Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 2).

Golden Agriculture: CPO price rose again and Golden Agriculture's share price broke resistance provided by the 20dMA at 58c. MFI registered another higher low.  OBV shows a pick up in accumulation.  RSI bounced off 50% as support.  All signs point towards optimism of market participants. Price could possibly retest 60c resistance in the next session.

Wilmar:  The market does not like the news. Wilmar's downtrend which started on 12 Jan 10 is intact.  However, connecting the lows of 21 May and 29 Jun gives us an uptrend support which approximates the rising 50dMA. So, time to buy Wilmar? The MFI has formed a lower high and the uptrend support has been broken.  Demand has clearly plunged. $6.05 is the immediate support to watch. For any brave soul who is thinking of a punt, buying close to $6.05 if the support holds is probably the strategy to adopt.

Wilmar unit to pay $80.36m for 20% stake in Kencana Agri
Friday, 13 August 2010

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Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 1).

Genting SP: Broke resistance, gapped up and formed a wickless white candle on extremely high volume.  Closing at $1.46, could it go higher next week?  With such strong momentum and a flurry of BUY calls from all the research houses, we could see price going higher.  To any investor who ignored the constant SELL calls from these houses earlier, congratulations!

Citigroup upgrades Genting Singapore (G13.SG) to Buy from Sell, lifts target price to $1.55 from $0.99 after increasing FY10-FY12 earnings estimates by 20%-80% to factor in robust 2Q10 results.
Friday, 13 August 2010

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China Hongxing: MFI has been declining gently, no longer in overbought territory.  OBV rose today, sign of a return of accumulation activity. Volume expanded significantly as price rose today.  This is promising. Closing at 15.5c shows that the declining 200dMA is still acting as resistance. Could the rising 20dMA push the price beyond the 200dMA? Immediate support at 14.5c and immediate resistance at 16c.

Hock Lian Seng: OBV shows a trend of consistent accumulation since 21 July.  This company has strong fundamentals and, technically, the immediate support is at 28.5c, provided by the 100dMA. The rising 20dMA is on track to form a golden cross with the 100dMA soon.  This would probably strengthen the support at 28.5c. Price seems to be forming steps upwards and this reminds me of HWT's chart once upon a time.  The recent uptrend is defined by the rising 20dMA.  Could the 20dMA push price higher? Possibly. Bugbear is the falling volume.

Hock Lian Seng Holdings, the civil engineer and a building materials supplier, says it posted a 61.9% y-o-y increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to $15.2 million in 1H2010 from $9.4 million in 1H2009.
Friday, 13 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Eyeing immediate support.

Anyone who has been following my blog would know that I have a preference for Golden Agriculture over Indofood Agri.  The former is more of a pure CPO play and I have said that demand for oil will improve over time even in a weak economic recovery.  Therefore, CPO is a natural beneficiary.  As Golden Agriculture is the most levered to the price of CPO amongst all the CPO companies listed on the Singapore Exchange, fundamentally, it would outperform if CPO price stays high. In terms of valuation, Golden Agriculture remains the least expensive CPO play as well.

Today, its price closed at 57.5c which is where we find the rising 20dMA. Although the MACD is declining and has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line, it is interesting to note that OBV has formed a higher lower.  It seems that distribution is weakening.  Of course, the higher high on the MFI is still valid.

Drawing an uptrend line from the low of 7 Jun, it is easy to see that a support that approximates the rising 50dMA. This should be a very strong support.  However, it might not be tested if the 100dMA holds up as immediate support at 55.5c.

Indofood Agri target lowered to $2.31 by Daiwa. Daiwa notes management’s warning of weaker margin for cooking oil in 3Q10 due to 5% price cut at end June. Keeps Hold call: “While we are bullish about the palm-oil sector, our main concern is IFAR’s relative valuation compared with those of its peers.”


Thursday, 12 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

By OCBC Investment Research, 12 Aug 10:
Golden Agriculture: Company Update.

Related post:
Why Golden Agriculture?

Genting SP: Uptrend intact.

Genting SP's uptrend is clearly intact.  The 20dMA is still rising. Could it push price higher?

The MFI is declining towards 50%.  Could 50% provide support? OBV shows a lack of distribution activity. So, despite a weakening demand, there is no serious selling down.

Immediate support is at $1.25 and immediate resistance is at $1.30.

Genting Singapore reports 2Q net profit of $396.5m
Thursday, 12 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore