CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back to supports.

If we draw a trendline connecting the high of 6 Oct 2010 and 9 Feb 2011, we will get a trendline resistance which, more or less, was what limited the upside yesterday at $1.92. A doji formed yesterday suggesting indecision and a possible reversal. We have confirmation today as price closed lower at $1.85.

Immediate support is found at $1.83. Not only is this where the trendline support is approximating, it is also where we find many times tested resistance and supports in the candlesticks. If $1.83 were to give way, next supports are at $1.80 (50dMA) and $1.76 (rising 20dMA).

What would I do? I like what I see in the ADX. The +DI has the advantage and the ADX is rising. This could be an early uptrend forming. MACD is still rising in positive territory. Volume in the last two sessions were not very high as price experienced weakness. A correction at this stage to shake out some of the weaker holders is healthy so that the counter could form a firmer base for any further upward movement in price. Price has to climb a wall of worries and buying at supports in an uptrend is what I would do.

The overbought condition as seen in the MFI and RSI would have to be corrected and a meaningful pull back is more likely to happen than not. I will accumulate on weakness.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Strong uptrend emerging.

NOL: Initiated long position at $1.95.

My overnight buy queue for NOL at $1.95 was filled today.

NOL has emerged from a downtrend which started on 7 February but it is still within a downtrend which started on 5 January. It is currently moving sideways and we could possibly see some rangebound trading in the near future with $2.01 and $1.92 as the upper and lower limits. Would price move up or down from here? The Stochastics is currently flat at 50% and there is equal chance for upside and downside in the near term.

Any weakness which might lead to a test of support at $1.92 could see me increasing my stake in the company.  This is because the weekly chart shows a rising 100dMA, currently at $1.90. Only after 2 days into the week, it is easy to see that $1.95 seems to be an important pyschological support level for NOL's share price and, thus, I believe, buying in at $1.95 cannot be too far wrong.

Related post:
NOL: Out of the doldrums?

First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.

Today, I bought more units of First REIT at 73.5c. It should be quite obvious that the unit price of this REIT has gone into a trading range. There is no trend.

In my blog post of 1 April, I said "The REIT's price action looks rangebound and if we believe that there is no trend, we should pay attention to the Stochastics which suggests that the REIT is correcting from an almost overbought position. So, more weakness to be expected? Possibly and I am waiting to accumulate on any further weakness."

The Stochastics were coming off a high of 80% in late March. It has now flatlined at 50% which sometimes act as a support in a decline. With Stochastics no longer bordering on overbought, could we see price pushing the higher end of the range in the near future?

The rising 100dMA seems to be providing some measure of support and this is now at 73c. 74.5c is a many times tested resistance and would have to be cleared before price could go higher.

With the quarterly report and income distribution announcement drawing nearer day by day, a positive catalyst for price to move higher in the near term is possibly at hand. Could we then see a retest of January's high of 77c? Why not?

Related post:
First REIT: Bought more at 73c.

Capitaland: Insights with Fibo Fan.

In my last blog post on Capitaland, I said that "With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter." Read it here.

Today, Capitaland's share price pulled back and closed at $3.44, the low of the day, after touching a high of $3.53, just approximating the 100dMA. A test of support at $3.41 is very likely. The original plan was to initiate a long position at $3.41, if tested. Seeing, however, that the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought despite the pull back in share price, I decided to get some insights with a Fibo Fan.

The Fibo Fan connects the low of 17 March and the high of today. Now, what I am interested in are the positions of the golden ratios in the next few sessions. 38.2% would be at $3.38 and 50% would be at $3.32 in the next session. Notice how the 20dMA seems to coincide with the 50% line? This is likely to be a strong support, if tested. In between these two golden ratios, we find the 50dMA, still declining but gently so, at $3.36. This could provide some support as well.

So? Much safer entry point is at $3.32 while entry at $3.38 could be considered as a hedge. What about $3.41? Yes, that too could be considered a hedge although I am inclined not to put in a buy queue at $3.41 anymore because the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought.