First REIT: Nil-paid rights start trading.

First REIT's nil-paid rights started its first day of trading at 22c but closed at 19.5c. This probably affected the mother share as First REIT was sold down to 70.5c. Why? Well, if we could buy the nil-paid rights at a bargain, why buy the mother share? Sell the mother share, buy the nil-paid rights and make some money on the difference.

So, if someone bought the nil-paid rights at 19.5c, including the 50c to be paid to exercise the rights, the total price is only 69.5c. Why should he pay 70.5c for the mother share?

Fundamentally, there is no compelling reason to sell below 70c as the yield is a handsome 9.14% at this price. However, if it does get sold down, I see immediate support at 69c which is where the rising 100dMA would be approximating soon. I might buy more then.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Cambridge Industrial Trust, Golden Agriculture, Healthway Medical and Sabana REIT.

I know of a few who are waiting to collect more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 21.5c. With an estimated DPU of 2.08c in 2011, it would have a yield of 9.67% at 21.5c. Very attractive.

Technically, volume has been very thin and momentum has declined. The rising 100dMA is providing support at 21.5c and I doubt that this support would be compromised.  If it does break, the next support is at 21c which is where we find the rising 200dMA approximating in the next 2 or 3 weeks. An attractive passive income generator with limited downside for me, I hope to accumulate more at supports.

Cambridge Industrial Trust's charts look bad.  Since 22 October, volume has been higher on black candle days. In recent sessions, volume spiked as price broke the support provided by the 100dMA. The REIT is experiencing a rapid downtrend.

The 20dMA completed a dead cross with the 50dMA and is on course to form another dead cross with the 100dMA. The 50dMA is beginning to turn down. The MACD continues its decline below the signal line in negative territory. Momentum is clearly negative. The OBV shows heavy distribution going on.

The preferential offering last month to existing unit holders at 53.1c was unattractive and closing at 52c today, unit holders would have lost money on those units. The rising 200dEMA should provide immediate support at 50.5c in case of continuing selling pressure.

Golden Agriculture formed a wickless white candle, closing at 77c. Could it retest its high of 78.5c?  I will wait to see if the MACD and MFI are able to form higher highs. Unless volume expands significantly, the MFI is more likely to form a lower high.

I maintain that the negative divergence is a warning of a possible pull back and it could be a strong one. So, I will remain cautious.

Healthway Medical's positive divergence is still in play and the MFI has formed a higher low and seems on track to form a higher high. Immediate resistance at 15c. Overcoming this could see price test 16c, the resistance provided by the declining 50dMA.

Sabana REIT's volume expanded today as it formed a wickless black candle to close lower at 94c, indicating that further price weakness is expected. Judging by the bearish attitude Mr. Market has towards this counter, I have decided to put in my buy queue at 92.5c, support provided by the 150% Fibo line, 50% being one of the three golden ratios.

At 92.5c and an annualised DPU of 8.63c for 2011, yield would be about 9.33%. Not too bad.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2011.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Equity fund raising again.
Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?
Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.
Healthway Medical: Support at 15c broke.
Sabana REIT: Fundamental Analysis.

Sabana REIT, Golden Agriculture, First REIT and K-Green Trust.

Sabana REIT retested its low of 96c today. To top it off, it closed at 96c. Distribution activity continues for the seventh straight session. This is quite obvious when we look at the OBV. I said before that I could consider getting some if the yield is greater than 9%. Technically, if 96c gives way, the 123.6% Fibo line is at 94.5c and the 138.2% is at 93.5c. I might buy some at those levels.

Golden Agriculture formed an inverted black hammer today, closing at 74c after moving higher in the day. This is a bearish development. I remain wary of the negative divergence between price and volume. I would like to see the uptrend support retested and that is when I might add to my position.  This is currently at 70c.

Increase exposure to upstream planters: DBS Vickers
Monday, 06 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

First REIT's trading volume has been declining as price stayed at and above the immediate support at 73.5c. The momentum oscillators are positive and the MACD is rising above the signal line in positive territory. All very nice but as volume dwindles, we have to be wary. If we had missed loading up earlier, loading up now at 73.5c carries a higher risk, technically speaking, even though the uptrend is intact.

Immediate support at 73.5c with the next support at 71.5c and this is also where we find the rising 20dMA. Looking back, this counter has a history of relying on the 20dMA for support as it moved higher. So, buying at the 20dMA is safer.

First REIT +0.7%; Ignores rights issue lodgement
Monday, 06 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

K-Green Trust broke its immediate support at $1.04 and touched a low of $1.03. Immediate resistance is now at $1.06 while we could see the low of $1 achieved on 1 July retested. All the momentum oscillators are downtrending. The declining OBV suggests continual distribution taking place. I had originally thought of buying more at $1 but I might want to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before taking action now.

Related posts:
Sabana REIT: Fundamental analysis.
Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.
First REIT: XR and fair value.
K-Green Trust: A bad investment?

Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?

Although I do not have any vested interest in Genting SP, I remain deeply interested in this highly liquid, highly volatile counter.

On 24 Nov, I mentioned that "We could see a rebound and if it does happen, resistance is at $2.10 which is where we find the 50dMA. Anyone who is thinking of reducing exposure could consider doing so here. After all, price goes down a river of hope and rarely in a straight line." In the last session, Genting SP closed at $2.09 after touching a high of $2.13.

The volume which accompanied the rise in price was not impressive. With the 20dMA poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA, there could be more downward pressure.  The white candle formed was with a long upper wick which suggests selling pressure beyond $2.09. The MACD has turned up but it is doing so in negative territory which suggests that what we have is just a rebound and not a reversal.

I have also drawn lines in orange color connecting the highs of 20 Sep and 9 Nov as well as the lows of 30 Sep and 10 Nov. Do you see a rising wedge? It seems that this pattern is valid and the downside target is at least $1.85. Of course, if the next session sees an expansion of volume as price rises up, this reading would be invalidated.