Hong Kong Disneyland - Grizzly Gulch!

Where to go during the upcoming school holidays?

Disneyland, where magical moments happen every day!

Hong Kong Disneyland is bringing in new exclusive theme lands to add to all the fun!

Grizzly Gulch - Wild wild west!

Grizzly Gulch is an upcoming theme land set to open at Hong Kong Disneyland, this will be a World Exclusive only for Hong Kong, so you won’t be able to find this in any other Disneyland around the world!

Toy Story Land

Remember the familiar phrase “To infinity & Beyond!” from Buzz Lightyear? Now you can experience the magic at The Asia Exclusive Toy Story Land which opened last November!

Bring out the child at heart and set sail to enjoy the new theme rides and just bask in Disneyland’s magic: Hong Kong Disneyland! 

Good deal:
4 Days 3 Nights Hong Kong at less than $400 per person. Find your Hong Kong Long Weekend Getaway at the best price with ZUJI.

Have conviction and make money?

It is impossible to see into the future. People who say that they can are like fortune tellers.

How much are their advice worth? How much would we pay fortune tellers to read our palms?

Whatever decisions we make are based on a whole gamut of factors. Then, we have certain expectations of how things would turn out after making such decisions.

The more thoroughly we could reason our feelings of conviction, the higher our chances of staying the course and, dare I say, that our decisions could deliver on our expectations.

Regular readers would probably get the feeling that for whatever has done well for me, I have been reasonably rigorous in my reasoning for those decisions (e.g. to be invested in industrial S-REITs in the last 3 years).

Every person, I believe, has flaws. I have a whole bagful of flaws. One flaw I have when it comes to investment is that I tend to be more careless when I do not have a feeling of crisis.

To have conviction is good but it has to be well reasoned. If I am unable to reason well my conviction, there shouldn't be any conviction.

Remember, however, that conviction is only part of the equation. Luck plays a big part in whether things turn out the way we expect them to.

I was reading The Business Times (weekend edition) and came across an interview with Isaac Souede, the chairman and CEO of Permal, one of the world's largest hedge funds groups.

He is reasonably bullish on China and is exposed to Asian equity through China, "which is seen as pivotal to Asia's fortune."

"If I'm wrong and China has a hard landing, all of Asia won't grow... Most countries in Asia (except India) are in the glide path of a pro-growth policy... which is very positive for equities. But the harbinger of all that is China...

"If Europe stays on a glide path of zero growth for the next five years, US and China will be fine... As long as Europe doesn't become cataclysmic and create a financial issue, then it can be at least cauterised. Europe is a very long term, trial and error solution. The key is for the US and China not to implode."

His conviction is strong and he has his reasons. However, so many things are not within his control. So, a good dose of luck is needed to deliver on his expectations.

Making money needs more than well reasoned convictions but well reasoned convictions should be part of the money making process.

Related posts:
1. Excuse me, are you an investor?
2. How did AK71 overcome his losses?

Millionaires usually emerge from bear markets richer.

On 9 July, I wrote a piece on how fear of a collapse of the eurozone must be so strong that investors are paying Germany to borrow money from them.

Today, I read in The Business Times that "Millionaires added US stocks more than any other asset in the latest year as average investors fled to bonds, according to a survey by Fidelity Investments."

The survey involved 1,020 households with at least US$1 million in investable assets, excluding retirement savings and property, for the 12 months ended March 2012:

20% bought individual domestic equities.
13% added to the cash positions.
11% bought into ETFs.
10% added to bonds or stock funds.

Average age of respondents: 61 years old.
Average investable assets: US$ 3.05 million per respondent.

"They're probably ahead of the average investor in how they view opportunities," Bob Oros, EVP in Fidelity's wealth services group, said of millionaires. "They're becoming less and less risk averse."

Millionaires' outlook for the future of the economy was the most positive it has been since the annual study started in 2006.

We know that millionaires usually emerge from a bear market even richer than before. Now, do we know why?

Related posts:
1. Borrow money and be paid to do so.
2. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?
3. Should we be staying invested or in cash?

Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c.

When people asked me whether they should invest in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT or Sabana REIT recently, I asked them what are they after? If they are after a higher yield in the immediate future, Sabana REIT is the obvious choice.

Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.27c, just 0.01c higher than in the last quarter. Annualised, this gives us 9.08c. Buying units of the REIT at $1.00 a piece would give us a distribution yield of 9.08%. Sabana REIT is probably the only one in the S-REIT universe now that is offering a distribution yield in excess of 9%.

Gearing: 34.1%

NAV/unit: $1.04

Interest cover ratio: 5.6x

Occupancy: 98.4% to 100%.
(Total occupancy rate: 99.9%)

Remaining land leases (average): 39.7 years.

The REIT's management should be working on leases expiring in 2013 soon, if they have not started already. Given that 47.4% (down from 49.4% in January 2012) of leases expire in 2013, this is a top priority, in my opinion. Hopefully, we would then see positive rental reversions which would, in turn, improve DPUs.

They have signed a new 10+5 year master lease for 1 Tuas Avenue 4 which would now expire on 31 March 2022. I would like to see more of such effort to reduce lease expiry concentration in 2013 and, to a certain extent, 2015.

In the meantime, the REIT could probably make another two or three acquisitions if it gears up to 40%. This would be the fastest way to improve DPU.

The REIT will go XD on 25 July and its income distribution is payable on 29 August.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 1Q FY2013.

DPU is 2.5c, 0.2c lower than in the last quarter. This is within expectation. Some might remember when a reader was elated that the REIT was paying 0.1c more in DPU per quarter culminating in 2.7c in the last quarter, I mentioned that it would probably not be repeated in this quarter.

The REIT will go XD on 31 July and income distribution is payable on 18 September.  With unit price at $1.30 or so, we are looking at a distribution yield of 7.69%, annualising the 2.5c DPU for the quarter (representing 97.7% of its income available for distribution). However, we are likely to see income improving towards year end and the REIT is likely to pay out all of its income available for distribution in Q4. So, the distribution yield for the whole year could be a bit higher, everything else remaining constant.

NAV/unit: S$1.40

Gearing: 29.7%

Interest coverage ratio: 6.0x

Occupancy: 99.1%

Weighted land lease expiry: 41.8 years

Average security deposit: 7.2 months

The management is actively managing the REIT's lease expiry risk and has made good progress since the last quarterly report. If it continues with the positive momentum, we could see more positive rental reversions and this could be DPU accretive.

Of the REIT's total debt of $279.4m, $113.6m is maturing in October 2013. I would like to see the REIT's manager getting this out of the way with a longer 5 years term loan instead of the usual 3 years. Of course, it makes sense to do so as it locks in a lower cost of capital in the current low interest rate environment. It will bolster investor confidence in the REIT.

For anyone investing for income and thinking to continue doing so for another few years at least, the REIT's DPU is likely to increase some 15% by end of 2013. This is very attractive and probably explains why the REIT's unit price has been on a steady climb upwards in recent weeks.

People ask if they should sell now and buy lower at a later date. People also ask me if they should buy now anyway as price could continue to go higher with expectations of a higher DPU in the coming quarters.

Answer:
I would not tell you what to do (surprise, surprise). I would share with you what I am doing: nothing. What investment I have in the REIT now is part of a core portfolio for income. Whatever I bought to trade for capital gains, I have already sold. If the REIT's unit price should weaken significantly, I would buy again. If its unit price should strengthen more significantly as to compress distribution yield by much more, then, I would consider further divestment. Now, I am keeping the status quo.

See presentation slides: here.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2012.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

Tea with AK71: Soup Restaurant's S-Card.

Yeah! After weeks of waiting, I have received my S-Card from Soup Restaurant.

Some might remember that before I was a shareholder of Soup Restaurant, I blogged about how I chose to invest in Old Chang Kee instead of Soup Restaurant. That decision has turned out quite well.

Not too long ago, I explained my more recent decision to invest in Soup Restaurant. Well, it remains to be seen if my decision would bear fruit.

In the meantime, I will enjoy a discount off my bills on my periodic visits to Soup Restaurant's outlets. Yummy!

Related posts:
1. Old Chang Kee: Initiated a long position at 26c.
2. Soup Restaurant: Gain of $7.7m.

Win $50 watching TV!

Tired of watching the same old programs on TV?

Wanna watch your favourite online influencers do something that is out of the whack? Or just wanna see how reelity.tv can bring Singapore humour to another level?

Stand a chance to win $50 when you watch Reelity.tv today: Reelity.tv!

K-Green Trust: DPU of 3.13c.

I am still holding on to a small investment in K-Green Trust. I will be getting some money for the 5th time in the form of income distribution soon.

The Trust distributes income half yearly and a payout of 3.13c has been declared. Date payable: 16 August 2012.

