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DBS: 43% jump in earnings! Be a millionaire!
Wednesday, May 3, 2023Posted by AK71 at 8:54 AM 18 comments
Labels:
money,
money management,
tax
Why I avoided investing in EC World REIT?
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
A reader told me that, fortunately, he heeded my warning about EC World REIT and did not invest in it.
To be quite honest, I could not recall when I did that.
Doing a search of my blogs, I found out that I blogged about EC World REIT in early 2018 to explain why I had my doubts about the REIT.
When in doubt, I stay out.
I don't have to do a complete analysis to know that I want to avoid investing in something.
If I see a red flag or two, that is enough for me to stay away.
OK, I admit I am lazy.
As if you don't know.
Anyway, it could be interesting to revisit the reasons why I avoided EC World REIT and also a chat I had with a reader.
At the time, I was concerned about the relatively short land leases.
They were similar in length to most Singapore industrial land leases.
Of course, later on, I found out that it was a characteristic of Chinese real estate.
So, it became less of an issue.
At the time, I was also concerned with the relatively low distribution yield.
The distribution yield was about 7%.
If I remember correctly, we could get much higher distribution yields back in 2018 from comparable REITs in Singapore.
Also, that 7% distribution yield was only possible because of sponsor support.
Without sponsor support, distribution yield would have been less than 6%.
That was some aggressive financial engineering at work.
Lower than 6% in distribution yield?
Definitely too low for such short land leases, I felt.
The sponsor also accounted for two thirds of the REIT's income.I also did not like that their debt was denominated in Singapore Dollar.
It reminded me of Lippo Mall Trust.
REITs should strive to borrow in the currency of the country their properties are located in to benefit from natural currency hedge.
To employ forward hedging against currency movement is expensive.
A natural currency hedge protects against disadvantageous foreign exchange movements without incurring extra cost.
I didn't like that a seaport was part of the portfolio.
EC World REIT was supposed to be about e-commerce assets.
I got the feeling that the sponsor was just trying to dump assets on unsuspecting investors by including a port in the offer.
In response to my blog, a reader had the following to say.
"I actually view the Singapore Dollar denominated debt as being good for EC World REIT.
"This is based on the likely appreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the Singapore Dollar.
"Indeed, the Chinese currency has appreciated against the Singapore Dollar in recent times and, going forward, I believe this trend will continue given international pressure on China to reduce trade deficits.
"I am quite heavily vested in EC World REIT. And thanks for sharing your views."
Regular long-time readers of my blog would know what I would have said to that.
We can have an opinion on what might happen to the Chinese Yuan against the Singapore Dollar.
However, we must recognize that when we do that, we are speculating.
What I have stated about natural currency hedge is a fact.
The fact is that having debt in Chinese Yuan for Chinese real estate provides a natural currency hedge.
I hope that reminding myself about why I avoided investing in EC World REIT has been a useful exercise for you too.
Recently published:
1. UOB: Some fundamental and technical analyses.
2. Why defensive investing is a good idea for most investors?
Related post:
EC World REIT.
Posted by AK71 at 9:00 AM 8 comments
Labels:
EC WORLD REIT,
investment,
REITs
UOB: Book value, dividend yield & prices to buy at.
Monday, May 1, 20232Q 2023 is a good quarter for dividends.
Posted by AK71 at 9:28 AM 4 comments
Why defensive investing is a good idea for most of us?
Sunday, April 30, 2023
If you have been following my blogs, you would be familiar with my reminder to myself that in the current environment, it is probably not a bad idea to be more defensive as investors.
The heightened geopolitical tensions in many parts of the world, sticky inflation, higher for longer interest rates, slowing economic growth and the prospect of economic recession in major economies make for a troubling brew.
I have also said that as a retiree investor for income, it really makes more sense for me to be more defensive and seek out capital preservation options, reducing beta or volatility in my portfolio.
When interest rates were very low, there were people who would borrow money to invest in real estate investment trusts and thought they were actually investing defensively.
