Selling a private property just got harder.

The Singapore government has "imposed an Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for private property of between 3 per cent and 10 per cent for Singaporeans, Permanent Residents and foreigners to moderate investment demand for private residential property and promote a more stable and sustainable market."  Read article here.

This development is likely to hasten the weakening of private residential real estate prices which is something I expect to become really evident in 2014 or 2015.  Weakness in the resale market would probably manifest itself markedly much earlier now.

Anecdotal evidence already shows that it is harder to find buyers in recent weeks. The ABSD which takes effect from tomorrow will likely cause weaker sellers to lower their asking prices.

In real estate investment just like in any investment, price is always a function of who is more enthusiastic, the seller or the buyer. Such enthusiam or the lack of it is the function of many contributory factors. How is the enthusiasm competition stacking up?

If we search Property Guru for listings of recently completed condominium projects, we would be amazed by how many are trying to sell their units. So, let us see The Trevista in Toa Payoh which recently got its TOP.

The Trevista has 664 listings under "units for sale" right now! Granted that many listings are probably repeated, let us say each unit has been advertised by 5 different property agents, it would still mean that 130 units or so are up for sale. There is no question that many bought private real estate as an investment in the last year or two.

Now, the more realistic investors would probably settle for lower selling prices. In the end, those who are unwilling to sell at lower prices must have holding power. What affects holding power? Rental and interest rates. Rental should be as high as possible and interest rates should be as low as possible. Of course, how much financial muscle one has to begin with is an important consideration too for obvious reasons.

The rental market has been softening, from what I hear. So, rents, in time to come, could provide diminishing comfort. With more residential real estate being completed over the next few years, lower rents are a realistic expectation.

Interest rate although widely expected to remain low until 2013 is a wild card from then on. With expectations of oversupply from 2014 onwards, the expiration of low interest rate at the same time would be a double whammy.

Good luck to all who are still heavily invested in private residential real estate in Singapore.


Latest update (CNA, 8 Dec 2011):
CEO of PropNex Realty Mr Mohamed Ismail said he expects a price correction of approximately 15 to 20 per cent in the central core region and a correction of 10 to 15 per cent in the mass market segment in the next six months.  Read article: click here.

Related posts:
1. Money continues to flow into Singapore.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?

NOL: Is the worst over?

Despite negative sentiments towards shipping companies, NOL's chart is showing signs of bottoming. If it has not bottomed, it has certainly found a floor and a rather strong one at that.

The long white candle formed today was on the back of relatively high volume. Fibo lines show that $1.175 is a rather strong resistance and if we could overcome this convincingly, next resistance levels are at $1.19 and $1.205.

The MACD has formed a higher low and has once again ventured into positive territory. Momentum has once again turned positive, if only barely so. The MFI is set to form a higher high which suggests a return of demand. Being above the 50% line, we could see some support afforded by this line in case of a retracement in price.

For a longer term picture, look to the weekly chart for clues. The MACD has been rising since the middle of August but it is still in negative territory. The MFI is currently supported by the 50% line. It also looks like we could be seeing the formation of a double bottom.

More importantly, for the first time in a long time, price is above the 20wMA. The week, however, has not ended. So, the situation is still fluid.

A pattern is not formed until it has formed, of course. However, the worst could be over for NOL.

Tea with AK71: Macarons from ZUJI.

Today, I got a treat from ZUJI. They sent me a box of six macarons. What are macarons? I know what is macaroni. ;-p

Very nicely boxed and ribboned.

 
Wikipedia says it is "a sweet confectionery made with egg whites, icing sugar, granulated sugar, almond powder and food coloring. The macaron is commonly filled with buttercream or jam filling sandwiched between two cookies."

Letter says to eat within 3 days but the expiry date on the box says 8 Dec 2011.

According to a colleague, these macarons are quite pricey and they are being sold in atas places like MBS. Price? $3+ each! Oh, my goodness! I could have a very good lunch for $3! Sorry for the exclamations but I am not well informed when it comes to atas food and atas malls.