Mr Thomas Pang, CEO of Keppel Infrastructure Fund Management Pte Ltd, the Trustee-Manager of K-Green Trust, said, "K-Green Trust continues to perform well in this period and remains committed to deliver stable, predictable and reliable distributions to the Unitholders."

Well, stable distributions are nice but what I am more interested is in seeing the Trust gear up to deliver growing distributions to Unitholders.

See announcement: here.

Related post:
1. K-Green Trust: Results for year ended Dec 2010.

Win a new iPad, iPod and $100 Dining Vouchers!

XinWang Hong Kong Café is launching their very own game to thank fans for their love and support over the years.

The puzzle game introduces 10 Signature Dishes to be completed within a certain time limit.

Play the game and you could be a winner!

Play now: XinWang Game.

Help raise funds for the Singapore Eczema Fund.

Do you know of anyone suffering from skin conditions (i.e eczema, psoriasis…) and constantly have to bear with the irritating itch? Or do you know of anyone suffering from joint conditions (i.e. osteo-arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis…), where they constantly feel the pain as they move around?

OLIVA forte™ is a unique, natural health supplement containing HIDROX® a standardized freeze dried blend of organic olive juice patented by CreAgri. HIDROX® is the only patented formulation which retains hydroxytyrosol and many natural olive polyphenols present in the natural environment of olive juice, ensuring maximum absorbency of hydroxytyrosol by the body.

Taking OLIVA forte™ promotes cardiovascular wellness and skin health, maintains healthy joint functions and strengthens the immune system.

OLIVA forte™ is raising funds for Singapore Eczema Fund which helps the low income with their eczema treatment. 20% of total sales proceeds from the sale of OLIVA forte™ essence trial pack (30 capsules@ S$25 (40% discount)) will be donated to the eczema fund.

Find out more at: OLIVA forte™.

Fraud: Advice from a fraudster (Updated).

UPDATE:
Two videos on common types of scams and how to avoid being the next victim.


--------------------------------------
Often, we hear the saying that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. However, could we be missing out on something good if we simply tell ourselves this each time there is a deal which looks too good to be true?

So, how do we tell if something is a genuinely good deal or if it is a well disguised pit. For sure, it is not easy. Even very savvy people have been victims of con jobs because if a con artist is a professional, he could have almost all the grounds covered. I say "almost" because the most elaborate of con jobs would still have loopholes.

How do we discover loopholes, if any? Who better to learn from than a professional con artist?

I read this in the weekend edition of The Business Times, 30 June - 1 July 2012:

"I am a proven liar. Don't believe anything I say," said Samuel Israel. He is the hedge fund manager convicted of running a US$450million Ponzi scheme who faked his own suicide in 2008 to avoid his prison sentence before turning himself in after a worldwide manhunt.

When asked what can an investor do to avoid being conned, he said, "Seek as much transparency as possible. If they do not understand exactly how a manager is making money, do not invest. If there is a secret process that cannot be explained, run."

Investors are sometimes too busy looking for profits to notice where the truth ends and the deception begins.

Related post:
Fraud: Like taking candy from a baby.

Yongnam: Worried about warrants?

Yongnam has been doing very well in recent years. Its management also shows a commitment in sharing the fruits of its achievements with shareholders as it paid steadily higher dividends in the last four years.

Yongnam's order book remains robust although its Q1 revenue and profit declined due to delays in starting up of a couple of projects. Is this why its share price has been languishing? Does Mr. Market expect Yongnam to underperform from this year on?

Well, to be fair, the broader market has been languishing too. It remains to be seen whether the 3,000 points pyschological resistance on the STI could be overcome.

With Yongnam, I am not so worried about its fundamentals. In fact, I expect the company to win more contracts as regional governments spend more on infrastructure projects. This will generate steady revenue for the company. With increasing contribution from its specialised civil engineering arm, profits are likely to improve at a steady clip.

What could be holding back its share price is its outstanding warrants. Warrants? Yes, the company had a 3 for 10 warrants issue in 2007. 3 for 10 is quite a big proportion. If all the warrants were exercised, we could see a 23% dilution in EPS. Then, its shares would look more expensive.

So, the question is whether Yongnam is able to make use of the funds productively to improve its EPS proportionally or more to negate any dilution concerns. This is something that no amount of foresight would be able to throw light on. So, a cautious Mr. Market is understandable.

