LMIR: Divested 42.5% at 52.5c

Last night, I made a decision to sell a large chunk of my investment in LMIR. Today, my overnight sell order was filled.

By selling at 52.5c, I am giving up a distribution yield of approximately 5.7%.

As I went through my records to cancel out the units which were sold, I found out that the majority were purchased in late 2008 through 2009. 

I made fewer purchases in 2010 and 2011. 





Of course, the total number of units doubled during the rights issue in late 2011 at a price of 31c per rights unit.

Since the rights issue more than a year ago, the performance of LMIR has been unimpressive. 

I blogged about how unitholders who did not take the opportunity to buy more nil-paid rights as it was sold down aggressively then would have been better off without the rights issue and the subsequent acquisitions.

What is immediately positive about the divestment?

Given my entry prices, the divestment locks in a hefty capital gain. 

A big part of my remaining investment in the REIT is now "free", in a manner of speaking.






I have also put in a sell order at 53c. 

This is for the rights units converted from nil-paid rights bought in the open market in late 2011. 

If the sell order should be filled, it would reduce my investment in the REIT by another 30.5%. 

Then, my remaining investment in the REIT would be truly "free".





Of course, I have not taken into consideration the income distributions which I have been receiving from the REIT since 2008. 

I could check but it wouldn't serve any useful purpose other than to provide me with a way to kill time.

Still invested, I hope that LMIR's management would do better in FY2013 since I would still stand to benefit if OCBC Research's forecast for a much higher DPU from the REIT this year comes through.





Related post:
LMIR: An unimpressive 4Q 2012.

"We do not deserve to be disadvantaged this way." (FKA "Take the good with the bad if we retire to Malaysia.")

This is taken from a letter sent to The Forum Online in The Straits Times:

"My wife and I recently retired to Malaysia due to the property rules as well as the high cost of living in Singapore.

"We come back to Singapore to visit relatives and friends and attend medical appointments every two to three months.

"However, the LTA has informed me that as I am not an employee in Malaysia, my wife and I - a Singaporean and Singapore PR - are not allowed to drive our Malaysia-registered car into Singapore.

"I understand that this ruling is to close the loophole in the control of the vehicle population in Singapore, but I hope that the LTA can allow me to drive our Malaysia-registered car in based on the following..."

The writer went on to list 5 reasons, all of which I do not find convincing, ending the letter saying "We do not deserve to be disadvantaged this way."

I feel that since the writer understands that the rule exists for a good reason, then, he should not expect Singapore to make an exception for him.

I know people who moved to stay in Johor Bahru and rent out their HDB flats in Singapore for passive income. Not all are retired. In fact, a good number commute daily to Singapore for work.

I have always wondered why this is allowed since I believe that HDB flats are subsidised public housing and if these people are not staying in their flats, they should sell them to Singaporeans who need them more. It could possibly help to bring down the prices of resale flats too.

For Singaporeans who have chosen to make Johor Bahru their new home, I understand all their reasons for doing so with the lower cost of living in Malaysia usually at the top of the list.

However, understand that every choice made in life comes with consequences and we have to live with those consequences. 

We should not think that exceptions have to be made for us so that we can have our cake and eat it too, especially not when the exceptions will exact a cost on fellow Singaporeans.

5 rules for successful stock investing.

I would like to present a book on successful stock investing that comes highly recommended by a reader, Jojo.

US$ 22.95 each. Free shipping globally.

See Jojo's comments in an earlier blog post: here.

The book explains how to read financial statements, how to analyse companies and how to do valuations. It also shows mistakes to avoid and how to detect fraud.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Interview with CEO.

This was an interview session with Nicholas McGrath, CEO of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's management, on CNA late last year:



I like the explanation why the REIT took on a slightly higher cost of debt with its MTNs as compared to the secured bank loans which it retired. This is somewhere 2m 40s into the clip.

If my hearing serves me well, the advantages are three:

1. Broaden and diversify funding sources with dozens of debt capital market investors.

2. Able to borrow on an unsecured basis.

3. Increased the debt tenor of the REIT with 4 different maturity dates over the next 4 to 5 years.

It sounds to me like the REIT is paying a bit more on borrowings for a higher level of funding flexibility in both source and tenor. This could be a pre-emptive move against the almost certain increase in bank borrowing cost that would accompany a credit tightening in the USA if unemployment level drops to 6.5% by 2015.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4.35% Fixed Rate Notes.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2013 DPU 2.58c.

Little Book of Value Investing.

For anyone who wants to learn about value investing, I discovered an easy to read book.

