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Buying a property: Affordability and Value For Money.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Following my blog post on considerations in buying a property for first timers, a reader mentioned how it is all about location and that if we can afford it, always buy a property in a better location.

"You may baulk at the high price for properties in a good locations. But if you have the budget, go for good locations because when you sell in future, you can also sell for a good price. If you buy a property because it is cheap, it is likely to be poorly located with little amenities and poor connectively. When you sell in future, potential buyer may also "hiam" the place.

"Always buy where there are future potential development (for examples, Paya Lebar, Jurong East and Woodlands have been designated as regional centres under the Masterplan)."


Of course, I think that location is important too. 

However, to me, it is never about "affordability", it is always about "value for money".





"Value for money" is a concept that is location neutral when it comes to real estate. 

It can be quite subjective, for sure, but there is also a high degree of objectivity. 

So, when we have a discussion on this, it is important to stay clear minded about what we are talking about.


Example 1:

If someone had bought a resale 5 room flat in a mature estate for, say, almost $800,000 because he liked the location for some reason while a sale of balance flats exercise could yield a 5 room flat in a non-mature estate which could be had for half the price, should we say that he was not getting value for money?

Well, for some of us, it could be really hard to rationalise away the extra $400,000 that had been paid for convenience and familiarity, perhaps. 





However, to the buyer, the location could be priceless. 

Whenever there is a strong emotive element, objectivity is suppressed. 

Don't discuss because it could disgust.





Example 2:

If someone had bought a BTO 2 room flat in a mature estate for a quarter of a million dollars instead of a BTO 4 room flat in a non-mature estate for the same amount of money with an eye on becoming a landlord, would the better location in a mature estate help? 

With the BTO 2 room flat, he could not rent it out until 5 years later while with the BTO 4 room flat, he could rent out 2 rooms and immediately, it would be cash flow positive. 





Of course, we are talking about doing things legally here.

However, if the thought that the BTO 2 room flat in question could appreciate by much more in price and was, hence, a better buy, then, we would have entered the realms of speculation. 

Don't discuss because no one is the wiser.






Example 3:

If person A had bought a condominium that was a 2 minutes walk from a MRT station at $1,700 per square foot, would he be better off than person B who had bought a condominium of a similar size that was a 15 minutes walk from the same MRT station at $1,200 per square foot? 

Assuming a floor area of 500 square feet, we would be looking at a cool $250,000 difference in price. 





Was the proximity to the MRT station worth that much?

If person A decided to rent out the condominium at $3,000 a month, person B could ask for $2,400 and would still end up with a higher rental yield, everything else remaining equal. 

For a monthly savings of $600 (or $7,200 a year), potential tenants could be more than willing to take a stroll to the MRT station and this is a realistic scenario especially when smaller apartments are more likely to appeal to younger renters.





Example 4:

If someone had found a condominium in a good location but it was asking for a significant (say 15%) premium to the latest transacted prices of surrounding properties (and a 15% premium is pretty normal with new launches most of the time), how would that provide value for money? 

Now, if someone had found a condominium in a not as good location but it was offering a nice discount (say 15%) to the latest transacted prices of surrounding properties, wouldn't that be a value buy?


Think a property in a less convenient location is harder to rent out? Try lowering the rental. 

If there was a comfortable margin of safety in the purchase price of the property, there would be plenty of room to lower prices and it would still give a satisfactory result.





Something I like to remember all the time (but sometimes forget):

"Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results." Warren Buffett.





And I said this on my FB wall:

"I would like to play the Devil's Advocate here. A rising tide lifts all boats. I know friends who bought properties in not so good location who saw their properties' values going up by 100% too in the last few years. My properties which were in more prime locations also went up by 100% up to the point I sold 2 years ago.

"I believe that keeping an eye on value is more important and that location is, often, a reason bandied around by vested interests to push up prices. If we could buy an undervalued property in a less prime location, from a value for money perspective, why would we want to buy a property that has priced in future value?

"I am not an expert on property investments. I have just used some old concepts about price and value for money here."



Buying a piece of real estate anywhere is a big commitment and the decision making process is complex although making a decision is easy. 

Considering whether a piece of property is "value for money" should be a part of the decision making process although it is not the only consideration.





However, if all else have been taken into consideration, we should remember that it is not about "affordability", it should always be about "value for money".

Note: All examples provided in this blog post are real life examples that I know of.




Related posts:
1. Buying an apartment: Considerations.
2. Buying a property as an owner-occupier?

My travel blog:
Value for money in a box of Mikans?

Yummy Yum Yum (60c) breakfast!

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

This is another way we can have the spring onion pancake I blogged about not too long ago:

Frozen pancake in a frying pan.

Flipped!


Flipped again and include a slice of low fat cheese.

Fold it like a burrito.


I spent too much time taking photos. Messy but super yummy!

If AK can cook, so can you!

Related post:
Yummy Yum Yum ($1.10) lunch.

What is our attitude towards having children? 钱最重要的!

Monday, May 12, 2014

UPDATE:
Force your children to become your financial assets! 


Force them to give you a monthly allowance when they start working if they don't do it!




Listen to the Chinese aunty:


"钱是最重要的!"

This is a big difference from what the aunty at the end of the video said about emotional support being more important and that "money isn't everything". 

I so stunned like vegetable.
------------------------



Being single, I get asked "When are you getting married?" quite a bit. 

Of course, for couples who are married, the next question which gets asked is usually "When are you going to have a baby?"


Now, I have blogged about weddings and marriage before. Twice, in fact. 

In both instances, they received an overwhelming number of comments. 

So, I know it is a very sensitive topic and, maybe, I should avoid blogging about it in future.

I have also blogged about how it is important to involve children in financial issues and how achieving financial freedom should be a family affair. 

Now, this topic was very well received. 

Not as explosive and it is something I should consider blogging more of in future, perhaps.





However, I have never blogged about how some people think that children are assets which they can depend on in their old age or have I? 

Well, I don't remember.

When a reader told me on FB that one of his friends, who is given to admonishing him for being single and for giving in too easily to his wanderlust, told him that kids will, in future, be a source of monthly allowance, paid holidays and free medical care, for examples, my jaw dropped (and for readers who follow me on FB, you know which emoticon I would use).




I always say that kids are very expensive to bring up in Singapore. 

An estimate which I did almost 20 years ago showed me that it would cost some $250,000 per child from birth to graduation day at a local university. 

I am sure that this figure is much higher today.



Now, I have said before that a wedding is a consumption item. 

Expensive photo shoots, bridal gown, diamond ring, honeymoon, apartment, furniture, electronics and renovation are all consumption items. 

Expensive wedding banquet is a consumption item. So, if we cannot afford all these, then, scale back or, indeed, delay gratification. Have the wedding at a later date. 

In fact, ask whether a wedding is necessary at all.




Of course, some might say that we could make money from the red packets at the wedding banquet. 

Now, that is bringing a speculative element into a wedding and I don't think we should even go there. 

I mean if we have to even think about how we have to depend on money we get in red packets to pay for wedding expenses, we must be really scraping the bottom of the bin.

Anyway, before my head gets chopped off, I should move on to talk about children.

I always say that marriage is to give children legitimacy. Our modern day society requires this. It cannot be avoided. 

If two adults love each other but do not wish to have children, they don't need to get married. 

That marriage certificate is just a piece of paper. 

Love each other forever and stay together.




OK, in Singapore, we have this consideration called a HDB flat. 

So, if a couple want to buy a BTO HDB flat, they must be married. 

Well, there is always the option of buying a resale HDB flat if both are 35 years or older, right? 

Yikes! Who threw a shoe at me? 

OK, ok, I get the hint.


Coming back to the topic of children. 

Now that we agree that a wedding is a consumption item, what about children? 

They spend so much money! 

They must be consumption items! 




Talk to parents and you will hear them telling you how much money they spend on their children.

Scary stuff, children.



Of course, if we think that children will take care of us in our old age, will give us pocket money, will bring us on paid holidays and will pay for our hospital visits, for examples, then, children could be an investment for our golden years. 

Yes, children could be investments too!

Now, we are in a fix. 

Consumption or investment?

Well, I think that this falls in the realm of speculation. 

Children might grow up to be very accomplished and filial or they might not. 

There is no guarantee that the "investment" would turn out the way we want it.





So, I feel that it is only prudent that people who want to have children treat them as consumption items. 

Think of spending money on children like we would spend money on a hobby or a household pet. 

They will provide enjoyment, I hope, anyway, but unlike a hobby, we cannot give up on them and unlike a household pet, children have far longer lifespans, I assume. 

As with all consumption items, we do not expect any financial rewards.


Well, some readers told me that I should think of my CPF savings as a bonus if I should see the money in my old age because the government could change the rules again. I feel that couples who think of children as "investments" should adopt this mind-set towards their CPF savings and their children. Don't you think so?




Frankly, to think that children are assets we can rely upon financially in our old age, we could be setting ourselves up for disappointment.


If I had a choice, my bet is on my CPF savings.

Related posts:
1. Financially prepared to be married?
2. Not enough money to be married.
3. Financial Freedom is a family affair.
4. Warren Buffett Illustrated.
5. Little Book that Beats the Market.
"It is written for the non-financial professional, but all could learn from this simple, but powerful concept."

Fire up your Sunday with SAO and Log Horizon!

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Sharing some music from a couple of really fantastic anime I watched recently!

Sword Art Online (SAO)


(Unfortunately, Log Horizon's soundtrack was removed.)

Hope you like them as much as I do. Enjoy your Sunday!

More music:
1. Fairy Tail.
2. Hunter X Hunter 2011.
3. Full Metal Alchemist.
4. Groove Adventure Rave.

Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

At the end of last year, I shared the results of my efforts in the stock market and also my strategy to grow wealth and augment income in the new year. Quite a few things have happened since then. So, I decided to do a review of how things have moved.

In the S-REITs department, the biggest change this year to my portfolio has to be the major divestment in Sabana REIT. My current long position in the REIT is just a bit more than 10% of my investment at its largest. Whatever I have left is free of cost and will continue to generate passive income although on a much smaller scale.


Also in the S-REITs department, I took part in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's rights issue and tried to get more excess rights but without much success. Recently, I sold a small percentage of my investment, believing that it was the right thing to do as its unit price ran up, post rights. This REIT is still my largest investment in S-REITs. Having said this, passive income received from this REIT will shrink some 15% this year, given the dilution from the recent rights issue.

In the Business Trusts department, I decided to divest completely my investment in Perennial China Retail Trust after receiving another round of income distribution which I concluded was unsustainable. This was before the takeover offer by St. James.

Also in the Business Trusts department, in late January, I more than doubled my investment in Croesus Retail Trust, believing that, trading at a discount to valuation and offering an attractive income distribution, it is a more dependable passive income generator than Perennial China Retail Trust. Although its relatively high level of gearing is a concern for some, there is unlikely to be any nasty surprises in the area of financing over the next few years.


In other stocks, I added to my long positions in Yongnam and Hock Lian Seng. Yongnam hit a rough patch, as expected. However, things are likely to improve later this year and probably the next. It is a leader in what it does and it has a very good track record. Last year's performance was exceptionally bad and probably would not be repeated. I like how Yongnam started to pay meaningful dividends in recent years and this is likely to continue, conditions permitting.

Hock Lian Seng, like Yongnam, is in the construction sector and also like Yongnam, I expect it to be a beneficiary of increased spending on infrastructure projects in the country. Already, Hock Lian Seng won two major projects which have bumped up its order book and will provide earnings visibility for some time to come. There will probably be more order wins in future. Of course, Hock Lian Seng also pays meaningful dividends which I like.

One stock which I have been waiting for an opportunity to accumulate was CapitaMalls Asia. Well, it is a pity that it will be taken private by its parent, CapitaLand, which offered $2.22 a share. I feel that it is a fair enough price which, perhaps, suggests that the price at IPO was unfair but I will let readers draw their own conclusions in this contentious issue. My acceptance form has been sent out.


A stock which I have turned more cautious on is Marco Polo Marine. Recent developments mean that the business is now somewhat different from what I envisioned it to be in my initial investment thesis. Not giving enough consideration to how the tugs and barges could be a drag on overall performance before, I decided to trim my exposure to the stock. Things could improve in future but, for now, the level of clarity has lowered.

The first few months of the year have turned out to be a bit more eventful than expected on the investment front. My war chest is now fuller through some divestments as well as dividends received. I do not have any immediate plans for the funds and I will probably just hold on to them for now. After all, I had felt that I was too much invested in the stock market and had desired a bigger cash position.

