ARA: Breaking support. Going lower?

I have been looking at ARA. The downtrend is persistent and I have yet to initiate a long position here.

Today, ARA's share price broke its previous low of $1.29, gapping down and touching an intra day low of $1.26 before closing at $1.27.

The DIs are negatively placed but the ADX shows that the downtrend is not a strong one. In fact, volume seems to be reducing as price weakens.

If this continues to be the case, the MACD could indeed form a higher low as price forms a lower low. A positive divergence in the works? Perhaps.

If we would like to do a bit of pre-empting, what price would we buy at?

$1.22 is a price that market participants would remember as that was the low of 21 Oct 2010 and the counter went much higher from there in the following months.

Next would be $1.17 which seems like a significant resistance which was tested many times before being overcome convincingly. It should therefore be an important support if tested. If that goes, we could see $1.08 next.

If we believe in trendlines and channels, we will see that ARA's share price seems to be nearing the support of its down channel.

Of course, this support could be compromised like it was earlier in August. However, when it was compromised, it recovered relatively quickly. Could it happen again?

Tea with AK71: Eldershield.

I am quite aware that I am ageing and, once in a while, I am reminded of the fact by other people.

Today, the government reminds me of this same fact by sending me a notice saying that I would be automatically insured under Eldershield come 31 December 2011.

Eldershield? Me? Wow, elder. This is cheerful.

So, being Singaporean, I want to know "how much"?

Annual premium: $174.96, payable till age 65.
Total premium from age 40 to age 65: $4,548.96

Second question, "what are the benefits"?

Benefits: $400 a month payout (maximum lifetime limit of 72 months).
Maximum claimable: S$ 28,800.00
Lifetime coverage.

OK, next question is harder. Do I need this? I mean is this really necessary? Opinions, anyone?

CapitaMalls Asia: Directions, please.

On 15 August, I mentioned that pre-empting a trend reversal did not work out and I ceased buying more shares of CapitaMalls Asia. Then, I used the rebound later in the month to reduce exposure.

On the daily chart, it is interesting to note that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing once more. This reduction in volatility when interpreted together with a rising 20dMA that is on the verge of forming a golden cross with the 50dMA suggests that price is more likely to rise than fall.

In the event that price should go higher, we could see it testing the declining 100dMA and even the downtrend resistance again. These are currently at $1.44 and $1.57 respectively. Gap resistance at $1.40 and $1.55 would have to be overcome first in these two instances.

What if price were to weaken instead? I would wait to see if the low of $1.13 holds up as support, failing which I would want to see if a higher low forms on the MACD. Looking out for a positive divergence? You guessed it.

$120k annual passive income from S-REITs next?

With the end of 2011 more or less in sight, I decided to take a look at how my aim to generate at least $50K in annual passive income from the stock market has fared this year. Of course, compared to the end of 2010, many things have changed. Don't they say that the only constant in life is change?

Saizen REIT was my largest investment up till early this year. The massive earthquake that struck Japan on 11 March 2011 left huge areas of the country devastated, areas which are economically important. I reduced my investment in Saizen REIT even though its buildings were largely unaffected with only a handful requiring repair work.

It was a decision premised upon possibly more difficult times that would hit the country and from a technical standpoint, further upside in its unit price could be capped. So, reading the charts back then, I waited for a rebound in the REIT's unit price and partially divested my investment in the REIT at gap resistance.

Next, I tweaked my portfolio with funds freed from the partial divestment of Saizen REIT. I further increased my investment in First REIT and initiated long positions in Sabana REIT and Cache Logistics Trust after doing the necessary due diligence.

Not long after, I reduced my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, shifting the funds from that partial divestment to Sabana REIT, in the process balancing the two REITs' weight in my portfolio.

In 2011, thus far, I have received income from the following S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Saizen REIT
3. First REIT
4. LMIR
5. Cache Logistics Trust
6. Sabana REIT
7. Suntec REIT
8. Cambridge Industrial Trust
9. FCOT

Total: $75,785.49.