The message I got is that value investing is easy enough but most people do not have the patience for it.

"Patience is sometimes the hardest part of using the value approach. When I find a stock that sells for 50 per cent of what I have determined it is worth, my job is basically done. Now it is up to the stock. It may move up toward its real worth today, next week, or next year. It may trade sideways for five years and then quadruple in price. There is simply no way to know when a particular stock will appreciate, or if, in fact, it will."

Of course, there are many ways to make money from the stock market and value investing is probably one of the best known, if not the most popular.

Get a copy for only US$ 6.48 to US$ 7.48.
Free shipping globally.

"Buying stocks that have fallen in price and yet still offer a margin of safety has resulted in successful investments."

I enjoyed the book which I feel is a well written primer on the subject of value investing. It is also inexpensive which makes it a value for money read as well.

Related post:
Warren Buffet: The world's greatest money maker.

Marco Polo Marine: The longer term picture.

I have blogged about how the daily chart of Marco Polo Marine spots many negative divergences and how anyone who should go long at present would have to do so in a measured manner. This means not throwing in everything including the kitchen sink.

How big could a correction be if it should happen? Looking at the weekly chart, we see that share price could pull back to support at 36.5c which is where a golden cross has just formed as the 20wMA made a bullish crossover with the 100wMA.

42c to 36.5c? Wah! That is a 5.5c decline or a 13% fall. If that scares us, we should stay away. After all, it could happen. Look at the volume on the weekly chart and we will see how it has been declining as share price tried to push higher.

Then, why am I not selling?

I like to marry FA and TA. In an ideal situation for me, FA tells me if a stock is undervalued and TA tells me when to buy. It is also true that FA tells me if a stock is overvalued and TA tells me when to sell. Remember, these are ideals.

Technically, I observed how trading volumes in the two black candle weeks are much lower. They are much lower than volumes in the white candle weeks. This suggests to me that sellers lack conviction.

The MACD on the weekly chart is still rising. There is no let up in the positive momentum. OBV has been rising over the longer term which suggests that there is more accumulation than distribution going on.

Add the fact that the stock is still undervalued given Marco Polo Marine's numbers and prospects as well as comparison to peers, there isn't a strong case for me to sell. In fact, the case to continue accumulating on weakness is much stronger.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Taking reference from trendlines.

Beware of Chinese New Year goodies!

OMG!



A timely reminder for some, perhaps.

Confession: I have been eating bak kwa and pineapple tarts liberally the entire week! No wonder my pants feel somewhat tighter. Oh dear.

CapitaMalls Asia: Reduced exposure.

Although analysts from Citibank, OCBC and more have given CapitaMalls Asia glowing reports, the long black candle which was formed yesterday on the back of very high volume was ominous.

Breaking immediate support provided by the 20d MA earlier in the week, the bearishness was confirmed as trading started under the 20d MA. It then went on to hit the 50d MA at $2.06 before recovering a bit to close at $2.08.

The question to ask now is whether the 50d MA, the new immediate support, would hold. The MFI has formed a lower high. The MACD has formed a lower high. Negative divergences aplenty and bearing in mind that prices go down a river of hope, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.12 to reduce exposure.

If we look at the weekly chart which provides a longer term picture, the 20w MA is still under $2.00. Currently, it is at $1.93. So, in the event of further high volume selling, we could well see the share price going lower to this longer term support.

The longer term uptrend is still intact but we cannot discount the possibility of a stronger correction in the shorter term. So, as I try to be pragmatic instead of being overly bullish or bearish, I have reduced exposure at what I think is the support turned resistance at $2.12.

LMIR: An unimpressive 4Q 2012.

I don't have much to say other than how unimpressed I am with the results.

DPU: 0.74c (payable on 5 March)

Gearing: 24.5%

NAV/unit: 56c

Occupancy: 93.5%

The management could possibly work on positive rental reversions for leases expiring this year. They could also try to push occupancy closer to 100%. All these would contribute to a higher DPU.

Please, no more acquisitions at least in 2013. For now, efforts should be on improving the performance of the recently acquired malls.

If there should be any acquisitions and it could happen since gearing is at only 24.5%, I hope that the management will be more careful in their efforts.

Careful? Yes, to ensure that DPU does not get watered down again. This was something I talked about in past blog posts.

LMIR really tests one's patience and the management's record leaves much to be desired.

Related post:
LMIR: 3Q 2012.

See slides: here.

Saizen REIT: DPU 0.66c.

With the JPY having declined almost 20% against the S$, I was expecting a reduction in DPU, everything else remaining equal.

