BREXIT and 1H 2016 income from S-REITs.

My income from S-REITs in 1Q 2016 received an enormous boost from Saizen REIT's distribution which was partially a return of capital. I said I had mixed feelings about the matter and, actually, it has created another issue for me. 

Cash as a part of my portfolio is now quite large.

Is this a problem?

Of course, keeping some excess money in savings accounts and fixed deposits is always a good idea. These are our war chests. 





However, too much cash (earning too little) and we won't be able to keep up with inflation which is one reason why we invest for income. We want to beat inflation or, at least, keep up with it. We don't want to see our wealth eroding.

To be quite honest, I am in no hurry to re-invest all the distribution received from Saizen REIT in 1Q 2016. 

Approximately, I received 8 years worth of "dividends" (in the guise of capital gain) at one go. So, I have quite a bit of time to wait for good investment opportunities. 

In the meantime, some of my cash is in OCBC 360 and UOB ONE, with most of my cash getting 0.8% to 1.9% in interest income from savings accounts and fixed deposits which are virtually risk free.

However, being mortal (and fallible), I couldn't help but nibble a bit at some S-REITs in 2Q 2016.





1. Cambridge Industrial Trust. I have been holding to a much reduced position in this REIT for many years and in 2Q 2016 decided to make a small addition to my position at 52.5c a unit. 

To be quite honest, I feel that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is probably a more attractive investment. The two REITs have comparable yields but AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has a stronger balance sheet and a business strategy that leaves less to the imagination. 

However, I decided to go with Cambridge Industrial Trust this time because my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is already quite big.







2. I-REIT Global. I only became an investor after some time from the IPO which I thought wasn't attractively priced enough and I added to my investment in the REIT last August at 65.5c a unit. 

I decided to nibble at 71c a unit in 2Q 2016 because even at that price, the distribution yield is still pretty attractive. I also like the REIT for its portfolio of German freehold office properties and their high quality tenants.

If BREXIT should spark a contagion, I would become a lot more cautious in adding to my investment in the REIT as its income is in Euros although having real estate in Germany, arguably Europe's strongest economy, I feel that there is some degree of stability.







3. Soilbuild REIT. I decided to add to my investment in the REIT which has seen a large decline in unit price due to issues with one of their tenants, Technics Offshore Engineering, which did not pay their rent.

The REIT has since been paid the firm's bank guarantee of $11.85 million by UOB. This is equivalent to 18 months of rental and it will give the REIT time to search for a new tenant.

In arriving at a price which I am more comfortable to buy at, I noted that the rent payable by Technics is almost $8 million a year which is about 10% of the REIT's revenue of $80 million a year. 

Assuming the REIT is unable to find another tenant after 18 months, without taking into consideration other costs, DPU would decline by 10% accordingly. So, happy with the distribution yield at 73c a unit back in December 2015, with the latest development, I decided that I would only add to my investment at 66c or so a unit.







Together, these nibbles used up less than 10% of the distribution I received from Saizen REIT in 1Q 2016. I think it is important to put them in perspective. They are really only nibbles.

S-REITs are leveraged income instruments. So, it won't be wrong to say that I remain wary as to how rising interest rates in the future could impact distributable income negatively, all else remaining equal.

There isn't anything retail investors like me can do but to be more conservative when it comes to debt and investments which depend largely on debt to bring home the bacon especially if growth is not particularly promising.






However, thanks to BREXIT, interest rates are likely to remain low in the near future and the most disadvantaged in the financial world are probably still the savers. In the search for higher yields, S-REITs are natural beneficiaries.

So, how much bacon did I receive from my investments in S-REITs in 1H 2016?

S$ 397,294.28








S-REITs remain relevant instruments for the income investor and I will continue to keep an eye on them, buying more of the ones I like if Mr. Market should go into a depression.

Related post:
1Q 2016 income from S-REITs.

Reader is upset to have missed the boat.

This is an email from a reader:
Hi AK,

I had not been checking the news on Saizen reits. But i had been following the price.

I am disappointed to hear that it has completed their transfer of assets to Triangle TMKback in March 2016.

Just wanted to share my disappointment with you, as you know i am accumulating my funds in hope that i could start buying SAIZEN Reits.

Now i felt completely demotivated.

Is that why its at 0.09cents? Excuse my ignorance.

Regards,
B

Others might have missed the Saizen REIT boat but for different reasons.