Therefore, I have exceeded my personal target of $50k in annual passive income generated from investments in the stock market this year and this is from S-REITs alone.

At the end of this year, I will calculate the amount of passive income which S-REITs alone would have generated for me in 2011. It is quite likely that it could surprise on the high side.

Taking the cue from the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, I might have to set a higher target for myself in 2012. What about $120k next? Why not?

12 of this every year? Wah!

I will end this blog post by again saying: "If AK71 can do it, so can you."

Joi Kin! (ala "Yan can cook, so can you!")

Related posts:

1. Seven steps to creating passive income from the stock market.

2. $50k in annual passive income: Year end status (2010).

3. Sanity prevails with more good news.

First REIT: Could retest 84c high.

Just like Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT saw its unit price moving higher on the back of higher volume in the last session.

Unlike my position in Cache Logistics Trust, however, my long position in First REIT is much larger and I stand ready to sell into strength if the opportunity presents itself.

It seems to me that First REIT's unit price broke out of an ascending triangle pattern. If this pattern is a valid one, we could see the high achieved in late July earlier this year tested. This is at 84c. Before that, I expect gap filling at 81c which could offer some resistance.

In an earlier blog post, I also said the fair value of the REIT is at 80c. So, if you have guessed that I have put in sell orders at 81c and 84c, you are right.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Cache Logistics Trust: Further divestment at $1.

On 29 August, I mentioned that the mini double bottom, if valid, could see price go higher with a target of $1. On that same day, I partially divested my investment in the REIT as gap was filled at 96c.

On 8 September, I divested further at 98c which I thought was a rather stubborn resistance. The stochastics also showed the REIT to be very much overbought.

However, as is my usual style, recognising that TA is all about probability and never certainty, I did not divest fully. Today, my overnight sell order at $1 for Cache Logistics Trust was filled late in the afternoon.

With today's further divestment, my investment in Cache Logistics Trust is reduced to a rather small position, similar in size to my remaining investment in Suntec REIT. I would probably not do a full divestment unless Mr. Market should go crazy and give me a much higher price from here.

Technically, closing at $1.01 on the back of relatively high volume is good news for long holders and we could see the historic high of $1.02 tested next.

With Stochastics still high in the overbought region, we could see the REIT's unit price pulling back to supports. Of course, in extremely bullish circumstances, overbought conditions could persist for quite a while.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.
Cache Logistics Trust: Partial divestment at 98c.

Year end vacation: Great deals!

If you are still planning to go on that year end vacation and missed NATAS, never fear! There are still great deals around!

As I am also planning year end vacations, I came across a few good deals but you have to book soon as prices tend to increase towards end of the year.


Phuket (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$584.00
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Burasari Patong (4 star boutique hotel).

Bangkok (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$647.12
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Baiyoke Sky Hotel (4 star 88 storey high hotel).

Click on the banner to see more good deals!

Book online conveniently.

No service charge for credit card payment. Bon voyage!

Sabana REIT: 3A Joo Koon Circle and 2 Toh Tuck Link.

Sabana REIT is acquiring two more properties.

1. 2 Toh Tuck Link
Price: $39.8 m
Remaining lease: 45 years

2. 3A Joo Koon Circle
Price: $40.2 m
Remaining lease: 36 years

The purchases will be financed by debt.
With these acquisitions, gearing will be raised 33.7%.

Technically, trading of Sabana REIT's units is seeing decreasing volume as price hits a stubborn resistance at 89c. Although the MACD is rising, it is still in negative territory. A retest of support would be nice before a stronger push to break resistance.

If 89c resistance could be taken out convincingly, I expect the next major resistance to be at 92c, which was formerly an important support. Before that, there is 90c to contend with. 90c is also where we find the declining 50dMA.

I could buy more if the support at 88c should be tested in the near term.

See announcements here:
3A Joo Koon Circle
2 Toh Tuck Link

Phillip Securities: BUY. Target: $1.12.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Reit rated 'outperform' by Daiwa Capital with six-month target price of $1.05. DPU forecasts up by just over 5% for 2012-2013.
Thursday, 15 September 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore