6M 2015 passive income from S-REITs.

I shared how and why I reduced my investment in Sabana REIT substantially and the much lower level of passive income received from my S-REIT portfolio last year was mostly due to this. I retain a very small position in Sabana REIT as a reminder or incentive for me to track new developments, if any. The REIT could become a good investment again in future if the management get their act together.

I feel that although the distribution yield looks relatively attractive for Sabana REIT now, investors want to be cautious and remember that there are only a few months "before the expiry of 11 master leases (and) the Manager is working towards renewing or securing new master leases for 7 of them. The remaining 4 will likely be converted into multi-tenanted buildings." Occupancy level will most likely fall and DPU will most likely take a hit, all else remaining equal.

I am still rather happy with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. They are doing the right things to add value for unitholders, especially in the way they go about re-developing their properties to max out their plot ratios. I really like how they secure pre-commitment before embarking on such projects and I like the fact that insiders have a meaningful stake in the REIT too. This REIT is definitely one up on Sabana REIT.

I haven't really made any changes to my portfolio of S-REITs (from July 2014 to June 2015) apart from initiating a long position in Soilbuild REIT. The expectation that the REIT would benefit from commercial entities moving their activities (like call centres and IT departments) to business parks should pan out nicely.

So, although industrial properties S-REITs are expected to face challenges from more supply of industrial space in the next 2 years or so, Soilbuild REIT should weather this relatively well.

What about my investment in Saizen REIT? Well, there is some talk on how residential property prices in Japan have gone up in recent times because foreigners are more enthusiastically investing in Japan again. There is also some talk about how prices have gone up too much because rentals have not gone up in tandem. So, some are saying that prices must come down and maybe they would.

Now, perhaps, it is timely to remind ourselves that Japanese residential property prices continually fell for two decades and the fall in prices had been much sharper than the fall in rental in those twenty years.

Something I blogged about in December 2009: here.

The increase in property prices since the introduction of Abenomics is just a bump in comparison to the fall off the cliff in those twenty years. Saizen REIT remains very undervalued and should be a natural beneficiary of the recovery of the Japanese housing market.

My three largest investments in S-REITs are still:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. First REIT
3. Saizen REIT

They account for the bulk of my passive income from S-REITs.

I also have smaller long positions in the following S-REITs:

4. Sabana REIT
5. FCOT
6. Suntec REIT
7. LMIR
8. Cambridge Industrial Trust
9. Cache Logistics Trust
10. Keppel REIT
11. Soilbuild REIT



Half year (2015) passive income from S-REITs: $45,626.80.

On a monthly basis, this works out to be $7,604.46 a month. The slight improvement compared to 2014 is probably due to the addition of Soilbuild REIT to my portfolio.

Although interest rates are expected to rise in the near future, it would be a mistake to think that S-REITs will all go the way of the Dodo. Remember that S-REITs might be bond-like but they are not bonds.

S-REITs are really property leasing businesses and they are more likely to do better compared to bonds in a rising interest rate environment. S-REITs are, generally speaking, still relevant instruments for income investors.

Related posts:
1. 2014 full year income from S-REITs.
2. AK says create your own Dividend Machines.

What is the right price to buy into Sabana REIT?

Last Friday, when I met up with some friends, I compared Sabana REIT with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT to exemplify what I thought are some of the characteristics of a REIT whose management's interests are more aligned with minority shareholders'.

I also made the comment that although I substantially reduced my investment in Sabana REIT starting in late 2013, there could be a time to invest in Sabana REIT again. This is because all investments are good at the right price.

I know that many are looking at Sabana REIT and thinking of buying because its unit price has fallen by quite a bit in the last one year and more. I know because many asked me, one way or another, if I am adding to my much reduced long position.

I didn't give much information but I generally said that I was not interested as I thought that the REIT's management was mediocre in ability and self-serving in motivation.

I know that there are some investors in S-REITs who use NAV as a main consideration to decide if an investment is undervalued. Trading at a 12% to 13% discount to its NAV of $1.04 per unit, Sabana REIT would look undervalued to them. 

Well, unless we can reasonably expect the REIT to divest a few properties at valuation or maybe a slight premium (dare I hope?) to valuation, it is more important to consider the REIT's distribution yield now and in the future if we are satisfied that the REIT is going to stay financially healthy.

Well, financially, Sabana REIT looks healthy enough. Gearing is at 38% with 88% of borrowings having fixed interest rates. Interest cover ratio at 4.1x is passable. They have also been active in refinancing their loans ahead of their maturities. All in cost of financing is at 4.1%.

So, what is the distribution yield? With Sabana REIT, it won't be too wrong to annualise the last quarter's DPU of 1.78c as the decline in DPU is not due to any transient reason. This means that, without any improvement in occupancy or positive rental reversions, all else remaining equal, we can expect a DPU of 7.12c in 2015. Buying at 91c a unit would give a distribution yield of some 7.82%. Is this good enough for me? I don't think so.

Hey, current occupancy is only a bit more than 90%. So, there is a lot of room for improvement, isn't there? Well, this was what the management said when they bought a half vacant building from AMD in Chai Chee many moons ago. 

I have not seen any significant improvement in occupancy since then. There is a lot more supply in the market now and asking rents are probably softening. Stiffer competition? Yes, you said it.

Since the prospects of improving occupancy are rather dim, what about retaining the REITs current tenants? We have seen how the REIT had been unable to renew all their expiring master leases in the past. Now, in 2015 this year, the REIT has a total of 11 expiring Master Leases! Take a moment and let this sink in.

