The email address in "Contact AK: Ads and more" above will vanish from November 2018.

PRIVACY POLICY

FAKE ASSI AK71 IN HWZ.

Featured blog.

1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!

Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...

Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.

Archives

"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

Another free "e-book".

4th free "e-book".

Pageviews since Dec'09

Financially free and Facebook free!

Recent Comments

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Showing posts with label Courage Marine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Courage Marine. Show all posts

Charts in brief: 25 May 10.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

On 20 May 2010, I said that "to keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points." Today,the STI closed below 2,660. The uptrend is broken and we have a bloodbath.



Golden Agriculture: CPO closed 2.17% lower today at RM2,436.  The downtrend is reinforced.  Golden Agriculture's share price has weakened as well to close at 48c. Further weakness would test support at 46c, 45.5c and 42c.  This counter is still looking for its bottom.  Not a good time to go long here.



Courage Marine: BDI is up 2.575% at 3,943 and yet Courage Marine's share price weakened somewhat today, touching a low of 17.5c before closing at 18c.  17.5c has significance as the base price of the double bottom formed over the last few months.  Was what we saw today the base of the third bottom? A triple bottom in the making? Volume has been reducing as the price pulled back. BDI has been rising but Courage Marine's share price has been in decline. The signs are too tempting and I bought some shares at 18c. Just a hedge.



SPH: On 23 May, I mentioned "there would probably be a lower entry price to go long on this counter. I would wait and see." Closing below its 200dMA signals more downside to come.



Let us see if the support at $3.62 would hold up if tested.  This is where we find the rising 50wMA.




Saizen REIT: The news that North Korea is getting ready for war with South Korea seems to have spooked some investors.  One person sold more than 2.3m shares at 4.01pm at 15.5c a share.  This caused the 15.5c buy queue to be wiped out. Saizen REIT has not closed at 15.5c since January this year. However, a look at the weekly chart confirms that the longer term uptrend is still intact as price is still being supported by a rising 50wMA. I would wait and see.



Related post:
STI: Falling through the 200dMA.
Charts in brief: 24 May 2010.

Courage Marine: 1Q 2010 results.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Courage Marine presented its 1Q 2010 results today with the BDI at an auspicious number, 3,888! A happy coincidence! 

Quarter on quarter, operationally, its revenue improved 12.9% and gross profit margin improved from 19.1% to 27.8%.  Its balance sheet remains very strong as it retains a nett cash position.  Cash flow from operations in 1Q 2010 was US$5.3m.

Technically, Courage Marine's chart looks weak.  However, there is no obvious selling down of the stock.  This is confirmed by the OBV which is flat. MFI is in the oversold region and price is currently below all the daily MAs.  If the price action does not recapture supports, the malaise could continue and price could drift lower.




I have a list of companies and REITs which I would like to buy on any near term weakness in the next few months. Courage Marine is one of them.

Read press release here.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.

Charts in brief: 12 May 10.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Courage Marine: BDI is up 3.1% at 3,822 today. Looking good for dry bulk shipping. Very low volume today with price at 19.5c. MFI remains in the oversold region. OBV is flat. Investors are not taking up big positions either way. Waiting for the quarterly results? Maybe.



CapitaMalls Asia: Price is detaching from the lower limits of the Bollinger bands. Although momentum has turned up, the volume is low. Let us see if immediate resistance could be taken out and if $2.12 would be tested. I would definitely reduce exposure then.



SPH: The technical weakness is obvious. Volume has been declining as price rebounded from a low of $3.76 four sessions ago. MFI has been forming lower highs. I would wait to accumulate on further weakness.  If price falls closer to $3.70, I would be tempted.



Related post:
Charts in brief: 11 May 10.

Charts in brief: 11 May 10.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

STI opened higher but declined to close lower at the end of the day. The huge rallies in Europe and the US did not manage to lift Asian markets today, painting a picture of uncertainty with a bearish bias.




Courage Marine: BDI higher at 3,707 today. MFI has just dipped into oversold region. OBV is flat.  Immediate resistance remains at 20c. Picture of low volume pullback continues. As the fundamentals are good, I would accumulate when the technicals give me the signal.



Golden Agriculture: CPO declined to close at RM2,505. This continues the downtrend. Things look pretty weak, technically. We have an engulfing black candle today which negated the morning star setup. Buy signal on the MACD has been negated as well. The rising 200dMA might be tested as a support soon if the weakness continues.