Why?
An idea in defensive investing is to invest in assets which deliver stable earnings and meaningful dividends and real estate investment trusts, for the most part, looked like a good fit.
However, these investors who were borrowing money to invest in real estate investment trusts were not investing defensively.
What they were doing was actually aggressive and would fall in the same class as margin trading and options trading.
If interest rates were to rise rapidly which they did, they could find themselves in a boatload of trouble as the unit prices of real estate investment trusts fell and cost of financing rose.
What they were doing had little difference with borrowing money to invest in Alibaba's common stock.
If the price of the common stock fall below a certain price, the lenders will come knocking which was what happened to some investment "gurus."
I never want to have to deal with such a possibility which is the reason for the word "bread" in "eating crusty bread with ink slowly."
If you are new to my blog and don't understand, I will leave a link to the relevant blog below.
Now, is defensive investing only good for retirees like AK?
I would argue that defensive investing is probably a good idea in varying degrees for people who do not have deep pockets.
For regular folks who still need their earned income, capital preservation should have a place in the overall scheme of things.
For retirees and people who do not have the ability to stomach big financial losses, their investment portfolio should be more defensive than not.
The ability to stomach big financial losses will vary from person to person.
How defensive an investment portfolio should be should have an inverse relationship with the ability to stomach big financial losses, theoretically.
The more able a person is able to take big losses, the less defensive his investment portfolio could be, therefore.
However, I have often seen people who are ill able to take big financial losses adopting very aggressive investing ideas.
I think they should ask themselves if they liked the idea of living next to an active volcano.
Defensive investing is also a good idea for people who are mentally unable to take big financial losses.
Losing sleep because you lost a few thousand dollars in a recent investment?
Well, then, you might want to do more defensive investing.
How do we do defensive investing?
I will not tell anyone what to invest in but I will say this.
As long as we invest with an eye on capital preservation, minimizing the risk of financial losses, we are taking a step towards defensive investing.
Promises of astronomical growth and future returns from businesses which are burning cash do not interest defensive investors.
Thinking of becoming more defensive in your approach to investing now?
If AK can do it, so can you!
Related posts:
1. "Eat crusty bread with ink slowly."
2. Update on saving for income.
3. More in equities or fixed income?
Recently published:
Investing or speculating in properties?
Posted by AK71 at 9:09 AM 6 comments
Labels:
bonds,
debt,
investment,
money management,
REITs
Investing or speculating in SG properties. ABSD nightmare!
Saturday, April 29, 2023
Over the years, I have talked to myself about real estate and my philosophy.
With the Additional Buyer Stamp Duties (ABSDs) increased by quite a bit, a reader asked for my thoughts on the property market in Singapore now.
Regular eavesdroppers on AK would be able to guess the response.
My philosophy has not changed.
If we are investing in real estate, just like investing in stocks, we want to invest in an asset that, after expenses, will generate a meaningful income for us.
If we buy real estate thinking that the price of the asset will rise in the next few years and that we would be able to flip it for a profit, that is not investing.
That is speculating.
Usually, I would stop here.
However, for quite a few years now and it has gotten a lot worse, we have people buying real estate in Singapore not to generate any income nor to flip for a profit.
They simply want Singapore properties as a store of wealth because of the strong Singapore Dollar and the politically stable environment.
They are mostly foreigners.
Wow!
So many ultra rich foreigners!
From which countries?
You ask, you answer.
I am not going there.
I have said before that when we buy a property, we want to ask 2 questions.
1. It is not just a question of affordability but we should also ask if it is value for money.
2. Do we have deep pockets for if things go wrong and many things could go wrong.
However, to these very rich people, these two questions are most probably irrelevant.
So what if the properties don't make money or if they should even lose money?
If the ultra rich are able to protect a big fraction of their wealth, they would still be very rich and that could be more than enough for them.
For the rest of us, we really have to stay grounded and not be swept away by barbers telling us we need to have more frequent haircuts even if we are going bald.
