Sponsored Links

Pageviews since Dec '09.

Featured Post

Getting started in stock investing and trading.

I have met people who told me that they find it hard to learn fundamental analysis (FA) or technical analysis (TA) by reading books. Some wo...


Free "e-book" by AK

Second "e-book" by AK.

My vacation photos.

singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg Webutation

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Singapore Business

Business News

Recent Comments

Before you write to AK

I spend a lot of time replying to emails from readers, even more time than I spend blogging. So, I treat these conversations as blog posts and share what I feel is worth sharing in my blog. In doing so, I am always careful not to reveal names or email addresses, for examples, so that privacy is not compromised. I believe that such sharing will benefit many and hurt no one. I hope readers who choose to write to me agree. :)

Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: On 26 April, I said that "when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal".  The MACD has flattened today while the signal line continues to fall.  A white hammer is formed today.  This is the third reversal signal in a row. It is also the first day that price action has detached from the lower Bollinger band. Even if a reversal does not happen, this suggests that the downward momentum is weakening.  The stochastics continues to rise within the oversold region while the MFI pushes deeper into the oversold region. Mixed signals are more positive than negative in a downtrend. Immediate resistance are at $2.23 and $2.27.

Golden Agriculture: A bearish candlestick setup today as the black candle travelled half the distance down the previous day's white candle. All momentum oscillators are down.  OBV is also down. Saving grace? Reduced volume. Immediate resistance is now provided by the 20dMA at 60.5c while immediate support is still at 57.5c. Weakness is very much obvious and the counter might move to test supports before moving higher.

Courage Marine: A strong Baltic Dry Index (BDI) might be the reason for a levitation act here plus the fact that the counter is trading CD. The BDI is up almost 4% today at 3,329.  This is a boon to Courage Marine, for sure. Counter closed at 22c today, the support provided by the 20dMA.

Even though I really like the fundamentals and I like this company, the technicals are a tad weak and I would not chase it. Momentum oscillators are down.  The MACD continues to pull downwards away from the signal line. The OBV has turned down for two sessions in a row.

However, for someone who is looking for exposure to the counter, the current price should have limited downside with a cluster of supports at 20.5c to 21.5c. Any entry at this level should be considered a hedge. I won't break the piggy bank.

Genting SP: A dramatic reversal today after spotting five reversal signals in a row: black hammer, black spinning top, doji, white hammer, white hammer.  This is a good example of how a counter might have multiple reversal signals before the reversal is confirmed in the usual way.

Extremely high volume up day as two resistance levels were blown away. Next resistance levels are at 97c and $1.02. Momentum oscillators have all turned up strongly. Chances of a follow through are good. Not vested.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

A movie: Ip Man 2

I watched part 1 and I am definitely watching part 2!  I am a huge fan of Donnie Yen!!!

The US consumers are back!

There is a saying: "old habits die hard". This is why I always say what we see happening in the global economy is not just a function of economics and politics, it is also a function of culture. For any culture to change their practices, it would usually take an entire generation and the will to change has to be forceful.  Usually, this means that reality must have shifted so much as to burn an indelible mark in the psyche of its people.

Thus, we saw the Americans saving more when it looked as if their country was plunging into a bottomless pit in the midst of the global financial crisis (which, by the way, originated in the USA).  A worsening of the crisis was averted by the decisive actions of the US government.  With the spectre of prolonged hardship receding, it seems that the American consumers are back at what they do best.  This is a double edged sword, I do not doubt.  However, it is good news for the economy while it lasts.

Visa 2Q profit jumps as consumer spending rebounds

Visa posts 33 percent jump in 2nd-quarter profit as consumer spending gains strength
Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday April 28, 2010, 6:49 pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Revived consumer spending drove Visa Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter profit up 33 percent and the credit and debit card processor forecast strong revenue growth for the full year.

Visa's growth continued to lean heavily on surging debit card usage as customers still prefer paying with checking account funds rather than with credit cards. The increased fees that Visa is collecting from merchants for processing customers' payments echoes the improved sales results many companies have reported in recent weeks as consumers appear to be more confident about spending.

In the U.S., Visa said 19 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the size of those purchases in dollars rose 18 percent. In foreign markets, 20 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the value of those transactions in dollars surged 33 percent.

Chairman and CEO Joseph Saunders noted that volume growth fueled the earnings gains, but said the company is "increasingly optimistic that economic growth will gradually improve."