SPH: Opening at $3.95 only to move and close lower at $3.88 is bearish. What has been formed is a bearish piercing line pattern as the black candle declined to cover more than half of the previous day white candle. $3.95 is now burnt into the psyche of traders as an important resistance level due to the failure to move higher today.


In summary, for most counters, prices did not move higher and, so, I did not get to sell more at higher resistance levels with the exception of Healthway Medical which I managed to sell off most of my remaining shares at resistance.

I will continue to use any rebound to sell into strength, for stocks with weakening technicals.  I will accumulate when the technicals show signs of bottoming, especially for stocks of companies with sound fundamentals. The market is now a riskier place for long only investors like myself.

Dow 8500 Before 11,500:
Sell the Surge, Suttmeier Says
Posted May 10, 2010 09:47am EDT by Aaron Task
 


Related post:
Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

Monday, May 10, 2010

The STI rebounded nicely today. Personally, I am making use of the rebound to reduce exposure. If the rebound continues tomorrow, I would lighten my portfolio further.




Courage Marine: The BDI is in excess of 3,600 today! Good news for Courage Marine as it closed 1c higher at 20c but on very low volume. If Courage Marine is able to close at 21c or higher in the coming sessions, it would negate the bearishness seen in the last couple of weeks. We have a buy signal on the MACD but its reliability is suspect due to the very low trading volume. Wait and see.




Golden Agriculture: CPO at RM2,538 today means it is still in a downtrend which started in early March. Golden Agriculture staged a nice rebound with price piercing resistance provided by the 100dMA at 55.5c to touch a high of 56c before closing at 55c. Volume is also respectable.  We have a morning star set up, a 3 stick reversal pattern. The buy signal on the MACD is more credible in this instance. My overnight sell queue at 55.5c was done.  Let's see if 55.5c could be overcome and the resistance at 58c tested next.  58c, that's where I would queue to sell again.



SPH: MFI bounced off 50% support, forming a higher low. $3.90 resistance successfully taken out as price closed at $3.95. Volume is respectable and the price might go higher tomorrow to test the next resistance level at $4.03 gap resistance which coincides with the 20dMA. SPH remains the largest investment in a blue chip for me and I made use of the rebound today to offload some, locking in some gains. I might offload more tomorrow if its price goes higher.



CapitaMalls Asia: 4r1g buy signal on the MACD. MFI is turning up from the oversold region and the OBV is turning up too. We also have a valid morning star pattern although a weak one with volume very low on this up day.  There are various resistance levels next if the price continues to move up.  I would reduce exposure at these levels: $2.09 gap resistance, $2.12 support turned resistance and $2.15 declining 20dMA resistance.



Healthway Medical: MFI emerged from the oversold region. OBV continues to decline, suggesting that distribution is underway even though the counter has gone CD. I continue to queue at 15.5c to sell at resistance.



Saizen REIT: Quarterly results on 12 May 10, two days from now. Price closed at 16.5c today with technicals turning very positive. First off and a major development: the negative divergence between price and volume has been negated!  MACD is turning up towards the signal line as we see a buy signal. MFI's higher high is a given while the OBV suggests aggressive accumulation. The only negative is the descending 20dMA which seems poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA.



Before the price could go higher, the descending 100wMA which is at 17c has to be overcome. This is a very long term MA and is likely to be a strong resistance. Let's see.



Good luck to all fellow Saizen REIT unitholders!

US Futures are looking very green now.  Looks good. :)

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Saturday, May 8, 2010


Due to a suspected trading error, the US market was sent spiralling down 10 per cent at one stage and recovered to close the session at "just" more than 3 per cent down on Thursday. I can imagine the panic and the horror that shockwaved through the markets.

The technical rebound that quite a few amateur and professional chartists, independent and otherwise, opined would materialise yesterday for the Singapore market did not even get a chance.


Healthway Medical: Announced a dividend of 0.12c and that sent the share price up 1c to close at 15.5c, the resistance provided by the 100dMA. This up day was not achieved on high volume. Not convincing. The MACD has turned up but still remains in negative territory.  MFI has turned up from the oversold region.  OBV has turned up too. Personally, I would sell at resistance. 15.5c is a fair price to reduce exposure. If the price rebounds to 16.5c, even better. The 20dMA is declining and looks set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA.


CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top and I am still hoping to reduce exposure at resistance. Might have to lower my expectations as the 20dMA declines rapidly. Would it rebound to $2.10? Maybe.


Courage Marine: Guess what.  The BDI has exceeded 3,400 yesterday.  Nice. Courage Marine sank below support yesterday and closed at 19c despite this fundamentally positive development. If it continues to decline in price to approximate 17.5c, I would be sorely tempted to add to my position. A possible triple bottom in the making then?


Golden Agriculture: MACD continues to decline in negative territory. Candlestick suggests a possible reversal signal. Resistance at 55.5c and 58c. I might sell some of my remaining stocks if a rebound takes place.


SPH: Started the day below the 100dMA but ended the day with a nice white candle. A rebound might send this counter through the immediate resistance at $3.90. A chance to offload some shares, perhaps.


FSL Trust: OBV's gradient is turning gentler. The sell off is ameliorating. MFI has gone flat in the oversold region. That the sell off has been extreme could be seen from how the candles formed in the last three days were all beyond the lower limits of the Bollinger bands.  A black hammer formed in the last session. A rebound on the way? Perhaps. If it happens, sell at resistance? That would be consistent with my practice.


Stocks slide anew, but it's still not a correction
Seth Sutel, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 7, 2010, 8:06 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market's wild ride may not be over yet.

The Dow Jones industrials whipsawed again Friday, a day after their largest one-day plunge. The average was down as much as 279 points in the morning, went briefly into the black around lunchtime, then ended with a loss of 139....

...The week's losses would put the market about well toward what analysts call a correction, usually defined as a drop of between 10 percent and 20 percent following a sustained rise. The Dow is now 7.4 percent off its recent high of 11,205.03 reached on April 26. The S&P 500 is down 8.7 percent from its recent high of 1,217.28 reached April 23...
 
Read full article here.
 
Related posts:
A correction? An opportunity.
Looking for value.
What are investors to do in downtrend?

Charts in brief: 5 May 10.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010



Saizen REIT: FA is about value. TA is about price. Although this REIT is still severely undervalued, when negative sentiments rule, its price could get pushed down lower. My overnight buy queue at 16c was not done.  I am back in the queue.


For people who are hoping to make a quick buck, this might not be a good time to buy in. MFI has formed a lower low and OBV is down. MACD is under zero. All technicals are bearish except for a consistent picture of low volume pullback. If this counter tests the rising 200dMA at 15.5c, I would buy more.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Technically, this REIT is stronger than Saizen REIT.  MFI has formed higher lows and OBV has hardly declined.  The MACD is poised for a bearish crossover with the signal line though. The merged 50d and 100d MAs provide an important support at 21.5c and 23c remains the resistance.


CapitaMalls Asia:  Could this be a morning star setup? If the price opens above today's closing price of $2.08 and trades to close at or above $2.12 tomorrow, there is hope. The MFI is still in oversold territory but the decline has halted.  OBV is still declining and amidst the distribution activity, price managed form a white candle today.  This, I view as positive. In the event of a successful morning star setup, I expect initial resistance at $2.19.


SPH: Fourth consecutive black candle day. Black spinning top today. Looking at the MFI, we see that this counter was overbought for quite a while.  The index is now moving towards 50%.  50% on the MFI sometimes function as a support or resistance.  Together with the black spinning top today, which suggests indecision in a downtrend, we might see a rebound.  This is especially the case when price is now trading at the lower end of the Bollinger bands.


In the event of a rebound, the downturning 20dMA should provide a strong resistance.  This is at $4.04 now. The set up now might give rise to a morning star pattern just like for CapitaMalls Asia.  We will have to wait and see.  100dMA provides support at $3.79 and 200dMA provides support at $3.67 in the event of a further decline in price.

Golden Agriculture: MFI declines. OBV declines.  MACD has gone under zero. Overall, a bearish picture. The price managed to close at 55.5c, the support identified in previous TAs.  However, that this support was punctured today is a negative. If the 200dMA at 50.5c is tested, it has to hold.  If it does not, the uptrend is compromised. No prize for guessing where I am putting my buy queues.


Healthway Medical: Nothing much has changed apart from the fact that price touched a low of 14.5c today. 14c next? Possibly but the picture of low volume pullback is intact. We do not want to see the rising 200dMA breached.  This is currently just below 14c.  I might join the buy queue at 14c as a hedge.


