NOL: A white candle.

A white candle formed on NOL's chart today. For most of the day, I saw a black spinning top after its share price gapped down at the start of the day. So, the rather large buy up, after market closed, which pushed up NOL's share price to close 1c higher was somewhat surprising.

However, the white candle was formed on lower volume compared to the previous session's black candle. Share price could possibly have risen due to short covering and not because of an abundance of buyers.

The white candle also did not manage to cover even half the length of the previous day's black candle. So, a white candle is nice but it might not mean that NOL has found its base.

Share price did touch a lower low today at $1.41 while the MACD flattened. This is encouraging. If the MACD should turn up clearly in the next session or two, we would have the positive divergence which I mentioned in my previous blog post on NOL.

Now, the MACD is a lagging indicator which is the case with other momentum oscillators. So, I would use Fibo lines to help suggest where I might find stronger supports for NOL's share price in case of further weakness.

I see the golden ratios at $1.39, $1.375 and $1.36. I could possibly add to my long position at these prices if they were ever tested as the chances of a positive divergence forming are rather good.

CapitaMalls Asia: TA update.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price did not experience the kind of explosive upswing Capitaland's did in the last session. However, it looks promising too in a subdued way as volume was pretty decent as price moved up a bit.

Daily:

 Weekly:

We could see gap closed at $1.55 in time. This would probably also coincide with the declining 50dMA sometime next week. Judging from the highs in the last two rebounds, the declining 100dMA or 20wMA are the ones we should keep an eye on.

In a very strong rebound, we could see price going above the 100dMA and testing the downtrend resistance. Regular readers probably know what I would do in such a case.

NOL: TA update.

NOL has been one big disappointment. So, is this the fault of the counter? Nope. We can only be disappointed if we have expectations and when they are not met. It was a mistake and I will accept it as such.

However, downtrends are rivers of hope. NOL's share price could be overdue for a rebound. This does not mean that I think a rebound is imminent though.

Look at the daily chart and we could see the potential for a double bottom set up or a positive divergence. Wait to see if the recent low of $1.44 would be tested again. If it were to happen on much thinner volume before turning up, it would be good news for bulls. Or if a lower low in price were to be formed with a higher low on the MACD, we would have a positive divergence. In either scenario, we could have the conditions for a rebound which could test resistance provided by the declining 50dMA which coincides with the downtrend resistance.

In a downtrend, sell at resistance.

Capitaland: TA update.

What an amazing run up Capitaland's share price had in the last session. That the run up was accompanied by huge volume is good news for bulls. Short sellers were probably scrambling to cover their positions in the last session, surprised by the buying strength.

Anyone who added to their long positions or initiated one in the last few sessions would be wise to search for exit points, if they have not done so already. Why? Make no mistake, Capitaland's share price is still in a downtrend. Only if it were to break out of resistance provided by the declining 100dMA in a convincing manner could we say that the downtrend is broken.

Resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? Divest at resistance? In a downtrend, that would be conventional wisdom and something I would do.

Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

In my last blog post, I said that chances of a breakdown in price are higher. I have been proven wrong by Mr. Market, once again demonstrating the risky business of guessing Mr. Market's future movements.

Golden Agriculture's share price touched a high of 71.5c on very high volume before closing at 70.5c in the last session.

People ask me if the price could go higher? Well, only Mr. Market knows. What we know is that 68c is now support and 71.5c remains a significant resistance. Overcoming 71.5c could see price going higher and we could even see the gap closed at 76c. With such huge volume in the last session, chances are fair that this could happen. A pull back should find support at 68c.

Good luck to us all.

First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

First REIT has bought a hospital in South Korea. This has a nett property income (NPI) yield of 9% and is a yield accretive purchase. The purchase is most likely going to increase the distribution per unit (DPU) for unitholders since it will be fully funded by debt, increasing its gearing level from 13.8% to 16.4%. Expectations of a higher DPU could account for the recent strength of the REIT's unit price as it closed at 80.5c/unit in the last session.