Read full article here.
The Bears are Wrong: "The Consumer Is RE-leveraging," Jon Markman Says
Posted Apr 26, 2010 09:34am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
The recent data is convincing; The U.S. consumer is making a comeback. New home sales jumped 27% percent in March, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 411,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. Meanwhile, durable goods orders (large manufactured products) rose the most since the 'great recession' began.

As sure as buying low and selling high is a winning formula, an American with money will purchase goods, says Marketwatch columnist and author Jon Markman. "Anybody who's bet against the American consumer over the long term has gone broke," he tells Aaron in this clip.

Related posts:
New global economic leadership.
Real estate as a hedge against inflation.

Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

STI drops 2% to 2,932.04 at closing
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top formed today on lower volume.  This is a reversal signal, again. The MACD has stopped increasing its distance from the signal line.  This suggests that the downward movement in price has slowed down somewhat in intensity. Stochastics and MFI are going deeper into oversold territory and the OBV turned down slightly.  All in, the technicals are still bearish. If the reversal signal delivers, immediate resistance are at $2.24 and $2.27, provided by the declining 20dMA and 50dMA respectively.

Golden Agriculture: Despite gapping down initially, a white candle was formed today as the counter closed at 59.5c.  However, unable to close higher than the closing price of the previous session is still rather bearish.  OBV is down. MFI is flat which suggests a lack of positive buying momentum. Initial support is still at 57.5c.

Healthway Medical: A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 15.5c. A dead cross formed as the descending 20dMA cuts the 50dMA from the top. Technically, things look grave, pardon the pun.  However, the more or less flat OBV plus the fact that the Stochastics is in the oversold region suggest that any downward movement is likely to be a slow drift rather than a crash.

Courage Marine: The MFI continues to move lower away from the overbought region.  OBV dips down slightly as the price action formed a doji today. Price touched a low of 22c for the second day in a row, supported by the rising 20dMA.  Perhaps, this counter needs to see the longer term MAs catch up with the 20dMA before its price could move higher. A correction using time, perhaps?

Saizen REIT: It is worth reminding ourselves that the longer term uptrend is intact as the descending 100wMA plays havoc with sentiments. Look at the daily chart and we see the MFI has formed a higher high and a higher low.  Buying momentum has been positive.  In fact, the MACD has turned up slightly today towards the signal line while still above zero.

16.5c is still the support to watch. 17.5c is still the resistance provided by the descending 100wMA.

In the weekly chart, it is quite clear that the OBV has been trending up which suggests that steady accumulation is happening over time. Any further weakness in price is likely to bring out more buyers, as such.

Even the 4% being earned in our CPF Special Accounts is just keeping pace with inflation by Q4 this year.  A scary thought. Bungee jumping, anyone?

Be Patient ... Big Jobs Gains Are Coming,
Chris Rupkey Says
Posted Apr 28, 2010 09:00am EDT by Heesun Wee

Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sheldon G. Adelson tells Yahoo! SEA's Ion Danker what he thinks of Resorts World Sentosa, 28 April 2010.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

Markets are going higher in time.

In a couple of earlier posts, I mentioned that I believe the bull market we are experiencing is a cyclical bull market and that we are actually still caught in a secular bear market.  This means that the previous high set in the markets would not be bested.  So, we have to be careful once markets start testing those old highs.  A quick check against the charts would tell us that we are nowhere near those highs yet.

However, since the lows of March 2009, the markets have recovered tremendously.  The much anticipated correction has been elusive thus far but it will come and it is only a matter of time.  In such a correction, it would be an opportune time to load up on quality stocks for the next leg up. 

I would advise anyone who would like to make some money in the stock market to start drawing up a list of stocks which he or she would like to own for the rest of the cyclical bull.  Then, load up during the correction.  Buy on weakness.

We should not be overly bullish or bearish.  We should not be stubbornly holding on to any position.  I believe in being a pragmatist.  Good luck!

Related posts:

"Don't Fight the Tape," Jon Markman Says:
Classic Advice That's "Very Relevant" Today
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:27pm EDT by Aaron Task

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise:
Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?
Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task

Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This counter has formed two dragonfly dojis in a row.  Look at the OBV and we see steady accumulation as steps are formed upwards. The MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  This is a REIT with strong numbers and technically, it has limited downside as well.  Still one of my favourite high yields.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white hammer! Another reversal signal! Dare I believe it? $2.12 support identified in earlier TAs was hit today.  Closing at $2.15 is actually closing at resistance.  So, if this is indeed a reversal signal, there should be confirmation tomorrow.  Let's see.