FSL Trust: Heavy reduction in volume as price moved lower today to close at 52c. MFI has moved deeper into oversold territory.  OBV declined further. Another probable morning star setup. In the event of a reversal, strong resistance could be found at 60c.


I still see support at 51c in the event of a continuing decline. I bought some units today at 52c with a view that most of the heavy selling is done and over with.  Of course, I cannot say that the selling is over but any selling would probably be less vigorous from now on. The panic we see here approximate that of what was seen during the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and such panic, I believe, has to be overdone.

Courage Marine: Got my shares today at 20.5c and 20c.  MFI declining towards 50%. OBV declining. MACD moving towards zero and would probably go under. The best case scenario, technically, for this counter now is some sideway movement for some time to come, it would seem. What is left for me to do now is the easy part: hold.  Of course, I might buy more on any further weakness.


Related posts:
Charts in brief: 4 May 10.

Charts in brief: 4 May 10.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010



Courage Marine: Closed at 20.5c and I managed to get part of my overnight buy queue filled. In the buy queue again tomorrow. I am also in the queue to buy at 20c. Uptrend is still intact although weakened. The MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line.  The weakness would probably continue.  I would draw attention to the volume.  It is shrinking with the weakening price.  A low volume pullback. Fundamentally, this is still one of the stronger shipping companies listed in Singapore.




CapitaMalls Asia: Sell signal on the MACD. Reversal hopes dashed. Reaching a low of $2.09 before closing at the round number of $2.10 suggests more weakness to come on an ugly black candle day. $2.07 is the next support.  I am not buying more for now.  I will wait and see if the subsequent support levels hold.  Buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go but the downtrend here is clear.


Golden Agriculture: Went XD. Price closed at the 58c support.  Next support is at 55.5c. The MACD continues to move down and is approaching zero.  The MFI continues to decline below 50%, suggesting a lack of buying momentum. There is no heavy selling going on but continuing weakness seems likely.  This would likely put more stress on the current support level.


Healthway Medical: A picture of low volume pullback continues as price closed at 15c today. 138.2% Fibo is at 15c and the 150% Fibo approximates 15c.  This is a stronger support than 15.5c, surely.


MFI is creeping up in the oversold region which suggests that buying momentum is slowly improving.  OBV is slowly drifting down which suggests that there are people giving up and selling down the counter.  No big movement either way which suggests that slowly buying in as a hedge is quite safe.  The rising 200dMA is at 13.5c and this limits the downside risk.

Saizen REIT: MFI dipped further into oversold territory. OBV is flat. MACD has dipped under zero.  The weakness is obvious.  It is during times of pessimism when people are giving up that bargains are to be found.  The reasons for me to buy into Saizen REIT remain valid and I am still in the buy queue at 16c.


FSL Trust: This counter stood out like a sore thumb in my watchlist.  It was so red and sore that I had to do a midday analysis of it. Well, technically, the picture is so obviously negative that it is not necessary to say much. The merged 100d and 200d MAs provided a very important support at 60.5c.  Breaching that was a bad sign. The gapping down today and the subsequent huge ugly black candle suggests further weakness.


The question on people's minds is probably how low might it go? I don't know but I can tell that the next important support is at 51c or so.  This is derived from drawing two sets of Fibo lines.  I would wait and see if that holds, if it goes that low.

Fundamentally, FSL Trust's business is a simple one.  It has to ensure that its ships are leased out and it gets charter income.  After deducting all the expenses, it could distribute what is left to unitholders.  These days, it does not give out 100% as it keeps some to pay down its debts.  It is still paying out of its cash flow and not earnings.

The premature end to the two leases would cost the trust US$20,700 x 2 per day in charter income. This represents 15% of FSL's charter income. This might affect future DPU if the management does not have any contingency plans to reduce the negative impact of this development.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?
Charts in brief: 3 May 10.


Posted May 04, 2010 10:07am EDT by Henry Blodget

Charts in brief: 3 May 10.

Monday, May 3, 2010

A brand new trading day in a brand new month.  It's May! Are you going to sell in May and go away?




CapitaMalls Asia: Black candle day on reduced volume. Price closed at gap support: $2.16. MFI is still in the oversold region. MACD is still below zero.  Momentum is negative but the distance between the MACD and signal line has narrowed. Reversal is looking dicey, again. See what happens tomorrow.  As usual, I would sell on the way up.  If price continues to decline, look to the next supports and see if they hold.  Would buy on weakness if supports hold as I still like the fundamentals of this counter.