Of course, if I were to keep the status quo, I will, for sure, receive a much lower level of income from my investments in S-REITs this year. How much lower? I guess we will know by end of the year.


Having said this, my decision to increase my level of investment in SPH and NeraTel last year so that my overall portfolio is less reliant on S-REITs for passive income was pre-emptive. Enlarging investments in Hock Lian Seng and Croesus Retail Trust earlier this year has also helped to reduce reliance on S-REITs for passive income.

What next? I certainly do not know if the economy will do well or if it would suffer a decline in the next few years. However, I do know that I am staying invested as long as my investments have reasonably sturdy fundamentals and, preferably, are able to generate reasonably good income for me. They don't have to be stellar performers and I don't have a problem with getting rich slowly.

I will simply wait for Mr. Market to feel depressed enough to sell more to me at prices I cannot refuse while I collect regular dividends in the meantime.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014 DPU 1.88c.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: $1.425.
4. Perennial China Retail Trust: Fully divested.
5. Croesus Retail Trust: DPU above forecast.
6. Yongnam: DPS of 0.6c.
7. Hock Lian Seng: $221.8 million contract.
8. CapitaMalls Asia: Farewell.
9. Marco Polo Marine: Price weakness.
10. SPH: Within expectations.
11. NeraTel: A very good investment.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2014.

Friday, May 9, 2014

Without the recent rights issue, DPU would have been 2.95c. A dilution of 15%, post rights, and we have DPU at 2.51c.

I estimated that we could see an annualised distribution yield of some 9.26% based on the price of $1.08 per rights unit. At 2.51c, we have a distribution yield of almost 9.3% per rights unit. This beats my estimate.

However, we have to bear in mind that the REIT usually distributes more income in the final quarter of the year. So, everything remaining equal, DPU could dip in the next quarter.


Of course, things are not going to remain the same because:

1. The REIT's investment in Optus Centre will see its first full quarter contribution in 1Q FY2015. This will help to bump up income.

2. The redevelopment of 103 Defu Lane 10 will get its TOP in May 2014. So, expect income contribution to start sometime in 2Q FY2015.

3. We have to watch out for the increase in vacant space as two Master Leases expired in April 2014. Only 73.3% of the space in these two properties have seen leases renewed.

NAV/unit: $1.47

Gearing: 31.7%

Interest Cover: 5.2x

Based on a unit price of $1.42 and assuming an annualised DPU of 10c, we are looking at a distribution yield of 7.04% per annum. Although I expect a slight upward bias in income distribution in the next 6 months, I do not find the prospective distribution yield attractive enough to add to my long position at the current unit price. Why?

Two reasons:

1. An increasingly challenging situation with the supply of more industrial space which is outpacing growth in demand.

2. The prospect of higher interest rates (risk free rates) possibly from the middle of 2015. The REIT has $111.2 million worth of loans due in October 2015 and $175.8 million due in 2H 2016.

For anyone who is investing for income and thinking of putting down some money in this REIT now, he has to wonder if he is comfortable with the prospects and how things might turn out in the next 12 to 24 months.

See presentation slides: here.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights' value.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: $1.425.

Tea with Kenji FX: Wealth destruction!

Thursday, May 8, 2014

If we want to be wealthier, we must learn to create wealth. Unfortunately, many indulge in wealth destruction and Kenji FX tells us some of the things to avoid:


Bad:

1. Smoking.

2. Beer drinking.
3. Sponsor clubbers.
4. Cafe hopping.
5. Going after girls who will never be yours and from a different world from you.
6. Car modifications.
7. Credit card signing.

Worse:

1. Gambling, under or above table.
2. Liquor drinking.
3. Drugs.
4. Prostitution, infected with STD with medication fee.
5. Impregnate people's daughters.
6. Keep a mistress (whether you can afford it or not, as stated above).
7. Loan shark (Jaws).

Worst:

1. Putting yourself in a position where you have everything to lose, and when you cannot afford to lose and yet believe Lady Luck would be smiling on you because you are more than a mere mortal.


Wealth destruction could become a habit. Be careful.

Whether you sniff it, smoke it, eat it or shove it up your ass, the result is the same: addiction.”
William S Burroughs.

