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Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: A doji, another reversal signal, was formed today with price closing at $2.29 with the lowest volume in weeks.  A reversal signal again?  Dare I hope?

Golden Agriculture:  Yesterday, I said that with "both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal".  The counter went to touch a low of 59c today before closing at 60c.  MFI and OBV continue to decline and we see a sell signal on the MACD. If we look at the chart, the 20dMA has not been very reliable as a support in past instances.  I would look to the 50dMA instead this time for a strong support.  It is currently at 55c.

Saizen REIT: A black candle day as price closed at 17c on lower volume.  Likely short term profit taking.  It is quite clear from the chart that 17c was a resistance level since 22 Jan 10.  We need confirmation in the next few sessions to see if 17c is resistance turned support.  If it is, chances are that price action would be forming a new base at 17c before moving higher.  Such is the slow motion rise of Saizen REIT but the longer term MAs are rising and there is no question that the longer term uptrend is intact.

Healthway Medical: Another gravestone doji as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  This is somewhat impressive but with the 20dMA and 50dMA both completing their downturns, a move downwards to critical support at 16c looks most likely in the near term.  The MFI has also formed a lower high and this suggests that buying momentum is definitely weakening.

SPH: Reversal signal was negated as SPH formed a nice and long wickless white candle, closing at $3.94.  OBV is rising strongly as accumulation carries on.  MFI has flattened and is not overbought.  A push towards $4.00 is now looking very likely.

AusGroup: Touched a high of 64c on respectable volume but closed at 62c.  This candlestick is very bearish.  63c remains the immediate resistance.  On top of this, the MACD has a sell signal.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low.  This suggests that buying momentum is still strong.  OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet.  AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey.

Oceanus: Sell signal confirmed today on the MACD.  Price closed at 36.5c which is support provided by the 100dMA.  We will need confirmation whether this is the new support level.  If it breaks, next support is at 35c.

Genting SP: Volume shrank as price closed at 89.5c.  It would be interesting to see if it continues basing at this level or moves to test the recent low of 83.5c in time.  With MFI and Stochastics near oversold regions, I do not expect any drastic downward movement in price if news stay benign.

China Hongxing: No follow through from yesterday as price formed a black candle, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  Immediate support remains at 15c.  Fundamentally, the company has many challenges and made some bad decisions last year.  The slightest positive newsflow in such a situation might have a strong positive impact on the share price.

Some readers asked if I am vested in all the counters I cover.  I'm not.  I am not vested in the last four counters here, for example.  I do the TA for these for various other reasons.  If you happen to be vested in these counters, I hope the TA is useful to you.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

To Raelynn and Jason.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Dear Raelynn and Jason,

For some strange reason, Blogger has been acting up and some of the comments in my blog have mysteriously vanished.  I have checked with the blogmaster of Bully the Bear and it happened to him too.

Today, I received three comments for moderation but upon clicking, there were only two comments.  One went missing.  The two remaining comments are from the two of you.  To the writer of the missing comment, you might want to send in your comment again.

I clicked to publish your comments and it seems they have now gone missing.  So, I am posting in my blog to let you and other readers know that we have a problem with disappearing comments right now with Blogger.  I hope it gets resolved soon.

Raelynn,

Learning FA and TA takes time.  I am still learning and that's the honest truth.  :)  It is something that you and your partner can do together.  It's more enjoyable to have someone close to share the learning process. 

You are also right about how FA for REITs and FA for companies would look at different things.  In my reply to Jason below, you will see how I have overlooked an aspect in my analysis of Courage Marine as shipping is an industry I am new to.

As for CapitaMalls Asia, its parent is Capitaland.  We can say that CapitaMalls Asia is the parent of CapitaMalls Trust and CapitaRetail China, I suppose, or maybe it could be more accurately referred to as their sponsor?

That's all I can remember from your comment.  If I have missed anything out, please let me know.

Jason,

Yes, you are right about what is lacking in my research on Courage Marine.  I have considered current capacity and I have considered how the excess capacity has to be soaked up first and that shipping companies would not at this point in time place order for new ships but I have neglected the additional capacity that might be coming on line. 

Shipping is a new industry for me. Please, do share with us the information you have from your occupational hazard.  Much obliged.  :)


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