Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.

I visited Google Analytics just now to see how my blog is doing.  I was surprised when I found that the most viewed post is actually something I wrote in December last year when I first started this blog.  I guess I am not the only one who is interested in building a high yield portfolio.  Sweet!  Or do you prefer teh-o kosong?

Here are the top 5 posts of my blog based on the number of pageviews for the period under review (March 17 to April 16, 2010):

No. 1: High yield portfolio. 
Dated: 24 Dec 2009.

No. 2: Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Dated: 3 Apr 2010.

No. 3: Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.
Dated: 22 Feb 2010.

No. 4: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.
Dated: 17 Mar 2010.

No. 5: Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.
Dated: 24 Feb 2010.

Given the relative "youth" of the post in second place, I guess the interest in Courage Marine must be quite strong.  Good luck to all fellow shareholders. :)

Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

STI retreated today on lower volume to close at 3,007.19.  The market is digesting its gains and this is not something I would worry about for now.

STI down 0.5%, struggling to hold above 3,000
Friday, 16 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon.  Their target price is 22c.  Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target.  So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c.  For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.

 

Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week.  This support is provided by the flat 50dMA.  If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c.  OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock.  So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.

Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover.  Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week.  The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time.  If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c.  These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.

Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c.  The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c.  The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume.  OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.

SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved.  Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.

Saizen REIT:  Extreme low volume day.  Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks.  There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA.  MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place.   Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support.  If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 15 April 10.
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010.  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."  Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again.  In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.

As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume.  The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April.  Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.  Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA.  Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c.  The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum.  Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout.  A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively.  Might the current setup be good for a trade?

Tea with AK71: A frog in a well.

As I grow older and as I get to know more people and see more things, the feeling of personal insignificance increases. 

The growing knowledge of my ignorance is humbling.

I am but a frog in a well, seeing only a patch of sky. I have asked myself before in the past if I would ever jump out of this well. 

However, over time, I have stopped asking this question. Why? 

I wonder if I really want to jump out of this well. 

I have everything I need in this well and I am protected from predators. Perhaps, what I need is just a bigger well so that I can see a larger patch of sky. 

Better to be a happy and healthy frog in a larger well than to be a frog freely hopping in the open and be in constant danger of being preyed upon?

Is this a bad thing, to be contented?  

Or perhaps I am just growing apathetic with age? 

Could it be wisdom as some told me that with age comes wisdom?  

I am not so sure since my usual rejoinder is that this is not always true.

Charts in brief: 15 April 10.

Another high volume day for the STI.  The index closed hardly changed today.  Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.

PM Lee sees ‘good’ growth after record first quarter: Bloomberg
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today.  A big black candle day on higher volume.  Fundamentally, this company is very sound.  Technically, it has been rather weak.  It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March.  If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.

Retail sales rise a second month as economy rebounds
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c.  Could we be looking at a correction using time?  Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up?  We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions.  MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows.  Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey.  Wait and see.  No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.

NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated.  Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session.  This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown.  Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support.  This is followed by $2.12.  A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.

Singapore March container traffic up 10% from Feb
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory.  I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support).  Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.

SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04.  The upside target is now $4.20.  OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.

AusGroup:  Sell signal seen on the MACD.   MFI in overbought territory.  A pullback should find support at 63.5c.  70c is the immediate target.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

Blog's readership profile.

You might have noticed the big blue box on the right side of my blog.  In case you think it's an advertisement, it's not.  I am collecting information on my blog's readership profile.  From the latest figures, my blog receives, on average, 500 unique visitors a day but so far only 23 visitors have taken the poll since it started.  :-(

Please take a few seconds to answer three simple questions in my poll if you have not done so already. Thank you very much.  :-)

Tea with AK71: Money making.

This might be the beginning of another series like "Replies from AK71".  This time, it is "Tea with AK71".  Imagine having tea with me one afternoon, realising much to your dismay what a talkative person I am, and listening to my thoughts on myriad issues.  Small talk, that's exactly what "Tea with AK71" is going to be about.  Another side of AK71?  For sure.  Darjeeling, anyone?

"Something I say more and more as I grow older is, "we can't make all the money in the world".  It is probably something that many others say too but how many actually appreciate the essence of this simple phrase?  When I miss a money making opportunity, I would shrug my shoulders and say, "what to do?".  I do not see any point in berating myself or even making a promise that it will not happen again because I am almost sure that it will happen again. 

Picture by Montwerx.

"I always say that chasing after perfection is like chasing after a rainbow.  We can keep running towards a rainbow but will we get closer to the rainbow? The rainbow is an optical phenomenon after all.  Pretty to look at but unreachable.  Don't be too hard on ourselves. 

"I make my money and others make theirs.  We have different paths and make our money our own ways.  We can share our methods and our experience but we would probably not have the same experience. This is natural and there's nothing wrong with it."

Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

A most sterling performance by the STI today as it surged 48.14 pts to end the session at 3,019.74 on heavy volume. People vested in NOL, DBS, UOB and SembCorp, just to name a few, would have made quite a bit of money.

Singapore shares end near 2-year high on surge in 1Q GDP
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Despite an impressive 1Q 2010 report, its share price barely moved and closed up 1c at $2.30 as it went XD.  Consolidation continues.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $110.9 million for 1Q 2010, 174% higher than the $40.5 million for 1Q 2009.