However, all else did not remain equal and instead of a reduction in DPU, an increase to 0.66c is what we have.

What did the management do to improve the DPU?

1. Aggressive buying back of units from the open market.

2. Continual buying of new properties in Japan.

3. Lowering finance cost through loan principal repayments.

4. Improved occupancy from 91.0% to 91.7%.

To be fair, the REIT actually deployed its cash reserves with regards to point 3. Whether it is able to continue doing this depends on their level of cash reserves in future.

So, there is still a possibility that we could see future DPU reducing not just because of a weaker JPY but also because future loan principal repayments could be made from the REIT's income.

However, if it should happen, I believe it to be just short term pain as future DPU could be then enhanced when finance cost becomes reduced further, everything else remaining constant.

I am happy with the numbers reported and will be even happier when income distribution takes place on 22 March 2013.

See announcement: here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Still a buy?

Lucky 4D for Chinese New Year 2013.

I always say that luck is an important part of anything we do in life. We might do everything right but if luck is not with us, it is just too bad, isn't it?

Well, with the Year of the Snake just round the corner, let us look forward and embrace all the good fortune that will come our way!

ASSI has churned out 4 numbers: 8709

What to do with these 4 numbers? I don't know. What do you think?

Here is wishing all Chinese readers

a very happy and prosperous Chinese New Year!

Sell when it is HOT!

I was on the phone with a friend whom I have not seen in many years. He was wondering if he could visit me during the Chinese New Year holidays, remembering belatedly that I moved out to stay on my own a few years ago.

When I told him that I sold my place more than a year ago and moved back to stay with my parents, he was incredulous.

"Why did you sell? Real estate in that area is really HOT now!"

His statement reminded me of what a bank officer asked me many years ago when I was at the bank to sell my unit trusts which went up 40% in value. Lucky me.

"Why are you selling now? The Chinese stock market is doing so well now and you are making money!"

To me, it is quite simple. Shouldn't I sell when it is hot and when I am making money? Is it better to sell when it turns cold and when I cannot make any money?

Related post:
More cooling measures on the way?

New retail and F&B experience!

Wondering where to go with your family and friends during this Chinese New Year long weekend?

There is a new retail and F&B experience in Singapore!

It is the perfect magical setting for lovers to romance, families to celebrate, and special occasions to be remembered!

From 1 – 28 February 2013, spend a minimum of $50.00 in a single receipt and be one of 3 lucky winners to be pampered with a 3D2N stay at W Singapore – Sentosa Cove hotel!

So, where is this place? Find out more: here.

Consumers in Singapore to spend less in 2013.

I keep hearing how most businesses found 2012 more difficult compared to 2011. I am in agreement. Now, to dampen spirits further, if a report by Nielsen's is correct, 2013 could be even tougher.

In a survey carried out, it seems that consumers in Singapore are cutting back on discretionary spending in 2013. The top 3 areas of cut backs:

1. New clothes (55%)
2. More expensive grocery (47%)
3. Utilities (47%)

If we think that it is probably due to a lack of job security or the rising cost of living in Singapore that is causing consumers here to cut back, we are not wrong.

However, it was also found that consumers will remain cautious in their household expenses even if there should be an improvement in the economy. I believe that this hints at a general feeling of pessimism and a distrust of the economy that runs deeper than what we might believe to be the case.

To cut back on consumption is an important step in individual wealth building efforts for ordinary people but I do not think that wealth building was on the minds of most of the respondents in the survey. Why? In the same survey, the respondents also revealed that they would be cutting back on investments too.

The business of naming.

From time to time, I see very unfortunate choices in names whether for people or things.

"Hi Fish, I'm Noodle. Would you like to go out on a date. I know this place that sells very good Yu Pian Mi Fen (Sliced fish noodle)."

The Yu Pian Mi Fen did its magic. Fish and Noodle got married and had four children too (much to the government's delight).

"These are our handsome boys, Barracuda and Sturgeon. These are our beautiful girls, Fettucini and Ravioli..."

Choice of brand names, especially, could make or break a business.

"Cremate? Aiyoh! Choy!!!! So inauspicious!"

"Oh, it's Caremate...."

Folding Smart Cover for iPad mini - Look at the price!

If you have an iPad mini, check this out:

The price is unbelievable: US$ 13.27 each. Free shipping!

Shop online at:

 and search under New Arrivals.

You can't miss it!

Related post:
Save money with low prices and free shipping globally.

Marco Polo Marine: Taking reference from trendlines.

I read somewhere before that a trader in the USA made a lot of money over the years using only trendlines in his technical analysis. Yes, only trendlines. Nothing else.

This hints at the importance of trendlines and how they have an indispensable role in anyone's charting efforts. After all, don't we hear people saying stuff like "the trend is our friend" and "don't go against the trend"? The word "trend" keeps popping up in technical analysis.

So, we must know how to recognise trends if we want to improve our chances of success trading in the stock market.

If we look at Marco Polo Marine, it is obvious that the downtrend was broken towards the end of 2012  and it is now on an uptrend.

Drawing trendlines, we would see that its current uptrend is in two parts: an earlier trendline with a gentler gradient which I have labelled "T2" and a later trendline with a steeper gradient which I have labelled "T1".

Drawing these trendlines, we know where are the price supports which must hold for the uptrend to remain intact. Breaking these supports would possibly be a sell signal for some. Short sellers could also come in to push the share price down further.

For others, it would represent opportunities to load up at cheaper valuations but we want to load up closer to supports. Well, at least for me, I think that buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go.

Today, my overnight buy order at 41c was filled.

Related posts:
1. Marco Polo Marine: Negative divergences.
2. Recommended books for TA.

Win a free trip to the Philippines!

Want to win free flights, hotel stays and US$ 2,000 travel allowance to the Philippines?

If you do, find out how you could at: Cebu Pacific!

Enhanced Incomeshield (H&S) for my mom.

When I signed up for Incomeshield in 1999, my mom signed up for it too, convinced of the benefits. I tried to get my dad to sign up for it too but he didn't and now it is too late because of his many ailments. He only has basic Medishield.

I upgraded to Enhanced Incomeshield with an Assist Rider when it became available a few years ago. So, it means that I only have to pay 10% of my total medical bills if I were to be hospitalised and this 10% has an annual cap of $3,000 in my case. So, if my hospitalisation and related bills were to total more than $30,000 in any year, I would still pay a maximum of only $3,000.







Recently, I convinced my mom to upgrade her basic Incomeshield to the same as what I have. It took me a while to convince her because of the cost involved.

As we grow older, the premium increases and she was concerned that she would end up having to pay more than $2,000 a year for the upgrade. I told her that I was not worried about the cost. I was more worried that NTUC Income might not approve the upgrade.

As my paternal grandmother is now undergoing long term treatment, I used her as an example. She only had basic Medishield and it expired when she turned 80. Her medical bills run easily into the tens of thousands of dollars a year. Even with basic Medishield, she depleted my father's Medisave account and more.

I told my mom that the annual premium is money well spent and that I would pay on her behalf if need be. After all, without a good hospitalisation and surgery plan, I could possibly be paying for her future hospitalisation bills.







My mom was not happy with what I said. Oh, yes, she is quite "pantang" (which means "superstitious" in local lingo for those who don't know).

Well, when I am convinced about something, I am relentless in pursuing the course. My mom actually complained that I was nagging! Finally, she gave in and I brought her to NTUC Income Centre to do the necessary.

I am pleased to say that her upgrade has recently been approved with coverage excluding a pre-existing condition. Now, at least, I only have to worry about paying for my dad's future medical bills because basic Medishield is not as good when it comes to cost sharing.

I would urge everyone to consider not only getting a good lifetime hospitalisation and surgery (H&S) plan for ourselves but also for our parents, if they do not have one already. The peace of mind that comes with this is priceless.







I am not doing this to advertise for NTUC Income. It just so happens that I have been with them for a long time and I know this product. You should definitely shop around and compare the different products available. If you have not done this, do it soon. Do it today, if you can.

Just make sure it is a lifetime plan and make sure to buy a rider to cover the deductibles which leaves only the co-insurance payable by us in the event of a claim. We can use the money in our Medisave account to help pay the premium for the plan but not the cost of the rider.

I hope no one is "pantang" about me talking about something like this a few days before the Chinese New Year.

Related posts:
1. Millionaire or not, plan for retirement.
2. Eldershield.
3. What should a Singaporean have by age 35?

ASSI is too slow or so they say.

Someone told me that my blog takes forever to load. So, being somewhat concerned that this could be the case for more than just one person, I decided to read up on the topic.

I am not a savvy person when it comes to IT but Google makes it easy for people like me. So, why is a fast loading speed important?

Why do people want to go everywhere in a hurry?
Take it slow. Take in the sights.

Google says "The speed at which your blog loads is critical to attracting more readers to your blog. If your blog takes a long time to load, many readers may leave your blog before they have the chance to read it." This makes sense. We humans are an impatient lot. We want instant gratification!

Next, I used PageSpeed to do a health check for ASSI. Here is the link: PageSpeed.

Click on "Analyse your site online" and enter the blog's URL. Easy.

The analysis will give the blog a score. A higher score indicates little room for improvement. ASSI scored 93 out of 100. Yeah!

However, the PageSpeed Score does not measure the time it takes for a page to load. Oh...

OK, you will love this website I found that will tell you exactly how long it takes for a webpage to load. Here is the link: Stopwatch!

ASSI today took 6.8 seconds to load. That is not too bad, I feel, especially when we take into consideration that I embedded two videos today. Without the videos, the loading speed should be faster.

I think I shall suggest to the complainant to get a faster internet connection. (wink)

Related post:
Bloggy Award
(I dug out this really old blog post dated 9 January 2010. I was so fresh to blogosphere then.)

Volkswagen New Golf 7 2013.

A friend told me about this one. Really amusing:



Already a very successful auto company, I believe Volkswagen is set to make even more money this year. Having cute ads like this one doesn't hurt.

Volkswagen is likely to overtake GM and Toyota in 2014 with sales exceeding 9.4 million vehicles to become the world’s No. 1 automaker!
Source: Bloomberg, 28 December 2012.

Related post:
A new car for S$75,000?

Make money from your hobby.

I have blogged about how we should run our lives like a business. We should try to increase our revenue while keeping costs down. Like what the blogmaster of Bully the Bear says, there is only so much we can do to cut costs. So, we should consider ways to increase our revenue to build up our savings!

Now, most of us have full time jobs. We could possibly be formally employed in the evenings as well and make it two full time jobs, if our employer allows it. I was doing it for a while at one time.

We could also take on another job that requires us to work only on weekends to make it three full time jobs! We would be very productive but I guess we could be quite miserable too.

Why not make money from doing something we enjoy instead? All of us have hobbies, right? Why not make some money from our hobbies?

Here are some resources I found as I was going through the catalog in BetterWorldBooks.

If you enjoy writing, why not try writing a book in your spare time?
How to Publish Your Book and Immediately Make Money

Enjoy music and performing on stage? Could you make money from this?
You Can Make ... Money in Mu$ic

What about people who are good with a needle and thread?
You Can Make Money from Your Hobby: Building a Business Doing What You Love

If you are a homemaker (which covers both housewives and househusbands) and would like to make some money but are unable to leave your home, there are certainly some things you could do.
How to Make Big Money Without Leaving Your Kitchen: A Homemaker's Guide to Moneymaking Opportunities

While cleaning out your home, you found stuff you have not used or even set eyes on in years?
How to Make Cash Money Selling at Swap Meets, Flea Markets, Etc.

If you have an inclination towards doing everything online, you could be amply rewarded for your efforts.
How to Make Money Online with Ebay, Yahoo!, and Google: A Step-By-Step Guide to Using Three Online Services to Make One Successful

Spend some time thinking about what you are good at and what you enjoy doing.

You might be amazed how you could moneytise your talents and hobbies, all the while having fun. Make more money without holding down another full time job? Why not?

Related posts:
1. ASSI is an affiliate of BetterWorldBooks.
2. Do you want to be richer?
3. The very first step to becoming richer.
4. 7 money habits of AK71.
5. Save money with low prices and free shipping.

Something only Singaporean males know.

The uniform looks different. The helmet looks lighter.

SCS is new. It was SAFINCOS during my time. Yes, a mouthful.

ORD is new. It was ROD to me.

However, the scenes are familiar except for the SOC (standard obstable course). Looks like it is more fun. OK, I better not say anything else in case someone issues me a challenge to try it.



Maybe, I should go catch the movie.

Related post:
AK71 gets recognition from the government!

Can Singapore really house 6.9m people?

I have been careful not to blog about politics but I just need to get this off my chest.

Let me say first that I am neither pro PAP nor WP nor any political party. I will vote for anyone who will do the job right. Although the PAP has a good pedigree, in the last few years, its performance has been wanting and the people spoke with their votes in the last GE.

I feel that 6.9m people would make Singapore really crowded and I don't like crowds for many reasons.

I find driving in Singapore really stressful in the last few years. It used to be a breeze driving here just ten years ago or even just five years ago. I used to tell people that staying in the west and working in the east was better because the jams on the roads were always in the other direction as most people were staying in the east and working in the west. Not anymore. Now, it is jammed in both directions!

So, on some days, I would try to take the MRT instead. Oh, the nightmare! Even our newest Circle Line has problems. I was personally affected by breakdowns twice in the last 6 months and for a person who rarely takes the MRT, I am either very unlucky or the system has some serious issues.

Well, they are doing road and expressway widening on top of buildng new roads and a new expressway. All these should help to make traffic conditions better at least in the near future.

Also, they seem to be spending a lot of time and money on improving the reliability of the MRT system but it is going to take a year or two apparently to complete the upgrades and repairs! Till then, expect more breakdowns.

Overcrowding aside, what I am really concerned about is the cost of living in Singapore.

A friend's dad who is in the real estate development business told him the day Singapore has 6.9m people, everything will become very expensive just like in Tokyo. I shudder at the thought.

The PAP government should not squander away the chance that it has been given to set things right or it could see its majority shrinking again in the next GE. Could we then see a situation in Singapore like what we see in Malaysia now?

Till the next GE, let us see if the PAP government does better. In the meantime, we should do what we can to safeguard our own financial health.

DJIA's above 14,000! What to do?

The Dow Jones ended above 14,000 points for the first time in more than 5 years! Could it go higher? Are retail investors coming back in a big way?

"I would say in the 30 years I've been watching it, this is the least amount of retail interest waiting for a pullback, or waiting to jump in that I've ever seen," said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, which focuses on retail investors. "Probably and unfortunately for a lot, it's going to be a lot higher before they get in."

Wren said the move to 14,000 is at most psychological and won't be that important to disenfranchised investors. "When you run into people at parties, unless they're in the business ... the stock market isn't even a point of discussion. There's very little conversation. There's very little excitement about the market," he said. "It feels to me like there's a little bit of chasing going on, but not very much at all. I don't expect it any time soon."

Source: Yahoo! Finance.



We are but frogs in wells. We see what we believe to be real.

As long as there are still investors out there who are sceptical of the stock market, who are heavy in bonds and cash for their perceived safety, there is room for stocks to go even higher. When everyone is bullish on stocks, when there is no one left who would stay away from the stock market, then, the fuel is spent.

So, pick out a few good stocks which are still undervalued and hold on to them. However, this does not mean that we should avoid trading for some short term gains in the meantime. After all, share prices climb a wall of worries in an uptrend and do not go up in a straight line.

Related post:
1. Noises, voices and choices.
2. Be comfortable with being invested.
3. Tea with AK71: A frog in a well.

Marco Polo Marine: Negative divergences.

Although the fundamentals of Marco Polo Marine are sound and its future looks bright, Mr. Market is not known to respect fundamentals. Mr. Market is a creature of sentiments.

Technical analysis provides a window into the collective psyche of market participants and when there are negative divergences aplenty, we should exercise caution when thinking of initiating a long position or adding to a long position.

The presence of negative divergences does not mean that the share price will definitely weaken. It does not mean that the share price will not go higher. It just means that the risk of a retracement is now higher.

So, how do we respond to something like this?

Personally, I have not divested any of my shares of Marco Polo Marine. I am that confident of the company's prospects. In fact, if there should be a pullback to supports, I am likely to add to my long position.

So, is buying on pullbacks at supports a sure win strategy? Not at all. Supports could break and price could go lower! If that disturbs you, you might want to hold on to your money. However, if price should rebound and go higher, would you kick yourself if you had held on to your money?

If the fundamentals are sound, lower prices would present greater value. Why wouldn't we buy? The trick is in buying at supports and pacing ourselves as we do so. Don't throw in everything including the kitchen sink at the first support on retracement.

Some would say to wait for clearer signs of an upturn before adding to long positions. That, I feel, would work better in a downtrend. In an uptrend, buying at supports on pullbacks is what I would do. Go back one blog post and you would know what I mean.

Finally, just to add the confusion, technical analysis shows where the supports and resistance are but there is no guarantee that these would be tested at all. This is where hedging comes in. Something to think about over the weekend, perhaps?

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Looking into the future.

CapitaMalls Asia: New 12 month high in the making.

The share price of CapitaMalls Asia has been rising and with strong momentum too. Amidst bullish calls by research houses, I would not be surprised if its share price were to go even higher.

Citigroup adds CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG) to its Focus List.

"In the next few years, we expect China to be the key driver of CMA's earnings growth, as the company harvests gains from multi-year investments that have expanded its footprint to 36 cities in the country. The majority of the China portfolio is still in the growth stage, or in the process of stabilisation. India, from a low base, also offers significant upside potential," it says, expecting its Singapore exposure offers a visible stream of recurring income.

