STI breaks 3,000 points and stays above 3,000 points!

Although I am keeping to my pledge to spend more time with my family this year, I am also blogging less frequently because work got a bit more demanding.

I might have some spare time occassionally but instead of blogging, I just feel like spending time with a book or watching some movies on my iPad.

I know that some readers are lamenting the recent paucity of blog posts in ASSI and I apologise if I have disappointed.

Anyway, let's talk about my investments. I am now between 50% to 60% invested, closer to 50% is my estimate. With the bulk of my investment for passive income, I don't really have to do very much apart from looking at quarterly reports and receiving regular passive income.

On the real estate front, I am keeping an eye on developments as, after selling my properties last year, I am on a constant lookout for developments in good locations at fair prices.

3,011.68  Up 24.27

Enough of generalities. I put on my blogging cap this evening because the stock market rallied today and broke the 3,000 mark on high volume. The bull has legs and anyone who is still staying on the side with almost 100% in cash could be feeling quite despondent now.

Personally, I experimented with partially divesting some of my investments in REITs in the hope that prices would weaken upon XD to supports so that I could accumulate on weakness. This gambit has fared poorly, unfortunately for me.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the second largest investment in my portfolio, rocketed to an intraday high of $1.10 before closing at $1.085. Fundamentally, it is still undervalued although technically, $1.10 could be a resistance to watch. The next higher resistance is at $1.125 while support is at the former resistance of $1.025.

My original plan of buying on weakness at 97c or so has to be shelved for now.

Sabana REIT, the largest investment in my portfolio, has tested its recent high of 91.5c yet again. Immediate support is at 90c. See the higher lows formed since early August 2011 while price repeatedly tested the gap resistance and gap fill at 91c and 91.5c?

Could Sabana REIT break resistance and go higher as well? My original plan to purchase more units upon retracement to stronger supports starting at 87c is also being shelved for now.

What is most satisfying about today's rally for me is the long white candle formed on the back of much higher volume for CapitaMalls Asia. The downtrend is well and truly broken. An uptrend is firmly entrenched. Notice how volume has been increasing as price rose from the bottom formed in late December last year? This rally should be durable because volume has been increasing.

Using Fibonacci lines, we see that price closed today at where the 123.6% Fibo line approximates. This is likely a weak resistance and would crumble in time. Golden ratios are at $1.70, $1.75 and $1.795. With half of my investment in the stock at $1.45 and lower, I might take some profit off the table if these ratios should be tested.

30% of my investments are between $1.60 to $1.80. The balance are at $1.80+. These, I might divest to limit losses especially if things look toppish. For now, it looks like price could go higher in the near term. Good luck to one and all.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

In July last year, I put in a buy order for shares of CapitaMalls Asia because I felt its numbers showed it to be doing well but buying when its price was still firmly in a downtrend proved to be a mistake.

More than half a year later, fundamentally, things are still looking strong while technically, the downtrend has been broken, presenting a more promising picture.

I would be rather surprised if the low of $1.12 would be tested again. Why? Breaking out of the top of a base formation, it is more likely that we would see some support at $1.38 or so in the event of a pull back. Technically, we want to buy on retracements in an uptrend. Buying at supports could prove rewarding.

Some numbers:

Gearing level: 3.9%
NTA per share grew to $1.60
Final dividend of 1.5c per share proposed.

See slides presentation: here.

With more than 50 per cent of its China malls expected to be operational this year, the mall developer said 2012 will be "an inflection point".  Source: CNA. Read article: here.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend declared.

Saizen REIT: 1H FY2012 DPU of 0.61c.

The strong JPY is a boon for Saizen REIT unitholders as it lifted distributable income in S$ terms as well as the NAV per unit.

A DPU of 0.61c has been declared for 1H FY2012 and is payable on 6 March 2012. At a unit price of 15c, this represents an annualised distribution yield of 8.1% which is not bad at all.

NAV per unit stands at 35c.

I continue to like the fact that Saizen REIT owns freehold residential properties in a country which sees a majority of its population renting the homes they stay in.

A continuing decline in rental reversions although small hints at a weak housing market and keeping the status quo, the only way DPU could grow is through cost cutting and a continuing appreciation of the JPY.

However, the management is unlikely to keep the status quo and Saizen REIT could potentially increase DPU through acquisitions using debt and internal resources. With a stronger balance sheet, it is capable of this.

Of course, we have to remember that, as of 31 December 2011, there were still 17 warrants yet to be exercised for every 100 units in issue. Once all the warrants are exercised, we have to expect a proportional drop in DPU, everything else remaining equal.

As of 31 December 2011, gearing stands at 31.33% taking into consideration cash on hand. Against the value of its investment properties alone, gearing would be 37.64%. With more warrants yet to be exercised, Saizen REIT could keep gearing level low and have the internal resources to fund a few more acquistions.

