To Raelynn and Jason.

Dear Raelynn and Jason,

For some strange reason, Blogger has been acting up and some of the comments in my blog have mysteriously vanished.  I have checked with the blogmaster of Bully the Bear and it happened to him too.

Today, I received three comments for moderation but upon clicking, there were only two comments.  One went missing.  The two remaining comments are from the two of you.  To the writer of the missing comment, you might want to send in your comment again.

I clicked to publish your comments and it seems they have now gone missing.  So, I am posting in my blog to let you and other readers know that we have a problem with disappearing comments right now with Blogger.  I hope it gets resolved soon.

Raelynn,

Learning FA and TA takes time.  I am still learning and that's the honest truth.  :)  It is something that you and your partner can do together.  It's more enjoyable to have someone close to share the learning process. 

You are also right about how FA for REITs and FA for companies would look at different things.  In my reply to Jason below, you will see how I have overlooked an aspect in my analysis of Courage Marine as shipping is an industry I am new to.

As for CapitaMalls Asia, its parent is Capitaland.  We can say that CapitaMalls Asia is the parent of CapitaMalls Trust and CapitaRetail China, I suppose, or maybe it could be more accurately referred to as their sponsor?

That's all I can remember from your comment.  If I have missed anything out, please let me know.

Jason,

Yes, you are right about what is lacking in my research on Courage Marine.  I have considered current capacity and I have considered how the excess capacity has to be soaked up first and that shipping companies would not at this point in time place order for new ships but I have neglected the additional capacity that might be coming on line. 

Shipping is a new industry for me. Please, do share with us the information you have from your occupational hazard.  Much obliged.  :)

Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed unchanged at $2.28 after touching a high of $2.31, forming an inverted black hammer, which, by the way, is another possible reversal signal.  We have been getting many of these reversal signals and none has followed through thus far. MFI has turned down but OBV is flat.  Overall, the suggestion is that the price has found support and is currently going through a basing process.

Golden Agriculture: First black candle in many days and a spinning top at that.  With both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal.  Channel resistance is at 64c but will the price move to test this before the week is up? It could happen but, technically, it is obvious that weakness is setting in.

Saizen REIT: Volume has expanded for four days in a row with price closing at 17.5c, forming a wickless white candle, today.  The MFI has surpassed the previous high and is nowhere near overbought.  The buying momentum could strengthen.  OBV has risen sharply, suggesting heightened accumulation.  The MACD continues pulling away from the signal line on the upside, which is bullish.  The declining 50dMA has now turned up, joining the 20d, 100d and 200d MAs in cutting out ascending paths.  The Bollinger bands are just beginning to widen. A move to test the previous high at 18c seems close at hand.

Healthway Medical: Despite a rising MFI, suggesting some positive buying momentum, price action formed a gravestone doji today. Even more ominous, we see the 20dMA beginning to turn down.  MACD is moving closer towards zero.  Unless some heavy volume buy ups happen in the next two or three weeks, the 20dMA seems destined to form a dead cross with the 50dMA and the MACD would be in negative territory.  Support remains at 16c and if this breaks, we should see stronger support at 15c.

SPH: Slight reduction in volume today as the MFI turned down.  OBV is still rising as accumulation continues unabated.  However, the white spinning top formed today suggests indecision.  If this is confirmed as a reversal signal, the journey towards $4.00 would be aborted and $3.82 is the immediate support.

AusGroup:  It seems that 63c remains insurmountable for now.  Price formed a doji, closing at 62c, today.  Although MFI has formed a new high, volume has reduced slightly over a three day period.  There is still a chance of 63c being taken out but volume has to expand on renewed buying ineterest for this to happen.  If volume dwindles, a downward move towards support at 60c is more likely.

Oceanus:  Touched a high of 38c but closing at 37c, price formed a gravestone doji today.  We have a sell signal on the MACD.  Immediate support at 36.5c.  This is where we find the flat 100dMA.  Stronger support is to be found at 35c, where we see a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 200d MAs. Recap: Oceanus.

Genting SP: Touched a high of 92.5c but was resisted by the 20dMA and closed at 90c. Genting SP has emerged from its downtrend in mid March and is now moving sideways. The stochastics and MFI are both near oversold territories.  Price seems to have found support for now and further weakness is expected to be mild if news remain benign. Recap: Genting SP: Obvious downtrend.