What happens if the REIT is unable to renew these master leases or if they are unable to secure new takers? The properties would be converted into multi-tenanted buildings. What does this mean for shareholders? Occupancy would take a hit. Income would take a hit. Management fee would increase. Translation? DPU would probably decline.

In their presentation in January 2015, the management said:

With approximately 10 months to go before the expiry of the 11 master leases, the Manager is working towards renewing or securing new master leases for 7 of them. The remaining 4 properties will likely be converted into multi-tenanted buildings.

Source: FY2014 Presentation.

I try not to be overly optimistic or pessimistic. I try to be pragmatic.

The pragmatist in me says that it is OK to hold on to my remaining investment which I bought at a pretty low price (and are, for a while now, free of cost) during the Fiscal Cliff debacle in the USA a few years ago but to buy now at 91c a unit, it just isn't the same and in more ways than one too.

Related posts:
1. How to have peace of mind as an investor?
2. Overpaid for our investments in business trusts?
3. Sabana REIT: Weaknesses and uncertainties.

2014 full year income from S-REITs.

For my investments in S-REITs, the biggest thing that happened this year was the reduction in exposure to Sabana REIT.

Some might remember that I first invested in Sabana REIT in March 2011 at 92.5c a unit. As its unit price declined to under 90c, I bought more. It became one of my top two investments in S-REITs for about three years, delivering a distribution yield on cost of about 10% during that time.

I actually started reducing my investment in Sabana REIT in late 2013 and not this year as I started to build a larger position in Croesus Retail Trust then. I chose to reduce my investment in Sabana REIT instead of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT because I felt that the latter was doing a better job of building value for unit holders as an industrial properties S-REIT.

After the major divestment of Sabana REIT early this year, my remaining exposure to the REIT is barely 10% of what it was at its peak. Now, my top three investments in S-REITs are:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.
2. First REIT.
3. Saizen REIT.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's Mr. George Wang constantly adds to his investment in the REIT, aligning his interests with those of minority shareholders'. The management have shown themselves to be capable in creating value for unit holders in their exploitation of existing properties' plot ratios. They have also improved the financial resilience of the REIT by securing other forms of funding and in strengthening its debt maturity profile.

This year, I took part in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's rights issue and sold the rights units for a profit some time later. Although the REIT has been doing well, it is my single largest investment in the S-REITs universe and I want to keep my exposure to a level I am more comfortable with.

In January this year, I wrote a blog titled "A simple way to a double digit yielding portfolio". It was an account of my journey as an investor with First REIT, more or less. First REIT is another example of how a REIT, if properly managed, could be a very good investment for both income and growth. It is also a REIT in which the CEO constantly puts more of his own money in.

With its DPU growing while its balance sheet stays relatively strong, my blog post titled "First REIT: This one is for keeps." in March 2010 could turn out to be quite prophetic. As long as the management continues to be prudent and as long as there is stability and a gradual pace of growing prosperity in the economies of Singapore and Indonesia, the REIT should continue to deliver good results.

Saizen REIT, my third largest investment in the S-REIT universe, has been a very rewarding investment so far. It seems to be a more complicated investment in more ways than one and as an income investor, the fact that it receives income in JPY and pays its investors in S$ is something we must consider.

The weakness in the JPY is definitely a concern. Although the downside can be hedged, it is not cheap to do so. So, realistically, I would expect some decline in future income distributions in S$ terms as the BOJ continues to expand money supply. Whether Prime Minister Abe's QQE will work or not is still a matter of contention but a weaker JPY is the new reality.

However, Saizen REIT remains a strong value proposition and the fact that a substantial shareholder has been fighting to unlock its value is proof of this. I have said time and time again that patience will be rewarded for investors of Saizen REIT's. I am sure it is beginning to sound rather tired but I will say it again. Patience will be rewarded.

For both First REIT and Saizen REIT, I have not done anything to add or reduce exposure this year. I have simply sat back, relaxed and collected income from them.

So, what did I buy this year in the S-REITs universe? I nibbled at Soilbuild Business Space Trust in August. It was a nibble because I thought it was a fair price but not undervalued. I rather like the numbers and the management seem to be competent. For those who have not read my blog post on the REIT and why I decided to buy some, please see related post no. 6.

I also have investments in the following S-REITs:

A. Keppel REIT
B. Frasers Commercial Trust
C. Lippo Malls Retail Trust
D. Cambridge Industrial Trust
E. Suntec REIT
F. Cache Logistics Trust

These are largely legacy positions or what are left after I reduced my investments in these REITs in a big way. My investment in Sabana REIT should rightly join their ranks.

With income from Sabana REIT significantly reduced this year and the fact that it was one of my largest investments in S-REITs, 2014 full year income from S-REITs has reduced drastically.

Total income received from S-REITs in 2014:
S$ 88,476.22

Although this gives me some $7,373.02 of income per month, this is a more than 25% reduction from what was received in 2013 last year. This is a significant reduction, no matter how we slice it.

Some might wonder what is AK the income investor to do? Well, I have been increasing my exposure to some other investments to make up for the shortfall in income. I might have to talk to myself in another blog post regarding these investments.

Related posts:
1. 2013 full year income from S-REITs.
2. Added Croesus Retail Trust and reduced Sabana REIT.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 7 for 40.
4. A simple way to a double digit yielding portfolio.
5. Saizen REIT: Rewarding patient investors.
6. Soilbuild REIT: A nibble.