Golden Agriculture: Volume expanded on a black candle day as price closed at 60c, the support provided by the 20dMA. If this support breaks, the next support is at 57.5c. The many times tested resistance at 62.5c remains the immediate upside target.

Healthway Medical: The declining 20dMA has made contact with the 50dMA. A dead cross is imminent. Price touched a low of 15.5c, a price the counter has not seen since 3 Mar this year.  That this happened on much higher volume is ominous. MACD is under zero which suggests that the positive momentum is over. This is confirmed by the declining MFI, forming lower highs. The positives? OBV is flat which suggests a lack of accumulation AND distribution.  Stochastics shows a deeply oversold situation. So? I do not expect any crash in price but a gradual drift downwards is probable, in the absence of any positive catalyst.

China Hongxing: Much lower volume.  OBV flattened.  Price unchanged. MFI and Stochastics are still declining and seem ready to move into oversold territory.  For now, it seems that the selling pressure has abated but the technicals are definitely more negative overall. Any upside will meet with resistance at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up ever so slightly on a white candle day. It could very well have been a doji since only 2 lots were done at 23c at closing, seemingly in an effort to form a white candle. That price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band is obvious.  This usually suggests that the uptrend has lost momentum. In case the price does continue moving higher, 23.5c remains the initial resistance, followed by 25.5c and 27c.  Initial support is at 22c.

U.S. Finally Starts Dumping Citigroup
-- Smart Move, Tim Geithner!
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:30pm EDT by Henry Blodget

Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Monday, April 26, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal from the last session was negated today.  This is becoming a habit for this counter. Price closed at $2.15, a 123.6% Fibo support.  Further weakness would bring in $2.12, $2.10 and $2.07 as supports as suggested by Fibo lines.  MFI and Stochastics are firmly in oversold terrritories. MACD is still moving downwards away from the signal line.  It is my guess that when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal.

Golden Agriculture: The move up today was unconvincing.  Lower volume formed a hangman. The lack of volatility in recent sessions is obvious as the Bollinger bands begin to converge.  Price will have to move in one direction soon.  OBV shows continuing accumulation while the MFI has been exhibiting higher lows and higher highs.  MACD is above zero but is somewhat sluggish.  The leaning is towards a move upwards and any retracement should find initial support at 60c, followed by 57.5c.

Saizen REIT: Price action is trapped between the 20dMA and the 50dMA at 17c and 16.5c, respectively. Nothing exciting is happening.  OBV is flat.  MFI is declining.  Stochastics has flattened. Longer term uptrend is still intact.

Courage Marine: MFI has emerged from the overbought region. OBV is flat. MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line. All signs suggest that we are seeing weaker holders giving up their positions.  Initial support is at the 20dMA, 22c.  For the more cautious, waiting to see if the 20dMA is able to hold up is a good idea as the next support in case the 20dMA gives way is at 20c which is some way to fall.  Of course, it might be a good idea to hedge, as usual.

China Hongxing: It seems that the sell call in my last TA was spot on.  OBV down.  MFI down although not oversold yet.  MACD formed a bearish crossover with signal line and is beneath zero. Volume expanded enormously on a black candle day. The lows of 27 April and 23 June 09 which were at 12c might soon be tested if the selling momentum persists.  Any rebound in the meantime would find a cluster of resistance at 15c, 15.5c and 16c.  Not for the faint hearted.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

A movie: How to train your dragon (Part 2).

LP commented last night that he found this movie very good.  I agree.  He got to watch the 3D version.  I'm envious.  I was going to watch the 3D version but I had discount coupons and they could not be used for the 3D version.  I am so tempted to go back and watch the 3D version.  Watch the movie a second time? Why not?  I remember some of my female (and male) friends watched "Titanic" four or five times!

'Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15 million
'How to Train Your Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15M; 'Back-up Plan' finishes second
David Germain, AP Movie Writer, On Sunday April 25, 2010, 2:27 pm EDT

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- "How to Train Your Dragon" continues to breathe fire at the box office, while newer releases are mostly blowing smoke.

The DreamWorks Animation adventure took in $15 million to reclaim the No. 1 spot in its fifth weekend of release. "How to Train Your Dragon" opened in first place in late March, then dropped back into the pack. But it has held up strongly and climbed to the top again amid a flurry of so-so new releases.

The tale of a Viking youth and his pet dragon raised its total to $178 million and is on its way to becoming a $200 million hit.

