hesitation by Mr. Market. The formation of three black crows now suggests that price could go lower. Some would say that it is more accurately described as two and a half black crows but I am sure the distinction is just academic.

"The next low to look at is $3.28 of July 09 and another reader today asked if it is time now to buy some especially if that low were tested. It would take someone very brave to buy in the current conditions, I feel. Could we see $3.28 taken out without hesitation by Mr. Market just like $3.46 was taken out today? Why not?" Read blog post here.

Price went on to touch a low of $3.08 on 17 March. However, anyone who bought some at the low of 17 March or thereabouts would be in the money now. The positive divergence on the MACD and share price is quite obvious: higher lows on the MACD and lower lows in share price. The ADX is also declining as the +DI crossed over the -DI on the upside: the downtrend is weakening.

For anyone still holding and for those who are thinking of entering, the question might be: "Would the price go higher?" I don't have the answer. I will say that the upward momentum seems to be weakening as long legged dojis were formed in the last two sessions. So, the downside risk is higher. The MACD, although rising, is still in negative territory and, so, we could just be seeing a rebound. Momentum is still negative.

If price should go higher, I see resistance at $3.40, a neckline. If that should break, I see a resistance band between $3.46 to $3.48. Beyond that? $3.56. If price should weaken? I see immediate support at $3.27, followed by $3.24.

I have only an academic interest in this counter (for now) but if I were to go long on this counter, I would do so on weakness as it retests supports. If I owned some shares bought at $3.08 thereabouts recently, I would sell some as it tests resistance at $3.40, if it should happen. If price goes higher, I would have more to sell. If price goes lower, I have the funds to buy more.

Capitaland: Bear is getting weaker?

Is the bear losing strength or just taking a breather? It could be interpreted as the bulls are getting stronger or the short sellers are simply covering their positions. Whatever the case may be, closing lower by 5c at $3.34 after touching a low of $3.30 means that the bears have again emerged the victors.

Volume is, once again, very high although it has been in decline for three sessions in a row. Selling is still very much alive.  Notice how the distance between the declining MACD and the signal line has widened. The MACD now approximates the low of 1 Dec 10. It does not seem likely that a higher low would form. The OBV suggests a continuation of intense distribution while the MFI and RSI are both deeper in oversold territories.

However, unless the low of July 2009 at $3.28 breaks, there is little incentive for short sellers to continue selling down the stock. For people who are thinking of cutting losses, the time for cutting losses could have come and gone. Remember that prices move down a river of hope. Cut loss when there is a rebound, not when price is testing supports.

Is AK71, therefore, hinting that the downward movement could be near its end? No, he is just wondering aloud which is something he is prone to do.

Related post:
Capitaland: Time to buy more?

Capitaland: Time to buy more?

I do not have any vested interest in Capitaland but going by the number of emails I have received on whether it is time to buy more to average down, it seems that many are vested in this counter and are still optimistic about its prospects. So, I am doing a TA on this counter out of curiosity.

The negative divergence between higher price and lowering MACD is quite obvious for the period of June 09 to Oct 09 and perhaps even Jan 10. No more higher highs since Jan 10. That was, perhaps, an early warning signal.

A reader asked me if it was time for her to buy more Capitaland shares last evening. I told her I expect more downside today. In confirmation, the low of May 10 at $3.46 was taken out today without any hesitation by Mr. Market. The formation of three black crows now suggests that price could go lower. Some would say that it is more accurately described as two and a half black crows but I am sure the distinction is just academic.

The next low to look at is $3.28 of July 09 and another reader today asked if it is time now to buy some especially if that low were tested. It would take someone very brave to buy in the current conditions, I feel. Could we see $3.28 taken out without hesitation by Mr. Market just like $3.46 was taken out today? Why not?

Isn't there any silver lining? Well, the MFI and RSI have declined into oversold territories. What does this tell us? That the counter is becoming oversold. Nothing more. Doesn't it tell us that the counter could see a rebound soon? No, it tells us that the counter could see a rebound in time but not when. Remember that in very bearish conditions, these indices could stay in oversold regions for a long time.

For people who are dead set on buying some Capitaland shares now, selling if the price rebounds would be a sound strategy. When to sell? At resistance, of course. Each time price rises to test resistance, sellers would come in to sell down the stock. Unless there is a dramatic change in sentiment, this fact is unlikely to change. Connecting the highs of 14 Oct 10 and 6 Jan 11 yields a trendline resistance. This shows a downtrend and where the resistance levels could be if there should be a rebound in time.

What would I do? I would wait for the fire to go out. I don't enjoy the prospect of being burnt. Three black crows (or two and a half) are nothing to fool around with for long holders. So, what am I waiting for? A sign. If the MACD forms a higher low soon, we could be seeing a positive divergence in the making and that is when I might tiptoe into the stock.

Good luck to all who are vested.