Sabana REIT: Weaknesses & uncertainties.

Sabana REIT has not shown much improvement in its quarterly results which probably shows that the leasing environment for industrial properties remains challenging and that the management made a bad decision in purchasing a half vacant high tech industrial building from AMD in Chai Chee late last year. Overall occupancy for the REIT's property portfolio inched up from 90.6% to 90.8%.

Things could get worse because 3 more master leases are expiring by end of this year while 11 master leases are expiring by end of next year. If what we saw late last year when 4 out of 5 master leases were not renewed should become the norm, Sabana REIT could see overall occupancy level declining much more and, consequently, we could see its distributable income lowering further.

Already, we know that 1 out of 3 master leases expiring this year will not be renewed.

Considering the fact that interest rates would probably be higher in future than not, when we look at REITs, we must always look at their debt level. A big chunk of debt, all $177.6 million of it, will be maturing in August 2015. That is barely a year away. We can only hope that they refinance it soon and at an interest rate that is either lower or unchanged from current level. Of course, a longer loan period would be preferred.

Gearing level is also much higher now at 37% compared to its IPO days when it was 26.5% while quarterly DPU has declined from an estimated 2.16c then to just 1.86c now. From these numbers alone, we can say that the management has not managed to grow the value of the REIT for retail investors. It is also worth noting that its interest cover ratio has been in steady decline from a very robust 7.9x to just 4.3x today.

Sabana REIT to me, now, is a picture of weaknesses and uncertainties.

1. Weakness in occupancy.

2. Weakness in making progress to fill up vacant space.

3. Weakness in DPU growth.

4. Weakness in its balance sheet.

5. Uncertainty regarding the renewal of expiring master leases.

6. Uncertainty as to whether vacant spaces will be reasonably filled soon.

7. Uncertainty as to whether higher cost of debt could be avoided.

Can the REIT overcome all its weaknesses? Well, I am hopeful that we could see some progress in filling up vacant spaces which could lead to higher income and a higher DPU. How long will it take? Well, this is one of those uncertainties I listed. It could take quite a while judging from the almost lack of progress in the last three months.

So, should it come as a surprise that Innotek Limited decided to sell their investment, amounting to 15,000,000 units in the REIT?

Of course, readers who have been following my coverage of Sabana REIT would know that I have divested some 90% of my original investment in Sabana REIT. Would I consider increasing my exposure to the REIT again?

All investments are good at the right price and for me to want to buy into Sabana REIT now, I would need a much higher distribution yield considering all the weaknesses and the uncertainties which I have listed.

This could either come about through a meaningful increase in DPU or a decrease in unit price, all else remaining equal.

Which would be more likely to happen in the next 12 to 18 months, I wonder?

See presentation slides:
Sabana REIT presentation 16 July 2014.

Related posts:
1. Innotek Limited to divest 15 million units.
2. Added more Croesus and reduced Sabana.
3. Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.
4. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014 DPU 1.88c.
"From what I can see, all four expense items are here to stay. So, even if the REIT should achieve 100% occupancy once again, it will be difficult for it to achieve a DPU that is even close to that of last quarter's."
AK, 17 April 2014.

Sabana REIT: Innotek Limited to divest 15 million units.

On 17 April 2014, I said that if we were to demand an 8% distribution yield from Sabana REIT, unit price would have to decline to 94c a unit. 

It seems that Mr. Market has been quite happy to accept a distribution yield of 7.16% or, perhaps, Mr. Market expects DPU to improve in the following months. Whatever the reason, Sabana REIT's unit price has been hovering at the level of $1.05.

For reasons I listed in the same blog post, I reduced my exposure to Sabana REIT substantially. With more master leases expiring by end of 2014, there is a chance that things could worsen and income could come under pressure.

The news that Innotek Limited which has 15,000,000 units of Sabana REIT is making a full divestment could send unit price of Sabana REIT declining in the coming weeks. 

Innotek Limited paid $1.05 a unit for this investment made in November 2010 and has benefitted from regular income distributions in the last 3.5 years.

Given Sabana REIT's rather lacklustre track record, Mr. Market should demand a greater premium in distribution yield from Sabana REIT compared to a blue-chip industrial S-REIT like A-REIT (6.1% yield) or even AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (6.95% yield).

Indeed, the premium has always been about 2% over A-REIT's yield. So, without seeing at least an 8% distribution yield for Sabana REIT, it is unlikely that I would increase exposure to the REIT. 

Offering an 8.5% distribution yield, everything else remaining equal, would probably see me dipping my toes in the water with less trepidation. 

Of course, this could either happen with unit price declining or DPU improving. Which one is going to happen first? I don't know but I do know what I will do. As usual, ask not what will happen but what will we do if something should happen.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: DPU of 1.88c.
2. Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.
"In the S-REITs department, the biggest change this year to my portfolio has to be the major divestment in Sabana REIT. My current long position in the REIT is just a bit more than 10% of my investment at its largest. Whatever I have left is free of cost and will continue to generate passive income although on a much smaller scale."

Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.

At the end of last year, I shared the results of my efforts in the stock market and also my strategy to grow wealth and augment income in the new year. Quite a few things have happened since then. So, I decided to do a review of how things have moved.

In the S-REITs department, the biggest change this year to my portfolio has to be the major divestment in Sabana REIT. My current long position in the REIT is just a bit more than 10% of my investment at its largest. Whatever I have left is free of cost and will continue to generate passive income although on a much smaller scale.