Premiering weakly at No. 2 with $12.3 million was Jennifer Lopez's romantic comedy "The Back-up Plan," released by CBS Films. Another comedy, Steve Carell and Tina Fey's "Date Night" from 20th Century Fox, held up well to finish at No. 3 with $10.6 million, raising its total to $63.5 million.

Among the weekend's other newcomers, the Warner Bros. action flick "The Losers" flopped at No. 4 with $9.6 million. Disney's nature film "Oceans" had a solid opening for a documentary, coming in at No. 8 with $6 million.

"How to Train Your Dragon" nearly regained the No. 1 spot the previous weekend but wound up a close second to Lionsgate's superhero comedy "Kick-Ass." In its second weekend, "Kick-Ass" slumped to No. 5 with $9.5 million, down 52 percent from its debut, lifting its total to $34.9 million.

Read complete article here.

Related post:
A movie: How to train your dragon.

Tea with AK71: Be kind to ourselves.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

I just read an article by Wilfred Ling titled "Silent pain from an insurance agent".  You can read the article here. It is a rare peek into the life of a rookie insurance agent and his angst.

Rare indeed is it for a person to find a job he is actually interested in, grows to love and makes a comfortable living out of it. I believe that many muddle through their careers and endure hardships and even disillusionment, just like this insurance agent.

Personally, I have a simple philosophy in life: "Be happy.  As long as you are not hurting anyone while being happy, you're doing fine."  Of course, sometimes, life throws us into a hole and prevents us from being happy.  What do we do? Climb out of the hole and start afresh.

There may be some truly compassionate and altruistic beings in this world but, generally, no one will take care of us. We have to take care of ourselves. Nobody owes us a living.

If others are cruel to us, we have to love ourselves more. Do not hurt ourselves further by staying on and allowing that cruelty to continue unless there is a REALLY good reason to do so.


When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Get Going:
Maria Bartiromo on the Keys to Success
Posted Apr 23, 2010 05:01pm EDT by Tech Ticker

Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

Friday, April 23, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Revaluing the RMB.

Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if.  It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures.  However, China wants to do so at its own pace. 

The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.

When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.

China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.


Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy

April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.

Read complete article here:
Yuan gains may help China vault past Japan to be No. 2 economy.

Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem,"
FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Related posts:
New global economic leadership.

Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?

Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: The technical picture looks decidedly bearish.  OBV continues to decline as distribution continues.  MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line. MFI is hovering above the oversold region while the Stochastics is deep in the oversold region.  Price is now testing the previous low of $2.19.  Continuing downward movement should see the next support at $2.12 tested.  If price starts basing at the current level, we might see the formation of a double bottom.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji.  I still see support at the 50dMA at 56.5c and would accumulate if price descends to that level.  By next week, the rising 50dMA would be at 57c.  100dMA is at 54.5c.  Price has not been able to break 62.5c in three separate sessions in recent memory.  So, that is likely to be an important psychological resistance.  I might sell some of my remaining shares at that level, therefore.

Saizen REIT: An extreme low volume day. We have a buy signal on the MACD. MFI bounced off 50% and OBV rose slightly. All MAs are still rising.  Price is still above the 20dMA which is at 16.9c currently.  In another few sessions, the 20dMA would be at 17c.

China Hongxing: Price closed at 15c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on reduced volume.  20dMA is still rising.  50dMA is still falling.  A golden cross in the making, it seems.

Courage Marine: Volume expanded and price traded at the gap resistance of 23.5c the whole session.  MACD is rising.  OBV shows keen accumulation.  MFI pushes higher into the overbought region. 25.5c is next if 23.5c is taken out convincingly. Positive momentum is very much present.

SPH: This elephant is flying. Another strong white candle day as volume expanded with price closing at $4.12.  OBV shows unabating accumulation. $4.12 was a resistance level in June 2008 that proved too strong.  If this is taken out, price could go on to test $4.33 but before that, another resistance could be found at $4.21.  This was a support level that finally gave way in May 2008 and was not recaptured since.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

Tea with AK71: Buy me a cuppa tea?

I cannot remember who suggested that I should put a donation widget in my blog.  I remember it was during the early days of this blog.  Was the person Jason, CT or CL?  Hmmm...  Well, guess what.  I've just done it.  You will see the button on the left asking for a donation to my pocket money fund. ;-)

All donations are done securely through PayPal.  So, if you are feeling generous or if you feel that I deserve it, a small donation to buy me a cuppa tea would be nice.