They missed it because it is Japanese. Many were fearful because they heard from people that Japan is going the way of the Dodo. Well, it easy to believe that. 

Japan has been suffering from deflation for 20 years and housing prices are so depressed that a studio apartment in Tokyo is way cheaper than one in Singapore's CBD by a big margin.


Well, I am not going to tell B or anyone if they should buy or sell anything. I always say that my blog is a place where I come to talk to myself but it just happens that there are people listening in. Ahem...

All of us want to make money from Mr. Market. No one wants to lose money.

It has been said that the fear of losing money is a much stronger emotion than the feeling of greed to make more money. 

That is easy to understand because we want to protect what we already have in hand.

We don't have any emotional attachment to money that we have yet to make.

Anyway, there are many boats out there and there will be another boat we can board.

Don't be upset if we have missed a boat.

"Money not made is not the same as money lost."

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Why did I buy and would I buy more?
2. Saizen REIT: Offer of $1.172 per unit.

1Q 2016 income from S-REITs.

This is the first time I am blogging about income received from S-REITs in the first quarter of the year. So, what did I do in the S-REITs space in 1Q 2016?

Honestly? Nothing.

The last time I did anything was in December 2015 when I added to my position in Soilbuild REIT at 73c a unit which I thought was a fair price to pay.

In 1Q 2016, I received income from the following S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Ind. REIT
2. First REIT
3. Saizen REIT
4. K-REIT
5. Suntec REIT
6. FCOT
7. Cambridge Ind. Trust
8. Cache Logistics Trust
9. Sabana REIT
10. IREIT
11. LMIR
12. Soilbuild REIT

Total received in 1Q 2016: 

S$ 379,630.94

This is really due to a bumper payout from Saizen REIT which will not be repeated.

Am I pleased that my patience has been rewarded or am I sad that I will no longer be receiving a regular income from a portfolio of freehold residential properties in Japan? 

Well, a bit of both, really. 

Yes, I have mixed feelings.

Now, what am I going to do with the money that came in? 

Start a few fixed deposits. I know that a 9 months fixed deposit at CIMB will pay 1.8% per annum and a 12 months fixed deposit in BOC will pay 1.9% per annum. UOB is offering 1.7% per annum for a 13 months fixed deposit. Yes, I know.

To fellow shareholders of Saizen REIT who are wondering what to do with the money, although it is important to have a war chest ready, remember to reduce the cost of holding cash while waiting for the next investment opportunity to come along.

Congratulations and good luck!

Related posts:
1. 2015 full year income from S-REITs.
2. A lesson on the right prices and luck.

2015 full year income from S-REITs.

I did not do anything substantial to my investments in S-REITs in 4Q 2015. I just collected dividends, mostly.

However, it seems that I would be receiving less income from S-REITs in the not too distant future as Saizen REIT looks likely to be delisted as a firm offer of $1.17 per unit was received from a potential buyer.

Saizen REIT is currently one of my top three investments in S-REITs. Off the top of my head, it contributes to around 20% of my passive income from S-REITs.

So, losing Saizen REIT will greatly impact my income level in future, for sure.

Readers who have been following my blog since its inception in 2009 will remember that I was, back then, already a strong proponent of investing in Saizen REIT for income (and for its very cheap valuation).

Needless to say, I ate quite a bit of my own pudding.

So, I have grown somewhat attached to Saizen REIT after so many years. It is like having a good son who has been giving me regular and meaningful pocket money.

Now, this good son is going to give me a lump sum payment which is not a bad thing either but on the condition that there will be no more pocket money in future.

I just have to make sure that I remain financially prudent, I guess. Of course, there is no guarantee of this. Stress...

15A Changi Business Park Central 1.

Did I do anything at all in the S-REIT space?

I did increase my exposure to Soilbuild REIT by about 15%, taking advantage of the weakness in its unit price. I was waiting to see if Mr. Market would sell to me at an even lower price than 73c a unit but it didn't happen. Not for me, anyway.

However, 73c a unit was a fairly good deal and it is still lower price than the additional investment I made in the REIT back in August when stock prices plunged badly. That was 75c, if I remember correctly.

Including Q4's income distributions from my investments in S-REITs, my 2015 full year income from S-REITs is: S$90,344.81

This works out to be about S$7,528.00 a month.

I will be blogging about my investments in non-REITs next week. If you are interested, look out for it.


Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: A firm offer.
2. Soilbuild REIT: A nibble.
3. 9M 2015 income from S-REITs.