Also in the S-REITs department, I took part in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's rights issue and tried to get more excess rights but without much success. Recently, I sold a small percentage of my investment, believing that it was the right thing to do as its unit price ran up, post rights. This REIT is still my largest investment in S-REITs. Having said this, passive income received from this REIT will shrink some 15% this year, given the dilution from the recent rights issue.

In the Business Trusts department, I decided to divest completely my investment in Perennial China Retail Trust after receiving another round of income distribution which I concluded was unsustainable. This was before the takeover offer by St. James.

Also in the Business Trusts department, in late January, I more than doubled my investment in Croesus Retail Trust, believing that, trading at a discount to valuation and offering an attractive income distribution, it is a more dependable passive income generator than Perennial China Retail Trust. Although its relatively high level of gearing is a concern for some, there is unlikely to be any nasty surprises in the area of financing over the next few years.

In other stocks, I added to my long positions in Yongnam and Hock Lian Seng. Yongnam hit a rough patch, as expected. However, things are likely to improve later this year and probably the next. It is a leader in what it does and it has a very good track record. Last year's performance was exceptionally bad and probably would not be repeated. I like how Yongnam started to pay meaningful dividends in recent years and this is likely to continue, conditions permitting.

Hock Lian Seng, like Yongnam, is in the construction sector and also like Yongnam, I expect it to be a beneficiary of increased spending on infrastructure projects in the country. Already, Hock Lian Seng won two major projects which have bumped up its order book and will provide earnings visibility for some time to come. There will probably be more order wins in future. Of course, Hock Lian Seng also pays meaningful dividends which I like.

One stock which I have been waiting for an opportunity to accumulate was CapitaMalls Asia. Well, it is a pity that it will be taken private by its parent, CapitaLand, which offered $2.22 a share. I feel that it is a fair enough price which, perhaps, suggests that the price at IPO was unfair but I will let readers draw their own conclusions in this contentious issue. My acceptance form has been sent out.

A stock which I have turned more cautious on is Marco Polo Marine. Recent developments mean that the business is now somewhat different from what I envisioned it to be in my initial investment thesis. Not giving enough consideration to how the tugs and barges could be a drag on overall performance before, I decided to trim my exposure to the stock. Things could improve in future but, for now, the level of clarity has lowered.

The first few months of the year have turned out to be a bit more eventful than expected on the investment front. My war chest is now fuller through some divestments as well as dividends received. I do not have any immediate plans for the funds and I will probably just hold on to them for now. After all, I had felt that I was too much invested in the stock market and had desired a bigger cash position.

Of course, if I were to keep the status quo, I will, for sure, receive a much lower level of income from my investments in S-REITs this year. How much lower? I guess we will know by end of the year.

Having said this, my decision to increase my level of investment in SPH and NeraTel last year so that my overall portfolio is less reliant on S-REITs for passive income was pre-emptive. Enlarging investments in Hock Lian Seng and Croesus Retail Trust earlier this year has also helped to reduce reliance on S-REITs for passive income.

What next? I certainly do not know if the economy will do well or if it would suffer a decline in the next few years. However, I do know that I am staying invested as long as my investments have reasonably sturdy fundamentals and, preferably, are able to generate reasonably good income for me. They don't have to be stellar performers and I don't have a problem with getting rich slowly.

I will simply wait for Mr. Market to feel depressed enough to sell more to me at prices I cannot refuse while I collect regular dividends in the meantime.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014 DPU 1.88c.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: $1.425.
4. Perennial China Retail Trust: Fully divested.
5. Croesus Retail Trust: DPU above forecast.
6. Yongnam: DPS of 0.6c.
7. Hock Lian Seng: $221.8 million contract.
8. CapitaMalls Asia: Farewell.
9. Marco Polo Marine: Price weakness.
10. SPH: Within expectations.
11. NeraTel: A very good investment.

Sabana REIT: Should I sell at a loss?

This blog post is in reply to a reader's comment: here.

Hi Kim,

You have asked one of the most difficult questions ever. :)

I wouldn't buy at the current price because I believe that Sabana REIT should offer a bigger premium in distribution yield compared to A-REIT, for example, because of its spotty track record. So, chanting to myself a familiar mantra which is "buy at a price I would not sell at and sell at a price I would not buy at", I should sell.

Of course, if we have to make a loss in selling an investment, it becomes a bit tougher. I never like selling at a loss. Who does?

However, if selling makes sense, we should sell even if it is at a loss and it makes sense if:

1. The business fundamentals have changed for the worse and the reward for staying invested has been drastically reduced or is, in some instances, non-existent.

OR

2. We have found a better investment with stronger fundamentals and better returns.

Of course, if we believe that Sabana REIT's distributable income of 1.88c or so per unit per quarter sufficiently compensates us for being invested at the current price, then, stay invested.

Personally, I would be more comfortable with at least an 8% yield which is what I am accustomed to getting from Sabana REIT. So, a unit price of 94c, all else remaining equal, would be more enticing.

If I were holding on to a loss making position in the REIT but if it is not a big position, I will probably continue to hold on. If it is a big position, I will sleep better at night if I sell half of my investment and take the loss as a fee paid to Mr. Market. If it is a very big position, I might sell 80% of my position. I will most probably not sell everything.

Not selling everything also gives me an incentive to keep monitoring the REIT as I still like the high tech industrial buildings which form about half of the REIT's portfolio. After all, it is not as if Sabana REIT is going to do a Titanic in the next 12 months.

All investments are good at the right price and there could be a chance to buy into the REIT again with a good margin of safety.