I generally like the numbers and I also like the fact that the debt is to be a US$ denominated bank loan. Expecting the US$ to continue weakening against Asian currencies in time, I believe this to be a good idea. However, it remains to be seen if the management would be able to manage this single property so far away from S.E. Asia efficiently.

For example, the recent divestment of its single property in Japan by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was a prudent move as it could not benefit from any economies of scale having only one property in Japan and it chose to concentrate on its operations in Singapore instead. Could First REIT's latest acquisition be a bad idea in a hasty effort to expand the REIT's portfolio to the targetted $1b value? Time will tell.

Going back to dollars and cents, how much would the DPU be, post acquisition? Based on 9% NPI yield and the purchase price of S$16m, very roughly, I estimate an annual income contribution of $1.4m. The REIT currently has an annual NPI of about $60m. So, by proportion, we could see  >2% increase in DPU. The current DPU of the REIT is about 6.4c per annum. Not much to rave about but nice to have.

My investment in First REIT remains a relatively large one and it is likely to remain that way in the near future.

See presentation slides here.
See announcement here.

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Singapore industrial property market picking up!

People tell me to be careful about investing so much in industrial property S-REITs. They think it is going to experience a contraction in demand. I personally do not think so and shared my research here in my blog.

"According to Colliers International, average monthly gross rents for prime factory and warehouse spaces surged between 6 and 7 per cent on-quarter. This was the fastest quarterly growth in three years.

"But rents for all segments of prime factory and warehouse space are still below peak rates in the second half of 2008...

"Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research & Advisory of Colliers International, said rents and capital values of industrial properties are expected to grow more moderately, in the range of 10 per cent in second half of this year." Read full article here.

For AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, leases representing 4.3% of its rental income are due to expire in the financial year ending March 2012. We could see some positive rental income growth and, therefore, higher DPU, everything else remaining equal. With its properties likely to enjoy another bout of revaluation upwards, we could see its gearing level dropping as well. Good news are in the pipeline, it would seem.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

Related posts:
Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.
Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.

Worst ever NDP song!

Legal issues aside, this song is really mindless.

We are celebrating National Day! We are suppose to celebrate Singapore's achievements and vision for the future!

How does this "Fun Pack Song" fit into the picture? It is demeaning! The organising committee should be taken to task! Definitely in bad taste.

Haresh Sharma, this is a joke!

I want Newater and I want a cold drink
You and me, let's share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
You and me, let's share this treat

Puke nation!

See the video here:
http://youtu.be/aoExTn7PC2E

Hyflux secures funds of S$150m.

The Tuaspring desalination plant is part of a project expected to cost S$890 million, which the firm said it is "on track" to secure funds for this second tranche.

More fund raising exercises on the way, I think.

Related posts:
Hyflux: 6% perpetual Class A preference shares.
Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan.

Male cheerleader brings it on!

Thoroughly entertaining and somewhat disarming!

Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

"June output is expected to rise 7%-10%, from 1.74 million tons the previous month, and end-June stocks could rise by as much as 24% to 2.38 million tons." Dow Jones Newswires, July 05, 2011 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT).

The longer term fundamentals, given the strong and growing demand for the vegetable oil, are still intact. However, short term weakness could present rather strong downward pressure on prices. Therefore, I am exercising caution and not adding to my long position in Golden Agriculture. This decision is also informed by technical analysis.

If we look at Golden Agriculture's daily chart, the symmetrical triangle is quite obvious. Two thirds to its apex, we could see a movement breaking the triangle in the near future. Up or down? With price finding it hard to recapture support provided by the 200dMA, the bias is towards the downside. With the ADX indicating a lack of trend, look to the Stochastics for clues. It is turning down from the border of the overbought region. Some softness in the counter's share price would not be surprising.

A look at the weekly chart shows that the Stochastics has broken support. A weakened momentum is obvious. If price were to break the symmetrical triangle to the downside, we could see a test of support provided by the 100wMA. 61c? Could happen.

Long holders could be walking on thin ice here. Good luck.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

Capitaland: Weekly chart.

Capitaland seems to be enjoying a respite.

A quick look at the weekly chart suggests that a retest of the declining 20wMA as resistance is likely. It could happen this week or the next couple of weeks.