Saizen REIT: A lesson on the right prices and luck.

A reader, Felix Leong, left me a comment on how Saizen REIT's shareholders are just lucky to get a good offer.

As I was replying to his comment, I decided that there is a lesson in this and that I should blog my response instead.

Felix Leong's comment:

Hi Felix,

Indeed, luck has a role to play in this and we should not think that this development at Saizen REIT has nothing to do with luck.

Whenever anyone tells me that he doesn't believe in luck, I would wish him luck.

When people buy any REIT that is trading at a discount to NAV, I would ask them why?

If they are hoping for the value to be unlocked, then, I would wish them luck. They would need it.

Why?

It might or might not happen.

When we buy into a REIT, to me, the main motivation should be for income.

This is a reason why although some are waving flags around for Sabana REIT now, shouting that it represents good value for money because of the huge discount to NAV, I am not convinced. 

I am not saying I am right and they are wrong. I am just saying that I am not convinced that they are right. I have shared my thoughts in a couple of blog posts on why I feel this way too.

I do feel sorry for those who got into Saizen REIT at its IPO so many years ago at $1 a share. We should all take it as a good learning experience and hopefully become wiser investors.

I rarely get anything at IPOs and when Saizen REIT had its IPO, I told friends and family that it wasn't worth the asking price. It just wasn't attractive. That was during my pre-blogging days, of course.

An important thing I try to remind myself all the time (although sometimes I forget) is that all investments are good at the right price.

So, I make an effort to keep an open mind about opportunities. Those stocks which are unloved and neglected could turn out to quite rewarding.

As investors, it is important to know what we want from an investment and if it is able to bring home the bacon.

If what we want an investment to deliver depends on luck, then, it is more speculation than investment.

When I got into Saizen REIT when I did, I was looking at an estimated distribution yield of almost 10%. Of course, there were many other considerations which, to me, made it a great investment for income at the price Mr. Market was offering.

The investment was a good fit for my motivation.

Saizen REIT has been a good investment for me and now Lady Luck has decided to smile on me.

I just hope that she would continue smiling until the sale is completed.

Yes, we still need luck on our side as it is not over until it is over.


Related posts:

1. Saizen REIT: Deeply undervalued but is it a buy for you?

2. Sabana REIT: What is the right price to pay?

Saizen REIT: Can we make some money from arbitrage?

Saizen REIT is suddenly getting a lot of attention. This is certainly a far cry from the time when I first blogged about it in 2009.

Now, with a price of $1.10 a unit, many are wondering if they could benefit from arbitrage.

Buy at $1.10, get one round of income distribution and get to receive $1.17 sometime middle of next year.

In a comment I made last evening in my last blog post on Saizen REIT, I said that we might not get $1.17 a unit next year because the buyer will only pay 95% of the consideration with the balance 5% to be retained in an escrow account.

Basically, if the buyer should identify some engineering work required for the assets being acquired, they have the right to draw upon the money in the escrow account for remedial work. They will have 28 days to do this.

We can only hope that there isn't that much engineering work required and that most of the money in the escrow account would be released to Saizen REIT in due course.

There was also a worry about exchange rate and how a weaker JPY in the next few months could affect payment to shareholders in S$.

This is no longer a concern because the very prudent management at Saizen REIT have entered into a currency hedging arrangement.

So, for those who would like to buy into Saizen REIT to enjoy some arbitrage benefit, what should we do?

Anything below $1.11 would be safer. Buying at prices higher than that would be making a wager on the buyer not drawing too much upon the funds in the escrow account.

Finally, take heed the warning provided by Mr. Chang Sean Pey that there is no assurance or certainty that the transaction will be completed. So, trade with caution.


See: Hedging arrangements.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Firm offer by Lone Star.

Saizen REIT: Net offer price of $1.172 per unit by Lone Star.

The news is out.

Purchaser is Triangle TMK which is a Japanese affiliate of Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV and Lone Star Funds. The Purchase Consideration is at a 3.4% premium to the appraised value of the Properties.

 

The Purchase Consideration is estimated to translate into an implied net offer price of S$1.172 per unit of Saizen REIT (“Unit”), or a slight premium to Saizen REIT’s adjusted net asset value (“NAV”) per Unit.

The Proposed Transaction is conditional upon, among others, approval from Unitholders at an extraordinary general meeting of Saizen REIT to be convened and is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2016 and no later than 31 March 2016 or such other date as the parties may agree in writing.