CapitaMalls Asia records 1Q net earnings of $97m
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: An impressive white candle day as price shot past the recent high of $2.24 to close at $2.30 after touching a high of $2.34.  We have a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV and MFI have both turned up. With such strong momentum, it is likely to power ahead.  Closing above $2.30 convincingly would give an eventual target of $2.60.

Golden Agriculture:  Another higher low formed on the MFI. Price action formed an inverted white hammer, another reversal signal.  Signals continue to be mixed for Golden Agriculture.  Will the improving buying momentum push the price higher?  Initial support has been established at 60c.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up sharply as volume increased significantly.  Price closed up 0.5c at 22.5c, forming a long legged doji, a reversal signal, as it touched 23c, the previous high.  If the reversal signal is valid, price should find initial support at 21c.  If the chart pattern plays out (neckline at 21.5c), we should see gap resistance at 23.5c taken out and the chart pattern resistance at 25.5c tested with a possibility of a push to the eventual target of 27c.  Could we be seeing a beautiful symmetry in the making?

SPH: Volume expanded as price touched a high of $3.99, just 1c shy of the target of $4.00.  MFI has pushed deeper into overbought territory and OBV has turned up sharply.  Forming a white spinning top today as price closed at $3.97, will it push higher tomorrow?  $4.00 remains the resistance to watch.  If this is taken out, the next target is $4.20.  A retracement would find initial support at $3.84.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy signal seen on the MACD.  Price touched a high of 23c before closing at 22c on much higher volume. OBV turned up.  MFI has formed a higher low.  22c is still the resistance to watch but if price closes decisively above 22c in the near future, it would be resistance turned support.  23c is the immediate target.  Immediate support is at 21.5c.

 Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 April 10.

Charts in brief: 13 April 10.

Golden Agriculture: A black spinning top.  This is the seventh reversal signal in a row and seeing how price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band, a retracement to supports is probable: 20dMA is at 58c and 50dMA is at 56c.  MFI formed a higher low but failed to form a higher high today.  The OBV shows a lack of strength in accumulation.  Of course, as usual, an upward movement in price with high volume would negate all bearish signals.  This does not look likely.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking happening today.  17c is initial support.  If this goes, a much stronger support is at 16.5c.
Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest: 12-04-2010, Starich purchased 1,000,000 Warrants on the open market.  Mr Arnold Ip Tin Chee is one of the beneficiaries of a trust which directly own Starich. Hence, Mr Ip is deemed to be interested in the 1,000,000 warrants held by Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd in favour of Starich.

Healthway Medical:  The counter traded at one price only today, 16.5c.  The Bollinger bands are squeezing, it seems, and this usually means an increased volatility in price action is not far off.  16c remains a critical support to watch.  On the face of it, things are not looking good for this counter.

SPH: A long legged doji confirmed the black candle sell signal from the previous session.  Sell signal confirmed on the MACD as well.  Price has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands.  Support is at $3.84. 
SPH has declared an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

SPH reports 30% rise in 2Q net profit to $113m
Tuesday, 13 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Although on signifcantly reduced volume, we have another black candle today.  With MFI in the overbought region and with OBV turning down, the probability is higher for the counter to retrace to support.  I see initial support at 21c.

AusGroup: In my last TA, I said "Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so." A big black candle day today as price closed lower at 66.5c.  However, of note is the much lower volume on this pullback. The selldown has been mild.  Any further selldown would find initial support at 63.5c

Related post:
Charts in brief:12 April 10.

Charts in brief: 12 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia:  No follow through on what had seemed like a promising up day in the previous session as a wickless black candle was formed today.  It is reasonable to assume from today's action that this counter is trapped in a narrow range between $2.33 and $2.28.  When everyone finally tires of looking at the charts, this counter might just surprise on the upside.

Golden Agriculture:  A long legged doji.  This is a possible reversal signal as price does not seem able to break resistance at 62.5c.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low and OBV continues to rise.  Golden Agriculture might just try to push higher.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c this week.

Saizen REIT: Initial resistance remains at 17.5c. Volumes on down days have been relatively lower and this suggests a strong underlying support.  A retest of 18c is still very likely.  The descending 100wMA is also at 18c and this is likely to be a strong resistance.

Healthway Medical:  Today's price action dashed the hopes of stale bulls.  The counter's downward bias is re-asserting itself. Critical support remains at 16c.

SPH: Sell signal seen on the MACD.  Big black candle day as price closed at $3.94.  MFI is in overbought territory.  A pullback should find initial support at $3.84.

Courage Marine:  A premature attempt to move higher, it seems.  Price ended unchanged. Any retreat in price should find support at 21c.  I would accumulate on weakness as improving fundamentals make this counter more promising over the next few months.

AusGroup: Closed at 67.5c resistance level.  Reached a high of 69c. Next resistance is at 70c.  Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 9 April 10.

Two great minds on Greece and gold.

I found these clips of recent separate interviews with Marc Faber and Jim Rogers as they shared their views on Greece and gold.  Make good sense, as usual.

5 March 2010
Marc Faber on CNBC - Greece and gold.



26 March 2010
Jim Rogers on CNBC - Greece and gold.





Related posts:
Gold as an insurance against inflation.
Gold or silver.
Real value of gold.