If I were to hazard a guess, it could be at $3.14 if it should happen as that is also where we see some resistance provided by the candlesticks. However, volume declined in the last couple of weeks. So, this brings into question whether recent strength is sustainable.

Wait and see.

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Silver: Price formed another lower high.

Staying cautious on silver has been the right thing to do. The declining 50dMA seems on track to forming a dead cross with the 100dMA in the near future with silver's price forming another lower high this week, closing the week at US$ 33.70 an ounce.

All eyes are on the 200dMA and whether silver's price could stay above this long term moving average. If the support holds up, we could see bulls coming back with a vengeance. If the support breaks, the bears could have a field day. The 200dMA is currently at US$ 31.71 an ounce.

A quick look at the weekly chart shows that the uptrend is still intact although the momentum has clearly weakened. RSI has gone under 50% which was acting as support. A lower low on the MACD is a forgone conclusion although it is currently still in positive territory.

I am maintaining the status quo. This is a time of waiting and could be a most unbearable period. A time to add to long positions would come and that is probably when the supports provided by the longer term MAs hold up. Till then, I just have to sit tight.

Related post:
Silver: Trying to find a base.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2nd AGM.

Northtech

Some readers are concerned that I am divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Is there a change in its fundamentals? Is it going down from here?

 I did blog about my reasons for partially divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. In a nutshell, I am just re-balancing my portfolio to reduce over-exposure to this REIT. It is a risk management exercise, nothing more.

 If my total portfolio size were twice or thrice as large as it is now, I would probably not reduce my investment in the REIT. I could, in fact, increase my long position in the REIT. Now, how's that for re-assurance?

 The presentation at the second AGM shows a robust set of numbers:

Earnings per unit: 2.75c
Gearing: 31.9%
Interest cover ratio: 4.9x
No debt due until October 2013.

27 Penjuru Lane



What I would like to see is the REIT increasing the share of high tech space and better quality logistics buildings in its portfolio. Currently, high tech space account for only 17.7% of its portfolio.

Although its acquisition of 27 Penjuru Lane and 29 Woodlands Industrial Park E1 (Northtech) are steps in the right direction, it has to do more and stay vigilant, looking out for more yield accretive purchases.

The management also plans to carry out asset enhancements for selected properties in the year 2012. I like this since many of the REIT's properties have yet to take advantage of their plot ratios to the maximum. So, even without further acquisitions, we could see the REIT's distributable income increasing with asset enhancements.

After two years, this REIT seems well managed by the team from AIMS and AMP Capital and my leap of faith has paid off nicely so far. I look forward to more good news in future.

Substantial shareholders:
AMP Capital Investors (Luxembourg No. 4) S.A.R.L. 15.35%
Dragon Pacific Assets Limited 11.98%
APG Algemene Pensioen Groep N.V. 9.42%
Universities Superannuation Scheme Limited 8.19%
George Wang 7.19%

See presentation slides here.

My very first blog post on the REIT in December 2009:
AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.
Balancing AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.
Mr. Market is always right.

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CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.

I divested my investment in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust last year in October. At that time, the Trust was trading at 60.5c/unit. Long regarded the investment as a mistake, the divestment was premised upon the Trust's weak fundamentals and relatively low distribution yield.

The Trust's last done price was 53.5c/unit today and its managers announced a rights issue to raise about $210.2 million in gross proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet. Each unitholder will be asked to buy 11 new CitySpring units for every 20 held at 39c per rights unit. This rights issue is, more or less, expected with a very weak balance sheet.

I have mentioned before that rights issue to fund yield accretive purchases is good for unitholders. However, a rights issue to "strengthen balance sheet" which, basically, acknowledges a weak balance sheet in the first instance is not a good deal. They are asking for money to pay down debts. So, this rights issue lowers both the DPU and distribution yield straightaway.

A unitholder with an investment of 20 lots in the Trust would end up with 31 lots if he subscribes to his entitlement. He would still get the same total quarterly income distribution in dollar terms with 31 lots as he did with 20 lots. A lower DPU and distribution yield. Definitely not a good deal.

