CapitaMalls Asia: Any correction is a buying opportunity.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price is enjoying a strong follow through after breaking resistance. Further increase in share price is likely to meet stronger resistance at $1.93, the 138.2% Fibo line. Overcoming this resistance level would see the next two golden ratios at $2.00 and $2.07 providing resistance.

It remains to be seen if $1.84 is resistance turned support. Stronger support is at $1.705 as that was a many times tested resistance that finally gave way after a period of seven months. Bears would have to be out in full force and more in order to push the share price below $1.705 as the bulls who missed the boat earlier would likely try to get on the boat at this very price, give or take a couple of bids.

All the daily MAs are rising and the picture has turned nicely bullish. Any correction to test supports would be a buying opportunity.

We reckon there may be opportunities for CMA to monetize some assets in 2013, such as Queensbay Mall and its 50% stake in ION Orchard. With continued strong underlying performance from the malls, we maintain our BUY recommendation. Target price is raised to SGD2.25. (Maybank Kim Eng, 29 Oct 12)

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Broke resistance.

China Minzhong: Accumulate on weakness.

There are a few stocks which I would like to accumulate on weakness in the near term. China Minzhong is one such stock.

Many like Jim Rogers have put forth a convincing case of an impending food crisis. In the event of global food shortages, it is logical to expect food prices to rise. So, investing in food producers seems to make good sense.

Improving numbers, insider buying, an experienced management and the right industry, I believe China Minzhong is a good company to invest in. Also, there could be more positive catalysts and these could push its share price higher.

After hitting a low of 53c in early June, its share price rose to hit a high of 87.5c on 19 Oct. That is a meteoric 65% increase in a short span of 4 months.

The daily chart is showing some fatigue. Some consolidation is to be expected. The immediate support is at 78c. If that should go, next supports are at 74c and 70c. The MACD which is a pure price oscillator suggests that supports could continue to be tested. However, the Chaikin Money Flow does not show any significant outflow of funds which suggests that long holders are not in any hurry to sell. We could see share price doing what Daryl Guppy calls a correction using time which means people waiting on the side hoping to get back in when there is a price correction could be disappointed.

The weekly chart shows quite clearly that the downtrend has reversed. Breaking immediate support could see share price declining to test the 20w MA in the longer term. This currently approximates 71c. As the 20w MA is rising, the longer term support would be a higher value over time. The declining 100w MA, currently at $1.10, could cap any further price increase in the near future.

Buying when there is a test of supports with longer term MAs rising seems like a good idea. However, remember, TA shows where the supports and resistance are but it does not mean that they will be tested.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Opportunity in slowing momentum.

“If food inflation in China remains high, there is a high chance that the management’s revenue target (of 15% growth) could be surpassed.” Maybank-KE keeps a Buy call with $1.16 target. Read full article in The EDGE.

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Check it out:
13.3 inch Aluminum Shell Slim AirBook Notebook Computer with WIFI

Related post:
Save money with low prices and free shipping globally!

Black, white or grey?

I enjoy reading but the kind of stuff I read is mostly related to money and investments these days. Gone are the days when I would read a book of fiction every week.

A friend told me I have no life because I don't read the "Life" section of The Straits Times. Droll.

Anyway, just now, I read a story in Yahoo which evoked within me a mixed feeling of condemnation and sadness for the guilty party. Many times, things are not black or white although I would prefer for them to be so as it would make life easier.

This story has nothing to do with money and investments:

A 32-year-old female Singaporean teacher was sentenced to a year in jail on Monday for having sex with a 15-year-old boy in her school, local media reported.

The teacher, who was married with two children, started a relationship with the student last year after she started counselling him, the Straits Times daily reported on its website.

The teacher-student-monument in Rostock, Germany.

I think it is more common to read about male teachers in such cases or am I being sexist here?

After reading the story, my initial reaction was that the female teacher deserves the punishment. Pure and simple. Then, although I still think she should be punished, I feel a bit sad for her.

Under Singapore law, an adult found guilty of engaging sexual intercourse with anyone under the age of 16 -- even if it's consensual -- faces up to 10 years' imprisonment, a fine or both.

The boy is one year away from being legal. Could they not have been really in love?

Of course, there are other issues involved here such as how the teacher abused a position of power and trust. So, if the boy had been a JC student, the teacher could still have been dismissed by MOE but she would have been spared a jail sentence?

Once people are married, they are no longer fully their own person. They are only half a person. Whatever they do, they should think of the other half. If they have children, the responsibility becomes heavier as the children could be psychologically scarred for life through parents' thoughtless behaviour. So, I feel sad for her family too.

Then, I thought perhaps the boy's family could have thought about the teacher's situation and how they could have dealt with the issue differently. People do wrong sometimes. Perhaps, a private meeting with the teacher and a warning that she should stay away from their son would suffice?