Now, for those who bought properties in Singapore recently thinking they could flip them a few years later at higher prices, the much higher ABSDs announced might have turned those dreams into nightmares.
The government of Singapore wants properties to be sold mostly to genuine owner occupiers because housing affordability is a big issue.
Singapore welcomes foreign direct investment but we do not want foreign direct speculation.
Hence, the recent strengthening of property cooling measures.
For those of us who are still thinking of investing in properties for passive income in Singapore in spite of the ABSDs, I would go back to those 2 questions I said we should be asking.
Cannot remember?
Scroll up and take a screenshot.
Nightmares do not discriminate between speculators and investors.
This is a fact.
Pay a price too high and we could have a high price to pay in future.
Anyone who is not ultra rich but wants to be a real estate investor in Singapore might want to read the related posts below.
Related posts:
1. Condo investment has been a drag.
2. This condo has also been a drag.
3. Investment philosophy and properties.
4. Two questions we should ask.
5. Affordability and value for money.
Posted by AK71 at 11:00 AM 8 comments
Labels:
investment,
real estate,
Singapore,
tax
DBS Q1 report's next! Higher ABSD & banks. When to sell?
Friday, April 28, 2023
After UOB, DBS is next to report Q1 2023 results.
This is going to happen on 2 May.
I just produced a video on what we could expect and also when I might consider reducing exposure to Singapore's banks.
Watch the video here.
Last night, I produced a video on the stronger property cooling measure announced by the authorities and what it could mean for Singapore banks?
I also mentioned UOB and what I thought of its current valuation.
Watch the video here.
Remember, the sky is not falling.
Stay calm and have a war chest ready.
If AK can do it, so can you!
Recently published:
1. Why increase exposure to UOB?
2. SSB and T-bill (April 2023.)
Posted by AK71 at 9:18 AM 0 comments
Labels:
DBS,
OCBC,
real estate,
UOB
Why increase exposure to UOB? Stellar Q1 2023 results!
Thursday, April 27, 2023I am having a lot of fun producing YouTube videos.
Singapore Savings Bond and T-bill allotment (April 2023.)
Posted by AK71 at 9:49 AM 6 comments
Labels:
UOB
Singapore Savings Bond and T-bill allotment (April 2023.)
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
We have both Singapore Savings Bond and T-bill allotment results today.
As I increased the amount of money for both, I was crossing fingers for a full allotment in Singapore Savings Bond and also a relatively good cut-off yield for the T-bill.
Getting a full allotment in Singapore Savings Bond would not only mean mission accomplished with regards to money meant for voluntary contribution to my CPF account in 2024.
It would also mean possibly locking in a 10 year average yield of greater than 3% per annum which we might not see again from a Singapore Savings Bond for some time to come.
This is a possibility with interest rates softening in recent months.
If I did not get a full allotment and if the 10 year average yield of Singapore Savings Bonds offered for the rest of the year should be lower than 3% per annum, then, I would have to do a voluntary contribution to my CPF account in the month of December later in the year.
Well, it seems that luck is on my side.
A total of $700 million was offered in Singapore Savings Bond but the applications within individual allotment limit totaled $697.2 million.
So, my application with a sum of $22,000 was fully allotted.
Mission to put $38,000 meant for CPF voluntary contribution in 2024 to work for a higher average yield is accomplished.
I will have one less thing on my mind and this makes me happy.
As for the 6 months T-bill, I have always placed non-competitive bids when using cash on hand since I am only a small timer.
Anyway, even a 3.65% cut-off yield would still be more attractive than fixed deposit rates offered by DBS, OCBC or UOB now.
The fact that the "interest" is paid at the start of the 6 months term means that the effective interest rate is actually higher too.
The latest auction's cut-off yield is 3.83% p.a.
This is a positive surprise as I had expected the cut-off yield to trend lower after the last 6 months T-bill's cut-off yield of 3.75% p.a.
This is doubly or triply good news for me since I had put in a non-competitive bid with a sum of $15,000 instead of $5,000 which I had originally planned to do.