If I was not told, I would have thought the box of macarons is at most $5 in price. So, this box of 6 macarons is worth more than $18!

I was told that Canele is definitely branded.

Macarons melted and cracked during delivery but the aroma was heavenly. Yummy too.

Oh well, just food to me. It is very nice of ZUJI to send me something sweet for booking hotel rooms and sometimes air tickets through them. I do have a sweet tooth. :)

Planning a trip? Check if ZUJI has a good deal for you! Click here.

LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

Some who managed to get a meaningful number of excess rights might be thinking of selling these rights for a quick gain. After all, selling at 36.5c today would mean a capital gain of 5.5c or 17.7%. This is more than 18 months' worth of income distribution from the REIT if we were to use my estimate of 3.26c in annual DPU, post rights and acquisitions.

Personally, I wouldn't sell my rights units as I am investing for income. I will be getting 10.5% distribution yield on cost. That is pretty good, especially when we consider the fact that its gearing level is below 10%.

However, if I should consider selling, at what price would I sell? Similar to First REIT, I feel that an 8% distribution yield should be fair. 8% distribution yield is still fairly high but looking at First REIT's unit price, it would seem that Mr. Market is not willing to accept a yield lower than 8% for a REIT with an Indonesian focus.

Some might argue that LMIR traded in excess of 60c a unit not too long ago. Even at just 60c, it would mean it had a distribution yield of 7% (based on the estimated annual DPU of 4.2c back then), a full percentage point lower than 8%. A persuasive argument.

So, when would we see fair value for LMIR? When its units are trading with a distribution yield of between 7 to 8% would be my guess. Assuming that its annual DPU does not change from my current estimate, that would mean a unit price of 41c to 46.5c. It is currently still too cheap to sell.

Risks, risks and risks.

This blog post is in response to a comment by a reader, Temperament: click here.

Hi Temperament,

With my limited knowledge of trading, I know that true blue traders must be emotionless. They cannot fall in love with anything. They should not hate anything either. They do what the charts tell them to do, when to long, when to short, when to take profit and when to cut loss. So, I don't think they truly hedge. Hedging to traders could mean having a looser cut loss so as not to be whipsawed, perhaps.

As for risk management, I am a poor example. By conventional wisdom, we should not have more than 10% (some would say 5%) of our money in any one counter. For me, I allow up to 40% of my money in a single counter sometimes.

For sure, we can and should reduce risks in investments but it is impossible to eliminate risks.

It is very interesting how some seasoned investors would tell me that what I do is very risky, having 40% of my money in a single counter but if they only invest in Singapore equities, they are also exposed to a single country risk and a single asset risk to boot. Are they truly diversifying and reducing risk by having only 5% of their money in any one counter?

Apparently, we have to diversify across asset classes and go global to truly manage risk. How many of us mass market retail investors can do that?

So, there are risks on different levels. What about unit trusts? There would be advocates of unit trusts which are supposedly less risky. Perhaps this makes the lower returns justifiable? OK, I am being cheeky here.

Some would then argue that if we know Asia is where growth is and if we believe in Singapore, why bother with other markets? I shall leave that question open.

At the end of the day, how much risk are we able to stomach depends on the individual. We just have to be better at what we do. If we can thrive in a higher risk environment with higher rewards, that is not such a bad thing, is it?

LMIR: Excess rights.

It seems that LMIR's management has the same approach towards excess rights as First REIT's management.

Smaller unitholders would see more of their application filled compared to larger unitholders. I make this statement after exchanging notes with some friends and readers.

For me, excess rights alloted as a percentage of the units I was holding before the rights issue is about 17%. A friend's percentage is closer to 80% and he has much less invested in the REIT than I do.

Although a bit disappointed even though I kind of expected this since LMIR is controlled by Lippo just like First REIT is, I shan't complain since successfully getting excess rights is like getting free money. It's a bonus. :)

Girls, do up your hair!