 
See press release: here.




So, new shareholders who bought into Saizen REIT even at 92c or 93c a unit in the days before the trading halt yesterday would be in for a nice windfall too.

To be quite honest, I am pleasantly surprised because I was expecting an offer that is, perhaps, at a 5% or even 10% discount to NAV which means a price of $1.03 to $1.08 per unit.

I was being realistic because it is much more difficult to find a buyer who is able to buy the entire portfolio of more than 130 buildings at one go compared to selling one building at a time.

$1.17 a unit exceeds my expectation and I am in favour of the sale although I will miss having Saizen REIT in my portfolio. I have had it for so long and it has been good to me as a stable and meaningful income generator in the last few years.

Now, I notice some who are saying that Saizen REIT provides a good lesson on investing in REITs and that if we buy a REIT at a big discount to NAV, we are safe. This is not 100% accurate and, in fact, it could be a dangerous belief.

I did not buy into Saizen REIT just because it was trading at a huge discount to NAV but because the NAV was also realistic. This was just one of the many considerations I had. There were also other reasons which made Saizen REIT a great investment to me.





Interested readers might want to read my past blog posts on Saizen REIT and why I was so convinced that Saizen REIT was a fantastic investment. (Use the "Search ASSI" feature at the top of my blog.)

Now, with Saizen REIT set to be delisted, I will see my cash position swell as it is one of my 3 largest investments in S-REITs and accounts for slightly more than 20% of my passive income from S-REITs.

For me, it will be like getting 17 income distributions all at once which is better than getting them over a period of 8.5 years, for sure.

A dollar today is better than a dollar sometime in the future.





This is a good outcome and I must not be sentimental.

Congratulations to all my fellow shareholders who got in at the right time and held on till today.

Huat ah!

(Read comment made on 2 Nov 15 at 6.09 pm below.)

Related posts:
1. Possible delisting of Saizen REIT.
2. Saizen REIT: Deeply undervalued.
3. Saizen REIT: Sell the entire portfolio?

Possible delisting of Saizen REIT, First REIT and LMRT.

You know what they say about how things just seem to happen all at once sometimes? It never rains, it pours.

What are the chances of getting three strikes in a row? A turkey! That certainly got my bowling ball excited.

Just a few days ago, we heard news that Saizen REIT received a firm offer for their assets and this could well lead to the REIT being delisted if the offer is accepted. 

On my FB wall and here in ASSI, various discussions went on as to how much the offer could be and what could we do to fill the hole in our passive income if Saizen REIT were to be delisted.

Well, we might have more to ponder over after a friend shared this with me:

Lippo Group plans to shift two real estate investment trusts (Reits) with 35 trillion rupiah (S$3.63 billion) in assets from Singapore to Indonesia in order to benefit from tax breaks offered by Jakarta, its chief executive said.

The property-to-retail group's two Singapore-listed Reits are Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and First Real Estate Investment Trust.

Source: The Business Times

Saizen REIT and First REIT are two of my biggest investments in S-REITs. My largest investment in S-REITs is, of course, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Together, these three REITs account for the majority of my passive income from S-REITs this year.

Although I sold off a large portion of my investment in LMRT (formerly LMIR) some time ago, I still have a meaningful investment in the REIT. Several percentage points might not be a big deal by themselves but add them to what I might be losing from Saizen REIT and First REIT, they become quite significant.

I could be realising significant capital gains but losing a big percentage of passive income from S-REITs in the not too distant future. It is not a tragedy, for sure, but it still creates a problem for me.

I will have to carefully consider how to make the best use of the money if the delisting of these three REITs should really happen.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Received a firm offer.
2. 9M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

Saizen REIT: Received a firm offer and unit price jumps.

Messages were coming in fast asking me what was happening to Saizen REIT as its unit price shot up. Well, this happened:

Further thereto, the Manager wishes to announce that the Manager has received a firm offer in relation to the assets of Saizen REIT which the Evaluation Committee and the joint financial advisers are currently reviewing and evaluating. No definitive agreements have been entered into and there is no assurance that the offer will be accepted and that definitive agreements will be entered into.

 

 Earlier in the year, I had a blog post on how undervalued Saizen REIT was. Of course, it wasn't really a new angle on the REIT as I blogged about it many times over the last few years.

In that blog post back in April, I asked if investing in Saizen REIT was a good idea for you. Whether it was a good idea would depend on your motivation and your temperament.