Psychiatrists found "no predatory paedophilic tendencies" in the teacher. So, she is not a threat to the young in society at large. Of course, this fact only came to light because the case went to Court.

In a different time and age, could this have had a different outcome?

Read full story: here.

A blast from the past: Singapore blue chips or S-REITs?

I have been blogging for close to three years and looking back, I was a rather prolific blogger. Over the weekend, I read some of my older blog posts and found one which I have almost totally forgotten about.

Those were the days when S-REITs were largely unloved and shunned. Written in the first year of my blog's creation, to anyone who would listen, it was an effort to show that S-REITs could be great investments too.

Readers from my blog's early days might or might not remember this blog post but, I believe, all readers could benefit from the blog post as a reminder for us not to be bigots. It is a reminder to myself as well as I find that I have an increasing propensity to become mired in mental mud as I grow older. Feel the same way?

Then, you might want to read an ASSI forgotten classic:
Building and preserving our wealth: Singapore blue chips or S-REITs?

Three point turn!

This weekend, I am going to leave you with a very short blog post. Nothing original but sometimes, we need a few reminders, don't we?

Man is created in the image and likeness of God but there is nothing Godly about Man.

So, here are the three points which could turn our lives (for the better):

1.  We only need so much money in life. The rest is for showing off.

2.  Keep our needs simple and our wants few. We will have less money problems that way.

3.  Know what and who matter to us. Don't waste time and money on others.

True or not?





I hope we are all truly happier individuals over time. Have a good weekend, everybody.

"Every man is rich or poor according to the proportion between his desires and his enjoyments." (Samuel Johnson)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q 2013.

A DPU of 2.5c has been announced. The REIT goes XD on 2 Nov 2012 and the income distribution is payable on 20 Dec 2012.

Gearing is comfortable at 31.5%. This leaves ample debt headroom for further yield accretive initiatives.

The REIT now has a new source of funding via a $500m Medium Term Note Program. It issued a $100m 4 years 4.9% fixed rate notes due in August 2016. Being an unsecured facility, the cost of debt is dearer but if we should continue to see positive rental reversions, this is still acceptable.

Indeed, the REIT manager has not disappointed as they have been successful in renewing leases with higher weighted average rental with positive rental reversion of some 17.3%. They have also reduced concentration risk as the proportion of leases expiring by 2013 have reduced from 35.7% one year ago to 9.9%. Of course, it remains to be seen if they could secure positive rental reversions by renewing the 9.9% now remaining. Negotiations are in progress.

The management should also continue to work towards 100% occupancy although, at 99.2%, it is already above average for industrial properties in Singapore.

Average security deposit of 7.2 months per property provides a peace of mind.

In the papers, it is reported that distributable income reduced some 5.4% but on a quarter to quarter basis, the reduction is much lesser at 0.6%. So, I wouldn't be too worried.

Although gross property income improved some 3% quarter on quarter, NPI reduced 1.4% due to an increase of 13.9% in property operating expenses. This includes repair and maintenance of some properties which should be a one off expense. Having said this, the management should continue to be prudent in managing expenses.

See presentation slides: here.
See financial statement: here.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 1Q FY2013.

First REIT: 3Q 2012.

As the contribution from the divestment of its Adam Road property has run out, First REIT's DPU sees a reduction of 12.5%, quarter on quarter, from 1.92 to 1.68c.

Year on year, however, DPU has improved from 1.58c to 1.68c.

I would say that First REIT has produced sterling results yet again.

Income distribution is payable on 29 November 2012.

See financial statement: here.

Related post:
First REIT: 2Q 2012.

LMIR: More acquisitions and lesser DPU again.

The latest acquisitions of Pejaten Village and Binjai Supermall will further reduce DPU.

Of so many REITs I am vested in, LMIR is one which has constantly disappointed in more ways than one.

The management has listed the advantages of acquiring these malls and they sound like a rehash from their equally distasteful purchase of 4 malls recently:

1. Acquisitions are at a discount to NAV.
2. Enhance earnings of the Trust.
3. Properties are of good quality.
4. Increase economies of scale in operation and marketing.
5. Minimise concentration risk.

The price tag for the purchase of the two malls: $126.5m
NPI of the two malls: $7.0m
NPI yield: 5.53%

Just like its recent purchase of 4 malls, these acquisitions are not NPI yield accretive. NPI yield of the REIT's portfolio is being gradually diluted with these overpriced purchases.

It does not matter that purchases are at a discount to valuation. They are still too expensive if ordinary unit holders are getting less income even as the REIT's asset base grows! If there is nothing worth buying, don't buy anything. Doesn't sound too difficult or does it?

The primary beneficiary here is the REIT's manager as they will be paid an Acquisition Fee equal to 1% of the purchase price which works out to be about $1.3m!