China Hongxing: This counter broke out today unexpectedly on high volume, touching a high of 16.5c, it closed at 16c, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  If it manages to close above 16c in the next session, the upside targets are at 18c (100dMA) and 19c (200dMA).  Immediate support is provided by the upturning 20dMA at 15c.  Breaking 16c convincingly would most probably see punters coming in to push it higher towards 18c. Recap: China Hongxing: Downside target?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Price opened and closed at 22c today, forming a dragonfly doji.  This is the first time it has happened since end January 2010.  We also see a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV is up.  MFI is up.  The Bollinger bands look to be on the verge of widening and if that follows through, this counter is probably going to test the top of the base formation at 23c although, from a chart pattern perspective (where I look out for symmetry), it seems a tad early.  Indeed, the low volume seen today adds an element of caution. Recap: Charts in brief: 19 Mar 10.

LMIR: This counter has to close above a bunching of MAs which are supports turned resistance.  If price could close firmly above 49c in the next few sessions, this objective woud have been achieved.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  Stochastics is rising from the oversold region.  The rising 200dMA is at 47c and should provide support in the event of further weakness. Fundamentals remain strong and I would accumulate on weakness.  Recap: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 6 April 2010.

Comments on the US economy.

Yes, It's a V-Shaped Recovery: Risk of Double-Dip "Relatively Low", Liz Ann Sonders Says.
Posted Apr 05, 2010 10:05am EDT by Aaron Task



"I'm amazed people still say it's not a 'V'-shaped recovery, which to means they're simply not looking at the charts," says Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist.

Bear Market in Bonds Could Trigger "Melt-Up" in Stocks, Sonders Says.
Posted Apr 05, 2010 11:50am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

 

 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on the verge of 11,000 for the first time in 18 months on the back of Friday's positive jobs report and Monday's better-than-expected reports on pending home sales and ISM services, a private trade group measure of the U.S. service sector.

Charts in brief: 6 April 2010.

CapitaMalls Asia: No follow through on the reversal signals seen in earlier sessions.  This is becoming a habit for this counter. The ugly black candle formed today is on the back of lower volume and the price closed at the support provided by the 50dMA at $2.28. MFI and OBV have gone flat in the meantime.  This counter is likely to trade sideways for a while if such conditions persist. Such a consolidation period took about a month to play out from late January to late February.

Golden Agriculture: MFI and OBV continue to rise.  Positive momentum and accumulation are very much the order of the day.   Trendline resistance is at 63.5c.  If this breaks on much increased volume, price action could go parabolic like what happened in early January this year.  If this holds, a retreat to the channel support is likely.

Saizen REIT: Some sceptics I know are now convinced that Saizen REIT is a buy based on its compelling valuation. Today, Saizen REIT traded at one price and one price only, 17c.  At 9.35AM, the entire sell queue of 1,237 lots at 17c was snapped up in a single transaction.  A friend who stubbornly refused to buy any at 16.5c and was waiting at 16c for weeks has missed his chance, it would seem.  Saizen REIT's longer term uptrend is intact.  The rising 100dMA is now at 16c and the rising 200dMA is at 15c.  The MACD is beginning to pull away from the signal line on the upside and we might be witnessing the beginning of more upside to come but given Saizen REIT's slow motion rise so far, I wouldn't hold my breath.  However, I believe patience will be rewarded.

Healthway Medical: Traders are getting tired of waiting for this counter's price to move up. The excitement that surrounded the news of plans to grow the business in China and the buy calls by DMG and Partners has become a distant echo. Many have thrown up their hands in despair. Today, we see the OBV going through an obvious decline, the first since 25 March. The fact that this happened as MFI turned up is somewhat ominous. Price touched a low of 16c and closed at 16.5c on much higher volume compared to the last session. The MACD continues to approach zero and more near term weakness is likely. I will wait and see if the support at 16c holds up.

SPH: OBV is rising sharply, suggesting strong accumulation. MFI, although not overbought yet, is tapering off, suggesting that buying momentum is mellowing a bit. I maintain an eventual target of $4.00 which would probably be hit once price is able to close above $3.90 convincingly.

AusGroup: Not being able to close above resistance provided by the merged 100d and 200d MAs at 63c, price retreated to 61.5, a resistance turned support. Whether 61.5c could hold up as support will need confirmation. Good news? The pullback happened on lower volume than the buy up yesterday. If 61.5c breaks, immediate support is at 60c. Recap: Ausgroup: An update.

Related post: Charts in brief: 5 April 2010.