Although deeply undervalued, I said "whether the value could be unlocked and returned to unit holders is much harder to say. Could we see an acquisition by a residential J-REIT?"

I also said that "anyone who is buying into Saizen REIT, hoping for value to be unlocked, will have to be patient and also remember that it might or might not happen."

Of course, regular readers know that Saizen REIT is a big part of my portfolio for years. I have been patiently waiting for value to be unlocked and while I waited, I received regular dividends.

It is not a bad thing to be paid while we wait, I feel.

So, what did you do?

Announcement: here.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Deeply undervalued?
2. 9M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

9M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

The stock market has declined a fair bit in the last three months. For a while, there was some panic. Even now, there is probably a lingering sense of unease in the air.


We must know what to do when presented with a situation. Knowing what to do depends on our own set of circumstances and also motivations. 

Recently, a reader asked me if she should sell a stock which she said she bought at a much higher price some time ago. 

I asked her to consider if she would buy that stock now at the current price if she didn't buy it at a much higher price earlier.

We want to buy at a price we would not sell at and to sell at a price we would not buy at.

There isn't a universal right or wrong answer. At least I do not believe there is. We could each have an opinion on something's value or the lack of it.

Anyway, what have I done in the last three months?

In the last three months, in the S-REIT space, I added IREIT Global to my portfolio as its unit price declined. I like the properties the REIT holds but I thought its IPO price unattractive.

To own freehold office buildings in Germany, arguably the strongest economy in Europe, is an attractive idea. At the current unit price, an 8% distribution yield is achievable.

My initial investment in the REIT is not a big one. In fact, it is relatively small and probably gives me only a toehold.

IREIT Global's relatively high gearing level and the weak Euro are pertinent concerns. 

However, IREIT Global's loans are in Euros. So, they do have a natural currency hedge. This is unlike LMIR's situation. 

Having said this, I feel that the largest decline in the Euro against the S$ could well be behind us. The S$ has weakened considerably as well. 

My reasoning here is really similar to my earlier reasoning on how we shouldn't see much more weakness in the JPY against the S$ when considering whether to invest in Saizen REIT or Croesus Retail Trust.

I also added to my long position in Soilbuild REIT at the end of August, paying 75c per unit, having avoided adding to my position as the REIT's unit price rose to the mid 80s earlier.

I like the fact that the REIT benefits from the shifting of certain commercial activities from office buildings to business parks which form a relatively big percentage of its assets.

I believe that Soilbuild REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT are well managed industrial properties S-REITs. They will face challenges as the economy soften but they should be more resilient than office REITs which predominantly have office space in Singapore's CBD.

Next, I think it is probably timely to comment on a development which has been gaining momentum in the S-REIT space.

Many S-REITs have DRPs (or DRIPs), Distribution Re-investment Plan. Some readers asked me if I would take part in these plans. 

My answer is that I invest in S-REITs for income. So, I would usually take the cash distributions unless there is a chance to benefit from arbitrage which happened once before for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and some might remember that I blogged about it.

We must stay realistic. Remember that S-REITs' unit prices could come under pressure in the short term. What is short term? Maybe, the next one or two years.

Many S-REITs' unit prices have already declined somewhat in recent months. This is probably in response to interest rates which have risen because the S$ has weakened quite significantly against the US$.

When the US Fed finally moves to increase interest rate by, say, 0.25%, before the end of the year we might see a knee jerk reaction which could send S-REITs' unit prices lower as risk free rate rises.

Taking distributions in cash would give us more resources to take advantage of such a situation if it should come to pass.

I do not think that S-REITs' distribution yields would rise to the levels seen a few years ago during the Global Financial Crisis but the possibility that we could see yield expansion happening exists.

To be sure, there is really no need to be pessimistic. S-REITs remain relevant tools for income investors. They are not going to go kaput. We should try to stay pragmatic.

How much? Oh, sorry, I have been rambling.

Total income from S-REITs for first 9 months in 2015: S$73,139.35.

This works out to be S$8,126.59 per month.

Related post:

6M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

Saizen REIT: TKs.

When I was a soldier in the Singapore Armed Forces, I learned a Hokkien phrase with the abbreviation "TK". It was one of those inane things that I picked up during those two and a half years that somehow got stuck in my mind. If you don't know what the abbreviation is, here is a hint: It has to do with size and a part of the male anatomy. OK, no more.