Personally, I feel quite happy that I am learning so many new high tech stuff about blogs.  One more step away from being in the Jurassic Age for me, I guess.  ;-p

Heartfelt thanks to everyone who has visited and made this blog come alive!

Tea with AK71: A PDA phone?

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Nuffnang is running a HTC mobile phone campaign on my blog for a few days and this triggers something personal in my mind.

Many friends own PDA phones but I have not found the need for one myself so far.  Of course, I have been described by many as an IT dinosaur.  So, I am not a good reference, I guess.

A friend just bought a HTC mobile phone a month ago and he says that it's pretty decent and very useful. Maybe, just maybe, I should consider a PDA phone too.  Do you own a PDA mobile phone? What is your experience with it? Is a HTC good or do you think that other PDA phones are better? I would appreciate any good advice.  :-)

Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now.  This bull has legs.

Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20.  My overnight buy queue was done.  Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom?  Only time will tell.  Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA.  Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go.  So, no fresh positions for now.  Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.

China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today.  Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day.  This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.

Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c.  Eventual target is still 27c.

Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day.  This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down.  16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT.  This is a support level provided by the 50dMA.  My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.

Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support.  OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution.  MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.

NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle.  Nice.  Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50.  Eventual target is still $2.60.  A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Most of my portfolio hardly budged as the STI retreated 1.5% today.  The exceptions are the likes of CapitaMalls Asia and SPHAIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, First REIT and Saizen REIT are holding steady.  I believe that any further weakness would bring out the buyers as the problem in the USA with Goldman Sachs should not have any material impact here in Asia.  It is not a financial meltdown or anything like it.  It is a legal matter and the proceedings are domestic in nature.

CapitalMalls Asia: Closed at $2.21.  I have put in my buy queue for tomorrow at $2.20.  In the last three sessions (today inclusive), the volume has been reducing as price retreated.  Stochastics has dipped into oversold territory.  MFI is declining fast and OBV shows some distribution.  Overall, not a pretty picture.  Any purchase of shares in this company is now based on fundamentals, not technicals as expectations of a feisty reversal is out the window for now.

Golden Agriculture: Price closed at 59c, supported by the rising 20dMA.  A doji is formed.  This is, of course, a possible reversal signal.  The MACD has just completed a bearish crossover.  Further weakness will see support at 56.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  I might reload then.

Healthway Medical: >2.6m shares sold down at 16c at 5.05pm, creating a gravestone doji in the process.  This is the first time the counter has closed at 16c since 3 March 2010.  The MACD has gone under zero, suggesting an end of positive momentum.  16c remains a critical support.  If this goes, the next support is at 15c.  That would be a nice price to accumulate some.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking continues. MFI has formed a lower high but the OBV is flat, suggesting that although the buying momentum has stalled, there is no heavy selling down going on. The rising 50dMA is at 16.5c which coincides with my believe that 16.5c is the new floor for the counter and should be a strong support.  Uptrend is intact.

SPH: A big black candle day as price managed to close just 1c above $4.00.  Any further weakness will see support at $3.89 where we find the rising 20dMA.  The rising 50dMA is at $3.82.  I would accumulate on weakness.  Uptrend is intact.

Courage Marine: Down 1c, MFI is dipping out of overbought territory.  Any weakness should find support at 21.5c.  The flat 200dMA should provide support at 20c in case of further weakness.  I would accumulate on weakness as I like the fundamentals over the next few months at least.  Uptrend is intact.

China Hongxing: Closed 0.5c lower on lower volume. Signs are still good that this counter is probably prime for a breakout. Price action is now trapped between the 50dMA (15.5c) and the 20dMA (15c) in a crab-like pincer.  Going by the rising MFI and OBV since 30 March, the chances are good that price is likely to move higher.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

Avoiding the memory effect.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Human beings remember well things which are particularly unpleasant or particularly pleasant.  In short, human beings remember extremes very well.  However, as investors, we really have to stay level headed and be in tune with the present, the current reality, and not let the past shackle us.

For example, I have a friend who bought a few hundred lots of Healthway Medical's shares when it was 12.5c, if I remember correctly, last year and sold most of them at 13c or so just before the price ran up.  The investment in Healthway Medical was one premised on its relatively strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation.  However, any shareholder of the company at the time would remember the months of malaise in its price action last year and my friend divested most of his shares.  With only 100 lots left, he became reluctant to sell even as the price rose to hit the eventual technical target I identified at 19.5c shortly after.

