CapitaMalls Asia: A basket case?

Someone in LP's cbox who was rather vocal in his support of CapitaMalls Asia, in recent days, has voiced his displeasure and how he is losing patience with the counter's lacklustre performance. So, is CapitaMalls Asia a basket case or is it not for people with little patience?

Fundamentally, it is a very strong company. Technically, it looks pretty interesting to me. Volume hit a high on 28 Feb as a black hammer was formed. A low of $1.69 was hit that day too, a cent lower than the support I identified before at $1.70 using two sets of Fibo lines.

Now, notice that volume has reduced visibly as the share price drifts on. A picture of reducing interest from market participants. As this happens, higher lows were formed on the MFI and the MACD. Positive divergences? Looks like it. If validated, a move to the upside would meet with immediate resistance at $1.80 which is where we find the downtrend resistance and the declining 20dMA.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Up or down?

Golden Agriculture: To sell or to hold?

When I divested my small trading position recently in Golden Agriculture at 68.5c and 70c, I made the following comment: "A one day gain of 7% to 9.4%, risk free, is good enough for me. There could be another 2 or 3c gain from here but the risk is definitely higher now.....A look at the weekly chart shows that 72c is likely to be a strong resistance. Notice also how the MFI and RSI are forming lower highs and lower lows. We could be experiencing a very strong rebound and when the energy is spent, price is probably heading lower." See blog post here.

Someone asked me today what should he do as he did not divest and was hoping that price would go higher. I told him I do not have an answer for him. He has to decide for himself to hold or to sell. I can only describe what I see in the charts and where are the supports and resistance.

What am I doing? I am waiting for a chance to go long on this counter again and I have yet to spot a fairly good entry. The counter is still in a downtrend. Although it broke out of a primary downtrend that started on 4 January, it is now in a secondary downtrend if we join the highs of 4 Jan and 4 Mar.

The immediate support of this secondary downtrend is the declining 20dMA which was tested today. It is crucial that this support holds up, otherwise we could see support at 200dMA tested sooner than later and this is currently at 64.5c. Forming a lower high would confirm the secondary downtrend.

In a downtrend, selling at resistance is conventional wisdom.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: 72c resistance.

Tea with AK71: Another budget meal!

My friends are constantly amazed by my budget meals and it happened again today. I shared in LP's cbox that I was going to have an 80c lunch. More precisely, it was going to be a packet of nasi lemak with chilli, ikan bilis and ikan kuning wrapped in banana leaf. What some said:

jewel: wow still got 80c nasi lemak in sg

 Piggybank: all that only 0.8 ?

Guess what. I was mistaken. It was 70c and not 80c! My lunch:

Sometimes, I also like a cup of tea after lunch and here is a picture of my cup of tea today:

What is that twig in the water? That is Gan Chao (liquorice), a chinese herb. This is good for the heart, spleen, lung and stomach. It detoxifies and removes heatiness. I would throw a piece into a mug of warm water and let it steep. Here is a picture of a packet (almost depleted) which I bought from my favourite Chinese medicine hall a few months ago:

And the price? A picture is worth more than a thousand words:

Cheap? You bet. Gan Chao tea is good for our health and gentle on our wallets! In case you are wondering if the health benefits from a cup of Gan Chao tea would cancel the unhealthy effects from a packet of nasi lemak, I don't know but I'm happy. Haha... ;)

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: 60c soya beancurd et al!
Tea with AK71: $1.20 Ice Kachang.
Tea with AK71: A simple meal.

To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.

By end of March, we would have received all of the income distributions for the last three months of 2010 from the REITs we might be vested in. The next income distribution for those which are paid quarterly would be in the months of May and June.

Someone who recently became more concerned with inflation's wealth eroding strength asked me what could he do to make his savings work harder. He knows about the stock market but he fears losing his money in the stock market whereas his money is safe in a savings account with a local bank.

I explained that he would still have his money in nominal terms, perhaps, if he keeps it in a savings account with a local bank. However, his wealth is definitely eroding away as inflation outpaces interest earned. That caused him greater anxiety. 

So, quite calmly, I presented him the following options:

1. Leave his money in a savings account with a local bank and make 0.1% per annum.

2. Leave his money in a fixed deposit with a local bank and make 0.45% per annum and be subject to a lock up period of 12 months.

3. Invest in certain REITs without any lock up period.

REITs are, of course, traded on the stock market like any stock. We could make some money or lose some money as unit price would fluctuate. The nice thing about REITs is their regular income distributions which, in the current day environment, are pretty dependable.

I presented him with these REITs which would be distributing income in May or June:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Possibly a much lower DPU of 0.215c payable in June due to an advanced distribution payable on 28 March. At the current price of 21c per unit, that is a 1% yield in about 3 months.

2. First REIT: Estimated DPU of 1.6c at the end of May. At the current price of 74c per unit, it would be a 2.16% yield in less than 3 months.

Basically, in the short term, distribution yield from these REITs would beat bank deposit rates by quite a bit and that got him sufficiently interested in investing for income. 

Of course, he asked the usual questions as to whether his money is safe in these REITs. 

Well, the risks might be higher than leaving his money in a local savings account but the rewards could also be much higher.

To have peace, be prepared for war. 

To protect our wealth, we have to take some risk.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Acquisition of Northtech.
2. First REIT: Is the bear just resting?
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S-REITs still a growth story - DBS Vickers. “While retail and industrial S-REITs continue to deliver single digit growth, office REITs reported weaker results both on year and on quarter, as passing rents remained below the peak rents signed in 2007-2008. We expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters, only to reverse in 2012.”  Wednesday, 09 March 2011

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