CMA's competitive advantages in China can't be easily replicated, including a strong brand equity and solid track record as a first-mover, ability to tie up with other local developers and access to a varied, cheaper pool of financing, Citi says.

"Moreover, CMA has an efficient capital recycling model (via three listed REITs and six private real-estate funds) that enables capital to be freed up for future growth opportunities, which offers upside to our earnings estimates." It tips CMA as its preferred pick among China's retail landlords and within Singapore's developers. It raises its target to $2.58 from $2.08 after increasing RNAV on changed China cap-rate assumptions; it keeps a Buy call.

Dow Jones & Co, Inc

Friday, 01 February 2013

Today's long white candle day formed on the back of heavy volume is a good sign. Overcoming immediate resistance at $2.24 could see price hitting $2.41 next.

Related posts:
1. CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.
2. CapitaMalls Asia: Any correction is a buying oppotunity.
3. CapitaMalls Asia: Buy more at $1.93.

Yongnam: Partial divestment at 27.5c.

Further weakening could see 25c tested as support. It is also where we find the 50% Fibo retracement line.

I decided to lock in some gains yesterday at 27.5c as price spiked very much higher on the back of heavy volume. I did this as, although Yongnam is a fundamentally sound company, my portfolio is too heavily loaded in the stock.

Related post:
Yongnam: Looking forward to further weakness.

Sound Global and China Minzhong: Retracing.

Sound Global is going through a low volume pull back now but with the CMF negative and forming a lower low, I was probably too hasty in adding to my long position today at 66c.

Let us see if 64.5c is tested next. I have an inkling that a very strong support is at 61.5c, the many times tested resistance in the middle of 2012. 

59.5c would be an even stronger support as that is also where we find the 100w MA. In the short term, there could be further weakness but in the longer term, I see strength.

China Minzhong is taking a breather too. Immediate support is at 96.5c. If that should go, the next support is at 87.5c.

Related posts:
1. Sound Global: Another resistance level broken.
2. China Minzhong: Partial divestment at $1.01.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2013 DPU 2.58c.

The management declared a DPU of 2.58c for 3Q FY2013 as it pays out 100% of taxable income for the quarter. Note that this includes 0.05c from a tax adjustment.

So, removing this, a more accurate DPU from its business is 2.53c for the quarter.

NAV/unit: $1.469
Gearing: 33.6%
Interest cover ratio: 4.6x
No major refinancing needs till FY2016.

Total Assets: $1.048 billion

Occupancy: 98.5%
Average security deposit per property: 6.8 months
Average land lease expiry: 40.4 years

The management impresses with securing lease renewals from its tenants way ahead of expiries and with positive rental reversions to the tune of 23.5% on average to boot.

Currently, only 6.3% of leases are expiring in FY2013 and only 8.3% of leases are expiring in FY2014. Managing to renew these leases and with a corresponding increase in rental could bump up subsequent DPU.

Of course, the completion of phase 2 in the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way by end of this year and the completion of redevelopment of 103 Defu Lane 10 in the middle of next year will bump up DPU more significantly, everything else remaining constant.

In the near term, expect DPU to improve in the next quarter as income from phase 1 of the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way will be recognised then. I would not be surprised if the unit price of the REIT goes higher as the market takes this into consideration.

The REIT has many more properties with under-utilised plot ratio like 103 Defu Lane 10. Selectively re-developing these plots will lead to higher NAV and NPI over time.

Like I said before, this could be another A-REIT in the making and spells good news for loyal unit holders.

The REIT will go XD on 7 February 2013 and the income distribution will take place on 19 March 2013.

At $1.58 a unit, annualising the adjusted DPU of 2.53c, the distribution yield is 6.4%. 

Doing a projection into 2014, however, I expect that this is set to increase, assuming that the unit price remains where it is today.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 103 Defu Lane 10.

Marco Polo Marine: Looking into the future.

I think readers have heard enough from me on how I am positive on Marco Polo Marine ever since I started blogging about it after discovering persistent insider buying last year.

See:
Marco Polo Marine: Persistent insider buying.

Let us hear from some other people:

On the financial performance for Q1 FY2013, Mr Sean Lee Yun Feng, CEO:

“We are heartened by the set of results attained for Q1FY2013 amidst subdued market environment. The performance was consistent with our corporate strategies premised on four growth platforms which will continue to underpin our performance moving forward.

“On the shipyard front, our focus in securing projects with increasing sophistication is expected to continue to distinguish ourselves from competition.

“With regard to ship chartering, our deliberate shift in focus towards offshore oil and gas sector is expected to enhance contribution to both our chartering profits and margins. To this end, we have added a new OSV built by our Batam shipyard to our offshore fleet since mid-October 2012 and have had it chartered on a time charter basis.

“The recent successful listing of BBR on Indonesia Stock Exchange augments the Group’s focus to further penetrate into the Indonesian oil and gas sector. Apart from enabling BBR to reach out to a wider base of customers, the listing also makes avail more funding avenues to enhance the growth of BBR. With BBR now being our subsidiary, we will further align the offshore operations more closely as a group for better synergies.

“Last but not the least, our focus to generate profits through strategic alliances is beginning to bear fruits as well. Notably, our recently forged jointly controlled entity which engages in the bunkering logistics business has contributed to the bulk of the 57.1% increase in the share of results from jointly controlled entities”.

See: Media release.

OCBC Invesment Research, 28 Jan 13, on the results:

Marco Polo Marine (MPM) reported a 38% YoY drop in revenue to S$15.2m but saw a 3% rise in net profit to S$4.5m in 1QFY13, such that the latter formed about 20% of our full year net profit estimate, within our expectations. The fall in revenue was mainly due to slower progress in newbuild orders, resulting in lower shipbuilding revenue. This was offset by higher ship repair turnover, which grew 75.5% to S$8.6m in 1QFY13.

Ship chartering revenue fell by 5.2% to $5.5m with the mandatory docking of an offshore vessel. Overall gross profit margin, however, increased from 25% in 1QFY12 to 39% in 1QFY13 with a higher proportion of ship repair revenue (generally commands higher margins compared to ship building). Fair value estimate of S$0.56 under review.

OSK Research, 28 Jan 13, on the results:

Topline fell 38% but profits up 3%. Gross margin jumps from 25.2% to 38.6%. Most of the $9.4m fall in revenue to $15.2m was due to shipbuilding revenues falling 92% to $1.1m, while ship repairs grew 75.5% to $8.6m. The fall in shipbuilding revenue is mostly due to accounting procedures – last year, MPM could recognise 49% of shipbuilding revenues for BBR, but that vessel has been delivered and going forward due to consolidation it no longer can. Nevertheless, with a much greater share of revenue coming from high-margin businesses like ship repair and OSV-chartering, the gross margin jumped from 25.2% to 38.6%, flowing through to the bottom line for a 3% increase in net profit to $4.5m, in line with expectations as 1Q and 4Q are seasonally the weakest quarters.

Financially stable. Net gearing is low at 28.5%, and although net working capital looks negative at -$16.5m, most of it is due to the cheap short-term debt which at $35.7m forms 56% of current liabilities. MPM has no problems refinancing this due to its low gearing and the interest coverage this quarter of 13.5x.

15-20% charter rate premium in Indonesia. Our industry sources inform us that charter rates for OSVs and tugs & barges in Indonesia enjoy a large premium compared to regional rates, due to the massive shortage created by the cabotage law. With only four modern AHTS vessels of >8000bhp in the whole of Indonesia, and MPM effectively owning two, this is MPM’s most promising source of high-margin growth.

Maintain Buy with TP $0.61, MPM valuations look ready for catch-up. We continue to value MPM at 9x FY13F EPS for a TP of $0.61. For the last year, MPM has been trading below book value while it delivered a 23% jump in profits over the year. We expect MPM’s valuation to break out and catch up to the other oil & gas plays. The recent +51% performance of XMH – which similarly draws most of its revenues from Indonesia – gives us confidence that the market is beginning to revalue companies with strong earnings that ride on the growth of Indonesia.

My take?

When Marco Polo Marine's OSV chartering business in Indonesia takes off in a big way, the higher margins enjoyed now will translate into really impressive earnings. Patience will be rewarded.

Although I bought more recently at 40c and 40.5c, if Mr. Market should send share price lower again, I hope I would be brave enough to buy more.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Still cheap.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 103 Defu Lane 10.

Readers might want to do a recapt before continuing:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Insights
(dated 30 March 2011)
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money
(dated 3 July 2012)

With phase 1 of 20 Gul Way's re-development completed, the management of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is going ahead with another re-development. This time it is at 103 Defu Lane 10, a site with a land lease till 2043.

It has been disclosed that the re-development will be fully funded by debt. So, upon completion in mid 2014, we can expect DPU accretion. Not only is this the case, the new property will be some $30m higher in value compared to the current property on site.

I shan't say too much as readers could look at the presentation slides which are self explanatory: here.

The management of the REIT continues to impress under George Wang's leadership, no doubt. This could be another Ascendas REIT in the making and loyal unit holders would be amply rewarded.