Good luck to existing unitholders.

Related post:
CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Thoughts on divestment.

Read announcement here.

-->

Cityspring makes rights offer to raise $210.2m
Thursday, 30 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Mr. Market is always right.

I blogged about my partial divestment of Saizen REIT as price gap closed at 15c. I still retain more than 10% of my original investment in the REIT. See blog post here.

As Saizen REIT was the largest investment in my portfolio, making up some 40% of total funds invested (excluding funds in my frozen portfolio), the amount of money released was no small change. Leaving the money in the bank was not an option with interest paid on savings a paltry 0.1% per annum.

So, at the right time, I moved bulk of the funds into Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT and Sabana REIT. I blogged about these quite a bit too.

See the following blog posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Accumulate on weakness.
First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.
Sabana REIT: Bought more at 93.5c.

Another round of income distribution from all three REITs was received in the last few weeks. The unit prices of all three REITs also went up in the same time.

Today's closing prices are:
Cache Logistics Trust: 97c.
First REIT: 79c.
Sabana REIT: 94c.

What does this suggest? Investing in these REITs has been and still is the right thing to do. Mr. Market is always right.

My largest investment in a REIT now is in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. The unit price has moved up very nicely as well to 22c. So, the units I accumulated at 19.5c, 20c and 20.5c back in March are in the money too.

Recently, I have taken the opportunity to divest partially and I blogged about my reasons for doing so as well. Read it here.

Generally, I am going to hold on to these REITs for their very attractive distribution yields. I could divest some if they become overvalued (based on fundamental analysis) or overbought (based on technical analysis) or both. No reason to divest until then.

This has been another long day as I try to get used to a new routine. This is likely to continue for weeks to come. Physically and mentally exhausted, I am not in the best condition to trade the market. Being more than 80% in REITs, investing for income, is the best strategy for someone in my position now. Good luck to us all.

Related posts:
REITs lower portfolio risk.
Staying positive on S-REITs.

Saizen REIT and Sabana REIT.

Moody’s Investors Service has upgraded Saizen REIT’s corporate family rating to B1 from Caa1 following the conclusion of their rating review.

The stable outlook reflects Saizen REIT's improved liquidity and the absence of material refinancing needs in the next two years.

Read announcement here.

Sabana Real Estate Investment Management Pte. Ltd., the Manager of Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust, is pleased to announce the maiden donation of its non-Shari’ah compliant income to the Straits Times Pocket Money Fund and the Embassy of Japan for the relief and reconstruction efforts in Japan.
 
Read announcement here.

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Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

I am still bullish on the long term fundamentals of crude palm oil. The more robust demand for the vegetable oil in emerging economies, especially in China and India, will provide a floor to any correction in price.

A correction? Yes, prices do not go up in a straight line. If prices do move higher, they climb a wall of worries.

The share price of Golden Agriculture is finding it hard to move higher than 68.5c in recent sessions. If we take a look at the daily chart, it becomes clearer why this is so. 68c is where we find the merged 20d, 50d and 100d MAs.

Volume has been relatively thin and we have to bear in mind that share price is moving closer towards the apex of a symmetrical triangle. If volume does not increase with an accompanying push to move price higher, we might see support at 66c broken and price moving lower.

If price were to retest support at 66c, I could buy more shares in the company but it would be a smallish purchase in case price were to move higher. A trend is not over until it is over, after all.

In the meantime, keep an eye on the strong resistance at 68.5c. If that were to be taken out convincingly, we could see 70c next.

Related post:

Golden Agriculture: A steeper trendline resistance.

Selling shares of Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia.

I did a contra on the shares bought earlier in the week for Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia yesterday. To me, the way in which the share prices were moving higher on lowering volume did not look sustainable.

Downtrends are rivers of hope, no doubt, but I would not get too hopeful especially if the technicals hint of a weak rebound. Lock in some gains and let others take on the higher risk of holding the shares in the downtrend.

If prices should go higher, congratulate the buyers. They took on greater risk and if they were to make money in the process, they deserve it.