It is far better to avoid trouble than to try and get out of trouble.


Money is hard to make and we should make it hard to lose.

Related post:

Be A Millionaire Next Door.

"If we are not careful, it is easy to get into debt."AND
"It might be really hard to get out of debt."

From: The secret to avoiding financial ruin.

Concentrate or diversify?

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Sharing an email exchange here:

Hi AK,

 
I am a retail investor who has been investing for some time, and I've also been a long time reader of your blog. Before I go on any further, I would like to thank you for your blog as it has provided many people with valuable insights on investing and personal finance. Your contribution to the investment community is immense, I sincerely hope that you continue blogging!
 
I have a question regarding diversification vs concentration. While I am aware of the benefits of both strategy, I'd like to hear your view on this topic. Very often, I find myself identifying several undervalued companies. However, instead of buying all of them, I try to narrow it down to 1 or 2 high conviction stocks. As such, my portfolio tends to be extremely concentrated. I take into account factors such as the potential upside, catalyst, expected holding period, circle of competence etc.

While my investment record is satisfactory, I have missed many opportunities (mainly because it is impossible to predict when prices will rise) when I did not buy the other undervalued stocks.

Diversification will solve that problem. However, I might risk missing out on huge gains from my high conviction ideas just because I don't want to lose out on the others when prices rise. I hope to find an investment philosophy that would help me reconcile these two strategies and would love to hear your views on this. Thank you.

Regards,
WJ
 
 
My reply:

Hi WJ,

From your email, I get the impression that you prefer a concentration strategy. You have, however, rightly pointed out one of the weaknesses of such a strategy, especially if our funds are limited.

There is a simple solution to the problem you have. Do a lesser form of concentration. What is this?

Let us say you had identified 10 stocks which met your criteria, instead of selecting 2 stocks to put all your money into, put 50% of your money into these 2 stocks. The other 8 stocks get the rest of your money.

You could argue that this is diversification but diversification to me is 10% of your money in each of the 10 stocks. OK, if you like, my suggestion is an adulterated form of diversification. A rose by any other name smells just as sweet. ;p

Best wishes,
AK

Related posts:
1. Excuse me? Are you an investor?
2.  Luck plays a part in investing.
3. The Little Book That Beats The Market.
4. Approach to stock selection.
5. Value investing.


Marco Polo Marine: Reason for price weakness.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Yesterday, a couple of readers asked me what could be wrong with Marco Polo Marine since the share price declined. A reader also asked me where the next support could be, using technical analysis. Last night, I checked if there were any announcements from the company and found a plausible reason for the recent weakness in share price.

We know that Marco Polo Marine has an Indonesian subsidiary, PT Pelayaran National Bina Buana Raya (BBR). Well, the subsidiary has released 1Q 2014 results and the numbers are very bad. Of course, BBR is not all of Marco Polo Marine's business but it is a significant part. So, I would expect Marco Polo Marine's own quarterly results to be affected. How badly affected would depend on how other business segments perform, of course.


Now, the BBR story:

Over at BBR, revenue reduced by 11% while direct expenses increased almost 20%.

The OSV segment of the business did well as revenue improved some 57.3%. However, Tug and Barge vessels segment of the business saw a reduction in revenue by some 47.5%. (The two segments put together, OSV segment now has a 61.5% share of total revenue.)

OSVs are clearly profitable while Tug and Barge vessels are not. Why? OSVs recorded $4.8 million in revenue and incurred expenses of $2.1 million. However, Tug and Barge vessels recorded $3.18 million in revenue but incurred expenses of $4.37 million! This segment bled massively!

In the same quarter in the preceding year, the Tug and Barge vessels segment of the business turned in a revenue of $5.84 million and incurred expenses of $3.95 million. This suggests to me that the expenses incurred by this segment has been quite consistent but the revenue drop, year on year, is astounding!

If this were to continue, BBR would be better off without the Tug and Barge vessels segment of the business. Gross profit declined a massive 62.5%. Operating income declined by 73.5%. After financial charges and income tax, total comprehensive income reduced by 92.1% for the quarter, year on year!


How does this affect my investment thesis?