When we spoke, he told me, "but I only have 100 lots left". I told him that he must not base his decision on the larger position he once had.  He had to make his decision on what he had then which was 100 lots.  So, the question to ask was: "if he did not have those hundreds of lots which he sold off cheap (on hindsight) and 100 lots were all he had to begin with, would he sell some, if not all, to realise some gains?"  Freed from memories of the past, the answer was a loud and clear "yes".  Never be chained down by what could have been.  Focus on the present and what is.

Similarly, I have friends who told me that they should have bought Healthway Medical shares at 10c when I first started accumulating in mid 2009.  That's the beauty of hindsight, isn't it?  These same friends also said that they should have started accumulating Saizen REIT at 10c.  The memories of the past chained them down and they could not act in the present.

I would tell anyone that I only started accumulating Saizen REIT at 13c, not 10c, and I kept on buying as its price rose. I bought more at 16.5c too.  Why?  The uptrend is intact and this has not changed.  The fundamentals are still compelling.  There is no reason for me to sell if the very reasons which compelled me to buy have not changed and are still valid.  Mind you, these reasons could be fundamental, technical or both.  I am not a purist.  I am a pragmatist.

I might have shared some of these thoughts before in some other posts.  I cannot remember but if I am repeating myself, I beg your pardon.  Please humour me.  Have a great Sunday!

Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

I visited Google Analytics just now to see how my blog is doing.  I was surprised when I found that the most viewed post is actually something I wrote in December last year when I first started this blog.  I guess I am not the only one who is interested in building a high yield portfolio.  Sweet!  Or do you prefer teh-o kosong?

Here are the top 5 posts of my blog based on the number of pageviews for the period under review (March 17 to April 16, 2010):

No. 1: High yield portfolio. 
Dated: 24 Dec 2009.

No. 2: Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Dated: 3 Apr 2010.

No. 3: Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.
Dated: 22 Feb 2010.

No. 4: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.
Dated: 17 Mar 2010.

No. 5: Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.
Dated: 24 Feb 2010.

Given the relative "youth" of the post in second place, I guess the interest in Courage Marine must be quite strong.  Good luck to all fellow shareholders. :)

Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

Friday, April 16, 2010

STI retreated today on lower volume to close at 3,007.19.  The market is digesting its gains and this is not something I would worry about for now.

China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon.  Their target price is 22c.  Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target.  So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c.  For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.


Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week.  This support is provided by the flat 50dMA.  If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c.  OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock.  So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.

Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover.  Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week.  The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time.  If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c.  These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.

Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c.  The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c.  The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume.  OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.

SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved.  Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.

Saizen REIT:  Extreme low volume day.  Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks.  There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA.  MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place.   Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support.  If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 15 April 10.
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010.  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."  Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again.  In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.

As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume.  The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April.  Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.  Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA.  Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c.  The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum.  Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout.  A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively.  Might the current setup be good for a trade?

Tea with AK71: A frog in a well.

"As I grow older and as I get to know more people and see more things, the feeling of personal insignificance increases. The growing knowledge of my ignorance is humbling.

"I am but a frog in a well, seeing only a patch of sky. I have asked myself before in the past if I would ever jump out of this well. However, over time, I have stopped asking this question. Why? I wonder if I really want to jump out of this well. I have everything I need in this well and I am protected from predators. Perhaps, what I need is just a bigger well so that I can see a larger patch of sky. Better to be a happy and healthy frog in a larger well than to be a frog freely hopping in the open and be in constant danger of being preyed upon?

"Is this a bad thing, to be contented?  Or perhaps I am just growing apathetic with age? Could it be wisdom as some told me that with age comes wisdom?  I am not so sure since my usual rejoinder is that this is not always true."

Charts in brief: 15 April 10.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Another high volume day for the STI.  The index closed hardly changed today.  Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.

CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today.  A big black candle day on higher volume.  Fundamentally, this company is very sound.  Technically, it has been rather weak.  It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March.  If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.

Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c.  Could we be looking at a correction using time?  Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up?  We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions.  MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows.  Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey.  Wait and see.  No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.

NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated.  Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session.  This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown.  Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support.  This is followed by $2.12.  A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.

Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory.  I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support).  Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.

SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04.  The upside target is now $4.20.  OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.

AusGroup:  Sell signal seen on the MACD.   MFI in overbought territory.  A pullback should find support at 63.5c.  70c is the immediate target.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

Bloggy Award