See announcement: here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Acquisitions and long term loans.

Economics 2012: Off the top of my head.

I have been doing more thinking. OK, so what's new?

In recent weeks, the stock markets rallied and with the strong closing on Wall Street last night, they look like they could move even higher next week.

The bulls say that the tide has turned and things are moving higher from here and that we should buy stocks on pull backs. The bears say that what we have seen recently is just a bear market rally from oversold positions and that stock markets will see new lows in time.

Both bulls and bears are looking into their crystal balls and coming up with reasons why they are going to be right. My own crystal ball is cloudy and I doubt it works at all.

However, drawing from what I have read in the news, it seems like the eurozone crisis is far from over. Banks in the eurozone are still trying to shore up their capital requirements and being significant lenders in Asia, accounting for some 20% of commercial loans here, negative ramifications could manifest themselves more remarkably in time. Being asked to write off huge chunks of Greek debt has made a difficult situation worse. Now, they are worried about Portugal.

Long-term interest rates of Euro countries, 1993-2011

The eurozone's unemployment rate has hit a new high and in Spain alone, unemployment stands at more than 22%. Recessionary pressure in Europe has already affected Asia as export volumes in China shrank. Smaller companies are experiencing problems with cashflow and a lack of credit. Countries here are all forecasting lower growth in 2012 with a possibility of even negative growth if the eurozone crisis should escalate.

Apparently, the ECB has been providing very low interest rate loans to eurozone banks in recent months. Instead of lending to businesses and individuals, however, the eurozone banks are parking the money in government bonds with higher interest rates. They would have to think twice about such a strategy. If they could be arm twisted into accepting a Greek debt haircut, it could happen with Portugal or even Spain and Italy, couldn't it?

The eurozone is a mess but it is an important part of the global economy. As a bloc, it is the largest trading partner for many countries here in Asia. Its problems are not its own as they will overspill and take on new forms in Asia.

Already, shipping firms are not going to do well due to excess capacity, anaemic demand and higher operating costs. I just learned that the anticipated pick up in demand from China after the holidays did not materialise and this is a cause for worry. Firms which are heavily leveraged could even go into bankruptcy if credit dries up.

Property developers are not going to do well due to government intervention in efforts to subdue runaway prices. This has both social and political considerations as well, of course. In China, the government has expressed its desire to keep measures in place as it feels that home prices should fall another 30% or so. Many investors in various guises will feel the pain and some might even die from it.

Banks have been under pressure as the very low interest rate environment affects their earnings while deteriorating macro economics could see a slow down in demand for banking services in their various forms. Already, investment banking has seen massive retrenchment exercises and it does not look like it is going to stop.

Fundamentally, I find it hard to be optimistic about 2012. Technically, I feel that the stock market could see a test of its lows once more before moving higher. I know I am sticking my neck out and putting it on a chopping block here but it is just how I feel right now.

In case you are wondering, I still believe in being pragmatic and not being bearish or bullish. Hence, although I have been divesting as the stock market rallied, I remain more than 50% invested. Yes, I still believe that 50% is a good number in such uncertain times.

People who have exited the market and are 100% in cash will see their wealth being eroded in time by higher inflation. The longer it drags on, the more detrimental it is going to be. As a prominent banker once said, it is very expensive to be in cash these days.

People who are almost fully invested in the market are shouldering a heavy risk premium too. If things should take an abrupt and powerful turn for the worse, they could lose much of their wealth in a very short time. They would also lack the resources to buy stocks on the cheap.

In the weeks prior to the current market rally, I accumulated various stocks at lower prices including the purchase of LMIR nil paid rights. As prices rose, I divested either wholely or partially to lock in gains.

As prices rose higher, I even cut some losses on some badly timed purchases months ago. As you can imagine, I have been recovering quite a bit of money from the stock market.

So, do I think this is a time to sell and not to buy? Nothing like that. I simply think it is a time to go back to being 50% invested. Since I was more than 70% invested after all the buying I did in the weeks leading to the current market rally, the thing for me to do was to sell. I might sell more next week if prices go higher.

On hindsight, which is always perfect, I started selling a bit too soon. Quite a few counters saw higher prices after I sold at what I thought were strong resistance levels. Do I chase and buy back? Nope. Why?

Buying as prices go higher is similar to selling as prices go lower. I don't do it. I buy at supports and sell at resistance. It is not a perfect strategy, surely, as supports and resistance could give way. However, going against this strategy has proven more damaging than beneficial most of the time. This is true for me, at least.

Now, with my war chest fuller, what do I intend to do? As usual, look ahead and wait for opportunities to buy again at supports. Patience is a virtue and mostly a rewarding one too.

Related posts:
Refer to right sidebar and look for the heading "Stock Market Strategies".

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