With the decision to gear up significantly to purchase a jack up rig which could potentially double earnings in FY2016, I was prepared to accept lower earnings in the next two years because of the much higher finance costs resulting from the MTNs although I have to admit that the jack up rig was never a part of my initial investment thesis for Marco Polo Marine.

With the jack up rig and higher finance cost thrown in for the next couple of years, I rationalised that as long as operating income improves steadily over time with more OSVs being added in the same period of time, logically, any decline in earnings due to the higher finance costs could be cushioned. This was an important assumption.

I said that to stay invested in Marco Polo Marine is to believe that:

1. Earnings will improve as more OSVs join the fleet in the next 2 years.

2. The rig delivery by end of 2015 will improve earnings massively.

If well executed, the strategy will catapult earnings upwards, possibly doubling EPS by 2016.

Now, for earnings to improve gradually over time until the jack up rig is delivered by end of 2015, I had focused on the OSV segment of the business as the growth driver. I had simply assumed that the Tug and Barge vessels segment of the business would continue plodding on and that the segment's revenue and expenses would more or less stay constant.

So, for BBR's Tug and Barge vessels segment to turn in a massive loss is a shocker and this has thrown a spanner into my thesis for having a significant investment in Marco Polo Marine.

Does it mean I no longer believe that Marco Polo Marine is on the right track? No. In fact, if not for the decision to focus on growing its fleet of OSVs, BBR would have turned in a loss making quarter instead of one with much lower earnings.
 
Unfortunately, to be realistic, FY 2014's numbers could turn out to be disappointing, everything else remaining equal. This is even if the Tug and Barge vessels segment of BBR's business should see revenue improving and expenses reducing in the next two quarters to what should be the mean.

Lower utilisation of the Tug and Barge vessels in the preceding quarter was put down to seasonal factors (i.e. monsoon period). Expectations of a reversion to the mean did not happen. Is this weakness in the segment temporary or is it going to be more enduring? I am inclined to believe that it is temporary but if a reversion to the mean does not happen in the following quarter, then, the risk of being invested in Marco Polo Marine could be much higher than initially thought.

I am staying invested as I still believe in the growth story but I should move Marco Polo Marine higher up in the pyramid (see related post no. 1 below) from an investment that is for growth and some income to just being an investment for growth. Without the income component, my approach will demand that I trim the size of my investment in the business.

See BBR's 1Q 2014 results: here.

Related posts:
1. Motivations and methods in investing.
2. Marco Polo Marine: Drilling for higher income.

LMIR: 1Q 2014 DPU 0.68c.

Monday, May 5, 2014

There isn't much to say about LMIR's results but this is a quick blog post in response to a guest blogger's request. (Hey, you know who you are and I am still waiting for your next guest blog, ok? LOL.)

In my last blog post on LMIR, I said that:

"... we are likely to see DPU in S$ terms recovering in the next quarter as financial expenses normalise and I have estimated that a DPU of 0.66c is realistic."


Well, LMIR has done a bit better and declared a DPU of 0.68c for the quarter. Making the assumption that all things remain equal, at 41c a unit, we are looking at a distribution yield of 6.63%.

Now, I would ask the question that with the issues which investors in LMIR have to accept, is 6.63% attractive enough?

Issues? What issues?

I am going to be lazy. If you cannot remember, you might want to read this blog post again:
LMIR: Gearing ratio and margin of safety.

As an investment for income, I feel that LMIR can only become attractive again if the Rupiah appreciates meaningfully. When is that going to happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

In the meantime, if I were to put more of my money in LMIR, I will have to demand a much higher distribution yield than 6.63%.

See 1Q 2014 presentation slides: here.

If my car is a luxury... (Buying a $500,000 watch after 3 years of work.)

AK is catching up with the times. 

These days, I get plenty of news and perspectives from what I read on Facebook. 

Of course, there will be things we agree with and things which we don't. 





However, as Rumpole of the Bailey would say, 

"I might not agree with what you say but I will defend to the end your right to say it.

Well, something to that effect. 

My memory is a bit patchy.






Recently, I read on Facebook about a young person who aims to be the owner of a $500,000 watch 3 years from now. 

The person who posted this on Facebook believes that this young man will be able to achieve it and will prove a crowd of disbelievers wrong. 