Capitaland:

CapitaMalls Asia:

If prices were to move higher next week to test resistance provided by the longer term MAs, I would move to cut my long positions in these two counters, bearing in mind that their downtrends are very much intact.

I cut losses if prices rebound to test resistance and not when they are moving lower.

Related post:
The long awaited technical rebound.

Balancing AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.

I have been kept busy the last couple of days. By the time I took a shower and called it a day, it was technically night since it was already past 11pm. It is the same thing today. Hopefully, I will be more settled in another week or so. Till then, I can only hope to blog more regularly.

So, what have I been doing in the stock market?

I increased my investment in Sabana REIT while reducing my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Having these REITs in equal weightage in my portfolio is an aim of mine. This is something I said I would be doing in an earlier blog post too. If you missed it, read it here. That was just last month.

At that time, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was trading at 20.5c/unit while Sabana REIT was trading at 91c/unit. Today, they are trading at 22c/unit and 93c/unit respectively. In the last few weeks which saw a bloodbath in the stock market, they have appreciated in price. How's that for resilience and, dare I say, capital gains?

More importantly, it has made the reason to balance my investments in the two REITs more compelling. A gain of 1c from 20.5c to 21.5c is a gain of 4.88%. A gain of 1.5c from 91c to 92.5 is a lesser gain of 1.65%. So, partially divesting AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and buying more units of Sabana REIT makes even more sense now (i.e. sell the former at 21.5c and buy the latter at 92.5c).

The DPU of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is 2c. With unit price increasing from 20.5c to 21.5c, it means distribution yield decreasing from 9.76% to 9.3%.

The DPU of Sabana REIT is 8.81c. With unit price increasing from 91c to 92.5c, it means distribution yield just decreasing from 9.68% to 9.52%.

See how the distribution yield of Sabana REIT is now higher than that of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT when just a few weeks ago it was lower? This is attractive to me as Sabana REIT's numbers are stronger and more of its properties are of better quality too. You can also say that the lower distribution yield of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT tipped the scales even more in favour of Sabana REIT now.

I have been putting sell orders at 22c for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT but they were, unfortunately, not filled. At 22c, its distribution yield would be 9.09% and even if I were to buy units in Sabana REIT at 93c, the distribution yield would be a more attractive 9.47%.

Finally, if you are wondering how I managed to buy any Sabana REIT units at 92.5c today when it traded at 93c, I didn't buy any today. I bought yesterday and the day before.

The long awaited technical rebound.

I keep saying that downtrends are rivers of hope and that prices do not go down in a straight line. This is quite natural but in despair and desperation, it is all too easy to give up and throw in the towel. This is capitulation.

Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia are both in downtrends. This is quite obvious. With no signs of reversals to the upside, I recently added to my long positions with the simple believe that they are very oversold and technical indicators were prime for a technical rebound.

Of course, there was no way to know if or when the technical rebound was going to take place. However, the feeling was that any further downside could be limited in case a rebound did not take place anyway.

Now that the rebound has happened, it is important not to become delusional to think that prices could continue going up to hit the old highs. With the downtrend intact, the thing to do is to sell if resistance levels are tested. The question is at what price levels do we sell at? Well, my way is to search out the resistance levels and I see $2.91 and $2.94 for Capitaland.

Wait a minute, do I not think the share price could go higher to test resistance provided by the trendline which is approximating $3.20? Well, it could, of course, but that is a long shot and, bearing in mind that I added to my long position recognising the strong downtrend the counter is in, the thing to do is to lock in gains and to reduce exposure.

What about CapitaMalls Asia? Well, I am still hopeful that its share price could do a gap cover at $1.55. However, I also recognise that we could find resistance at $1.50 to be quite significant.

Therefore, locking in gains at $1.50 would be a good idea if it were to be tested. Let's see how things turn out tomorrow.

Related posts:
Capitaland: Average buy price of $2.81.
CapitaMalls Asia: Bought at $1.37.

STI rises 1.3% to 3,053.51 at closing
Tuesday, 21 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaLand to double portfolio in China in 5 years, Lim says: Update
Tuesday, 21 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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