That is an imperfect approach that gives the imperfect me peace of mind. :)

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014.

Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014 DPU 1.88c.

Although I expected a decline in DPU from Sabana REIT, the decline to 1.88c is rather drastic. Based on a unit price of $1.08, this gives us an annualised distribution yield of only 7.05%.

Remember I made an assumption in an earlier blog post on Sabana REIT regarding how Mr. Market might demand a premium in distribution yield from the REIT compared to A-REIT? At that time, I said that Mr. Market might send the unit price down to $1.03 if it should demand an 8.5% yield. In fact, it touched a low of $1.005.

With distribution yield now at 7.05%, to get to an 8% yield, unit price might fall to 94c. Well, a drastic fall in DPU might just be accompanied by a drastic fall in unit price. I am not saying that it will happen but I won't be surprised if it should happen.

If we look at the numbers, it is really the almost 400% increase in property expenses that has resulted in a huge reduction in DPU. Of course, there is also the issuance of new units in payment to the management of the REIT as well as a higher vacancy rate.

As investors, we want to know if the increase in property expenses is temporary or permanent. So, we have to look at the details. These expenses are:

(i) Property and lease management fees incurred for the Acquisition Property;

(ii) Higher property tax, maintenance, utilities and applicable land rent expense, in line with the increase of directly managed multi-tenanted properties from one in 1Q 2013 to six in 1Q 2014;

(iii) Higher property management fees in line with the higher revenue from 151 Lorong Chuan; and

(iv) Lease management fees being charged to the 15 properties acquired during IPO, following the expiry of the three-year waiver period in 4Q 2013

 

Source: 1st Quarter Financial Statement.

From what I can see, all four expense items are here to stay. So, even if the REIT should achieve 100% occupancy once again, it will be difficult for it to achieve a DPU that is even close to that of last quarter's.

The much lower DPU this quarter and a weaker outlook for industrial properties, together with my belief that the management's interests are not strongly aligned with minority unit holders', have pushed me to look into possibly making another partial divestment.

The good news? We now know what is probably a realistically sustainable DPU for Sabana REIT, everything else remaining equal. Things could worsen, of course, if the one Master Lease expiring end of 2014 is not renewed but it would be unlikely for things to worsen considerably. Having baseline information like this will help us in deciding when it could be a good time to buy into the REIT again with a greater measure of confidence.

See presentation slides: here.

Related posts:
1. 4Q 2013 results.
2. Reduced Sabana REIT.
3. Buy but remember the Sukuk.

Sabana REIT: $90 million 4% certificates.

Someone asked me what do I think of the $90 million 4% certificates due in 2018 being issued by Sabana REIT. Well, it is a good thing. Why?

Sabana REIT has $100 million of debt due this year. So, the money raised will come in handy.

OK, there is another thing good about this and that is the cost of debt which is lower than the 4.5% paid on the $80 million convertible Sukuk due in 2017. Faced with the spectre of higher interest rates now and in the future, the fact that Sabana REIT is able to issue debt with lower cost is a good sign.

In fact, if we look at Sabana REIT's all-in average borrowing cost, it has been reducing. This was from 4.4% in Dec 2011 to 4.3% in Dec 2012 to 4.1% in Dec 2013. Seems like the management is doing a good job at least in this department.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Buy but remember the Sukuk.

Helping our parents invest their money.

This blog post is inspired by what I read at Bully the Bear. The blog master is now helping his parents manage some of their savings to secure higher returns. The money would have gone into fixed deposits, otherwise. Read: Why my parents are so eager to invest.

My parents also leave money in fixed deposits which they say give them a peace of mind. Whether it is a good idea or not is, of course, open to debate. However, peace of mind is priceless. If they do not wish to put their savings in "risky" investments, I won't go against them. This also gives me a peace of mind because if the "risky" investments turned out badly and I was the one who asked them to invest, then, it would be a nightmare of epic proportions.

Photo taken when I went on a cruise with my parents.

In recent years, however, my mom saw how my investments delivered regular income and instead of being purely a market speculator, she decided to have me help her invest some of her money. She now gets more than $1,000 in passive income from stocks per month which is a nice bit of extra money for a person in her 60s.

More recently, my dad asked me if I could help him invest some of his savings as well. Of course, I have to do it. Why? He is my father. No other reason needed.

I told him that I could possibly get an 8% yield for him but the principal sum will have to be locked up for at least 5 years. That was my only condition. So, he has to be sure that it is money he will not need. At the end of the 5 year period, he will get 100% of his capital back if that is what he wants or he could stay invested.

How am I going to achieve this over the next 5 years? Honestly, all things remaining equal, with great difficulty, I suspect.

I could consider investing in the following:

1. Sabana REIT
2. Croesus Retail Trust
3. SPH
4. NeraTel
5. Hock Lian Seng

There are many things we can say about Sabana REIT but the distribution yield is rather attractive with unit price just 1c shy of $1.00 and there is a chance it could go a bit higher with an occupancy level of under 92% now. This allows ample room for improvement.

Croesus Retail Trust has retreated in price since going XD. It is now close to my entry price. This Trust is going to deliver a higher distribution yield than Sabana REIT and if things go the way I expect them to, it could do even better in future.

SPH has always been a favourite of mine as a blue chip investment for income. With the listing of SPH REIT, I like SPH more now and increased my long position in the stock last year. SPH will increasingly morph into an asset light property play even as it tries to reverse the decline in its traditional print business.