Golden Agriculture: MFI and OBV flattened.  This counter is looking directionless. Having been trading beneath the 20dMA ,which has turned downwards, for four sessions in a row does suggest that a slow drift downwards is probable. 60c is the immediate resistance now.  If the support at 58c is taken out, the next support could be found at 55.5c as provided by the rising 100dMA.



Healthway Medical: Traded the whole day at one price only, 15.5c. The trading volume has been in decline as the price drifted lower.  This is a positive. The rising 100dMA should provide a relatively strong support at 15.5c.  The MFI is in oversold territory and I do not expect the price to crash.



The current price level is good to enter as a hedge for anyone who has been waiting to get in.  However, looking the MACD's behaviour of staying closely to the signal line in a parallel fashion as it goes deeper into negative territory suggests that this malaise might continue for some time. In case of further weakness, support would strengthen with every 0.5c decline in price.

Courage Marine: Price plunged after XD today. I like the fundamentals of the company and I see 20.5c as a strong support provided by the rising 50dMA and I would buy more at that level.  Price might continue to weaken to 20c and I would accumulate if it happens.  If price continues to lower towards 18c which is the price where the counter made a double bottom, I would load up more.  A triple bottom?  Maybe.  So, buy on weakness but I would not break the piggy bank.



Especially, I would like to draw attention to the declining volume as price weakens.  It is a low volume pullback.  This gives me greater confidence in my decision to accumulate on weakness.  The FA is good.  The TA lets us know entry prices which are considered fair.  It doesn't get any better than this for me.

Saizen REIT: Ongoing weakness seen here. 16c might be called upon as the support next and this, in my opinion, would be a strong support as we see three Fibo lines approximate 16c. They are the 138.2%, 150% and 161.8% Fibos. I am in the buy queue at 16c.



MFI is in the oversold region but the down trending OBV suggests some distribution activity.  So, it might be oversold but there are unitholders who are still willing to sell down.  Looking at the numbers, the suggestion is that smaller unitholders are the ones selling.  I do not see any high volume sell downs. For a REIT with almost a billion units currently in the market, a daily trading volume of 1m to 2m units is almost nothing.  If people are willing to sell cheaper, I am willing to buy cheaper.  At 16c, this would be almost a steal at a 60% discount to the last reported NAV!

Related post:
Charts in brief: 30 April 10.

Charts in brief: 30 April 10.

Friday, April 30, 2010




CapitaMalls Asia: Closing at $2.19 on high volume on a white candle day confirmed a reversal.  The MACD continues moving upwards towards the signal line and could form a bullish crossover if the momentum continues.  MFI has turned up sharply but is still in the oversold region.  OBV has turned up sharply indicating increased accumulation.  Immediate resistance is at $2.23 and $2.27.


AIMS AMP Capital Ind REIT: This is the second session in a row where price closed at 23c.  The 50dMA is crossing 100dMA to form a golden cross. MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  MFI continues to rise but is not overbought.  OBV continues to climb upwards in a steplike fashion. This counter is unlikely to rocket upwards in price but it is a steady performer with limited downside.


Golden Agriculture: Another black candle day on heavier volume, with price closing unchanged. MACD is still in decline while the MFI and OBV are flattish. This counter seems to be stuck in a slow drift downwards and it has been forming lower lows.


Courage Marine: Buying momentum is still on the retreat as the MACD continues to pull away from the signal line on the downside. MFI continues its decline. However, OBV has turned up which probably resulted in today's white candle. Volatility has reduced somewhat and the Bollinger bands are beginning to narrow.  22c has been established as the immediate support.


Saizen REIT: Very high volume sell down today as units traded at only one price, 16.5c. Technically, things look bearish.  The MACD continues to decline towards zero.  MFI has entered the oversold region.  OBV has gone below what I identified as a critical support. Momentum oscillators have not been so bearish in a while.


Although the uptrend is intact, continuing sell down might see the price pushed to as low as 15.5c, a support provided by the rising 200dMA. It seems that the declining 100wMA is creating a tempest.

Of course, Saizen REIT is announcing its results on 12 May. Would that provide a positive catalyst for price to leapfrog the 100wMA? We will just have to wait and see.


Related post:
Charts in brief: 29 April 10.


Monthly Popular Blog Posts

All time ASSI most popular!

 
 
Bloggy Award