I think Ms. Viven Sitiabudi should consider retiring as CEO.

Read announcement: here.

Related post:
LMIR: More benefits from acquiring 4 malls?

Dynasty REIT: At what price would I bite?

Recently, I received quite a few emails regarding Dynasty REIT.

With full page ads taken out in the newspapers, few could have missed the promise of an approximate 7% distribution yield. It seems that the REIT is generating quite a bit of interest in the current low interest rate environment.

I have not subscribed to any IPOs in many years, believing that they are on terms which are more in favour of the issuers. Of course, there are cases in which IPOs have done quite well because Mr. Market's sentiment towards them was favourable.

So, for people interested in IPOs, they should develop the ability to read Mr. Market's mind! Personally, I already have great difficulty reading Mr. Market's mind with the help of charts. Without any trading history (i.e. no charts), it is a tall order indeed for me to read Mr. Market's mind towards IPOs.

For example, some people were saying that the unit price of Religare Health Trust would probably do very well because the public tranche was 13.5x over subscribed. On the first day of trading, it tanked 10%. It is still trading below its IPO price today.

What about Dynasty REIT? Could its unit price tank 10% on the first day of trading too? Who knows? I have said before that as an investor for income, I am more concerned with the distribution yield and that any capital gain is a bonus. Of course, we want to avoid any loss of capital at the same time. How do we do this? Buy when things are inexpensive. So, is Dynasty REIT's IPO price inexpensive?

Shanghai International Capital Plaza:
29 floors office and retail building plus a basement.
Committed occupancy rate: 86.8%

The promised distribution yield of about 7% per annum is largely achieved through a waiver of entitlement to income distributions by sponsor units. Now, the sponsor is not being altruistic or generous. It has to do this in order to make the IPO attractive. Without the sponsor waiver, the distribution yield would approximate 4% only. A big difference.

Of course, there are many assumptions that could be made for a possibly higher income distribution over time which could make up for the loss of the sponsor waiver by December 2017. However, we would be counting the chickens before they are hatched and in this case, we are not even sure we have the eggs for counting.

This IPO is heavily engineered and, in my opinion, at 85c to 91c a unit, it is not a good value proposition. I could be interested in initiating a long position if its unit price were to be closer to 55c a unit.

You might also be interested in these blog posts:
1. Religare Health Trust: 8.5 to 9% yield.
2. Perennial China Retail Trust: A weak debut?

Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.

Sabana REIT reported a robust set of numbers, declaring a DPU of 2.34c. The counter will go XD on 24 Oct and income distribution is payable on 28 Nov.

Total assets under management: $1.1 bn

Occupancy rate: 99.9%

Average all-in financing cost: 4.3%

Weighted average tenor of debt: 3.5 years.

Interest cover ratio: 5.5x

NAV/unit: $1.03

Sabana REIT's higher income from a slew of acquisitions comes with financing cost increasing significantly as well. Gearing is now higher at 38.3%. However, this does not disturb me much as the net result is still positive for unit holders.

In my opinion, the weakness of Sabana REIT remains a high concentration of leases expiring in 2013.  At 47.4%, it has not changed from 3 months ago. My hope is for positive rental reversions which should lead to a higher DPU. I look forward to any growth in income without any significant increase in costs to the REIT.

At the closing price of $1.13 in the last session, the annualised distribution yield is 8.28%. In an environment of very low interest rates, this is still very attractive and a further compression of yield to 7.5% does not seem improbable. That would see unit price at about $1.25.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c

CapitaMalls Asia: Broke resistance.

I got into CapitaMalls Asia way too early. However, taking a cue from the weekly chart, continual buying means my current long position is in the black. Of course, I have collected some dividends in the meantime as well.

Of course, what I have done is by no means brilliant. Far from it. The brilliant thing to do is to buy only when share price has troughed and looks to be turning up. Another lesson for me.

Technically, CapitaMalls Asia's share price broke resistance at $1.70 and it remains to be seen if this could be resistance turned support. With all the MAs rising, it could indeed be the case although a dip to test the rising 50d MA for support would not be too far fetched. The 50d MA is currently at $1.66.

The rising OBV suggests continual accumulation by smart money in the last 12 months. If this reading is correct, we could see share price climbing a wall of worries in the next few months.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

Value for money holiday in Hong Kong.

The year end holidays are just round the corner. Wondering where to bring the family for a vacation this year? Why not Hong Kong? The flight does not take too long and Hong Kong has good food and attractions aplenty.

You might want to bring the kids to Hong Kong Disneyland as well to see Snowy Christmas Town.

 

Find out more at: Christmas Town.

Get a special 4D 3N Hong Kong package to make it a value for money holiday at the same time.

Check out the special offer by following the banner here:



Wanna see photos of my trip to Hong Kong last year? See them: here.