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Tea with AK71: A piece of cake?

Friday, April 30, 2010

A couple of weeks ago, someone told me that he was thinking of putting some of his savings in the stock market.  He asked me how much should he put in. I asked him how much was he willing to lose. That stumped him and he looked puzzled. He went quiet and then, with that same puzzled look, asked me if I was not going to help him make money. Woah! Stop right there.  I decided to give him a history lesson there and then.  Question: Excuse me, are you an investor?

No one should ever enter the stock market thinking that he would only make money.  That must be the grandest delusion ever.  Don't ever get into the stock market if one thinks of only making a lot of money and not losing some (or a lot, for that matter). 

Entering the stock market is just like entering a relationship.  Don't ever get into one if one thinks that every relationship will have a nice "happily ever after" fairy tale ending.  There will be rough patches.  There will be sleepless nights.  There will be headaches.  However, they are part and parcel of the learning process and they, believe it or not, enrich our life experience, well, in a perverse way, whether or not the relationship works out in the end.

We can't have our cake and eat it and well should we know this. Right, a spot of tea and, perhaps, some cake, anyone?

Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

Thursday, April 29, 2010



CapitaMalls Asia: On 26 April, I said that "when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal".  The MACD has flattened today while the signal line continues to fall.  A white hammer is formed today.  This is the third reversal signal in a row. It is also the first day that price action has detached from the lower Bollinger band. Even if a reversal does not happen, this suggests that the downward momentum is weakening.  The stochastics continues to rise within the oversold region while the MFI pushes deeper into the oversold region. Mixed signals are more positive than negative in a downtrend. Immediate resistance are at $2.23 and $2.27.


Golden Agriculture: A bearish candlestick setup today as the black candle travelled half the distance down the previous day's white candle. All momentum oscillators are down.  OBV is also down. Saving grace? Reduced volume. Immediate resistance is now provided by the 20dMA at 60.5c while immediate support is still at 57.5c. Weakness is very much obvious and the counter might move to test supports before moving higher.




Courage Marine: A strong Baltic Dry Index (BDI) might be the reason for a levitation act here plus the fact that the counter is trading CD. The BDI is up almost 4% today at 3,329.  This is a boon to Courage Marine, for sure. Counter closed at 22c today, the support provided by the 20dMA.


Even though I really like the fundamentals and I like this company, the technicals are a tad weak and I would not chase it. Momentum oscillators are down.  The MACD continues to pull downwards away from the signal line. The OBV has turned down for two sessions in a row.

However, for someone who is looking for exposure to the counter, the current price should have limited downside with a cluster of supports at 20.5c to 21.5c. Any entry at this level should be considered a hedge. I won't break the piggy bank.




Genting SP: A dramatic reversal today after spotting five reversal signals in a row: black hammer, black spinning top, doji, white hammer, white hammer.  This is a good example of how a counter might have multiple reversal signals before the reversal is confirmed in the usual way.


Extremely high volume up day as two resistance levels were blown away. Next resistance levels are at 97c and $1.02. Momentum oscillators have all turned up strongly. Chances of a follow through are good. Not vested.



Related post:
Charts in brief: 28 April 10.


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