Anyway, today, I replied to an email from a reader about TKs. However, these are TKs of a very different nature. These are the TKs of the Japanese business world.

Hi AK,

I am currently trying to understand more about Saizen Reit, a stock that you happen to own. Hence, I would like to ask if you could share with me the structure of the REIT. I was reading their annual report and I could not understand the jargon.

Can you kindly explain about what is the relationship between Saizen and the TK operators because I do not understand who actually owns the properties. Thanks in advance for your help. 

I am a noobie trying to learn more about this Reit and I got confused by its structure.

Warm Regards,

KF

Hi KF,

The TK structure is one way foreigners can invest in Japanese real estate. It is a typical Japanese real estate investment structure, in fact. The TK or Tokumei kumiai is a legally binding contract.

So, when we buy into Saizen REIT, we are buying into a foreign investor that has a stake in these TKs. Saizen REIT has contributed money to the TKs and has the right to share in the profits but Saizen REIT is not allowed to run the TKs. This is why there are TK operators who are actually the local operational managers in Japan.

In case you are wondering, Saizen REIT is entitled to 97% of the profits generated by the TKs.

The investors own the assets in the TK, not the TK operators. Saizen REIT has invested money and they own the assets.

Best wishes,
AK

OK, I think I am going to have some rice and "tau kee" stewed in soya sauce for lunch.

See the TK? ;p



Related posts:
1. Deeply undervalued but is it a BUY for you?
2. Saizen REIT: Still a good investment for income?

6M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

I shared how and why I reduced my investment in Sabana REIT substantially and the much lower level of passive income received from my S-REIT portfolio last year was mostly due to this. I retain a very small position in Sabana REIT as a reminder or incentive for me to track new developments, if any. The REIT could become a good investment again in future if the management get their act together.

I feel that although the distribution yield looks relatively attractive for Sabana REIT now, investors want to be cautious and remember that there are only a few months "before the expiry of 11 master leases (and) the Manager is working towards renewing or securing new master leases for 7 of them. The remaining 4 will likely be converted into multi-tenanted buildings." Occupancy level will most likely fall and DPU will most likely take a hit, all else remaining equal.

I am still rather happy with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. They are doing the right things to add value for unitholders, especially in the way they go about re-developing their properties to max out their plot ratios. I really like how they secure pre-commitment before embarking on such projects and I like the fact that insiders have a meaningful stake in the REIT too. This REIT is definitely one up on Sabana REIT.

I haven't really made any changes to my portfolio of S-REITs (from July 2014 to June 2015) apart from initiating a long position in Soilbuild REIT. The expectation that the REIT would benefit from commercial entities moving their activities (like call centres and IT departments) to business parks should pan out nicely.

So, although industrial properties S-REITs are expected to face challenges from more supply of industrial space in the next 2 years or so, Soilbuild REIT should weather this relatively well.

What about my investment in Saizen REIT? Well, there is some talk on how residential property prices in Japan have gone up in recent times because foreigners are more enthusiastically investing in Japan again. There is also some talk about how prices have gone up too much because rentals have not gone up in tandem. So, some are saying that prices must come down and maybe they would.

Now, perhaps, it is timely to remind ourselves that Japanese residential property prices continually fell for two decades and the fall in prices had been much sharper than the fall in rental in those twenty years.

Something I blogged about in December 2009: here.

The increase in property prices since the introduction of Abenomics is just a bump in comparison to the fall off the cliff in those twenty years. Saizen REIT remains very undervalued and should be a natural beneficiary of the recovery of the Japanese housing market.

My three largest investments in S-REITs are still:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. First REIT
3. Saizen REIT

They account for the bulk of my passive income from S-REITs.

I also have smaller long positions in the following S-REITs:

4. Sabana REIT
5. FCOT
6. Suntec REIT
7. LMIR
8. Cambridge Industrial Trust
9. Cache Logistics Trust
10. Keppel REIT
11. Soilbuild REIT



Half year (2015) passive income from S-REITs: $45,626.80.

On a monthly basis, this works out to be $7,604.46 a month. The slight improvement compared to 2014 is probably due to the addition of Soilbuild REIT to my portfolio.

Although interest rates are expected to rise in the near future, it would be a mistake to think that S-REITs will all go the way of the Dodo. Remember that S-REITs might be bond-like but they are not bonds.

S-REITs are really property leasing businesses and they are more likely to do better compared to bonds in a rising interest rate environment. S-REITs are, generally speaking, still relevant instruments for income investors.