Regular readers will remember how I increased my long position in NeraTel by 10x last year in an effort to divert resources into stocks which will not be affected badly by any increase in interest rates. NeraTel is still a net cash company with strong earnings which should see meaningful improvements over time as the company sets up offices in new markets.

Hock Lian Seng is an investment I have held for a few years now. I initiated a long position in the stock shortly after its IPO. It has a strong balance sheet and rather stable earnings. It pays out about 40% of its earnings as dividends. It is one of those stocks that I almost forget I have until it is time for it to pay a dividend again.

If I were to divide my dad's money into 5 equal portions and invest in the above, I estimate that I could possibly get a yield of about 7%.

So, how am I going to deliver the estimated 8% yield?

I am going to cheat.

OMG! AK is going to cheat!

Bad AK! Bad AK!

OK, I am so ashamed of myself. You can stop reading now.

Pause.

Pause.

Pause.

Er... Still reading? You really want to know?

Let there be light!

OK, then, my plan is to keep the money that my dad is entrusting to me in my war chest. Then, I will deliver the 8% yield from my existing investments while I wait for prices to go lower before accumulating with bigger margins of safety.

There is no hurry for me to buy anything from Mr. Market. Well, maybe I could increase my investment in Croesus Retail Trust which I believe is rather attractive if 87c should be retested.

What if prices did not retrace lower but stay at current levels or go higher?

Well, anyway, I have always planned on using a good part of the income that is generated by my portfolio to support my parents when they are no longer working. So, this proposed arrangement is just a matter of utilising my passive income earlier than planned.

It will make my dad happy and that gives me a peace of mind.

Note: If anyone is wondering whether to start an investment portfolio based on the 5 securities I have highlighted in this blog post, please read the disclaimer found at the end of the page first.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. Hock Lian Seng: DPS of 1.8c.
3. Croesus Retail Trust: Luz Omori and Niz Wave I.
4. SPH: Results are within expectations.
5. Sabana REIT: Am I buying or selling?

Sabana REIT: Buy but remember the Sukuk.

In November 2013, I said that I reduced my investment in Sabana REIT and moved the funds into Croesus Retail Trust, believing that a reduction in my exposure to industrial properties in Singapore was sensible. At the time, Sabana REIT was trading at about $1.09 a unit.

Then, in January 2014, I wrote a piece saying that Sabana REIT's quarterly results were within my expectations and that trading at $1.07 a unit, we could see its unit price fall to $1.03 once the REIT went XD if Mr. Market were to demand a 2% premium over the market leader, A-REIT.

I also said that although I was not buying at $1.07, neither was I selling. The reason was because Sabana REIT's relatively low occupancy of 91.2% could improve over time. So, we could see DPU and distribution yield improving, everything else remaining equal.

How much of an improvement would we see? Well, assuming that Sabana REIT improved occupancy of its properties to 96% and that DPU improved proportionally, we could see an annualised DPU of 9.2c. This would give us a yield of some 8.6% at its NAV of $1.07 a unit.

At a price of $1.03 per unit, we are just a whisker away from a 9% yield. It would be 8.93%. This is rather attractive and at $1.02 a unit, we see a prospective distribution yield of 9.02%. $1.02 a unit also coincides with a technical support provided by Fibo retracement lines.

So, it is not surprising to see investors buying again at current prices even though, technically, I see a stronger support at 97.5c or 98c a unit. Do I really think unit price could go that low? This is just what I see in the chart as a possibility. I don't know if it would happen.

However, remember the $80 million Convertible Sukuk due on 24 September 2017? In 2012, when I blogged about this, I said that if all should be converted to new units in the REIT, they would add some 10.5% to all units in issue. This would dilute existing stakeholders' interests but the debt would disappear.

"During the financial year ended 31 December 2013, certain Converting Sukukholders had converted an aggregate principal amount of $7.5 million. As a result, the Group elected to issue 6,285,090 units at the then conversion price of $1.1933 to these Converting Sukukholders."
Source: Full year 2013 report.

The bond holders pay a higher than market price and the REIT's gearing level declines at the same time. Seems like a good deal for the REIT. Actually, it makes sense to the bondholders too as they are paid a coupon of only 4.5%. Even converting to units at $1.1933 would mean enjoying a distribution yield of some 7.3%. Of course, this is leveraged yield. So, not really comparable.

Anyway, we should not worry about what these bond holders should do. Instead, we should think about how would their actions impact us as investors in the REIT.

If all the bond holders should convert to units by 2017, be prepared for a further 8.8% dilution but the REIT's gearing would then decline to a lower 33% thereabouts. Is this a good thing?

Well, it would mean that any increase in DPU from improving occupancy level could be diluted and we might not see much of a difference from current levels. If there should be zero improvement in occupancy level, which I think unlikely, then, we could see DPU reducing to 8.08c which means a yield of 7.84% at a unit price of $1.03 which makes a unit price of 98c a unit seems less far fetched.

Of course, if the convertible bond holders decide not to convert to units anymore and wait for maturity in September 2017, then, expect the status quo, everything else remaining equal.

What the bond holders would do is anyone's guess but what are investors in the REIT to do? Well, add to long positions at $1.02 to $1.03 a unit if we like but bear in mind the convertible bond and the possible effects. Are we comfortable with it?

In my opinion, prices of $1.02 and $1.03 a unit are not bad but don't be surprised if unit price should decline to 98c. So, always have a war chest ready.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: Convertible Sukuk.
2. Added Croesus Retail Trust and reduced Sabana REIT.
3. Sabana REIT: After the 4Q 2013 results, am I buying or selling?

Sabana REIT: After the 4Q 2013 results, am I buying or selling?

Someone asked me why I didn't blog about Sabana REIT's latest results.

Answer?

There isn't much to say, really.

I did a piece on 17 October 2013 shortly after its 3Q results were released. In that blog post, there was a paragraph which said:

"Taking the DPU of 0.18c from 24 Sep to 30 Sep 13 as a guide, I estimate a DPU of 2.16c for 4Q 2013. This is a 10% reduction from 2.38c for 3Q 2013."

To find out how the estimate was made, read:
Sabana REIT: 3Q 2013 results and outlook.

Sabana REIT announced a DPU of 2.19c for 4Q 2013 which is 0.03c, some 1.38%, higher than my estimate. Not a good enough reason to bring out the lion dance troupe, perhaps, but at least it did not fall below my estimate.

The REIT is now trading at its NAV of $1.07 a unit and I would not be surprised if its unit price were to fall by a few cents upon the REIT going XD. Mr. Market is not feeling optimistic about REITs lately and Sabana REIT's performance has been disappointing.

Although it would be too optimistic to think that Sabana REIT could achieve 100% occupancy again in the near future from the current 91.2%, to think that there would be no improvement over the next 12 months would be too pessimistic.

So, if Mr. Market expects at least an 8.5% yield from Sabana REIT which is some 2% higher than what market leader Ascendas REIT gives, then, it would be reasonable to expect Sabana REIT to trade at $1.03 a unit upon going XD, annualising its current DPU.

Sabana REIT's unit price could recover in the course of the year if the management could fill up some of the vacant space and improve its DPU, everything else remaining equal.

So, although I do not see any compelling reason to add to my long position in Sabana REIT at current price, I will remain pragmatic. There is no compelling reason to reduce exposure too.

Related post:
Added more Croesus Retail Trust and reduced Sabana REIT.

Added more Croesus Retail Trust and reduced Sabana REIT.

I initiated a long position in Croesus Retail Trust earlier this month.

I recently added to this position as I believe that this Trust could do better in the years ahead.

However, I also decided not to increase the size of my investment portfolio as I am close to 75% invested which is not very comfortable for me. So, I had to do some portfolio balancing.

For a while now, I have been thinking of reducing my exposure to industrial properties in Singapore, given the concerns of oversupply.

I have investments in a few industrial properties S-REITs and my two largest are in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.

Of the two, after some thought, I decided to reduce my investment in Sabana REIT because, comparing them, I believe that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has done a better job of improving value for unit holders in the last two years.

Mr. George Wang regularly buys into AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT while in the case of Sabana REIT, the CEO has divested his direct stake completely in recent months. This gives me the impression that the insiders of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT have their interests more aligned with minority unit holders'.



508 Chai Chee Lane

Sabana REIT's recent purchase of a half vacant building in the midst of softening prospects did not inspire much confidence in Mr. Market who has shown his displeasure in the usual way. This compared with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's development of certain properties to max out plot ratios while securing tenants in advance tells a contrasting story of performance and, perhaps, competence.

Of course, Sabana REIT could still do better in future if they manage to fill up the space left vacant by the non-renewal of 4 master leases as well as the vacant space in the latest property acquired from AMD. I would be very happy if this should happen since I still retain a relatively large position in the REIT, having reduced my investment by about 24% only.

With the partial divestment of Sabana REIT, it means that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is now my largest investment in S-REITs.

Croesus Retail Trust has become a more significant investment for income in my portfolio but because it is not a REIT, my expected full year income from S-REITs in 2014 will probably see a decline, everything else remaining equal.

Related posts:
1. Croesus Retail Trust: Long position at 87c.
2. Sabana REIT: Initiated long position.

Sabana REIT: 3Q 2013 results and outlook.

Sabana REIT has announced a DPU of 2.38c which is slightly higher, year on year, but slightly lower, quarter on quarter. Some other numbers:

NAV/unit: $1.06
Aggregate leverage: 37.5%
Interest cover ratio: 5.0x

The recent decision by Sabana REIT to purchase a half vacant property from AMD generated quite a bit of concern. Although the management of the REIT suggested that they are quite confident that they would be able to find tenants to fill up the space, it remains to be seen if they could deliver.

Well, you know what they say about how it never rains but it pours? It now seems that Sabana REIT's management will have more vacant space to deal with come 25 November 2013. This is because 4 of the expiring Master Leases will not be renewed.

Now, before we go into a hysteria, the vacant space represents only 6.6% of the REIT's NLA.

As investors for income, we are really concerned with how income distributions could be impacted by all these. Realistically, we have to expect some downward revision.

Taking the DPU of 0.18c from 24 Sep to 30 Sep 13 as a guide, I estimate a DPU of 2.16c for 4Q 2013. This is a 10% reduction from 2.38c for 3Q 2013.

There is nothing rigorous in this estimate. It really is just 0.18c x 12 weeks.

If I were to instil a bit more rigor in this non-rigorous exercise, I would say the DPU could be closer to 0.18c x 7weeks + 0.168c x 5 weeks = 2.1c. This is to account for the loss of income from the 6.6% of NLA vacated through the non renewal of the 4 Master Leases mentioned earlier.

Based on the closing price of $1.10 per unit, this gives us a distribution yield of just 7.64% which brings us closer to the distribution yield offered by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT currently. It seems that Mr. Market is quite efficient. Does this mean that Mr. Market will not go into a manic depression tomorrow? Your guess is as good as mine.