My T-bill ladder is complete and the plan is to continue rolling funds from maturing T-bills into new T-bills as long as the front end of the yield curve remains elevated.
Make hay while the sun shines.
I am still on the path to preserving capital, believing that cash is not trash in the current environment.
With so many things that could go wrong in the world nowadays, it is probably not a bad idea to be slightly more defensive.
As an retiree investor for income, it gives me greater peace of mind to reduce beta or volatility in my portfolio.
This is done while ensuring that my investment portfolio continues to generate sustainable passive income for me now and in the future.
For sure, not everyone will find this path that I am on an interesting one as it is probably quite boring.
However, we can all come up with a plan to invest in bona fide income generating assets if we want to achieve financial freedom.
If AK can do it, so can you!
Related posts:
1. Update on saving for income.
2. CPF or Singapore Savings Bond?
3. Largest investments (4Q 2022.)
Posted by AK71 at 4:00 PM 12 comments
IREIT secures 15 year lease for Darmstadt campus.
Monday, April 24, 2023
This will be a very quick update on IREIT Global.
When I blogged about IREIT Global in February, I said I wasn't doing a Chicken Little because the vacant asset in Darmstadt would be progressively filled.
I also said that rental escalation was likely to continue as inflation remained elevated in Europe which would lead to higher asking rents as rents were linked to CPI.
The latest news from the management of IREIT Global is that 25% of Darmstadt Campus has been leased to a German federal government body.
The lease has rent secured at the prevailing market rate and it starts on the 1st of June and will last for 15 years.
Yes, 15 years.
This development is encouraging.
I believe that IREIT Global's management is competent and that the REIT owns quality assets which are very desirable.
Regular long time readers might remember that I also like the fact that IREIT Global's sponsors own approximately 50% of the REIT's units which means they have plenty of skin in the game.
Although this latest development is very good news, 75% of the asset in Darmstadt still needs to be filled.
So, I remind myself there is no hurry to increase my investment in the REIT as we are not out of the woods yet.
I will wait and see while my war chest continues to be refilled by incoming dividends.
Recently published:
1. Update on plan to save for income.
2. Tesla's results and valuation.
Related posts:
1. IREIT Global: EUR 1.28c DPU.
2. 1Q 2023 passive income.
Posted by AK71 at 1:48 PM 14 comments
Labels:
investment,
IREIT
Update on my plan to save for income. Money I forgot I had. DBS SavvyEndowment11 and 3.92% p.a. guaranteed.
Saturday, April 22, 2023
This is a quick update on my plan to save for income published in a blog at the beginning of April.
Back then, I said that I should be able to set aside $10,000 to apply for Singapore Savings Bond this month.
However, I have increased that figure to $22,000.
This is because a 5 months fixed deposit placed with DBS matured and I forgot I had it.
So, with more money at my disposal, I have decided to apply for $22,000 instead of $10,000.
Why $22,000?
If I should be successful in getting a full allotment, together with the $16,000 in Singapore Savings Bonds allotted in March, I would have hit $38,000.
$38,000 is the amount I had planned on setting aside for voluntary contribution to my CPF account in January 2024.
I also made a non-competitive bid for the T-bill auction closing on 25 April with $15,000 instead of $5,000.
Apparently, I had mistakenly thought that I had a T-bill maturing on 24 April when it matured on 18 April.
So, instead of completing soon, my T-bill ladder is actually complete.
Finally, with some excess cash on hand, I decided to put some money in an endowment plan suggested by DBS Digibank.
This is a 2 years endowment plan that pays a guaranteed 3.92% per annum.
This is almost as good as the CPF Special Account's 4% per annum.
Endowment plans are really savings plans with a tiny life insurance component thrown in.
I just think of this as a pseudo top up to my CPF Special Account which I am not allowed to do anymore, of course.
The product is "SavvyEndowment11" and it is available to anyone with a DBS Digibank account.
Minimum amount required is $5,000.
The application process is very easy and fast.