Related posts:
1. 2014 full year income from S-REITs.
2. AK says create your own Dividend Machines.

An eye on Accordia Golf Trust, Croesus Retail Trust and Saizen REIT: 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Japan and the Yen.

On Vesak Day, a huge undersea earthquake was reported 874 kilometers from Tokyo. The epicentre was deep in the Pacific Ocean. Seismologists warned that another quake could be coming. See report here: Japan Today.

Expecting some negative reaction from Mr. Market, I looked at the prices of Accordia Golf Trust, Croesus Retail Trust and Saizen REIT this morning. Of the three, the unit price of Accordia Golf Trust retreated by almost 10%. It was a big decline but it probably had to do with the fact that the counter went XD as well.

Accordia Golf Trust announced their maiden DPU of 5.71c for the 8 months period since its date of listing. This included non-recurring gains. Based on the regular operation of the golf courses under management, it was estimated that full year DPU could come in at 6.23c. However, this was based on an exchange rate of S$1 to JPY 88.4. This was a couple of months ago.

Of course, the JPY has weakened significantly since then. The rate is now S$1 to JPY 92. This rate was last seen in late 2014 and could be the reason for the particular weakness in Accordia Golf Trust when the unit prices of both Croesus Retail Trust and Saizen REIT held up rather well. Accordia Golf Trust is, after all, the only one of the three that does not hedge currency risk and we must rightly expect DPU to reduce in S$ terms, therefore.

If we expect the DPU to reduce proportionally, we might see a revised full year DPU of 5.91c. Buying more at 71c to 72c a unit today means a distribution yield of 8.2% to 8.32%. If we need a minimum yield of 8% to make the investment worthwhile for us, then, based on the current weaker exchange rate, all else remaining equal, we should be able to accept a unit price of up to 74c or so. Coincidentally, this was the entry price of my current long position too.

Further weakness in the JPY cannot be discounted but I have made a case before on why I think the JPY's biggest declines are probably behind us. Getting into Accordia Golf Trust at its IPO was a bad idea for various reasons. At current prices, I believe that the business trust presents a decent enough investment for the income investor.

See an article in NextInsight on Accordia Golf Trust: here.

Related posts:
1. Accordia Golf Trust: Yield of 12.16%?
2. Croesus Retail Trust: ONE's MALL.
3. Saizen REIT: Deeply undervalued.

Saizen REIT: Deeply undervalued but is it a BUY for you?

Regular readers know that I have been invested in Saizen REIT for a long time. Some might even be able to write a script for a K-drama based on my experience with the REIT. Anyway, if you are interested in the history, just use the search function found in the top right area of this blog. I shan't bore you.

I mentioned Saizen REIT in the last "Evening with AK and friends" session and went on to highlight why it is one of my top 3 investments in REITs. I think that episode might have interested quite a few members of the audience as I received not one, not two but three emails asking me whether the REIT is priced fairly now. I must say that the emails weren't phrased exactly like this but they were close enough.

Taken on my last trip to Japan. Love the chocolates. Cheap too.

I will say that we must question, as always, our motivation for thinking of investing in Saizen REIT. Is it for income or capital gain?

For someone who is thinking of capital gain, the fact that Saizen REIT is trading at a huge discount to valuation might be the reason for his interest. At 86c a unit, it is trading at more than 20% discount to its NAV/unit of about $1.10. This is despite the continual fall in the JPY against the S$. Even at its high of 98c touched almost a year ago, it would still have been undervalued based on the weaker JPY today.

The first question we have to ask, of course, is whether the NAV is realistic. The best way to ascertain this is to see what price Mr. Market is willing to pay for the REIT's properties. In September last year, I said that the REIT sold two properties at premiums of 19% and 12.8% above book value. That told me that the REIT's NAV was conservative. In the REIT's February 2015 presentation, they reported that another property was sold at 16% above valuation.

There is some deep value in Saizen REIT's portfolio of freehold residential properties in Japan, I believe. However, whether the value could be unlocked and returned to unit holders is much harder to say. Could we see an acquisition by a residential J-REIT? I know that a substantial shareholder, Argyle Street Management (ASM) was pressing for something to this effect.

So, anyone who is buying into Saizen REIT, hoping for value to be unlocked, will have to be patient and also remember that it might or might not happen. While waiting, Saizen REIT offers about 6c in DPU per year. Based on 86c a unit, that is a distribution yield of about 7%.

For someone who is thinking of investing in Saizen REIT for income, it is important to bear in mind that income is generated in JPY by the REIT's assets but converted to S$ for distribution. There is always risk in foreign exchange rates. What do I think?

Gingko tree. So many of them in Japan.

The JPY has fallen a lot in the last 2 years against the S$. It is my opinion that any further fall is likely to be mild as:

1. The S$ is also weakening because the M.A.S. is mindful that Singapore must remain competitive and with the dramatic fall in the price of crude oil, Singapore's economy has become mildly deflationary of late.

2. The Japanese government wouldn't want to cause hardship for the Japanese people which any greater fall in the value of the JPY might bring. Already, the people are grappling with much higher inflation in prices of imported goods.

Having said this, for the income investor, what is very important to note is that Saizen REIT's loans are amortising in nature. I have mentioned this many times in the past when I was more active in blogging about the REIT. This means that the principle sums shrink over time as they are paid down. Amongst S-REITs, Saizen REIT is probably the only one that has this feature.

Also, amongst S-REITs, Saizen REIT is probably the only one with very long term loans with many maturing in the 2030s and 2040s. Long term loans actually make sense for REITs because property investments are, logically, long term commitments.

Anyway, the point is that because the loans are amortising in nature, Saizen REIT cannot distribute all its income to unitholders. Some of it goes to amortising the loans. However, because Saizen REIT amassed quite a bit of cash from many of its unit holders who exercised their warrants, they are able to use that money to amortise the loans, distributing income as if the loans were non-amortising. One day, this money will run out. Then what?

Then, everything remaining equal, we might see the DPU reduce by two fifths. So, distribution yield might become 4% then. This is something investors in Saizen REIT at the current price must be aware of and be comfortable with.

I estimated before that it would be many years down the road before it happens but when it does happen, the REIT would be even stronger in its balance sheet as its debt burden would have reduced significantly. I like this very much as it would give the REIT more debt headroom to acquire more properties which would mean a higher DPU. In other words, the REIT would be able to grow without having to raise funds from its unit holders.

There are many things which I cannot foresee happening or not happening. Could Abenomics breathe life into Japan's economy in a sustainable manner? Would demand for housing improve, leading to higher occupancy and asking rents? Would the JPY sink much lower?  These are some questions I do not have definite answers to.

However, there are some things that I do know and those are the things that inform my decision to be invested in Saizen REIT, those are the things that tell me Saizen REIT matches my motivation as an income investor. If there should be an unlocking of value sometime in the next few years, it would be a bonus for me. In the meantime, I am quite happy to be paid regularly.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Sell the entire portfolio?
2. Saizen REIT: Is the dividend sustainable?
3. Saizen REIT: Why did I buy? Would I buy more?

What would I do if I had $750,000 to start investing?

By now, I have almost 2,500 blog posts here in ASSI and most of them are about personal finance and investments although not all of them are related to investing in stocks.

Sometimes, I worry if I am sending the right messages to readers and I am actually quite happy, even grateful, when readers write to me to clarify their doubts. I try to do a good job in communication but there will be times I can do better.

I received a letter recently from a reader which sent alarm bells ringing in my head:

Dear AK

Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge because i am learning a lot from it.

I am considering investing Saizen Reit which yield 7-8% p.a. If i do my mathematics right, i will need 750'000 to yield $5000 per month to support our family household expenses.

Correct me if i am wrong.

If i have $750'000 cash to invest into Saizen Reit, wouldnt it be better investing the money elsewhere. My question is would you invest $750'000 all into Saizen Reit to give you passive income $5000 per month.

Please forgive my ignorance.

Regards
B

My reply:


Hi B,

Welcome to my blog. :)

You will have to understand a couple of things:

1. Investing in a REIT is not like locking money in a fixed deposit. So, you shouldn't be looking at yield and yield only. It is more than that.

2. Putting all your money in a single investment to have the income it generates cover all your household expenses exposes you to concentration risks.

If I had $750,000 to start investing with, I wouldn't put all of it into Saizen REIT or any one single investment. I wouldn't be fully invested either.

Without knowing more, I cannot say what I would do in your shoes but although my own investment in Saizen REIT is a significant part of my investment portfolio, it is not my entire portfolio.

Best wishes,
AK


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Related posts:
1. How to have peace of mind investing?
2. Income investing and position sizing.
3. Saizen REIT: Is the DPU sustainable?