There is a chance that Sabana REIT could manage some positive rental reversions with the sub-tenants and command a higher psf rental for the vacated space in 2014 relative to what the Master Leases were paying. If we are level headed, we will realise that as long as Sabana REIT achieves higher occupancy again, DPU will improve from my back of the envelope estimate. While there exist a chance that Sabana REIT might not achieve higher occupancy again, this probability is rather low.

At the current unit price of $1.10, I believe that Mr. Market has priced in the negatives. If there should be a 10% or so decline in unit price, I would consider it a mispricing which would give interested investors an opportunity to buy in for an attractive yield of about 8.5% with a possibility of some upside in 2014 thrown in.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2013 results.

Sabana REIT: Panic selling at $1.055 a unit.

Sabana REIT announced a private placement of 40,000,000 units at $1.00 each.

See announcement: here.

This will increase the number of units in issue by 6.2%. Everything remaining equal, it would dilute the DPU by about 5.84%. However, everything will not remain equal since the money raised will go towards the purchase of a new property, 508 Chai Chee Lane, which will bump up DPU. So, the reduction in DPU from the placement is ameliorated.

See announcement: here.

The fall in unit price earlier this morning to a low of $1.055 which was a decline of some 6.3% from yesterday's closing price of $1.125 was overdone.

Indeed, if expectations of positive rental reversions are realised by November 2013, at current prices (of under $1.10 a unit), Sabana REIT looks like a pretty good investment for income. We might be counting the chicks before they are hatched, of course.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2013 DPU 2.4c.

Sabana REIT: 2Q 2013 2.4c DPU.

Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.4c and will go XD on 23 July. Unit holders will be paid on 29 August.

The numbers are nothing out of the ordinary:

NAV/share: $1.06

Gearing: 37.1%

Interest cover ratio: 5.1x

Occupancy: 100%

Some people wonder why Sabana REIT is trading with such a high distribution yield. It is nearly 8%.

Well, there are many possible reasons but one reason is probably because 5 of its master leases are expiring in November this year and this is something I have blogged about since the second half of last year.

In the latest report, the management revealed that 1 of the master leases will be renewed while the other 4 are still undergoing negotiations. It has been revealed that in the event these 4 master leases are not renewed, the REIT will see a 7.3% vacancy rate. This would impact income available for distribution negatively even if temporarily.

As asking rents of industrial properties have risen over the last 3 years, I expect Sabana REIT to renew these leases with positive rental reversions if they should be successful in securing renewals. Failure to secure renewals would mean some temporary loss of income but it could be a good thing as the asking rents could be scaled higher compared to that of a master lease.

See presentation slides: here.

Motivations and methods in investing (UPDATED August 2018).

I recently started to blog about NeraTel and revealed that I increased my investment in the company. 

Someone asked me what led me to increase the size of my long position when I did since its share price shot up shortly after I made my move. 

Did I have inside information?

Well, I cannot say for sure if I did have a distant relative or two in Myanmar or not. 

Such is the reach of the Chinese diaspora. 

However, I am quite sure that I do not have the benefit of knowing anyone who might be in the know with regards to the Telco contracts awarded by the Myanmar government recently.

Indeed, increasing my investment in NeraTel had much more innocent motivations.




I have been blogging for some time about how the very low interest rates cannot persist forever and that they will one day rise. 

I have also cautioned that we should not be overly optimistic when it comes to real estate investments in Singapore and also S-REITs. 

So, what is someone who is investing for income to do?

A big portion of my investment portfolio is in income investing. 




I got into S-REITs in a big way during the GFC and bought more of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT in late 2011 when prices took a hit. 

Whenever prices took a hit, I would buy more. 

For example, I quadrupled my investment in Saizen REIT in mid 2012 when its warrants were close to expiring and its unit price plunged. 

Conditions were benign for REITs and buying more with an increased margin of safety was, well, safe.

Now, with the spectre of increasing interest rates on the horizon, the sea that is called REITs could become less placid. 

It could become choppy. 




Of course, thinking that REITs will go the way of the Dodo simply because interest rates are going to rise is ridiculous. 

However, not recognising that S-REITs will face headwinds as interest rates rise in future is myopic.

So, the 10x increase in my long position in NeraTel stems from a need to look for alternative investments which are high yielding but with a low or zero probability of being affected negatively by interest rate hikes. 

I like the comfort that comes from having a steady stream of dependable passive income and this remains my biggest motivation for investing in the stock market. 




The following graphic gives a good idea of how I think.

Source: edwardjones.com

..




My investments for income, together with my war chests, form the wide base of the pyramid. 

On top of these but smaller in total value are my investments in certain stocks for growth and income or for growth only. 

At the tip of the pyramid and also representing the smallest total value are more speculative investments which sounds like an oxymoron, doesn't it?

Certainly, like I have always said, there is more than one way to growing our wealth in the stock market and I am not trying to say otherwise by showing the above graphic. 




My methods which are by no means immutable simply reflect my motivations for investing in the stock market.

Ask what are we trying to achieve (i.e. our motivations) and we will know where our money should go. 

Use the right tools (i.e. methods).

If you have read this blog carefully, position sizing is important too.

There is nothing to say that good investors cannot have speculative positions but good investors should keep speculative positions relatively small.




Related posts:
1. Never lose money in real estate?
2. Be cautious climbing S-REIT tree.
3. CPF or SGS?
4. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?
5. For those who have paid higher prices.