Now, I would like to suggest that it is possible that holders of the warrants might not exercise the warrants. Reason? The exercise price is 25c a piece. With Yongnam's share price at 23.5c at the last closing, these holders could be better off allowing the warrants to expire and buying more shares of the company in the open market if they wanted to add to their long positions.

Also, if I remember correctly, the warrants were not free. They were sold at 3c a piece. So, the full price of a warrant turned share is actually 28c for the original warrant holders.

There are rather bullish 12 months target prices for Yongnam's shares by various research houses from 30c or so upwards. Unless Yongnam's share price is able go past 25c a piece, the exercise price of its warrants, I doubt holders would exercise their warrants and worries of dilution would evaporate, therefore.

The warrants expire 14 Dec 2012. That is only five months away. I guess I can only wait and see.

Related posts:
1. Yongnam: 3 new contracts worth $63.8m
2. Yongnam: FY2011 results.

Yongnam: 3 new contracts worth $63.8m.

Yongnam announced that it won 3 new contracts worth $63.8m. This will add to the company's current order book of $469m, making it $532.8m. These new wins are expected to have a positive effect on the company's numbers for 2012. Yongnam is a leader in its field and expectations are for more contract wins in the coming months.

Yongnam's net profit for 1Q 2012 came in lower compared to 1Q 2011 because of delays in projects starting up in 1Q 2012. 2011 was also a very strong year due to completion of higher margin projects. An improvement in 2H 2012 is expected, however. 

"Nonetheless, we continue to win notable projects both in Singapore and overseas. As at March 31, 2012, our order books stood at a healthy S$469 million. We remain cautiously optimistic that the Group will perform reasonably well in FY2012 in view of a strong pipeline of projects that we are bidding for and the two delayed projects ramping up in the second half of the year." Seow Soon Yong, CEO

Gross profit margin: 29.3%
Net gearing: Lower at 0.28x
NAV/share: 24.13c
EPS: 0.91c

If we were to annualise the weaker quarterly EPS of 0.91c, we will get 3.64c. This would give us a PER of 6.45x with a share price of 23.5c.

Read announcement: here.
See 1Q 2012 results: here.

Tea with AK71: Lipton, Twinings, TWG et al.

I think we would not have missed much if we stayed away from the stock market the last few days. So, we might as well take it easy and have a cup of tea once in a while. My usual is a cup of Lipton tea which is inexpensive and quite good, I feel.

I had Twinings before which is supposedly more atas. Is it really?

Then, when a friend from Hong Kong came to visit, he went into this very atas looking tea drinking place, TWG, in ION Orchard. He was looking to buy some TWG tea because they were not available in Hong Kong. He and his wife bought some in Canada and enjoyed it. I looked at the prices and anyone looking at me then might have wondered whether to call an ambulance. Super expensive!

What inspired this blog post? I recently ordered some supplements and was given a packet of very atas looking tea. It is St. Dalfour Classic Breakfast Tea. It is organic tea from Ceylon and blended in St. Dalfour, France. Wah! If it doesn't sound atas to you, you must be drinking more atas tea than this. Please help to educate me.

Note for non-Singlish speakers: The word "atas" in Singlish means "high class".

Borrow money and be paid to do so!

No, there is no typo in the title of this blog post. Yes, you read it correctly!

So, where can we go to borrow some money and be paid to do so? Who are the people lending us money and paying us for it? Maxi-Cash?

Nope, not Maxi-Cash. What I am describing is happening in Germany and, unfortunately, the option is not open to us. So, it would remain a dream.

Hey, day dreaming is actually good for health, you know?

BERLIN: Investors paid to lend Germany money for six months at an auction on Monday, the country's central bank said, as they flocked to the safe haven of Europe's top economy.

The yield or rate on the auction of six-month debt was a record low -0.03 percent, the Bundesbank, which organised the auction, said in a statement.

Source: CNA, 9 July 2012.
Read the full story: here.

In ASSI, we talk of growing our wealth and beating inflation. We also say that if we want to protect our wealth, we have to take risk. So, to find investors parking billions of Euros in bonds with a negative yield is simply mind boggling! For these investors, they cannot even talk about how the interest they receive is not keeping up with inflation. Upon maturity, they would get back a smaller amount! (Keeping my money at home would at least ensure that the nominal value stays the same, wouldn't it? I think I am missing something here.)

Some would argue that these investors are paying the borrower to keep their money safe. Now, I am going to say something which you might find enlightening (or not): Keeping our money safe is not the same as keeping our wealth safe.

Related posts:
1. Grow your wealth and beat inflation.
2. To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.