In my blog post titled "REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale", I let my hair down figuratively. Even if I had really wanted to let my hair down, it would have been a challenge since I always cut my hair very short. ;p

For Christmas, there will be Christmas parties to attend, I am sure. Even a reclusive person like me gets invitations. I guess I am not reclusive enough.

Anyway, many would make an effort to look good for such parties. Girls especially would wonder how to make their hair look good. See how a celebrity blogger like Xiaxue does it.

Follow this link: http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/liese

Girls buy new clothes, get nice shoes to wear, but often, they are at a loss as to how to wear their hair. (Hey, that is what they say. I wouldn't know.)

Check out Liese’s Xmas lookbook on their facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.323820864311101.97856.121455291214327&type=3

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Worth another look?

In reply to a reader, Rookie, who asked if I would consider investing in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust now:

Hi Rookie,

CitySpring at 33.5c? With a promised annualised DPU of 3.28c, the expected distribution yield is 9.79%. This annualised DPU is, of course, lower than the 4.2c in the preceding year.

The balance sheet of CitySpring has strengthened after its latest rights issue in September which saw Temasek increasing its share of the Trust substantially (reflecting a lack of confidence in the Trust by investors) from 27.9% to 37.4%.

Borrowings: S$1,324.5m
Total assets: S$2,004.5m
Gearing: 66%.

If we take out the intangibles of S$ 420.8m from total assets, gearing goes to 83.6%.

Yield has improved and gearing has come down somewhat. However, I am concerned that there would be yet another rights issue to further "strengthen its balance sheet". When? I don't know.

Regular readers know that I only like rights issues when they are distribution yield accretive. If they are not, I need some convincing that they would be good for me in some way. Whether I would buy the argument is something else.

So, to ameliorate such a risk, distribution yield has to increase while gearing remains the same before I would consider buying in. After all, I am able to get the same distribution yield or higher from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT and even Cambridge Industrial Trust without the same level of gearing. This is purely from the perspective of yield and gearing, of course.

If people like CitySpring Infrastructure Trust's businesses or even its management for some reason and find its current yield and gearing acceptable, it is their call, of course.

See slides here: Presentation 1H FY12

Related post:
CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.

Tea with AK71: Taste of Hong Kong.

Firstly, this has nothing to do with my recent trip to Hong Kong. This happened in Singapore. :)

I was at Illuma and had a new dining experience. Well, it was a new experience to me.

Taste of Hong Kong. Business was good!

Instructions at every table.

Waffle with bonito flakes, luncheon meat and something saucy. I loved it!

Inexpensive comfort food in an air-conditioned environment with no service charge. Burp. I mustn't do this too often. Promise, I'll try.

For photos of my recent trip to Hong Kong, go to my travel blog: click here.

REITs and rights issues: A zero sum game?

There has been a deluge of articles on REITs recently and my own blog posts on the subject have attracted many comments although not as many as the blog post in which I revealed my total passive income from S-REITs for the first nine months of this year. ;p

I received comments from a reader, Chopra, regarding my simplistic analogy given in "REITS and rights issues: A Singaporean tale." Read it here.

Hi Chopra,

I did say my analogy is a simplistic one. It was partly a tongue in cheek blog post in response to the rather simplistic picture of REITs painted by certain critics.

Of course, there are other factors to be considered in rights issues before we could make an informed decision on whether they are good, neutral or bad for the different types of investors involved.

To have a blanket statement that REITs will take back all the income distributed to unitholders through rights issues is not only misinformed, it is misleading. That is the primary reason why the article came under fire.

Saying that rights issues are zero sum games is just another way of saying the same thing. So, I cannot agree with you. Some rights issues are beneficial to unitholders and some are not. Just compare the rights issue of First REIT with that of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust not too long ago. You will see what I mean.

Generalisations are often convenient but they are also often inaccurate.