This is not an advertorial but here is the link for anyone who might be interested in saving money:
"A spokesperson for Hong Leong Finance said that rates for fixed deposits have generally dropped slightly in the past two months.Source: CNA.
Recently published:
1. More in equities or fixed income?
2. Tesla's results and valuation.
Reference:
Saving for income.
Posted by AK71 at 1:28 PM 14 comments
Labels:
bonds,
insurance,
passive income,
savings
Tesla's results and valuation. What is a fair price to pay?
Friday, April 21, 2023
This is going to be a blog for me to organize some scattered thoughts and to deposit them in my Pensieve.
I am mostly an investor for income with an eye on value.
So, I did not pay much attention to high tech stocks which were mostly classified as high growth stocks at the same time.
The eye watering PE ratios were just too off putting.
Of course, in the years when interest rates were almost zero, investors who were looking for higher returns were more forgiving.
So, growth stocks took off and eye watering PE ratios became eye popping.
Now that cash is no longer trash, investors are more demanding.
Investors want to see profits and not just promises of future profits.
This has led to the decline in the stock prices of high tech stocks.
However, if we are still interested in investing in high tech businesses because many of them are arguably going to be even more important in the future, then, we want to look at the numbers of individual businesses.
We should not let the thinking or feeling of Mr. Market to guide our decisions.
Last night, I produced a YouTube video on Tesla and said that it was a strange animal.
Today, I woke up to see that Tesla's stock price has declined from US$181 to US$163 which is a significant 10% drop in just one day.
If you don't follow me on YouTube, you might want to watch the video here.
Anyway, in the video, I said that, from the latest quarterly report, it looked as if Tesla was no longer a growth stock.
Tesla isn't a value stock either.
Tesla's stock price has plenty of room to fall before it becomes a value stock.
Tesla doesn't pay a dividend and, so, investors are not paid to wait for things to improve.
In the video, one thing I did not mention was what price I thought Tesla's stock should be trading at.
Tesla's PE ratio was around 50x when I looked last night.
It should be around 45x today after its stock price declined.
This is still a very high PE ratio and suggests that Mr. Market is still pricing Tesla like a growth stock.
However, for a more accurate picture, we should look at the PE to growth (PEG) ratio since Tesla is supposed to be a growth stock.
In Tesla's latest quarterly results, they reported a 24% growth in revenue but a 24% decline in earnings.
A PEG ratio of 1.0 suggests that a stock is fairly valued and a ratio of below 1.0 suggests that a stock is undervalued.
So, with a PE ratio of 45x, to make a strong case to value Tesla like a growth stock today, Tesla should be growing its earnings yearly by 45%.
Of course, this is if we want to see a PEG ratio of 1.0.
If we were to think that a PEG ratio of 1.5 is reasonable which means putting Tesla on par with some Japanese car manufacturers, then, a 30% growth in its earnings would be sufficient with a PE ratio of 45x.
Aggressive price cutting to defend market share is hurting earnings and it looks like there will be more price cuts to come, according to Elon Musk.
It would take a very optimistic investor to think that Tesla would be able to grow earnings this year by 45% or even 30%.
Call me pessimistic but it would be quite amazing if Tesla should even be able to report zero earnings growth this year which is less bad than the negative earnings growth it saw in the first three months of the year.
As Tesla does not pay any dividends, Tesla's investors should have deep pockets too as they are not being paid to wait.
Optimism does not bring home the bacon.
If Tesla's earnings continue to decline which looks very likely at this point in time, then, its stock price should have more room to fall.
Tesla's investors should not be using borrowed money to buy more stocks of Tesla, to be prudent.
Margin should be avoided like the plague or margin calls could come knocking on the door.
Oh, I did not say what price I think Tesla's stock should be trading at?
Tesla has a cult following and cultists are fanatical by nature.
They probably don't care about the fundamentals.
So, although I think Tesla's stock should be trading at a much lower price than where it is at today, really, your guess is as good as mine.
