SPH: Another pleasant surprise.

SPH has delivered another pleasant surprise today. Volume expanded and its share price closed at $3.88.  My overnight sell queues at $3.82 and $3.88 were both done today and made me some pocket money.

617 lots were bought up at $3.88 at 5.05pm, up 4c from $3.84 when the market closed at 5pm.  Some people were really keen to lay their hands on some SPH shares today.

We have two white candles in a row and they are without any top wicks.  Bullish.  Volume, however, is not too impressive. MFI rose and has peeked above 50%.  OBV is rising gently.  The MACD is pulling away upwards from the signal line and if the price continues rising, it would cross into positive territory soon.

I suggested yesterday that "It is interesting to note that we might have seen the formation of a mini double bottom for SPH. Using $3.68 as the trough and $3.79 as the neckline does give us $3.88 as a target."  In such a case, after meeting the target, what happens next?  Using Fibo lines, we see $3.94 (123.6%) as the next resistance to watch.  If that goes, it would be $3.97 (138.2%).

However, the rather weak volume still bugs me and in the event of a correction, it remains to be seen if the 100dMA, now at $3.82, would serve as support. The upturning 20dMA has merged with the rising 200dMA and should provide a stronger support if tested.  This is at $3.74 now.

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SPH: A pleasant surprise.

FSL Trust: Verona I.

Initially, the news that FSL Trust secured the release of Verona I was met with much bullishness and price was pushed to a high of 40.5c on the back of heavy volume.  By the end of the day, it closed where it started the day at 38c, forming an inverted cross.  This suggests that there is still much bearish sentiment here.  Once Nika I is released as well, we might see the unit price of FSL Trust bottoming in earnest.

MFI has risen and is testing 50% next.  This suggests some positive buying momentum.  The OBV has turned up quite vigorously which suggests some accumulation activity. The downtrend is still quite obvious and until its unit price moves above the declining 20dMA, the worst is not over for FSL Trust.

Major resistance at 42c, as provided by the declining 20dMA.  Immediate support is at 37.5c.  The waters are still murky for FSL Trust but it might be clearing up.

First Ship Lease Trust secures release of Verona I
Friday, 18 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Charts in brief: 17 Jun 2010.

Healthway Medical: Second black candle day in a row and we see a sell signal in the MACD histogram.  MFI is turning down in overbought territory. An initial correction to 18c where we find the 38.2% Fibo line is not difficult to imagine.  Stronger support could be found in a band between 16.5c to 17c.

LMIR: Volume expanded nicely as price closed at 48c, avoiding another doji.  We will now need confirmation that 47.5c is resistance turned support. Negative divergence between price and volume although still visible has weakened somewhat with today's higher volume. In case 47.5c fails to hold as support, immediate support is at 47c followed by 46c.

Golden Agriculture:  55c is proving to be a tough resistance to overcome. Both the 50d and 100d MAs are providing resistance at that price. Today's black spinning top could serve as a reversal signal.  Will need confirmation. The negative divergence between price and volume is obvious. I would stay cautious and not go long here. Immediate support in case of further weakness is at 51.5c, as provided by the 200dMA.

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Charts in brief: 16 Jun 2010.

SPH: A pleasant surprise.

Sometimes, the unexpected happens in life and we can only hope that the unexpected happens to be a pleasant surprise and not a nasty one. After yesterday's doji on the back of higher volume, the white candle today on reduced volume was definitely unexpected and a pleasant surprise.  Could this continue tomorrow?  Your guess is as good as mine.

I see resistance at $3.82 next.  This is provided by the 100dMA. If this gives way, $3.88 is next, as provided by the 50dMA.  It is interesting to note that we might have seen the formation of a mini double bottom for SPH.  Using $3.68 as the trough and $3.79 as the neckline does give us $3.88 as a target.  Coincidence? Maybe.

Are we seeing the beginnings of an uptrend?  The MACD is rising in negative territory.  So, this could very well turn out to be a rebound in a downtrend and nothing more.  The negative divergence between price and volume is, this time, supported by a negative divergence between price and MFI.  This suggests that price has been rising on rather weak technicals in the last few sessions.

I would not buy more SPH at this point in time.  I would, in fact, sell some at $3.82 as a hedge and sell more at $3.88 if that is hit. I would keep an eye on the negative divergence to see if it gets corrected.  If it does, and if the MACD rises above zero into positive territory, more upside might be on the cards and I would hold my remaining shares for the ride up.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.