Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

The STI rebounded nicely today. Personally, I am making use of the rebound to reduce exposure. If the rebound continues tomorrow, I would lighten my portfolio further.

STI advances 2.1% to 2,880.48 at closing
Monday, 10 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: The BDI is in excess of 3,600 today! Good news for Courage Marine as it closed 1c higher at 20c but on very low volume. If Courage Marine is able to close at 21c or higher in the coming sessions, it would negate the bearishness seen in the last couple of weeks. We have a buy signal on the MACD but its reliability is suspect due to the very low trading volume. Wait and see.

Golden Agriculture: CPO at RM2,538 today means it is still in a downtrend which started in early March. Golden Agriculture staged a nice rebound with price piercing resistance provided by the 100dMA at 55.5c to touch a high of 56c before closing at 55c. Volume is also respectable.  We have a morning star set up, a 3 stick reversal pattern. The buy signal on the MACD is more credible in this instance. My overnight sell queue at 55.5c was done.  Let's see if 55.5c could be overcome and the resistance at 58c tested next.  58c, that's where I would queue to sell again.

SPH: MFI bounced off 50% support, forming a higher low. $3.90 resistance successfully taken out as price closed at $3.95. Volume is respectable and the price might go higher tomorrow to test the next resistance level at $4.03 gap resistance which coincides with the 20dMA. SPH remains the largest investment in a blue chip for me and I made use of the rebound today to offload some, locking in some gains. I might offload more tomorrow if its price goes higher.

CapitaMalls Asia: 4r1g buy signal on the MACD. MFI is turning up from the oversold region and the OBV is turning up too. We also have a valid morning star pattern although a weak one with volume very low on this up day.  There are various resistance levels next if the price continues to move up.  I would reduce exposure at these levels: $2.09 gap resistance, $2.12 support turned resistance and $2.15 declining 20dMA resistance.

Healthway Medical: MFI emerged from the oversold region. OBV continues to decline, suggesting that distribution is underway even though the counter has gone CD. I continue to queue at 15.5c to sell at resistance.

Saizen REIT: Quarterly results on 12 May 10, two days from now. Price closed at 16.5c today with technicals turning very positive. First off and a major development: the negative divergence between price and volume has been negated!  MACD is turning up towards the signal line as we see a buy signal. MFI's higher high is a given while the OBV suggests aggressive accumulation. The only negative is the descending 20dMA which seems poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA.

Before the price could go higher, the descending 100wMA which is at 17c has to be overcome. This is a very long term MA and is likely to be a strong resistance. Let's see.

Good luck to all fellow Saizen REIT unitholders!

US Futures are looking very green now.  Looks good. :)

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Tea with AK71: A good cat.

I spent an hour or so visiting local blogs on investment and trading just now. I read the latest post in Musicwhiz's blog.  It is titled: "Why traders are important for value investing." It had 22 comments by the time I read it.  I added a diplomatic 23rd comment.

Then, I came back to my blog and found a comment (from an anonymous reader) which likened buying stocks to betting on horses, saying that we want to bet on the fastest horse. This is found in my post: "Replies from AK71: More on REITs".

People will always have opinions about anything and everything under the sun. This is one reason why interaction between people is interesting. It would be terribly boring if everyone were to have the same opinions about everything. However, there will be times when strong feelings are attached to these opinions. To verify this, we just have to see how Musicwhiz's post invited some rather strongly worded comments.

What do I think? Well, I took a leaf from the late Deng Xiaoping's book. He said that it does not matter if the cat is black or white. If it catches the rat, it is a good cat. Deng Xiaoping was a truly visionary leader. China would not be where it is today if not for him.

Chamomile tea, anybody? It's calming, I was told. Have a great week ahead!

Gold at US$1,210 an ounce.

I started buying gold bullion coins in March/April 2009, believing that it is a hard currency that has intrinsic value unlike fiat currencies which are flawed.  Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have greatly influenced the way I look at current day world economics and I take their views to heart.

When I started this blog last Christmas Eve, one of my first posts was on the subject of gold. The last time I bought some gold bullion coins was in March this year and I gave one to my dad for his birthday and I just gave one to my mom for Mothers' Day. Last year, I gave each member of my family a gold coin as well and the value of those coins have gone up quite a bit by now.