All I will say is that if we are rational investors, we want to invest when valuation is more reasonable.
If Tesla is unable to deliver any earnings growth this year, then, its PE ratio has to be a lot lower in order to make it a more attractive investment.
The S&P 500 has a PE ratio of about 23x which isn't cheap either but it could be where Tesla's common stock has to be if it does not deliver any respectable earnings growth.
This would see the price of its common stock at 50% of where it is at today or about US$80.00 per share, all else being equal.
Are rose tinted glasses still in fashion?
Recently published:
More in equities or fixed income?
Related post:
Is there hope for Chinese tech?
Posted by AK71 at 11:11 AM 2 comments
Labels:
investment
More in equities or fixed income? Update on my health.
Thursday, April 20, 2023
This started out as a reply to a reader's comment but it got pretty long.
I also feel that there are things which many people might want to eavesdrop on.
So, the reply is here as a blog.
Hi yuhui,
I like your phrase "super bloomers" more than "late bloomers."
Before I continue, I want to caution you about having only one meal a day which is the most extreme form of intermittent fasting.
I tried that for a few months last year and lost so much weight that my mom got worried.
She told me I looked like Chew Chor Meng who was quite ill.
When I met Kenji and Victor, my friends from The Fifth Person, about 6 months ago, they were shocked by how thin I was.
Anyway, I have since gone back to having at least 2 meals a day, eating within a window of 6 to 8 hours each day.
So, I am still doing intermittent fasting but a less extreme form.
I have recovered from being borderline underweight, putting on 5 kgs in the last few months.
Anyway, please be cautious because it is very hard to get sufficient nutrition for a regular person by having only one meal a day.
As for what I have done in the stock market, I did nothing in April.
In January, I bought back some stock of ComfortDelgro.
In February, I sold my investment in SATS.
In March, I bought some stock of OCBC.
I have been mostly focused on increasing exposure to fixed income in the last few months.
The question is whether someone who doesn't have as much exposure to equities should be deploying more funds into equities or fixed income at this point?
To help with the decision making process, look at the prevailing risk free rates.
Please bear in mind that this is only one of many possible considerations and it is just a starting point.
If we have an investment horizon of 10 years, an idea could be to compare the 10 year average yield of the Singapore Savings Bond with the estimated returns from investing in a business.
The risk free rate is around 3% per annum.
So, if we were to invest in a business which is not risk free, we would demand a higher return.
Investing in Singapore's banks is not risk free but they are relatively safe compared to Centurion Corporation, for example.
Therefore, a sustainable 5% dividend yield from the banks would be more acceptable than a 5% dividend yield from Centurion Corporation which has a much weaker balance sheet and less robust asset quality.
A 5% dividend yield from ComfortDelgro is acceptable because they have a very strong balance sheet and, therefore, should be relatively safe.
A 5% distribution yield from a REIT which is highly geared is, in my opinion, undesirable, because a REIT distributes at least 90% of its income to investors.
If by distributing 90% of its income to investors, a REIT is only able to eke out a 5% distribution yield, to me, it is not an attractive investment, especially in today's high interest rate environment.
If I must invest in REITs, for a start, I would look for those with relatively low gearing, a high interest cover ratio and a distribution yield of 7% or more in order to be competitive.
The final mix of equities and fixed income we have in our portfolio will depend on what we believe is right for us.
We can only hope to be approximately right and by using some common sense, we should be able to avoid being absolutely wrong.
"What we do is not beyond anyone else’s competence." - Warren BuffettThis isn't an exact science.
If AK can do it, so can you!
Update on Evening with AK and friends 2023:
References:
1. Retirement adequacy for late bloomers.
2. Saving for income: SSB and T-bill.
3. Building investment in OCBC.
4. 1Q 2023 passive income.
Posted by AK71 at 11:08 AM 17 comments
Labels:
investment,
passive income
DBS, OCBC and UOB: Another tailwind from China?
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Recession could hit Singapore!
Posted by AK71 at 8:58 AM 11 comments
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