We must realise that REITs give out at least 90% of their income to unitholders. So, they need to leverage up or raise funds through equities to grow. Whether these activities are carried out sensibly is another question but anyone unhappy with such a model should give REITs a wide berth.

I won't go into how much it would cost an investor to take part in each rights issue or to sell their nil-paid rights. I would also not look at the frequency of rights issues. It is like looking at the trees and not the forest. In fact, I do not mind frequent rights issues if they should be consistently or mostly beneficial for me as a unitholder.

Finally, I won't compare REITs and blue chips. They satisfy different investors with different objectives.

Personally, investing in certain REITs has been very rewarding for me. I am also vested in a few blue chips. Certainly, not all REITs are bad and not all blue chips are good. Would I compare their performance against one another? I could compare apples and oranges but I won't. I enjoy both.

Bought Hyflux and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

My overnight buy order for Hyflux at $1.20 was filled. Looking at the daily chart, it is immediately clear why I put in a buy order at that level. It is support. Even with a confirmation of a reversal signal, we want to buy as close to support as possible. Of course, luck plays a part because in very bullish circumstances, price could have gapped up and gone higher.

A white hammer was formed again today as price moved marginally higher on the back of lower volume. It was a weak white candle day. Bulls seemed to be rather cautious as the weekend is always a wild card. If nothing untoward happens this weekend, price could resume its upward climb. Immediate resistance is at $1.28 in such an instance.

It would be interesting to see if price could rise as high as $1.39 which is where the declining 50dMA is approximating. Of course, in another few sessions, the 50dMA would be lower and a gap filling at $1.365 could prove to be a rather strong resistance.

Today, I also bought more AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 95c. This means a pre-consolidation price of 19c per unit. For long time unitholders, it would immediately look cheap. At that price, we are looking at a distribution yield of 10.5%. The fundamentals of the REIT have not deteriorated. Well, not that I know of. So, the weakness provided me a chance to increase exposure to the REIT.

Regular readers might remember that I divested a significant portion of my investment in this REIT and moved the funds to Sabana REIT to have equal weightage in these two industrial properties S-REITs. The only way to entice me to increase my investment in this REIT once more is to offer a meaningfully higher distribution yield, everything else remaining equal, and that happened today. So, you would see me accumulating on further weakness. 90c next?

Technnically, despite a spike in volume as price gapped down today, all that was formed at the end of the day was a doji. To me, that is an encouraging sign for long holders.

Julius Baer downgrades Hyflux to hold and cut its target price to $1.30 from $2.30. “We believe that Hyflux will face challenges in winning projects to catalyse its share price due to its current stretched balance sheet,” Julius Baer said in a report.

Friday, 02 December 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Hyflux and Sound Global.

Regular readers know that I invested heavily in Hyflux Water Trust during the last crisis. I was drawn towards its very high distribution yield of some 17% and zero gearing at one stage as well as its very stable businesses. The Trust helped to grow my wealth significantly.

I continue to like the water business and believe that the world will continue to need solutions to water problems. In an earlier blog post, I said I would like to become an investor in Sound Global (the former E-pure) once again. Of course, I would also be interested in Hyflux. It is just a matter of finding an entry price I would be comfortable with.

If we look at Hyflux's chart, the downtrend is definitely intact. What interests me is the higher low on the MACD as its price formed a lower low. Yes, we have a positive divergence which is a reversal signal. What got me even more interested is that the white hammer formed yesterday was confirmed today as price opened and closed higher on the back of much greater volume.

I certainly do not know if Hyflux's share price has bottomed. It might be bottoming but we cannot call a bottom until it has formed. However, I might initiate a long position as a hedge and will not add to this initial position unless a clearer picture is seen.

Sound Global, on the other hand, is exhibiting more strength although it has come up against a significant resistance, it would seem.

As its downtrend is arguably intact, I am wary about initiating a long position when price looks like it could be testing the immediate resistance. So, for Sound Global, I will wait a bit more.