I strongly believe that we need some hard currencies as a hedge against fiat currencies and inflationary pressures. Physical gold is the most accessible precious metal in Singapore at a "fair" price. There are issues but it's a lot better than the situation with physical silver, for example.

I continue to believe that every person should have some physical gold as a long term hedge against all other forms of investments and cash. This could be gold jewelry as well for people who do not like the idea of buying gold coins just for keeps, but, of course, we would be paying for workmanship and wastage in such instances. Some would buy gold coins with commemorative messages and we would be paying a higher price for numismatic value in such instances.  For me, I still prefer the boring 1oz Canadian Maple Leaf as I buy gold for its intrinsic value.

Gold closed at US$1,210 an ounce on Friday. Translated, to buy a 1oz gold bullion coin at UOB now, we would have to pay about S$1,880.  This compared to when I first started buying last year at about S$1,400 an ounce, the numbers speak for themselves. Check gold and silver prices at UOB.

Of course, gold price will not move up in a straight line.  Prices almost never do.  I would look out for dips and corrections to buy more gold.

I will also be looking out for opportunities to increase my exposure to silver as I believe that it is undervalued when compared to gold.

Related posts:
Gold: to buy or not to buy?
Gold or silver?

Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Due to a suspected trading error, the US market was sent spiralling down 10 per cent at one stage and recovered to close the session at "just" more than 3 per cent down on Thursday. I can imagine the panic and the horror that shockwaved through the markets.

The technical rebound that quite a few amateur and professional chartists, independent and otherwise, opined would materialise yesterday for the Singapore market did not even get a chance.

STI drops 0.7% to 2,821.11 at closing
Friday, 07 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Healthway Medical: Announced a dividend of 0.12c and that sent the share price up 1c to close at 15.5c, the resistance provided by the 100dMA. This up day was not achieved on high volume. Not convincing. The MACD has turned up but still remains in negative territory.  MFI has turned up from the oversold region.  OBV has turned up too. Personally, I would sell at resistance. 15.5c is a fair price to reduce exposure. If the price rebounds to 16.5c, even better. The 20dMA is declining and looks set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top and I am still hoping to reduce exposure at resistance. Might have to lower my expectations as the 20dMA declines rapidly. Would it rebound to $2.10? Maybe.

Courage Marine: Guess what.  The BDI has exceeded 3,400 yesterday.  Nice. Courage Marine sank below support yesterday and closed at 19c despite this fundamentally positive development. If it continues to decline in price to approximate 17.5c, I would be sorely tempted to add to my position. A possible triple bottom in the making then?

Golden Agriculture: MACD continues to decline in negative territory. Candlestick suggests a possible reversal signal. Resistance at 55.5c and 58c. I might sell some of my remaining stocks if a rebound takes place.

SPH: Started the day below the 100dMA but ended the day with a nice white candle. A rebound might send this counter through the immediate resistance at $3.90. A chance to offload some shares, perhaps.

FSL Trust: OBV's gradient is turning gentler. The sell off is ameliorating. MFI has gone flat in the oversold region. That the sell off has been extreme could be seen from how the candles formed in the last three days were all beyond the lower limits of the Bollinger bands.  A black hammer formed in the last session. A rebound on the way? Perhaps. If it happens, sell at resistance? That would be consistent with my practice.

Stocks slide anew, but it's still not a correction
Seth Sutel, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 7, 2010, 8:06 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market's wild ride may not be over yet.

The Dow Jones industrials whipsawed again Friday, a day after their largest one-day plunge. The average was down as much as 279 points in the morning, went briefly into the black around lunchtime, then ended with a loss of 139....

...The week's losses would put the market about well toward what analysts call a correction, usually defined as a drop of between 10 percent and 20 percent following a sustained rise. The Dow is now 7.4 percent off its recent high of 11,205.03 reached on April 26. The S&P 500 is down 8.7 percent from its recent high of 1,217.28 reached April 23...
 
Read full article here.
 
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A correction? An opportunity.
Looking for value.
What are investors to do in downtrend?