I certainly agree that it is important to believe in ourselves, believe that we can make our dreams a reality.





Price tag: $500K.





I admire the fighting spirit that this young man has and he reminds me of someone very dear to me. 

He worked hard to make lots of money and bought luxury watches, cars, shoes etc. 

A picture of success but, till today, he still has to work hard for a living. 

The day he stops working, his income stream will dry up.





I quite understand that every person is different but I hope that this young person will meet someone who will impress upon him why he should not buy that $500,000 watch once he is able to afford it. 

Of course, that said, it is his life and the choice is clearly his.





Not many people, fresh out of school, are able to save $500,000 in 3 years. 

I would assume that for someone to be able to save $500,000 in 3 years, he would have an earned income which is much more than that. 

That is some pretty amazing earning power.





However, it would be a mistake to spend all that money on a watch if that was all the money he had put aside after three years of work. 

It would be a bigger mistake to think that nothing could ever put a stop to this amazing earning power.





"Live within your income and save so that you can invest. Learn what you need to learn... Like Warren, I had a considerable passion to get rich, not because I wanted Ferraris – I wanted the independence." 
Charlie Munger.


Related posts:
1. To be a happy peasant.
2. If we are not rich, don't act rich.
3. From rich to broke?

Asia Invest Symposium by ShareInvestor.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Are you free on the 31st of May (Saturday) from 9am to 1.30pm? If you are, you might want to go listen to Mr. Roger Montgomery, a famous value investor, who will speak for 2 hours at an event organised by ShareInvestor.

He will share his knowledge and experience and cover topics like the following:

- Strategies to Spot High Quality Businesses to Improve your Returns on Stocks.

- How to Buy the Best Stocks for Less Than they're worth?


I know for a fact that it is not cheap to bring in big names like him. So, when I was approached to help spread the word about the event, I was surprised that tickets are priced at only $9.90 for one and $14.80 for a pair.

For those who also do some trading, you will also be interested to know that there is another speaker at the event, Mr. Stuart McPhee.

He will cover topics like the following:

- Trading Strategies in the Stock Indices & Commodities Market.

- How To Identify High Probability Patterns when Trading Forex?

With tickets priced at $9.90 each, I was somewhat worried but I have been assured by the organiser that "there will be no selling or backend products throughout the event."

However, Oanda will be promoting their platform during the event and if you should open an account with them, you will get a book by either Stuart or Roger for free!

I love getting value for money and, in my opinion, this is a value for money event! If you would like to find out more or buy tickets, follow this link: Asia Invest Symposium.


Wishing everyone a happy Sunday!

CapitaMalls Asia: Farewell.

Saturday, May 3, 2014

I have filled the form in acceptance of the voluntary conditional cash offer for CapitaMalls Asia.

Although there are arguments that the offer price is unfair and although I can understand the arguments, I feel that there is a great degree of subjectivity too. Much is relative.

Just like how we compare an investment with another to see how it could be undervalued or overvalued, we could also compare an investment with itself in the past to see how its value has changed over time.


CapitaLand’s offer works out to about 1.2x CapitaMalls Asia’s book value now which is cheaper than the 1.5x book value when it listed in 2009. If we want 1.5x book value today, the price is closer to $2.70 a share.

So, for someone who bought into CapitaMalls Asia at the IPO price of $2.12 a share, obviously, the voluntary conditional cash offer of $2.22 a share leaves a bad taste in the mouth. However, for someone who bought at under $1.20 a share during the lows in late 2011 which was at a 20% discount to the NAV/share back then, $2.22 is probably a sweet enough exit price.

I think it is a fair enough offer and I explained why in an earlier blog post:

"The NAV/share is $1.84. So, this offer is a 20% premium to book value. NAV grew 10% year on year. So, being paid $2.22 a share, it is like getting paid in advance for growth that is likely to happen in the next couple of years."

We might want to remember what Warren Buffett thinks of IPOs. If you cannot remember, go to the earlier blog post I mentioned above: CapitaMalls Asia: Being offered $2.22 a share.

Better to wait for a price that is so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2!

Friday, May 2, 2014

My broker has done it again!





Also, I got a free dinner, a free tub of pop corn and a bottle of Pepsi! Happy!




Two thumbs up!

Related post:
A movie treat from my stock broker.


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